FO DVOA week to week playoff odds.

[dcmissle]

You seem to be responding to a post from October 24th.

My first remark was half in jest -- but only half. The discussion here is good, yet this system right now is like the early days of the Space Program, with half the rockets blowing up or going sideways just after clearing the launch tower. That does not mean FO someday won't reach the moon, but there are a lot of refinements to come.

Ravens at 2 mid season. Lordy.

 

[amarshal2]

Definitely some odd results. What do folks think of Mia vs Det this week? According to DVOA Miami should be the heavy favorite. I believe Miami has a strong team but not anywhere near #3 in football. I say this as someone who picked Miami over SD in pick 'em last week but with Calcin coming back and generally believing that SD was overrated I think Det is stronger on a neutral field and these rankings are rather screwy. Same with Baltimore (way, way too high...worse than Miami).

 

[EricFeczko]

Definitely some odd results. What do folks think of Mia vs Det this week? According to DVOA Miami should be the heavy favorite. I believe Miami has a strong team but not anywhere near #3 in football. I say this as someone who picked Miami over SD in pick 'em last week but with Calcin coming back and generally believing that SD was overrated I think Det is stronger on a neutral field and these rankings are rather screwy. Same with Baltimore (way, way too high...worse than Miami).

Actually, Miami is one of the teams I think is underrated. Detroit's offense is a bit weaker than Miami's right now, and they've been buoyed by an easier schedule so far. DVOA may love Miami, but so does EPA and WPA.
 
The Baltimore ranking is way too high, but I think its because of two reasons: 1) an easy schedule, and 2) Only one loss was greater than a touchdown, while only one win was within two touchdowns.

 

[Devizier]

Pats have been DVOA darlings for years, to the point where folks outside here accused Schatz of putting his thumb on the scale, which would be stupid, of course.
 
Halfway through a meh year (that kicked off miserably) and DVOA suddenly not so good.
 
Adorable.

 
To be honest, DVOA sketched me out by loving the Patriots so much all those years, especially in light in the last two Superbowls.
 
They were definitely ahead of the curve on the Seahawks, though.

 

[dcmissle]

 
To be honest, DVOA sketched me out by loving the Patriots so much all those years, especially in light in the last two Superbowls.
 
They were definitely ahead of the curve on the Seahawks, though.

 
Me too, and yes.
 
Re the Pats, they had them flying high into the playoffs despite the game changing aspect of Gronk being down and other deficiencies that seemed bound to rear their heads in post-season games.  To Tom Terrific's point, it's very difficult to account for complex systems.
 
In the past, somebody would always take up the cudgel for FO and DVOA.  With the Ravens' positioning so obviously wrong, everyone is taking a pass.  And to FO's credit, they are staying true to what they have developed and have not attempted a face saving fix in their opaque black box.

 

[coremiller]

Actually, Miami is one of the teams I think is underrated. Detroit's offense is a bit weaker than Miami's right now, and they've been buoyed by an easier schedule so far. DVOA may love Miami, but so does EPA and WPA.
 
The Baltimore ranking is way too high, but I think its because of two reasons: 1) an easy schedule, and 2) Only one loss was greater than a touchdown, while only one win was within two touchdowns.

 
You do realize that DVOA adjusts for schedule strength?

 

[snowmanny]

538 ELO Ratings
 
NE=1
BAL=15
 
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/nfl-week-10-elo-ratings-and-playoff-odds/

 

[amarshal2]

Actually, Miami is one of the teams I think is underrated. Detroit's offense is a bit weaker than Miami's right now, and they've been buoyed by an easier schedule so far. DVOA may love Miami, but so does EPA and WPA.
 
The Baltimore ranking is way too high, but I think its because of two reasons: 1) an easy schedule, and 2) Only one loss was greater than a touchdown, while only one win was within two touchdowns.

Clearly miami isn't underrated at #3 unless you think they're the best team in football.

Vegas had that game at about a push with Det getting the home field bump. With Megatron returning I agree.

 

[DJnVa]

I am just flummoxed why folks get exercised by these FO's rankings.

 

It's a message board.

 

[EricFeczko]

 
You do realize that DVOA adjusts for schedule strength?

I'm aware that DVOA tries to adjust for schedule strength, which is difficult to do. Given the correlated nature of the schedule, the limited sample size, and the fact that team strength is likely non-linear, such information needs to be taken with a large pound of salt.
 
 

Clearly miami isn't underrated at #3 unless you think they're the best team in football.

Vegas had that game at about a push with Det getting the home field bump. With Megatron returning I agree.

Or if you think they might be #2 On a more serious note, I meant underrated by the mainstream media. Of course, I get most of my football news outside of ESPN, so I'm just guessing that the NFL media doesn't like Miami much; perhaps everyone agrees, which makes Miami ranked highly not surprising at all.
 
In hindsight, the early struggles of the pats may be just as related to a difficult schedule as it is to the maturation of the team. In any case, the DET-MIA game should have some useful information that will refine MIA's ranking, thanks to megatron's return.
 
Interestingly, Brian Burke's EPA model, which doesn't account for megatron, has the DET-MIA game as extremely close as well; though Miami gets a slight push.
 

In the past, somebody would always take up the cudgel for FO and DVOA.  With the Ravens' positioning so obviously wrong, everyone is taking a pass.  And to FO's credit, they are staying true to what they have developed and have not attempted a face saving fix in their opaque black box.

 
I completely agree. While many of us may take potshots at FO and DVOA for their inaccuracies, to their credit they are pretty transparent about their failures. FO impresses me because of Aaron Schatz' willingness to improve and admit failure, and not because the present system gets it right. This is something that ESPN, PFF, and others do not do.

 

 

[Super Nomario]

I completely agree. While many of us may take potshots at FO and DVOA for their inaccuracies, to their credit they are pretty transparent about their failures. FO impresses me because of Aaron Schatz' willingness to improve and admit failure, and not because the present system gets it right. This is something that ESPN, PFF, and others do not do.

Agreed re: ESPN and PFF, but I haven't found FO much better in this regard, and certainly not more transparent. Do you have examples of what you're talking about?

 

[bowiac]

I'm curious about this as well - I have found FO to be extremely lacking in transparency in particular.
 
I want to note that SRS, which is just about the simplest opponent adjusted rating system you can create, and can be calculated in about 5 minutes using excel, agrees that Miami is a good deal stronger than Detroit. Using SRS, that line should be about MIA -2.4 before adjusting for Calvin Johnson. The outlier here is ELO.
 
Is anyone familiar with anything from Schatz or anyone else showing DVOA does a better job predicting game outcomes than anyone else?

 

[Devizier]

Elo, like the chess ratings? The lo should be lowercase (it's someone's name).

 

[coremiller]

I'm curious about this as well - I have found FO to be extremely lacking in transparency in particular.
 
I want to note that SRS, which is just about the simplest opponent adjusted rating system you can create, and can be calculated in about 5 minutes using excel, agrees that Miami is a good deal stronger than Detroit. Using SRS, that line should be about MIA -2.4 before adjusting for Calvin Johnson. The outlier here is ELO.
 
Is anyone familiar with anything from Schatz or anyone else showing DVOA does a better job predicting game outcomes than anyone else?

The most recent version of the Football Outsiders Almanac provides the following correlation coefficients:

Correlation of various stats to wins, 2000-2011:

Points Scored/allowed: .917
DVOA: .856
Yards gained/allowed: .694
Yards gained/allowed per play: .728

Correlation of various stats to wins following year, 2000-2011:

DVOA: .379
Point differential: .329
Pythagorean wins: .324
Yards per play differential: .313
Wins: .290
Yardage differential: .286

 

[bowiac]

Elo, like the chess ratings? The lo should be lowercase (it's someone's name).

Yes, Elo like the chess ratings, and centered like chess ratings (which is extremely unhelpful).

 

[bowiac]

The most recent version of the Football Outsiders Almanac provides the following correlation coefficients:

Correlation of various stats to wins, 2000-2011:

Points Scored/allowed: .917
DVOA: .856
Yards gained/allowed: .694
Yards gained/allowed per play: .728

Correlation of various stats to wins following year, 2000-2011:

DVOA: .379
Point differential: .329
Pythagorean wins: .324
Yards per play differential: .313
Wins: .290
Yardage differential: .286

Thanks for this. I have a spreadsheet already set up prepared for this analysis, so I re-ran it for 2008-2012 (predicting 2009-2013 wins). Only five seasons, but:
 
DVOA: .406
SRS: .413
Offensive only SRS: .414
Margin of Victory: .398
Vegas Over/Under .518
EPA: .343
 
The various PFF stats were all below .300. Adjusted Games Lost was -.129 (i.e., low, but negative correlation).
 
I'll expand this to more seasons when I get a chance, but I'm very curious about whether DVOA is doing anything better than SRS. This quick glance suggests "no".

 

[EricFeczko]

Thanks for this. I have a spreadsheet already set up prepared for this analysis, so I re-ran it for 2008-2012 (predicting 2009-2013 wins). Only five seasons, but:
 
DVOA: .406
SRS: .413
Offensive only SRS: .414
Margin of Victory: .398
Vegas Over/Under .518
EPA: .343
 
The various PFF stats were all below .300. Adjusted Games Lost was -.129 (i.e., low, but negative correlation).
 
I'll expand this to more seasons when I get a chance, but I'm very curious about whether DVOA is doing anything better than SRS. This quick glance suggests "no".

While informative for other reasons, I'm not sure this analysis answers the question. Just because the same amount of variance is explained by SRS and DVOA doesn't mean that the variance explained is the same in both cases.
You could try a stepwise linear regression to see whether DVOA and SRS combined do a better job than either one separately.

 

[bowiac]

While informative for other reasons, I'm not sure this analysis answers the question. Just because the same amount of variance is explained by SRS and DVOA doesn't mean that the variance explained is the same in both cases.
You could try a stepwise linear regression to see whether DVOA and SRS combined do a better job than either one separately.

Yes - I've done this, and they're absolutely not redundant. This is also the basis of my belief that PFF data (low overall correlation), is value added. It adds to the out of sample predictive power of the model. So is adjusted games lost. I haven't been able to get any utility out of EPA on the other hand.
 
My point is really that unless you're doing this sort of regression, DVOA isn't producing more predictive power by itself than SRS is however.

 

[Briz]

Through Week 10:  http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds
 
Pats projected to have 10.7 wins (-0.1), win the division 69% (+10%) of the time and make the playoffs 79% (+1.1%).  30% of the time they get a bye. 
 
[tablegrid= FO Playoff odds through week 10 ]AFC East               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE NE 12.70% 10.7 68.90% 29.80% 10.40% 79.30% 1.10% MIA 16.60% 9.2 22.60% 5.00% 18.60% 41.20% -14.60% BUF 5.20% 8.4 8.50% 2.80% 9.80% 18.30% -10.10% NYJ -12.30% 4.2 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%                 AFC North               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE BAL 23.70% 9.9 41.90% 21.10% 22.60% 64.60% 11.10% PIT 9.70% 9.5 33.30% 5.40% 20.00% 53.30% -11.10% CLE -1.00% 9.4 18.50% 10.70% 23.20% 41.60% 24.50% CIN -7.40% 7.6 6.30% 1.50% 8.50% 14.80% -26.10%                 AFC South               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE IND 14.50% 10.6 97.80% 37.40% 0.20% 98.00% 0.10% HOU -12.00% 7.3 2.20% 0.20% 3.20% 5.40% 0.90% TEN -19.00% 4.8 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -0.20% JAC -24.30% 3.2 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%                 AFC West               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE DEN 36.20% 11.8 77.30% 70.80% 18.60% 95.90% 4.20% KC 13.50% 10.1 21.50% 14.90% 52.60% 74.10% 19.70% SD -3.00% 8.2 1.20% 0.40% 12.40% 13.60% 0.40% OAK -21.10% 2.3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%                 NFC East               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE PHI 21.00% 11.2 73.20% 42.90% 12.70% 85.90% -0.50% DAL 6.70% 9.9 26.20% 15.90% 31.90% 58.10% -0.40% NYG -5.50% 6.6 0.40% 0.00% 0.60% 1.00% -2.60% WAS -9.60% 6.3 0.20% 0.00% 0.50% 0.60% -1.20%                 NFC North               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE DET 10.50% 11.2 60.70% 44.70% 29.30% 90.10% 8.00% GB 21.30% 10.4 39.00% 25.90% 35.20% 74.30% -2.70% MIN -14.10% 7.1 0.20% 0.00% 1.40% 1.60% -1.10% CHI -18.60% 6.2 0.00% 0.00% 0.80% 0.90% -6.10%                 NFC South               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE NO 8.80% 8.3 77.30% 0.50% 0.00% 77.30% -5.70% ATL -4.50% 6.4 15.30% 0.00% 0.10% 15.40% 8.80% CAR -23.80% 5.5 7.40% 0.00% 0.00% 7.40% -3.80% TB -35.50% 3.2 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -0.10%                 NFC West               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE ARI 2.80% 11.3 67.70% 56.80% 25.90% 93.70% -0.30% SEA 19.40% 10.1 27.10% 11.80% 40.80% 67.90% -2.80% SF -0.10% 8.6 5.10% 1.20% 20.50% 25.70% 11.70% STL -17.40% 5.8 0.00% 0.00% 0.20% 0.20% -1.10%  [/tablegrid]
 
Seeds based on projected wins:
 
AFC
1) Den (11.8 wins)
2) NE (10.7 wins)
3) Indy (10.6 wins)
4) Balt (9.9 wins)
5) KC (10.1 wins)
6) Pit (9.5 wins)
 
NFC
1) Ari (11.3 wins)
2 and 3) Phi and Det (11.2 wins)
4) NO (8.3 wins)
5) GB (10.4 wins)
6) Sea (10.1 wins)

 

[Briz]

FO's DVOA rankings:  http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2014/week-10-dvoa-ratings
 
[tablegrid= Week 10 DVOA summary of the top 16 teams ] TEAM TOTAL LAST WEIGHTED RANK OFFENSE OFF. DEFENSE DEF. S.T. S.T.     DVOA WEEK DVOA   DVOA RANK DVOA RANK DVOA RANK 1 DEN 37.3% 1 36.2% 1 23.4% 1 -17.7% 2 -3.80% 25 2 BAL 23.0% 2 23.7% 2 8.2% 12 -6.4% 9 8.40% 2 3 GB 21.3% 5 21.3% 3 20.6% 2 -0.7% 11 0.00% 15 4 SEA 20.7% 4 19.4% 5 13.1% 5 -9.9% 7 -2.30% 23 5 PHI 19.9% 6 21.0% 4 -1.2% 17 -10.6% 6 10.50% 1 6 MIA 15.5% 3 16.6% 6 4.1% 13 -16.0% 3 -4.60% 27 7 IND 13.0% 8 14.5% 7 11.0% 8 3.6% 18 5.60% 5 8 NE 13.0% 7 12.7% 9 10.5% 9 4.7% 22 7.10% 3 9 DET 10.6% 12 10.5% 10 -6.5% 22 -24.6% 1 -7.50% 32 10 KC 10.4% 10 13.5% 8 8.3% 11 1.4% 16 3.50% 8 11 PIT 8.6% 9 9.7% 11 17.3% 3 7.6% 25 -1.10% 19 12 NO 6.8% 11 8.8% 12 13.6% 4 8.3% 26 1.40% 12 13 BUF 6.3% 14 5.2% 14 -14.5% 27 -14.6% 4 6.20% 4 14 DAL 6.2% 15 6.7% 13 11.4% 6 3.8% 19 -1.40% 21 15 ARI 3.3% 16 2.8% 15 -10.2% 25 -13.2% 5 0.40% 13 16 SF 0.4% 20 -0.1% 16 -4.3% 20 -9.7% 8 -5.00% 28  [/tablegrid]
 
 

 

[Briz]

The table below summarizes the odds for a team getting a particular seed based on FO's numbers.  I ordered the teams by projected wins.
 
[tablegrid= FO's odds for seedings through week 10 ]AFC                   Team W-L WEI DVOA Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DEN  7-2 36.2% 11.8 56.8% 14.1% 5.1% 1.4% 14.3% 4.4% NE  7-2 12.7% 10.7 9.8% 20.0% 21.0% 18.1% 4.7% 5.7% IND  6-3 14.5% 10.6 11.0% 26.4% 25.7% 34.7% 0.0% 0.1% KC  6-3 13.5% 10.1 8.0% 6.9% 4.4% 2.2% 37.1% 15.5% BAL  6-4 23.7% 9.9 7.1% 14.0% 13.8% 7.1% 9.3% 13.3% PIT  6-4 9.7% 9.5 0.8% 4.6% 11.0% 16.9% 8.6% 11.4% CLE  6-3 -1.0% 9.4 4.0% 6.7% 5.5% 2.3% 8.8% 14.4% MIA  5-4 16.6% 9.2 1.1% 3.9% 7.5% 10.2% 6.6% 12.0% BUF  5-4 5.2% 8.4 0.8% 2.0% 2.9% 2.8% 3.1% 6.7% SD  5-4 -3.0% 8.2 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 4.3% 8.1% CIN  5-3-1 -7.4% 7.6 0.3% 1.1% 2.3% 2.6% 2.6% 5.8%                     NFC                   Team   WEI DVOA Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 ARI  8-1   2.8% 11.3 38.3% 18.5% 10.7% 0.2% 16.0% 9.9% PHI  7-2 21.0% 11.2 17.6% 25.3% 28.3% 2.0% 5.5% 7.2% DET  7-2 10.5% 11.2 23.2% 21.5% 15.8% 0.2% 17.4% 11.9% GB  6-3 21.3% 10.4 11.3% 14.7% 12.8% 0.3% 17.1% 18.2% SEA  6-3 19.4% 10.1 3.9% 8.0% 14.3% 1.0% 21.1% 19.7% DAL  7-3 6.7% 9.9 5.6% 10.4% 10.0% 0.3% 14.1% 17.8% SF  5-4 -0.1% 8.6 0.2% 1.1% 3.5% 0.4% 8.2% 12.3% NO  4-5 8.8% 8.3 0.0% 0.5% 3.8% 73.0% 0.0% 0.0% ATL  3-6 -4.5% 6.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 15.0% 0.0% 0.1%  [/tablegrid] 

 

[Briz]

Through week 10:  http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/week-11-nfl-elo-ratings-and-playoff-odds/
 

 
I will start including to provide another perspective.  
 
By Elo Ratings
1) NE (1677)
2) Den (1676)
3) Sea (1655)
4) Ari (1642)
5) SF (1608)
 
Playoff seedings by projected wins:
 
AFC
1) Denver (12.0)
2) NE (11.8)
3) Indy (10.8)
4) Balt (9.6)
5) KC (10.1)
6) Pitt (9.4)
 
NFC
1) Ari (12.2)
2) Phi (11.2)
3) Det (10.8)
4) NO (8.6)
5) Dal (10.3)
6) GB (10.2)
 
Note that both Ari and Det have a lower Elo rating than another team in their division (Sea and GB, respectively).  In fact, Seattle with the 3rd best Elo is just barely on the outside looking in for the playoffs according to projected wins.  Indicates the strength of the NFC west according to this model.
 
Another neat graphic in that article:
 

 
If a team is in the NFC south, 8 wins may win the division.  The rest of the divisions require 10+ with the AFC and NFC West potentially requiring 12.

 

[tims4wins]

Pats jumped again, from 10.7 wins to 11.5 wins, from 79.2% to 90.5% to make it, from 9.8% for the 1 seed to 31.9%, and from 29.8% of a bye to 59.8%.
 
I'd say that was a pretty big win.

 

[dcmissle]

Yes.  But what say DVOA?

 

[Briz]

Bit slow this week, my bad.  Here is the results through week 11:  http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds
 
Pats now make the playoffs in 91% of the sims, win the divionsion in 77% of the sims and earn a bye in 60% of the Sims.  
 
[tablegrid= FO DVOA Playoff odds through week 11 ]AFC East               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE NE 20.60% 11.5 76.9% 59.8% 13.6% 90.5% 11.2% MIA 22.10% 9.6 20.9% 10.1% 28.9% 49.8% 8.6% BUF 5.90% 8.1 2.2% 1.0% 4.8% 7.0% -11.3% NYJ -10.70% 4.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%                 AFC North               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE BAL 23.30% 9.9 33.9% 19.2% 23.6% 57.5% -7.0% PIT 6.90% 9.8 42.6% 7.7% 15.8% 58.4% 5.1% CIN -2.90% 8.6 18.0% 5.8% 14.1% 32.1% 17.3% CLE -4.60% 8.6 5.6% 2.7% 10.8% 16.3% -25.3%                 AFC South               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE IND 5.30% 9.7 87.8% 13.3% 0.4% 88.2% -9.8% HOU -7.90% 8.1 12.2% 1.0% 4.3% 16.4% 11.1% TEN -15.70% 4.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% JAC -24.60% 3.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%                 AFC West               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE DEN 30.40% 10.9 51.2% 42.7% 34.4% 85.6% -10.3% KC 20.00% 10.8 47.4% 36.3% 40.2% 87.6% 13.5% SD -3.80% 8.3 1.4% 0.5% 9.2% 10.6% -3.0% OAK -23.40% 1.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%                 NFC East               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE PHI 9.80% 10.5 61.0% 25.3% 12.4% 73.4% -12.6% DAL 6.00% 10.2 38.9% 24.4% 25.0% 63.9% 5.8% NYG -13.90% 5.8 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% -0.9% WAS -20.50% 5.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.6%                 NFC North               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE GB 24.90% 10.9 55.0% 39.6% 29.8% 84.8% 10.5% DET 8.60% 10.6 44.9% 29.3% 33.2% 78.1% -11.9% CHI -15.20% 6.7 0.1% 0.0% 1.8% 1.9% 1.0% MIN -13.70% 6.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% -1.2%                 NFC South               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE NO 3.20% 7.4 59.2% 0.0% 0.0% 59.2% -18.1% ATL -6.60% 6.9 33.8% 0.1% 0.0% 33.8% 18.5% CAR -21.80% 5 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% -0.7% TB -25.20% 4.1 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3%                 NFC West               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE ARI 4.60% 11.8 76.4% 71.8% 20.8% 97.1% 3.5% SF 7.30% 9.6 12.2% 5.1% 43.3% 55.5% 29.8% SEA 12.20% 9.3 11.3% 4.5% 32.2% 43.5% -24.4% STL -9.60% 6.9 0.1% 0.0% 1.2% 1.2% 1.0%  [/tablegrid]
 
Playoff Seeds based on projected wins:
 
AFC:
 
1) NE (11.5 wins)
2) Den (10.9 wins)
3) Bal (9.9) wins)
4) Indy (9.7 wins)
5) KC (10.8 wins)
6) Pit (9.8 wins)
 
NFC
 
1)  ARI (11.8 wins)
2) GB (10.9 wins)
3) Phi (10.5 wins)
4) NO (7.4 wins)
5) Det (10.6 wins)
6) Dal (10.2 wins)
 
A couple of observations:
 
KC is nipping at Denvers heels for the AFC west.  0.1 game behind in projected wins.
AFC north still sims out to all team being 8-8 or better.
All the teams projected to make the playoffs in the AFC have 9.7 wins or more.
NYJ, JAC, Ten, Oak and Was are all at 0.0% for making the playoffs. NYG are 0.1%. 
The NFC south division can be had with 7 wins.
As for the rest of the NFC, 10 wins may be necessary to make the playoffs.  
 

 

[Briz]

DVOA through week 11 of the top 16:  http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2014/week-11-dvoa-ratings
 
[tablegrid= DVOA through week 11 ] TEAM TOTAL LAST WEIGHTED RANK OFFENSE OFF. DEFENSE DEF. S.T. S.T.     DVOA WEEK DVOA   DVOA RANK DVOA RANK DVOA RANK 1 DEN 31.50% 1 30.40% 1 18.50% 2 -17.20% 2 -4.20% 27 2 GB 23.90% 3 24.90% 2 22.50% 1 -1.60% 10 -0.20% 16 3 BAL 22.00% 2 23.30% 3 7.90% 12 -5.70% 7 8.40% 1 4 MIA 20.00% 6 22.10% 4 8.10% 10 -16.00% 3 -4.10% 26 5 NE 19.60% 8 20.60% 5 13.80% 4 -0.10% 13 5.80% 4 6 KC 17.10% 10 20.00% 6 12.70% 7 0.40% 14 4.80% 7 7 SEA 15.10% 4 12.20% 7 13.10% 6 -5.30% 9 -3.30% 23 8 PHI 9.60% 5 9.80% 8 -3.40% 18 -5.60% 8 7.40% 2 9 DET 8.90% 9 8.60% 9 -7.50% 22 -22.30% 1 -5.90% 31 10 PIT 6.90% 11 6.90% 11 16.90% 3 8.80% 28 -1.20% 20 11 SF 6.80% 16 7.30% 10 -3.20% 17 -15.50% 4 -5.50% 29 12 BUF 6.80% 13 5.90% 13 -12.00% 27 -13.20% 5 5.50% 5 13 DAL 5.40% 14 6.00% 12 11.30% 8 4.40% 21 -1.40% 21 14 IND 5.10% 7 5.30% 14 6.60% 13 7.30% 26 5.80% 3 15 ARI 4.40% 15 4.60% 15 -7.80% 23 -12.10% 6 0.10% 15 16 NO 2.60% 12 3.20% 16 13.60% 5 11.40% 30 0.40% 14  [/tablegrid] 

 

[TomTerrific]

Briz, hope you're planning on posting the latest ELO results from 538. The Pats are really kicking ass and taking names on that rating system. Not that anyone should trust it any more than DVOA, but it's nice to see from a Pats fan POV.

 

[Briz]

Fivethirtyeight's Elo Ratings:  http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/week-12-nfl-elo-ratings-and-playoff-odds/
 

 
 

 
Playoff seedings:
 
AFC
 
1) NE 12.4 wins
2) Den 10.9 wins
3) Indy 10.2 wins
4) Balt 9.6 wins
5) KC 10.8 wins
6) Cinci 9.3 wins
 
NFC
 
1) Ari 12.4 wins
2) GB 10.9 wins
3) Phi 10.7 wins
4) NO 7.5 wins
5) Dal 10.4 wins
6) Det 10.3 wins
 
Enjoy!

 

[Briz]

Briz, hope you're planning on posting the latest ELO results from 538. The Pats are really kicking ass and taking names on that rating system. Not that anyone should trust it any more than DVOA, but it's nice to see from a Pats fan POV.

 
Yep, I was in the middle of it

 

[FL4WL3SS]

How much is point differential weighted in these calculations?

 

[Briz]

FO's playoff odds through week 12:  http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds
 
The Pats make the playoffs in 95% of the sims, win the division 90% of time, earn a bye 73% of the time and earn the #1 seed 46% of the time.  They are now second in weighed DVOA behind Denver.  The full DVOA report has not been released as of yet.
 
[tablegrid= FO Playoff odds through Week 12 ]AFC East               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE NE 29.70% 12 89.7% 72.6% 5.7% 95.4% 4.9% MIA 21.30% 9.3 8.3% 2.4% 22.6% 31.0% -18.8% BUF 9.60% 8.4 1.9% 1.1% 6.3% 8.2% 1.2% NYJ -19.90% 3.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%                 AFC North               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE BAL 23.20% 10.4 39.9% 25.3% 29.1% 69.0% 11.5% PIT 7.40% 9.8 30.8% 6.2% 21.7% 52.5% -5.9% CIN 0.80% 9.3 22.7% 10.3% 24.9% 47.6% 15.5% CLE -4.50% 9.1 6.6% 3.8% 17.2% 23.8% 7.4%                 AFC South               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE IND 6.80% 9.9 95.9% 11.0% 0.0% 95.9% 7.8% HOU -9.20% 7.5 4.1% 0.0% 0.9% 5.0% -11.4% TEN -21.20% 4.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% JAC -27.70% 3.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%                 AFC West               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE DEN 35.00% 11.3 72.5% 55.1% 20.0% 92.5% 6.8% KC 14.20% 9.9 24.8% 11.5% 39.1% 63.9% -23.7% SD 0.20% 8.7 2.7% 0.7% 12.5% 15.3% 4.6% OAK -17.10% 2.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%                 NFC East               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE PHI 13.30% 10.8 57.3% 33.2% 17.1% 74.4% 1.0% DAL 8.90% 10.7 42.7% 32.5% 31.3% 73.9% 10.0% NYG -18.10% 5.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% WAS -19.60% 5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%                 NFC North               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE GB 25.40% 11.2 72.4% 51.7% 17.0% 89.4% 4.6% DET 3.70% 10.1 27.5% 14.8% 28.0% 55.5% -22.6% CHI -12.70% 7.1 0.1% 0.0% 2.3% 2.4% 0.5% MIN -13.20% 6.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.3%                 NFC South               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE NO 2.00% 6.8 57.2% 0.0% 0.0% 57.2% -2.0% ATL -9.00% 6.2 28.6% 0.0% 0.0% 28.6% -5.2% CAR -20.30% 5.1 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0% 7.3% TB -28.50% 3.8 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% -0.1%                 NFC West               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE ARI 1.00% 11.3 61.8% 55.6% 32.5% 94.3% -2.8% SF 8.20% 9.8 17.9% 5.7% 37.1% 55.0% -0.5% SEA 16.00% 9.8 20.3% 6.5% 34.6% 54.9% 11.4% STL -13.10% 6.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% -1.1%  [/tablegrid] 
 
Playoff seedings by projected win total:
 
AFC
1) NE (12 wins)
2) Den (11.3 wins)
3) Balt (10.4 wins)
4) Indy (9.9 wins)
5) KC (9.9 wins)
6) Pitt (9.8 wins)
 
NFC
1) Ari (11.3 wins)
2) GB (11.2 wins)
3) Phi (10.8 wins)
4) NO (6.8 wins)
5) Dal (10.7 wins)
6) Det (10.1 wins)
 
A couple of thoughts:
 
1)  NE is now the favorite to appear in the conference Championship (57% of the time, Den = 50%), win the conference (32% to Den 29%) and win the Superbowl (19% to Den 17%).  Den is second in all of those categories.  GB is the favorite out of the NFC at 47%, 29% and 15% respectively.
 
2)  7 wins will take the NFC south.  
 
3)  Although they are 1/2 game back in the standings, FO sims has Cle winning the division 6.6% of the time. Balt remains the favorite at 40%, followed by Pit (31%) and Cincy (23%).
 
4)  Was, NYJ, Ten, Jac and Oak are all at 0.0%
 
5) Dal and Phi are separated by 0.1 simulated wins in FO's model.
 
The DVOA article is not out yet. (see next post). I will be traveling for Thanksgiving so if someone would like to post it, please do.  Same for FiveThirtyEight's Elo ratings.  Both will probably be updated tomorrow.
 

 

[Briz]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2014/week-12-dvoa-ratings
 
[tablegrid= Week 12 DVOA Ratings (top 16) ] TEAM TOTAL LAST WEIGHTED RANK OFFENSE OFF. DEFENSE DEF. S.T. S.T.     DVOA WEEK DVOA   DVOA RANK DVOA RANK DVOA RANK 1 DEN 35.60% 1 35.00% 1 26.10% 1 -14.30% 4 -4.90% 29 2 NE 25.70% 5 29.70% 2 17.10% 4 -1.70% 10 6.90% 3 3 GB 24.50% 2 25.40% 3 24.60% 2 -0.10% 12 -0.20% 15 4 BAL 22.40% 3 23.20% 4 10.10% 10 -4.30% 9 8.00% 2 5 MIA 19.10% 4 21.30% 5 12.30% 7 -10.60% 6 -3.80% 24 6 SEA 18.50% 7 16.00% 6 12.00% 8 -8.20% 7 -1.80% 20 7 KC 14.20% 6 14.20% 7 10.30% 9 2.00% 18 5.80% 4 8 PHI 12.40% 8 13.30% 8 -2.20% 16 -5.30% 8 9.40% 1 9 BUF 9.30% 12 9.60% 9 -11.10% 26 -14.90% 3 5.40% 6 10 DAL 8.50% 13 8.90% 10 14.50% 5 6.10% 25 0.10% 13 11 SF 7.60% 11 8.20% 11 -3.90% 18 -16.60% 2 -5.00% 30 12 IND 6.90% 14 6.80% 13 3.10% 13 2.00% 17 5.80% 5 13 PIT 6.80% 10 7.40% 12 17.80% 3 9.70% 29 -1.30% 19 14 DET 4.60% 9 3.70% 14 -10.00% 24 -20.50% 1 -5.90% 32 15 CIN 3.50% 17 0.80% 17 -0.40% 15 1.30% 16 5.20% 7 16 SD 1.30% 18 0.20% 18 9.60% 11 7.90% 27 -0.40% 17  [/tablegrid] 

 

[Briz]

An interesting couple of charts showing NE's climb and the Den fall in DVOA (week by week).  Note the KC loss in the NE plot.
 

 
Have a happy Thanksgiving everyone.  Eat some turkey, drink some beverages, watch a lot of football.

 

[epraz]

DVOA has the AFC East as by far the best division in the NFL.

 

[Briz]

Updated for week 13:  http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds
 
The Pats are projected to have 11.6 wins and make the playoffs 93% of the time.  In 82% of the sims they win the division.  By projected wins, they would have the 2 seed (0.2 wins behind Denver) but earn the #1 seed in more of the sims than Denver (49% vs 41%; data in the link).
 
[tablegrid= FO playoff odds through week 13 ]AFC East               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE NE 31.10% 11.6 81.50% 74.30% 11.60% 93.10% -2.30% MIA 16.20% 9.5 14.50% 7.30% 32.80% 47.30% 16.30% BUF 10.60% 8.8 3.90% 1.80% 6.80% 10.70% 2.50% NYJ -18.00% 3.3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%                 AFC North               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE CIN -3.00% 10.2 50.70% 16.30% 14.60% 65.30% 17.70% BAL 24.40% 9.7 25.90% 1.50% 18.90% 44.80% -24.20% PIT 5.60% 9.1 17.80% 3.60% 16.30% 34.10% -18.40% CLE -6.30% 8.8 5.60% 0.40% 4.40% 10.00% -13.80%                 AFC South               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE IND 9.10% 10.2 96.30% 8.40% 0.00% 96.30% 0.40% HOU -6.20% 7.9 3.70% 0.10% 3.10% 6.80% 1.70% TEN -31.00% 3.9 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% JAC -29.20% 3.5 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%                 AFC West               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE DEN 33.00% 11.8 95.80% 83.30% 3.20% 99.00% 6.50% KC 18.00% 9.6 1.20% 0.70% 53.60% 54.80% -9.10% SD 2.20% 9.5 3.10% 2.40% 34.80% 37.80% 22.60% OAK -28.50% 2 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%                 NFC East               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE PHI 20.00% 11.6 89.00% 55.90% 4.50% 93.50% 19.10% DAL 5.90% 10 11.00% 5.80% 38.90% 49.90% -24.00% NYG -15.30% 4.7 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% WAS -22.90% 4.6 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%                 NFC North               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE GB 25.20% 11.6 70.60% 62.80% 24.70% 95.20% 5.80% DET 5.80% 10.4 29.40% 18.50% 42.90% 72.30% 16.80% CHI -14.50% 6.8 0.00% 0.00% 0.70% 0.70% -1.70% MIN -13.20% 6.7 0.00% 0.00% 0.10% 0.10% 0.00%                 NFC South               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE NO 9.80% 7.7 73.70% 0.00% 0.00% 73.70% 16.50% ATL -6.90% 6.7 24.50% 0.00% 0.00% 24.50% -4.10% CAR -25.80% 5.1 1.80% 0.00% 0.00% 1.80% -12.20% TB -26.50% 3.3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -0.20%                 NFC West               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE ARI -1.90% 10.7 50.50% 33.40% 35.40% 85.90% -8.40% SEA 16.40% 10.3 41.40% 21.10% 30.90% 72.30% 17.40% SF 4.90% 9.2 8.10% 2.50% 21.60% 29.60% -25.30% STL 1.80% 7.2 0.00% 0.00% 0.40% 0.50% 0.30%  [/tablegrid]
 
 
Playoff seeds based on projected wins:
 
AFC
1) Den (11.8)
2) NE (11.6)
3) and 4) Cin and Indy (both with 10.2)
5) Bal (9.7)
6) KC (9.6)
Just barely out: Mia and SD (9.5 wins)
 
NFC
1) and 2) Phi and GB (Both with 11.6)
3) Ari (10.7)
4) NO (7.7)
5) Det (10.4)
6) Sea (10.3)
Next team up: Dal (10.0)

 

[Briz]

DVOA of the top 16: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2014/week-13-dvoa-ratings
 
[tablegrid= DVOA through week 13 of the top 16 ] TEAM TOTAL LAST WEIGHTED RANK OFFENSE OFF. DEFENSE DEF. S.T. S.T.     DVOA WEEK DVOA   DVOA RANK DVOA RANK DVOA RANK 1 DEN 34.60% 1 0 1 23.80% 2 -15.30% 4 -4.50% 27 2 NE 25.30% 2 31.10% 2 18.70% 3 -0.80% 12 5.80% 3 3 GB 23.90% 3 25.20% 3 25.40% 1 0.50% 16 -1.00% 19 4 BAL 21.60% 4 24.40% 4 10.70% 9 -2.20% 9 8.60% 2 5 SEA 21.40% 6 16.40% 7 12.60% 7 -9.70% 6 -0.90% 18 6 MIA 16.40% 5 16.20% 8 10.60% 10 -9.60% 7 -3.80% 25 7 PHI 16.00% 8 20.00% 5 -1.40% 15 -8.60% 8 8.80% 1 8 KC 13.80% 7 18.00% 6 8.30% 11 0.10% 14 5.60% 6 9 BUF 9.40% 9 10.60% 9 -12.40% 27 -16.00% 3 5.80% 4 10 IND 9.10% 12 9.10% 11 4.60% 13 1.20% 19 5.70% 5 11 DET 7.20% 14 5.80% 13 -6.00% 20 -18.90% 1 -5.70% 31 12 SF 6.80% 11 4.90% 15 -4.70% 18 -16.50% 2 -5.00% 30 13 PIT 5.60% 13 5.60% 14 17.60% 4 11.50% 29 -0.40% 14 14 NO 5.30% 18 9.80% 10 17.10% 5 12.90% 31 1.20% 11 15 DAL 4.00% 10 5.90% 12 11.10% 8 7.10% 24 0.00% 13 16 SD 1.80% 16 2.20% 16 12.80% 6 10.20% 28 -0.80% 16  [/tablegrid] 

 

[Briz]

Fivethirtyeight's Elo ratings and odds are up:  http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/nfl-week-14-elo-ratings-and-playoff-odds/
 
NE continues to have the top spot despite the loss to GB.  Their Elo did take a 20 point hit.
 

 
Playoff Odds:
 

 
Playoffs based on projected wins:
 
AFC:
1) NE (12 wins)
2) Den (11.8 wins)
3) Indy (10.6 wins)
4) Cincy (10.2 wins)
5) and 6) Balt and SD (9.7 wins)
 
NFC
1) GB (11.9 wins)
2) Phi (11.7 wins)
3) Ari (11.1 wins)
4) NO (7.6 wins)
5) Sea (10.6 wins)
6) Det (10.4 wins)
 
Also, this is pretty cool:  http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nfl-week-14-playoff-implications-the-chargers-have-a-pulse/
 
So is the mapping of each teams odds in their model:  http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/how-each-nfl-teams-playoff-odds-have-changed-this-season/

 

[crystalline]

Cool stuff. Thanks for posting these.
(Ps the probability of the 1 seed is a better metric than using projected wins which, as an average, is sensitive to distribution shape.)

 

[DJnVa]

 

[Briz]

Thanks DrewDog (Fivethirtyeight's article:  http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/week-15-nfl-elo-ratings-and-playoff-odds/.  )
 
Here is a summary of FO's Playoff odds for comparison:  http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds
 
Pats win the Division in 97% of the sims and make the playoffs 99.7% of the time.  90% of the sims they get a bye and 63% of the sims they earn the #1 seed.
 
[tablegrid= FO's Playoff Odds through week 14 ]AFC East               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE NE 31.00% 12 97.40% 90.10% 2.30% 99.70% 6.50% MIA 15.40% 8.9 2.20% 0.00% 18.80% 21.10% -26.20% BUF 9.60% 8.4 0.40% 0.00% 4.60% 5.00% -5.70% NYJ -19.40% 2.9 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%                 AFC North               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE BAL 25.90% 10.3 41.80% 0.50% 38.70% 80.50% 35.70% PIT 10.40% 9.8 39.40% 5.40% 26.30% 65.70% 31.60% CIN -5.40% 9.5 17.80% 2.40% 32.90% 50.70% -14.50% CLE -5.80% 8.3 0.90% 0.00% 3.40% 4.30% -5.70%                 AFC South               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE IND 9.90% 10.8 98.30% 9.60% 0.20% 98.40% 2.10% HOU -5.90% 8.4 1.70% 0.00% 11.10% 12.90% 6.10% TEN -39.50% 3.2 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% JAC -24.10% 3.1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%                 AFC West               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE DEN 32.60% 12.1 99.80% 92.00% 0.20% 99.99% 1.00% SD 0.60% 9.1 0.20% 0.00% 25.60% 25.80% -12.10% KC 18.20% 9 0.00% 0.00% 35.90% 35.90% -18.90% OAK -20.20% 2.7 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%                 NFC East               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE PHI 15.40% 10.9 74.90% 14.80% 4.30% 79.20% -14.30% DAL 3.90% 10.5 25.10% 12.40% 31.70% 56.80% 6.90% NYG -9.20% 5.5 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% WAS -36.40% 4 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%                 NFC North               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE GB 24.90% 11.8 71.60% 67.00% 25.20% 96.80% 1.60% DET 9.40% 10.6 28.40% 22.10% 48.30% 76.70% 4.30% MIN -7.20% 7.2 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% CHI -17.00% 6.3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -0.70%                 NFC South               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE NO 0.70% 6.7 49.40% 0.00% 0.00% 49.40% -24.30% ATL -1.50% 6.6 37.50% 0.00% 0.00% 37.50% 13.00% CAR -21.60% 6 13.10% 0.00% 0.00% 13.10% 11.30% TB -28.80% 3.1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%                 NFC West               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE ARI -3.40% 11.1 47.40% 41.70% 46.80% 94.20% 8.30% SEA 24.70% 11 52.60% 41.90% 35.30% 87.80% 15.60% SF 0.90% 8.5 0.00% 0.00% 8.30% 8.30% -21.30% STL 8.70% 7.7 0.00% 0.00% 0.10% 0.10% -0.40%  [/tablegrid] 
 
As per request, I am going to approach the playoff picture in a different manner this week.
 
Probability of a team earning X seed (cutoff = 10%; follow link above to see numbers):
 
AFC
 
1) NE (63%), Den (35%)
2) Den (57%), NE (27%)
3) Indy (48%), Pit (19%), Bal (13%)
4) Indy (40%), Bal (29%), Pit (15%)
5) Bal (24%), KC (23%), SD (14%), Cincy (14%), Pit (12%)
6) Ciny (19%), Bal (15%), Pit (14%), MIA (13%), KC (13%), SD (12%)
 
NFC
 
1) GB (44%), SEA (23%), ARI (20%)
2) GB (23%), ARI (22%), SEA (19%), DET (16%), PHI (12%)
3) Phi (60%), Dal (13%), SEA (11%)
4) NO (49%), ATL (38%), CAR (13%)
5) ARI (32%), SEA (20%), GB (16%), Dal (15%), DET (14%)
6) DET (34%), DAL (17%), ARI (15%), SEA (15%)
 
 
 
 

 

[Briz]

DVOA summary of the top 16:  http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2014/week-14-dvoa-ratings
 
[tablegrid= DVOA of the top 16 ] TEAM TOTAL LAST WEIGHTED RANK OFFENSE OFF. DEFENSE DEF. S.T. S.T.     DVOA WEEK DVOA   DVOA RANK DVOA RANK DVOA RANK 1 DEN 35.00% 1 32.60% 1 24.80% 2 -13.90% 3 -3.70% 26 2 NE 26.30% 2 31.00% 2 15.20% 4 -5.10% 10 6.00% 3 3 SEA 25.60% 5 24.70% 5 15.10% 5 -12.30% 4 -1.80% 19 4 GB 24.70% 3 24.90% 4 27.30% 1 1.90% 18 -0.60% 18 5 BAL 24.00% 4 25.90% 3 13.10% 7 -2.70% 12 8.20% 2 6 MIA 14.10% 6 15.40% 7 9.90% 10 -7.20% 8 -3.10% 23 7 PHI 13.70% 7 15.40% 8 -2.60% 16 -7.20% 7 9.00% 1 8 KC 12.40% 8 18.20% 6 8.60% 12 1.10% 16 4.80% 6 9 DET 9.80% 11 9.40% 12 -3.90% 18 -18.30% 1 -4.60% 30 10 BUF 9.40% 9 9.60% 11 -10.40% 25 -14.90% 2 4.90% 5 11 IND 8.30% 10 9.90% 10 3.10% 13 -0.50% 14 4.70% 7 12 PIT 7.20% 13 10.40% 9 20.20% 3 12.60% 30 -0.40% 16 13 DAL 3.60% 15 3.90% 14 13.30% 6 10.20% 28 0.60% 13 14 SF 2.00% 12 0.90% 15 -5.70% 19 -12.10% 5 -4.30% 28 15 SD 1.60% 16 0.60% 17 9.50% 11 6.00% 25 -1.80% 20 16 CIN 0.50% 17 -5.40% 20 -1.40% 15 3.00% 23 5.00% 4  [/tablegrid] 

 

[Briz]

Nevermind

 

[MentalDisabldLst]

DVOA summary of the top 16:  http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2014/week-14-dvoa-ratings

 
Yet another reason why I want no part of Baltimore in the playoffs.

 

[Chemistry Schmemistry]

If you want to find the odds during the week's worth of games (and you have an Android-based device), you can run this simulator:

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.solecismic.nflstandings&hl=en

You can change the spreads of upcoming games to reflect DVOA, or any system. Or mark specific games as won or lost and simulate from there.

Based on the early games today and a simulation of 100,000 runs through the rest of the season, here are New England's odds:

Seed 1: 84.1%, Seed 2: 12.5%, Seed 3: 2.9%, Seed 4: 0.5%

New England clinches a bye with one more win. The chance of getting the first seed increases to 95% with any one Denver loss, and to 94% with a win next week.

Denver has an 83% chance of getting the other bye, Cincy 8%, Indy 7%, Pittsburgh 5%, Baltimore and San Diego greater than 0.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

This is really just confirming what we all already know, but FO's DVOA piece this week notes that the Patriots' defensive DVOA has gone from 5.2% (20th leaguewide) in Weeks 1-9 to -24.7% (2nd leaguewide) in Weeks 10-15.  -24.7% is a pretty insane number, right there with defenses like the 2000 Ravens and 2013 Seahawks and significantly better than any Patriots team in the 2001-2004 glory years.  Of course, playing well for six weeks isn't the same as playing well for an entire season.  But this defense is playing out of its mind right now.

 

[bakahump]

It gives hope that if they met say Seattle in the SB.....They could score 17 and win by 10.
 
Or
 
If they met say GB in the SB (at a neutral field obv...)  they could score 30 and win by 10.

 

[Briz]

FO's Playoff odds through week 15:  http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds
 
Pats earn a bye in 95% of the simulations and the #1 seed 68% of the time.  They make the AFCCG in 67% of the sims (2nd highest percentage), win the AFCCG in 40% of the sims (highest percentage) and bring home the Lombardi 22% of the time (highest percentage). They are now in the #1 spot for weighted DVOA.  
 
[tablegrid= FO playoff odds ]AFC East               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE NE 35.10% 12.4 100% 95% 0% 100% 0% BUF 14.00% 9 0% 0% 6% 6% 1% MIA 7.00% 8.5 0% 0% 0% 0% -21% NYJ -22.30% 3.5 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%                 AFC North               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE BAL 28.60% 10.5 26% 0% 62% 88% 7% PIT 10.40% 10.2 47% 3% 34% 82% 16% CIN -1.90% 10.2 27% 2% 52% 78% 28% CLE -11.30% 7.6 0% 0% 0% 0% -4%                 AFC South               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE IND 8.90% 11 100% 3% 0% 100% 2% HOU -10.20% 8.1 0% 0% 2% 2% -11% JAC -26.10% 3 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% TEN -35.90% 2.7 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%                 AFC West               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE DEN 30.00% 12.5 100% 98% 0% 100% 0% KC 19.90% 9.1 0% 0% 34% 34% -2% SD 3.60% 8.7 0% 0% 10% 10% -16% OAK -28.20% 2.5 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%                 NFC East               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE DAL 8.90% 11.2 71% 31% 16% 86% 29% PHI 14.90% 10.2 29% 0% 6% 35% -44% NYG -5.30% 5.8 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% WAS -36.40% 3.8 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%                 NFC North               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE GB 22.20% 11.4 57% 44% 36% 93% -4% DET 4.30% 10.8 43% 30% 46% 89% 12% MIN -5.70% 7 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% CHI -22.90% 5.7 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%                 NFC South               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE NO 3.80% 7.2 65% 0% 0% 65% 16% CAR -16.70% 6.4 14% 0% 0% 14% 1% ATL -6.70% 6 21% 0% 0% 21% -17% TB -24.60% 2.8 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%                 NFC West               Team WEI DVOA Mean Wins DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE ARI -8.00% 11.7 46% 46% 54% 100% 6% SEA 23.10% 11.3 54% 49% 43% 97% 9% SF 1.10% 8.3 0% 0% 0% 0% -8% STL 7.20% 7 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%  [/tablegrid]
 
Probabilities to earn a seed (cutoff 10%):
 
AFC
 
1)  NE (67.6%), Den (32.2%)
2) Den (65.8%), NE (27.0%)
3) Indy (45.7%), Pit (29.7%), Cincy (12.0%), Balt (6.7% -- including because of the #4 probabilities)
4) Indy (51.6%), Balt (19.3%), Pit (14.4%), Cincy (13.2%)
5) Balt (37.3%), Cincy (24.7%), KC (21.9%), Pit (10.7%)
6) Cincy (26.8%), Balt (26.0%), Pit (23.4%), KC (12.2%)
 
NFC
 
1) Ari (36.2%), Sea (28%), Dal (18.1%), GB (15.6%)
2) GB (28.9%), Det (27.6%), Sea (20.6%), Dal (13.2%)
3) Dal (39.2%), Phi (29.4%), Det (13.1%), GB (12.8%)
4) NO (65.0%), Atl (21.0%), Car (14.0%)
5) Ari (43.1%), Sea (30.8%), GB (14.9%)
6) Det (43.0%), GB (20.7%), Sea (12.0%), Ari (11.0%)
 
 

 

[Briz]

DVOA summary:  http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2014/week-15-dvoa-ratings
 
[tablegrid= Week 15 DVOA from FO ] TEAM TOTAL LAST WEIGHTED RANK OFFENSE OFF. DEFENSE DEF. S.T. S.T.     DVOA WEEK DVOA   DVOA RANK DVOA RANK DVOA RANK 1 DEN 33.2% 1 30.0% 2 23.4% 2 -13.6% 3 -3.7% 26 2 NE 27.2% 2 35.1% 1 16.6% 4 -5.3% 9 5.3% 5 3 SEA 25.4% 3 23.1% 4 14.8% 6 -11.9% 4 -1.3% 18 4 BAL 25.1% 5 28.6% 3 14.6% 7 -3.0% 12 7.5% 2 5 GB 21.7% 4 22.2% 5 24.5% 1 0.7% 17 -2.1% 21 6 KC 13.2% 8 19.9% 6 8.2% 11 1.4% 18 6.3% 4 7 PHI 12.3% 7 14.9% 7 -2.2% 16 -5.4% 8 9.0% 1 8 BUF 11.5% 10 14.0% 8 -11.9% 26 -16.6% 1 6.8% 3 9 PIT 9.0% 12 10.4% 9 22.3% 3 13.1% 31 -0.2% 15 10 IND 9.0% 11 8.9% 11 2.7% 13 -2.1% 13 4.1% 7 11 MIA 8.3% 6 7.0% 13 7.0% 12 -4.9% 10 -3.6% 25 12 DET 6.9% 9 4.3% 14 -3.9% 17 -15.6% 2 -4.8% 30 13 DAL 6.7% 13 8.9% 10 14.9% 5 9.2% 26 1.0% 11 14 SD 3.9% 15 3.6% 16 10.0% 10 4.4% 23 -1.7% 19 15 CIN 3.7% 16 -1.9% 19 -1.7% 15 -0.2% 15 5.2% 6 16 SF 2.3% 14 1.1% 17 -5.2% 19 -11.6% 5 -4.1% 29  [/tablegrid]

 

[Briz]

FiveThirtyEight's Elo ratings and odds through week 15:  http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/week-16-nfl-elo-ratings-and-playoff-odds/
 
Pats are just ahead of Seattle.
 

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Thanks again for the updates Briz!
 
One thing to note -- Patriots are now the only team that ranks in top 10 for both offensive, defensive, and special teams DVOA numbers. 
 
FO also has a fascinating chart that shows Pats D being the 2nd best in the league from weeks 10-15, with a whopping -24.7% number (5.2% and 20th rated D in weeks 1-9):
 
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2014/week-15-dvoa-ratings
 
That puts'em right behind the Rams and above Buffalo, Arizona, and SF.