Mods, I don't know if this should have its own thread or should be merged into the draft thread. It's not about drafting any particular player or even the 2014 draft, but a larger draft idea in general. You make the call.
The NBA is trying to walk a fine line with the draft, and with the age of entry into their league from college. Years ago, of course, you could draft anyone, and if you were in high school, you could go straight to college. If you were an underclassman, you had to wait until your class graduated before you could enter the league. Then the rules changed, and you could no longer draft anyone until they had completed their freshman year of college (or had gone to play overseas).
This has created a lot of one-and-done players, who, for obvious reasons, couldn't care less about college. Some believe this has made the college game worse, and has been unfair to the players - after all, why, if a great employment opportunity was available to you at age 18, would you have to be forced to wait a whole year to accept that, while in the meantime all kinds of bad things could happen to you?
For the NBA, it means the players coming into the league are a year older, their bodies and games a year more mature. Theoretically, it makes for a better NBA product.
It's not an easy problem to solve.
Here's my proposed solution. NBA teams can draft anyone who will be 18 years or older by the time NBA camps open up in October. They don't need to declare themselves eligible; teams can simply draft anyone who declares himself to be eligible for the draft. But, if that player decides to stay in school, that team still retains his rights (think Larry Bird, though the rules were slightly different then…same principle though) until he chooses to leave school and enter the league. When he comes out, his pay reflects the current (as in, the year he comes out) pay scale for rookies. Thus, the longer he waits, the "more" money he stands to make on his contract (though, of course, he loses whatever interest he could have earned by making the money earlier and investing it wisely).
This article shows the rookie pay scale: http://www.forbes.com/sites/aliciajessop/2012/06/28/the-structure-of-nba-rookie-contracts/
So let's consider a hypothetical: Joel Embiid (and let's use Forbes' numbers, though they're a couple of years old). Let's say the Bucks have the 1st pick and take Embiid. His rookie contract would be worth:
Year 1: $4,286,900
Year 2: $4,479,800
Year 3: $4,672,700
If he decided, for some reason, to wait a year, his pay scale becomes:
Year 1: $4,286,900 --> $4,738,200
Year 2: $4,479,800 --> $4,931,100
Year 3: $4,672,700 --> $5,124,000
So the longer Embiid waits, the more money his contract is worth. So it is in his best interest to wait. He knows he has the money coming, though he risks an injury. He also knows his future NBA destination. Perhaps it's in his best interest to wait not only because of the money, but also because the team might look different (better?) if he waits a year.
So what's the advantages of this system for teams? They could draft the player they want even if they might not be able to use him right away. So you're Milwaukee and you draft a guy (Embiid) who is waffling between returning to Kansas and entering the draft. You say, sure, let's draft him, and let the college team develop him for one more year. We pick him, he doesn't use up a year of his rookie contract, and Kansas gets to keep him longer (maybe more than one year). Thus, he enters the league a far more finished product, and what Milwaukee ends up getting is a better player for the money.
They also get to "stack" their team in some way. Perhaps adding Embiid is enough to move them from 15 wins up to 25 wins. Who knows. That worsens their draft position for the following draft. This way, they get Embiid, but still suck royally, and so get another top 3 pick in the 2015 draft. So they add another stud instead of a guy in the 8-10 range in the draft. If they're willing to wait for the guy to come out, they can own the rights to the guy they want.
What's the advantages of this system for the player? They still have to "declare" for the draft - that is, make themselves eligible to be drafted. So if they have potential but not polish at age 18, a team might draft him in the second round, thus slotting him in for little money. But if he's does that and gets drafted in the second round, he might figure, for that little money, it's worth it for me to stay in school. And when I come out, at least I’ll make a little more. Regardless, he can make an informed decision. And if he thinks this might be the case for him, he can always simply not declare for the draft and stay in school, hoping to improve his draft position the traditional way. Moreover, the longer a player stays in school, theoretically, anyway, the more education he would receive. Also, they are more “free” – if they’re ready for the NBA right out of high school (and they are age 18), why should they have to wait a year to play? They could play right away if they wanted to.
What’s the advantages of this system for colleges? I believe it would mean that more players stay in school longer, thus improving the quality of the college game. Instead of a flood of one-and-dones, you might end up with players staying two or even three (or –gasp!– four years.
What’s the advantages of this system for the NBA? It gives them more mature players entering the league. That will improve the quality of the NBA game. It also creates an exciting new dynamic for teams – the ability to pick who they want, even if they have to wait a year or two to see that pick actually enter the league. It also allows the players to develop on the dime of the colleges rather than the NBA’s.
Downsides for teams: There is some risk involved, of course. You want to draft a player but you are not sure they will actually play in the league that year. So you’re not positive when you’ll actually be able to have this player you covet suit up for you. And you’re risking that he injures himself while playing in college, thus ruining your draft pick. Of course, if that happens, you don’t have to pay him.
Downsides for players: They can't really improve their draft stock. That is, if they're a freshman with some promise, but not polish, they might be a 2nd round pick and be slotted accordingly. But then why stay in school and develop more, when they can't be re-drafted higher (and thus make more money)?
Downsides for colleges: None that I can think of. The recruiting for the next season is done by the time the NBA draft comes around, and the drafted player would need to decide whether he is actually entering the league by the fall. I suppose there may be a few cases where recruits are still deciding where to go and a college isn’t positive whether a player is staying or going to the NBA, so they aren’t sure if they have an opening available. But those would be rare.
Downsides for the NBA: None that I can think of. Would this encourage more tanking? I don’t know. I suspect it would mean that the NBA would get better, more finished players entering the league. It would allow for better development while they’re in school rather than in the NBA or the D-League. So the NBA might not have to pay them to improve at those ages.
What do you guys think of this? Is this a feasible system? What do you see as the upsides and downsides to it? Would the league and the players’ union ever want a system like this?
The NBA is trying to walk a fine line with the draft, and with the age of entry into their league from college. Years ago, of course, you could draft anyone, and if you were in high school, you could go straight to college. If you were an underclassman, you had to wait until your class graduated before you could enter the league. Then the rules changed, and you could no longer draft anyone until they had completed their freshman year of college (or had gone to play overseas).
This has created a lot of one-and-done players, who, for obvious reasons, couldn't care less about college. Some believe this has made the college game worse, and has been unfair to the players - after all, why, if a great employment opportunity was available to you at age 18, would you have to be forced to wait a whole year to accept that, while in the meantime all kinds of bad things could happen to you?
For the NBA, it means the players coming into the league are a year older, their bodies and games a year more mature. Theoretically, it makes for a better NBA product.
It's not an easy problem to solve.
Here's my proposed solution. NBA teams can draft anyone who will be 18 years or older by the time NBA camps open up in October. They don't need to declare themselves eligible; teams can simply draft anyone who declares himself to be eligible for the draft. But, if that player decides to stay in school, that team still retains his rights (think Larry Bird, though the rules were slightly different then…same principle though) until he chooses to leave school and enter the league. When he comes out, his pay reflects the current (as in, the year he comes out) pay scale for rookies. Thus, the longer he waits, the "more" money he stands to make on his contract (though, of course, he loses whatever interest he could have earned by making the money earlier and investing it wisely).
This article shows the rookie pay scale: http://www.forbes.com/sites/aliciajessop/2012/06/28/the-structure-of-nba-rookie-contracts/
So let's consider a hypothetical: Joel Embiid (and let's use Forbes' numbers, though they're a couple of years old). Let's say the Bucks have the 1st pick and take Embiid. His rookie contract would be worth:
Year 1: $4,286,900
Year 2: $4,479,800
Year 3: $4,672,700
If he decided, for some reason, to wait a year, his pay scale becomes:
Year 1: $4,286,900 --> $4,738,200
Year 2: $4,479,800 --> $4,931,100
Year 3: $4,672,700 --> $5,124,000
So the longer Embiid waits, the more money his contract is worth. So it is in his best interest to wait. He knows he has the money coming, though he risks an injury. He also knows his future NBA destination. Perhaps it's in his best interest to wait not only because of the money, but also because the team might look different (better?) if he waits a year.
So what's the advantages of this system for teams? They could draft the player they want even if they might not be able to use him right away. So you're Milwaukee and you draft a guy (Embiid) who is waffling between returning to Kansas and entering the draft. You say, sure, let's draft him, and let the college team develop him for one more year. We pick him, he doesn't use up a year of his rookie contract, and Kansas gets to keep him longer (maybe more than one year). Thus, he enters the league a far more finished product, and what Milwaukee ends up getting is a better player for the money.
They also get to "stack" their team in some way. Perhaps adding Embiid is enough to move them from 15 wins up to 25 wins. Who knows. That worsens their draft position for the following draft. This way, they get Embiid, but still suck royally, and so get another top 3 pick in the 2015 draft. So they add another stud instead of a guy in the 8-10 range in the draft. If they're willing to wait for the guy to come out, they can own the rights to the guy they want.
What's the advantages of this system for the player? They still have to "declare" for the draft - that is, make themselves eligible to be drafted. So if they have potential but not polish at age 18, a team might draft him in the second round, thus slotting him in for little money. But if he's does that and gets drafted in the second round, he might figure, for that little money, it's worth it for me to stay in school. And when I come out, at least I’ll make a little more. Regardless, he can make an informed decision. And if he thinks this might be the case for him, he can always simply not declare for the draft and stay in school, hoping to improve his draft position the traditional way. Moreover, the longer a player stays in school, theoretically, anyway, the more education he would receive. Also, they are more “free” – if they’re ready for the NBA right out of high school (and they are age 18), why should they have to wait a year to play? They could play right away if they wanted to.
What’s the advantages of this system for colleges? I believe it would mean that more players stay in school longer, thus improving the quality of the college game. Instead of a flood of one-and-dones, you might end up with players staying two or even three (or –gasp!– four years.
What’s the advantages of this system for the NBA? It gives them more mature players entering the league. That will improve the quality of the NBA game. It also creates an exciting new dynamic for teams – the ability to pick who they want, even if they have to wait a year or two to see that pick actually enter the league. It also allows the players to develop on the dime of the colleges rather than the NBA’s.
Downsides for teams: There is some risk involved, of course. You want to draft a player but you are not sure they will actually play in the league that year. So you’re not positive when you’ll actually be able to have this player you covet suit up for you. And you’re risking that he injures himself while playing in college, thus ruining your draft pick. Of course, if that happens, you don’t have to pay him.
Downsides for players: They can't really improve their draft stock. That is, if they're a freshman with some promise, but not polish, they might be a 2nd round pick and be slotted accordingly. But then why stay in school and develop more, when they can't be re-drafted higher (and thus make more money)?
Downsides for colleges: None that I can think of. The recruiting for the next season is done by the time the NBA draft comes around, and the drafted player would need to decide whether he is actually entering the league by the fall. I suppose there may be a few cases where recruits are still deciding where to go and a college isn’t positive whether a player is staying or going to the NBA, so they aren’t sure if they have an opening available. But those would be rare.
Downsides for the NBA: None that I can think of. Would this encourage more tanking? I don’t know. I suspect it would mean that the NBA would get better, more finished players entering the league. It would allow for better development while they’re in school rather than in the NBA or the D-League. So the NBA might not have to pay them to improve at those ages.
What do you guys think of this? Is this a feasible system? What do you see as the upsides and downsides to it? Would the league and the players’ union ever want a system like this?
