#FirstWorldProblems: Can you have too much pitching?

[mauf]

One addition: their rule 5 draft move to bring Rutledge back gives us a pretty clear answer on the current bench. Holt is the 5th OF/LH utility IF, Rutledge is the RH utility IF who will see some regular PT taking LHP ABs away from Sandoval here and there (not full platoon). Hernandez is in Pawtucket giving some additional MI depth. Moreland likely gets into a few games in LF before the end of the season.

Not great, but it fills all the holes with something and it's not even 2017 yet. The extra SP is likely being shopped for someone who can fill either the role Rutledge is in now or a borderline ready starter/reliever with options.

I think you're reading too much into what I'm prescribing as Rutledge's role on the team if you think I'm reading too much into the Rule 5 selection.

To me it just says that they view Rutledge as some quantity better than the average FA they could pull (i.e. your fringy minor leaguer). He's been with the team a good bit of time now and at one point last year before his injury the club was preferentially employing Rutledge on the 25 man over Hernandez (the person I referenced him replacing) and Deven Marrero. He isn't a standard Rule 5 pick for this fact.

That doesn't mean he's locked into a job. He's a placeholder they aren't opposed to going into 2017 with, nothing more.

You're moving the goalposts.

 

[Drek717]

You're moving the goalposts.

How so? Please expand as I see no variance between the argument put forth in the respective quotes.

 

[uk_sox_fan]

Before starting to argue for a six man rotation, please state the case for why any of our three CYA contenders, that should give us 200-220 IPs each, should make less starts?

And any talk of a 'modified' six man is just stupid. If you want to root for a manager doing shit to look smart, go root for the Cubs. Trying to juggle the 4 and 5 spots to keep everyone would do nothing but further eff up the pen, which should be just fine with the innings load the 1-3 slots should be reasonably expected to carry. I'm far from a Farrell apologist, but expecting him to reinvent the wheel for sake of not being conventional is asinine.

I'm not 100% convinced of the merits - mostly because such a decision would involve the coaches, trainers and relevant players working out a plan and everyone getting on board for which I would have no insight - but a modified 6-man could certainly be feasible.

Say Pomeranz and Buchholz were asked to share a start every turn in the rotation. The Pomerholz hybrid would take the 4th spot in the rotation so they'd be less affected by missed starts due to scheduling quirks and rainouts early in the season - the 5th spot goes to ERod. When their turn comes up, the Pomerholzes go in with the expectation that they will throw approximately 60 pitches or about 4 innings. This would be somewhat flexible so if the starter is doing particularly well / is pitching efficiently he could start the 5th, but in general he should expect to face no more than 18 batters on the night. If Pom is starting and the opponent stacks the lineup with lefties, Buch might come in earlier for matchup optimisation and vice versa - whoever goes 2nd should benefit more than would in a traditional start unless the opponent doesn't play the platoon in which case the starter benefits.

Benefits:

• No one runs the gauntlet 3 times so batters miss out on that advantage
• Pomerholz knows he's not pitching more than 60 pitches so nothing needs to be conserved
• Opponents can't optimise lineups or must pinch hit early on and so burn bench options
• For this turn in the lineup it's reasonable to expect that Pomerholz goes 8IP regularly so the bullpen gets a day of rest quite frequently (in addition to having 3 studs 1-3 in the rotation - i.e. we're talking about a year of low bullpen usage and thus every chance of a lights-out bullpen)
• Pomerholz would be available mid-week for bullpen work to keep them stretched out and further reduce the load on the others.
• Should one of the others go down it wouldn't take long to ramp these guys up from 4IP per start to 6IP to start as they revert to a standard 5-man.
• All this assumes Wright becomes the long man.

So our studly 1-3 get all their starts, Pomerholz have every chance to morph into a 4th stud and if ERod fulfils his potential we could finally break through that magic 100 win barrier.

Ok, so maybe I'm getting carried away here but I do think it's worth exploring.

 

[uk_sox_fan]

I forgot to add drawbacks:

• Egos get in the way
• One less traditional reliever roster spot (Hembree?)
• The press goes nuts at even a whiff of failure or if someone get hurt "because" of the unusual usage
• 60 pitches plus occasional bullpen work on 3rd day each isn't enough to keep these guys effective and it implodes
• Coming into the game in the 5th is harder some how and so the 2nd starter isn't generally effective
• it works and Farrell is declared a genius causing you Farrell-haters no end of torment

 

[MikeM]

The market right now includes many options. They may or may not be inferior options, or more expensive options, but they are still options. By Spring Training, anyone worth grabbing would have already been grabbed. It's a basic lesson of supply and demand. Then the market price can go up at that point. Plus, you have the benefit of seeing what the Sox staff does and whether there are any injuries internally.

Again, to me that essentially amounts to throwing another strictly generalized concept at the current reality wall and hoping it happens to stick. Actual context and the specified use of Buchholz himself in that is key here imo.

I do agree though that by keeping Buchholz we do gain the added benefit of SP insurance. For some that is worth it, even if it likely means taking the greater risk you end up in a bad spot that sees us eat more contract or maybe have to start the year with him on the roster. If that is your stance I completely disagree, but also can at least identify it as being a lot more rational here then writing off all the risk involved in wanting that benefit there as "a simple matter of waiting for an injury on another team".

 

[mastergasket]

The only major reason to trade Buchholz is if they're serious about staying under the luxury tax threshold. If so, they're not going to eat any of his salary and consequently won't get anyone very valuable in return. That is true regardless of when they trade him, be it now or at the end of spring training.