Draft value talk: Tulalip or Young MC.

[Mugsy's Jock]

Without the ACL injuries most draftniks, for what they're worth, had him pegged as a top ten talent.

True, but with the injuries he was most commonly expected to go in the second round or later.

I'm not saying mock draft position is any kind of accurate predictor of player quality, nor do I withdraw my trust in Bill. But I am saying taking Easley was by no means a simple or chalk selection. They appear to have reached, and it did not turn out well.

In the Second Round or later
Walter Football (Easley at #44): http://walterfootball.com/draft2014_2.php
MMQB/Peter King (Easley not taken in first round)
ESPN/Todd McShay (Easley not in first round)
ESPN/Kiper (Easley not in first round)
NESN/Doug Kyed (Easley not in first round)
NFLN/Mike Mayock (Easley not in first round, and ranked as #64 prospect)
SB Nation/Matthew Fairburn and Dan Kadar (both had Easley outside their first round)
SI.com/Don Banks, Chris Burke, Doug Farrar (none had Easley in their first round)

In the Third Round or later
CBS Sports/Rob Rang (Easley not in first or second round)
ESPN/McShay-Kiper Joint Mock (Easley at #69):
Draftsite.com (Easley at #74): http://www.draftsite.com/nfl/mock-draft/2014/

In the Fifth Round or later
NFL.com/Bucky Brooks (Easley not taken in first 4 rounds)

Credit Where Credit is due (had Easley to Pats at #29)
The only two 2014 mock drafts that I could find with Easley in the first round, both actually had him going to the Patriots:
Bleacher Report/Matt Miller
Draftek

Edit: Tried to include the links but something went awry. Will try to add what I can...

 

[Super Nomario]

True, but with the injuries he was most commonly expected to go in the second round or later.

I'm not saying mock draft position is any kind of accurate predictor of player quality, nor do I withdraw my trust in Bill. But I am saying taking Easley was by no means a simple or chalk selection. They appear to have reached, and it did not turn out well.

I think analysis like this misunderstands how the draft works. Some players are higher-variance than others, and given Easley's background, it's safe to say that teams would have been all over the place on him. Some teams probably had him undraftable due to size and his knees (and maybe off-field / personality stuff); obviously at least one team had him as a first-rounder. So a McShay / Kiper has to synthesize that into a concrete ranking that's going to be somewhere in the middle, but in actuality he's going to be drafted towards the higher end because almost by definition the team that values the player highest is going to draft him. Belichick discusses this phenomenon in one of the Holley books with respect to draft Sebastian Vollmer. I'd be surprised if the Patriots were the only team that had Easley as a first-round talent, and I think it's almost a certainty that he would have been gone by their next pick.

 

[Hoodie Sleeves]

Where are you getting that figure out of curiosity? I saw something like 33 as average CAV for the 29th pick when I was looking at this earlier and Watson was something like 36 for his career I thought.

EDIT: Actually more like 31.5, percents are hard.

PFR has his CAV as 45 (which for some reason yesterday I thought was higher - 55 or so) - and 29 was the number I found as the average for picks 16-32. So not double, but significantly better than you'd expect out of the pick (and the number for pick 29 is probably much lower than the average for 16-32).

I don't think the average fan realizes how many 1st round picks don't really amount to anything, and have ridiculous expectations. The CAV expectation for the 1st overall pick is only about 60 - which is about what Jerod Mayo produced - even with two seasons almost completely lost to injury, a season as a backup, and a career that ended before 30.

Easley's career so far clearly isn't what you want, but if you're continually drafting low, you need to take shots at high ceiling guys who carry risk, Easley has the talent to be very good, but doesn't seem to have the health or attitude. That's the risk of these sort of picks - Rob Gronkowski, Sebastian Vollmer, etc are the upside. You win some, you lose some.

 

[amarshal2]

True, but with the injuries he was most commonly expected to go in the second round or later.

I'm not saying mock draft position is any kind of accurate predictor of player quality, nor do I withdraw my trust in Bill. But I am saying taking Easley was by no means a simple or chalk selection. They appear to have reached, and it did not turn out well.

I'd be surprised if the Patriots were the only team that had Easley as a first-round talent, and I think it's almost a certainty that he would have been gone by their next pick.

For what it's worth, there were rumors he wouldn't have been around 3 picks later, never mind 32 picks later.

When the first-round prospect the Seahawks targeted was drafted out from under them, they decided to trade the No. 32 overall pick to the Vikings.

So who was the player Seattle wanted at the back end of the first round?
According to NFL Media Insider Ian Rapoport, it was Florida defensive tackle Dominique Easley, who was taken by thePatriots with the 29th pick.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000349566/article/seahawks-traded-down-after-patriots-picked-easley

Via the SeattlePI.com, the Seahawks were visibly deflated when the Patriots took Florida defensive tackle Dominique Easley 29th overall.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/05/09/seahawks-bailed-out-after-missing-on-dominique-easley/

(I can't help but notice the use of a certain word in a loosely football related context.)

 

[Stitch01]

PFR has his CAV as 45 (which for some reason yesterday I thought was higher - 55 or so) - and 29 was the number I found as the average for picks 16-32. So not double, but significantly better than you'd expect out of the pick (and the number for pick 29 is probably much lower than the average for 16-32).

I don't think the average fan realizes how many 1st round picks don't really amount to anything, and have ridiculous expectations. The CAV expectation for the 1st overall pick is only about 60 - which is about what Jerod Mayo produced - even with two seasons almost completely lost to injury, a season as a backup, and a career that ended before 30.

Easley's career so far clearly isn't what you want, but if you're continually drafting low, you need to take shots at high ceiling guys who carry risk, Easley has the talent to be very good, but doesn't seem to have the health or attitude. That's the risk of these sort of picks - Rob Gronkowski, Sebastian Vollmer, etc are the upside. You win some, you lose some.

OK I see the difference, I should have said Career Approximate Value which is slightly different because it tries to overweight peak seasons.

By this study, Watson was a just better than average player for a 29th pick.

https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/

Completely agree with your point though. First rounders are valuable, but the idea that a first rounder is a lock above average player or 6 year average starter or anything like that is a myth.

 

[ifmanis5]

https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/

Thanks for posting that. The draft value discussion here has been good. Probably worthy of a whole other thread.

 

[Shelterdog]

I think analysis like this misunderstands how the draft works. Some players are higher-variance than others, and given Easley's background, it's safe to say that teams would have been all over the place on him. Some teams probably had him undraftable due to size and his knees (and maybe off-field / personality stuff); obviously at least one team had him as a first-rounder. So a McShay / Kiper has to synthesize that into a concrete ranking that's going to be somewhere in the middle, but in actuality he's going to be drafted towards the higher end because almost by definition the team that values the player highest is going to draft him. Belichick discusses this phenomenon in one of the Holley books with respect to draft Sebastian Vollmer. I'd be surprised if the Patriots were the only team that had Easley as a first-round talent, and I think it's almost a certainty that he would have been gone by their next pick.

It also sort of looks like NE did not like the talent available in that draft from 20-100. Even though they had some extra picks to spend they didn't move up in rounds 1 or 2 to grab a particular player, they moved back from round 3, and they drafted a QB high.