Miami is putting Tua in a good position to succeed. I think Waddle really opens things up. Guy seems to be uncoverable 1v1, particularly in those short area, horizontal routes. He’s pretty horrifying to watch from the opposing fan’s POV. Tua seems accurate and on time on those throws too.
Waddle looks great when given space. I wont pretend to know how good he is at getting separation, but that's my big question for him going forward. People have to give Tyreek space because of his speed, but also because hes built like such a chode (both physically and mentally) that hes actually able to fight off aggresive presses. Guys get fucking killed trying to press him, so they just decide to give him the 10 yard cushion. He really is unique.
The Patriots pressed very little week 1. I'm sure a lot of that had to do with faith in their corners and wanting to force Tua to execute. In fact, I'm positive of it, because Miami ran the RPO so often and effectively that youd think the Patriots would have countered by pressing the corners to (A) confuse Tuas ability to read the option, (B) provide support closer to the line of scrimmage against the run, and (C) dictate the flow of individual plays. It's why I'm less concerned about the Patriots defense long term than others (*cough*
@Super Nomario *cough*).
As the weeks progress and Miami continues to lean on the RPO, teams are going to get more aggressive with the secondary. Waddles going to have to prove - sooner rather than later - that he has the ability to consistently beat the press. If he does, the offense will continue to grow as teams will have to continue to give space against the RPO. If he cant, the offense will have to pivot and lean on Tua more.
And, for what it's worth, that's my concern for the Dolphins offense. I'm sure the Dolphins are leaning into the RPO for a few reasons, but I worry one of the major ones is to minimize the amount of reads Tua has to make in the passing game. He was accurate in college, but only to his first read. His drop in accuracy from first read to second read was historically bad (paging
@SMU_Sox ). It remained a problem last year, and it feels like Flores is constructing an offense around that weakness. Its smart, but also concerning to build an offensive philosophy around a players weakness and not a players strength. In fact, I'm not sure what Tuas strength actually is. But I'm not trying to turn this into a Tua bashing session. I've made my opinion about him clear, so the chips can fall where they fall.
The offense deserves more credit for killing the last 4+ minutes of the game. To me, that’s what’s most annoying about the, “Patriots should have won the game” narrative I’ve heard on virtually every national sports show I listen to.
Because, let’s be honest, how many of us thought that was going to be the most likely scenario at that point? I hoped it would be, because I want this season to be different, but I would not have bet on it playing out the way it did.
I’d seen that movie car too many times the past decade plus, and it virtually always ends with a punt and the 19-17 loss, especially against a team like New England, on the road.
So, if I’m looking for positives, and how things may have seemed better or different, the last 4 minutes may have been the biggest to me.
It's frustrating when your team doesnt get respect after a win. Patriots fans - all fans, I suppose - know that feeling. But the Dolphins won. And they did enough to win. After watching the game, I feel really good about the Patriots going forward. Hell, they're 0-1, and after the loss I put money on the over for their win total as well as to win the division. Browns injury hurt the offensive flow, they'll open up the playbook for Mac more, turnovers wont keep happening, Gilmore can dynamically change the face of the defense, etc. etc etc.
But no matter the silver linings, the team is still 0-1. Because the Dolphins beat them. And they deserved to beat them. "What if Harris didnt fumble?" What if Tua doesnt throw that pick? "Patriots had too many penalties!" Dolphins got a questionable (although fair, IMO) roughing the passer call in a really tough spot, too.
Theres a million what ifs, and none of them matter. The Dolphins played well enough to win and, as you said, they ran the clock out - even with boneheaded penalties of their own on the final drive - and earned it.
New England also fumbled 4 times, Miami recovered twice. Mac Jones avoided Xavien Howard like he had a superstrain of Covid.
Everyone says Miami can’t rely on turnovers like they did last year, and yet, they keep producing them.
Also, on the final drive, Tua runs the naked boot, gets called back for holding. 1st and 14 from their own 5, New England with all three timeoutes and the two minute warning. That throw from Tua to Parker was huge. Sets up 2nd and 1.
FiveThirtyEight has Miami v Buffalo as the most important game of the week in terms of playoff implications. If Miami wins, they would go up two games on Buffalo and have a game in hand. I would love to see Miami exercise the Josh Allen boogeyman this week.
It was smart to avoid Howard like the plague. The secondary for this team is legit. If they were able to figure out how to get pressure without so much blitzing, theyd be a top 3 defense.
But, as of last week, they kind of couldnt, even when Brown went down. Players are becoming so use to blitz schemes, that even rookies are able to diagnose it under pressure (Mac did just that).
What Miami DOES do well, though, and is so often overlooked - tackling. Especially in the back seven. To counteract all the blitzes, Mac made the smart play and went with quick passes and dump offs. I dont know what the numbers were, but there were very few broken tackles by Patriots offensive players. If a team is forced to blitz to get pressure, like Miami, you better be able to make open field and 1on1 tackles. They were FANTASTIC at that last week. And that's a clear indicator of solid fundamental coaching. Another feather in the hat for Flores.
All that said - yeah. You cant rely on fumbles. I know anecdotally it feels like they can create more of them, but I know that you know it isnt a sustainable model for success. Every team tries to punch out balls, theres nothing special about Miami doing it. The Jonnu fumble was because he tried to hurdle. The Mac Jones "fumble"? The Stevenson fumble and the Harris fumble were standard tackles with poor ball control. That has nothing to do with the Dolphins, its poor control by Patriot players and variance.