#DFG: Canceling the Noise

[jtn46]

I'm in the second camp, though I think it's almost by coincidence that they were caught for it, because in the Indy game it seems possible they didn't do anything. I don't know what it was they did exactly, I don't think Brady laid out specifics, I think he stated a preference and didn't take no for an answer, and I think probably equipment guys across the league are doing stuff like this, but that's not a defense. I'm perfectly fine with the Patriots being punished as an example, but this is among the worst punishments for any infraction ever, and there's seemingly punishments on the books for this. I think the nfl let public outcry determine how seriously to take this and that is wrong. When the Jets are caught messing with kicking balks, the nfl doesn't spend $5 million to indict the kicker or head coach, so they shouldn't do that here.

 

[Stevie1der]

I think we would all agree that if something did happen, it was along the lines of this: Brady tells JJ he wants balls at 12.5. JM gets balls from official. They feel maybe a touch too hard. JM takes a tiny bit of air out of each ball
in the bathroom just to be safe. No scheme or plan to get balls below 12.5. JM did it hastily in bathroom which is partly why psi readings were all over thr map. Brady not aware at all of this because he trusts ball guys to let officials know how he wants the balls and the rest is out of his hands.

Personally I don't even believe that happened but I wouldn't be shocked if it did. But I highly doubt it was anything beyond that.

 
In my heart, I think that at some point this probably happened, so I voted 2.  I think there is zero direct evidence that anything inappropriate was done to the AFC Championship balls.

 

[AbbyNoho]

It's possible they didn't hand over the balls filled to the appropriate amount, but there is no way in hell they "tampered" with them and released air. No one sane is suggesting that. And, by the rules, it is the ref responsibility to make sure the balls get filled up after they are handed over. 
 
Patriots didn't do anything wrong this time, not even to the minor extent they did something wrong in 'spygate'.

 

[jk333]

 
That clearly was not the question. The question was right above the poll.
 
"Were the balls tampered with?"

By tampered with, do you mean deflated? I think the AEI report shows the balls were not deflated, at all. However, given the text messages and McNally going into the restroom, I'd say there's a chance he was checking to ensure that they weren't at like 15 PSI. 

 

[loshjott]

I'm in the second camp, though I think it's almost by coincidence that they were caught for it, because in the Indy game it seems possible they didn't do anything. I don't know what it was they did exactly, I don't think Brady laid out specifics, I think he stated a preference and didn't take no for an answer, and I think probably equipment guys across the league are doing stuff like this, but that's not a defense. I'm perfectly fine with the Patriots being punished as an example, but this is among the worst punishments for any infraction ever, and there's seemingly punishments on the books for this. I think the nfl let public outcry determine how seriously to take this and that is wrong. When the Jets are caught messing with kicking balks, the nfl doesn't spend $5 million to indict the kicker or head coach, so they shouldn't do that here.

 
I agree with this, pretty much.  Though I'd replace "public outcry" (emphasis mine) with "hatred of Belichick."  Some in the NFL and management of other teams are convinced that Belichick's Pats have gotten away with cheating for years. Thus, this whole fiasco where, if anything was done wrong by the Pats, the punishment so much exceeds the crime. 

 

[amarshal2]

 
Sure. So long as it does include what SeanBerry is asking here and doesn't avoid that issue. But if somebody wanted to parse out more questions to refine our understanding of what the posters here believe, that should be fine.
 
Basically, it would have to be something that adds to this, not just replaces it with something people find more congenial.

 
OK.  But a mod will have to delete this soon before it's got hundreds of responses.
 
Did the Patriots' tamper with the footballs?
I think so
I don't think so
 
If you think the footballs were tampered with, do you think Tom Brady had "general awareness" of the act?
Yes
No
I don't think the balls were deflated
 
If you think the Patriots tampered with the footballs, was the punishment they received fair?
Yes, they deserved it.
No, even though they probably did something, the punishment was over the top
I don't think they deflated the footballs
 
If you said the Patriots tampered with the footballs, what team do you root for?
Patriots
Other
I don't think the footballs were tampered with
 
If you said the Patriots likely did NOT tampered with the footballs, what team do you root for?
Patriots
Other
I think the footballs were tampered with

 

[MuppetAsteriskTalk]

The only thing the Patriots did wrong was Bob Kraft trusted RG again, more than once, to his great detriment.

 

[GregHarris]

 
Picked "NO", but the options weren't great.

 

[AB in DC]

If "Other" was an option, I would have voted for that.
 
 
My position hasn't changed a whole lot since the Wells report.  I think that, sometime after the Jets game, Brady told JJ/JM, "Don't ever let the refs overinflate those balls again!".  AFC Championship game comes, it's an absolute zoo, JM isn't sure what the refs did to the balls, he decides to let a little air out out of a few balls just in case.  Probably not even all 12 balls, just the ones he thinks the refs pumped up.  JJ had already given JM a needle in case the refs needed one.  JM doesn't mean to drop any balls below 12.5, but poking a needle isn't very precise, so maybe a couple of balls end up low.  All he's thinking about is that JJ gets yelled at if something is screwy with the balls, so he thinks he's just doing JJ a favor, not actually affecting the game one way or another.

 

[Devizier]

I take the Charles Pierce view, but my opinion doesn't mean a goddamn thing. Neither should the NFL's for that matter.

 

[jk333]

Brady tells JJ he wants balls at 12.5. JM gets balls from official. They feel maybe a touch too hard. JM takes a tiny bit of air out of each ball in the bathroom just to be safe. No scheme or plan to get balls below 12.5. JM did it hastily in bathroom which is partly why psi readings were all over thr map. Brady not aware at all of this because he trusts ball guys to let officials know how he wants the balls and the rest is out of his hands.

I agree and this makes sense but there isn't much evidence to support it. The ball the Colts intercepted was tested and it had the correct air in it. For the that ball, they got readings of 11.35-11.75. I agree that it's curious. I just think variability could be from poor gauges, poor technique using the gauges and/or allowing the balls to warm up. Basically, this was the worst sting ever. 

 

[Reverend]

I really don't think the poll options are all that terrible. They are not precise, but they do get to the larger question of, "Do the members of this forum believe tampering with the balls was happening?" Or rather, what percentage do or do not?

That's not an uninteresting thing to know.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Science suggests nothing happened at the time it was alleged to have happened. Why that's not enough for anyone objectively looking at this thing is beyond me. People ask, "well why would the NFL want to punish its biggest star?" My answer is, "I don't know, but it's undeniable they leaked false information about the PSI levels of footballs and never corrected the information." Once you get to that point, it's not difficult to see the NFL has some agenda, whatever it may be.

Beyond that, even if guilty, the punishment is preposterous. The Jets did the same exact thing in 2009, a staffer was suspended, and nobody even cared enough to go after the kicker. In fact, nobody even cared enough to report it, as far as I can remember. What the Falcons did was probably worse, repeated for 2 years, and they lost a 5th. The bargained for penalty for this offense is a suggested 25k fine. There is no objective argument that this supposed offense is worth anywhere near the penalty. The truth is that, if this was another team, nobody would care and the punishment would have been so far below what the Patriots got that we'd already have forgotten about it.

Edit - I could potentially see a scenario similar to AB in DC's, but at that point we'd be talking .2 PSI or so. That's not logical, but McNally isn't a genius.

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

I have not seen any evidence showing that the balls were tampered with or that the balls were brought to the field for the first half under the minimum psi allowed. Both AEI and MacKinnon prove this and the Exponent report has been discredited.

 

[snowmanny]

A lot of the sentiment against the Patriots seems to be that 1) "Something happened" or 2) The Patriots are cheaters so they're probably guilty of something or 3) Brady looks/acts guilty.

The actual evidence of guilt is pretty weak in my opinion.

But it's sort of like the evidence
that convicted Amanda Knox.

 

[cshea]

Call me naive and a homer, but I don't think they did anything. Even the two stooges. I still think it is ridiculous that the prime evidence is 90 second bathroom pit stop. I mean, I guess it is possible, but do people really think the guy went in there and deflated 12 footballs by .2 psi in 90 seconds?

My guess is that, along the way during the season/playoffs someone else measured an intercepted ball (Ravens?) that was low. That got around the league. Colts take it a step further by alerting the league, and also taking it into their own hands to measure the Jackson ball. Nobody in the NFL had any idea about the IGL and how this could happen naturally. And away we go.

 

[Seonachan]

Since the Wells Report was released, I've never heard anyone proclaim their belief that Brady wanted the balls to be inflated somewhere between 12.1-12.4 psi, which is after all what the Wells Report concludes. Everyone who thinks there was intentional deflating seems to believe either that McNally was overzealous or haphazard in an attempt to ensure they were all at 12.5, or believes the 12.5 limit in the rule book is sufficient cause to shut down critical thinking on the matter altogether.
 
Does anyone buy Brady insisting on 12.1-12.14? Because the Imprecise McNally theory is the only plausible alternative for which there is even circumstantial evidence.

 

[RIFan]

I think in the past they have screwed with the footballs when officials over inflated. It probably was not a regular course of action and not an attempt to go below 12.5, but it's entirely reasonable to think that word was out that they tampered after inspection on some occasions.  The Ravens, Colts, and Kensil went on something more than a hunch.  I think there is no evidence that they tampered with the AFC championship game balls.  I think Brady is at most guilty of telling the Dorito Dinks that they better make sure good balls make it to the field and not that he concocted some elaborate cheating scheme.   I also think that anyone who feels the Patriots and Brady are angels in this whole thing are being deliberately naive.  Finally, none of it matters since the PSI range is something that someone pulled out of their ass a long time ago without any measurable impact on the game.

 

[djbayko]

Ha!  Guess who just deleted his tweet.

I love how they choreographed the deletion of the tweet a day after he went on a friendly radio show to explain it all away with "I don't know how to delete tweets". Cute. Talk about a Chewbacca defense.

 

[ivanvamp]

Science suggests nothing happened at the time it was alleged to have happened. Why that's not enough for anyone objectively looking at this thing is beyond me. People ask, "well why would the NFL want to punish its biggest star?" My answer is, "I don't know, but it's undeniable they leaked false information about the PSI levels of footballs and never corrected the information." Once you get to that point, it's not difficult to see the NFL has some agenda, whatever it may be.

Beyond that, even if guilty, the punishment is preposterous. The Jets did the same exact thing in 2009, a staffer was suspended, and nobody even cared enough to go after the kicker. In fact, nobody even cared enough to report it, as far as I can remember. What the Falcons did was probably worse, repeated for 2 years, and they lost a 5th. The bargained for penalty for this offense is a suggested 25k fine. There is no objective argument that this supposed offense is worth anywhere near the penalty. The truth is that, if this was another team, nobody would care and the punishment would have been so far below what the Patriots got that we'd already have forgotten about it.

Edit - I could potentially see a scenario similar to AB in DC's, but at that point we'd be talking .2 PSI or so. That's not logical, but McNally isn't a genius.

 
The two examples we know of where a team was actually caught tampering with footballs were the 2009 Jets and 2014 Panthers.  Both involved fiddling with the air pressure to get it where their key players wanted.  
 
Neither team faced a penalty at all.  
 
So we have documented, hard, evidence that Goodell and the NFL never ever really cared about this issue before, and have been utterly capricious in how they've handled penalties for football tampering.
 
That even assumes the Patriots did something - which the science shows they almost certainly did not.

 

[m0ckduck]

I honestly don't know if the two gameday employees did anything with the footballs. The punishment is preposterous and there is zero evidence that Tom Brady did anything punishable.

 
This is where I'm at— it actually feels demeaning to weigh in on 'do I think Lenny and Squiggy let air out of the balls?' as it reroutes the conversation from where it should be focused, which is on the utter lack of evidence connecting Brady to the case and (actually frightening) disregard for due process and privacy rights shown by the league. Anyone who states with certainty that 'no air was let out of the footballs' is presuming to know a lot about the inner minds of JJ/JM— two guys I personally wouldn't know from Siegfried and Roy. But you have to go where the evidence takes you, which in this case is nowhere. 

 

[yecul]

Insufficient evidence. Looking past that tiny detail I will say nothing happened or that there was no conspiracy. All of the above is possible, but I see nothing or DoritoDink acting on his own as being the most likely. I would not fault Brady if he said "make sure they're right" and he interpreted it as bathroom time.
 
The punishment and procedure and investigation are way way out of whack no matter what.

I have no option to vote in this poll. The closest is nothing, but if DD put a needle in the ball regardless of intent or conspiracy then I see that as an infraction and not to be excused by "everyone else is doing it". But, see the previous sentence in that event.

 

[yecul]

The most unreasonable stance in this case is those of certainty, IMO. In either direction. 

 

[Leather]

I think in the past they have screwed with the footballs when officials over inflated. It probably was not a regular course of action and not an attempt to go below 12.5, but it's entirely reasonable to think that word was out that they tampered after inspection on some occasions.  The Ravens, Colts, and Kensil went on something more than a hunch.  I think there is no evidence that they tampered with the AFC championship game balls.  I think Brady is at most guilty of telling the Dorito Dinks that they better make sure good balls make it to the field and not that he concocted some elaborate cheating scheme.   I also think that anyone who feels the Patriots and Brady are angels in this whole thing are being deliberately naive.  Finally, none of it matters since the PSI range is something that someone pulled out of their ass a long time ago without any measurable impact on the game.

 
I think that Harbaugh, smart guy that he is, knew in the back of his head somewhere that balls tend to get a little softer in cold weather, and after the "Know the rulebook" quip from Brady, he tipped off the Colts that "Hey, you know balls get soft in cold weather, right? So technically, the Patriots wins up there in foxboro on cold days are all with balls that are out of spec.  Wouldn't it be hilarious to report on that?  Know the rule yourself, pretty boy."  This simultaneously (and simply) explains why the Colts balls were in line with the rulebook; because they inflated them a hair extra to ensure they didn't get hoisted on their own petard.
 
I firmly believe that the most plausible scenario is the one where Brady has gone off on the ball boys to make the balls as close to 12.5 as possible within the rules.  This is supported by the Wells Report's own finding that Brady told them to present refs with a copy of the very rule that he is now accused of breaking to tell them that the balls should not be over-inflated.
 
I suppose it is possible that the refs sometimes re-overinflated the balls after they were presented by the ball boys, which the ball boys rectified by covertly letting some air out.  However, even if that's the case, linking that to Brady is completely unjust, and moreover there is no direct evidence of that.  

 

[KFP]

I've removed about a dozen posts from this thread.
 
There's nothing wrong with this poll or the thread. If even posing the question hurts your sensibilities, go somewhere else. This isn't giving Berry carte blanche, but he's acting like an adult, and you should try to all act like big boys, too.

 

[Ralphwiggum]

Given the poll options I voted no. But my opinion most closely aligns to what Stitch wrote:
 
 

I honestly don't know if the two gameday employees did anything with the footballs. The punishment is preposterous and there is zero evidence that Tom Brady did anything punishable. Anyone who thinks the punishment is appropriate is either not following along or a fan of a team that can't beat the Pats on the field so takes their victories wherever they can get them.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

 
I think that Harbaugh, smart guy that he is, knew in the back of his head somewhere that balls tend to get a little softer in cold weather, and after the "Know the rulebook" quip from Brady, he tipped off the Colts that "Hey, you know balls get soft in cold weather, right? So technically, the Patriots wins up there in foxboro on cold days are all with balls that are out of spec.  Wouldn't it be hilarious to report on that?  Know the rule yourself, pretty boy."
 
I firmly believe that the most plausible scenario is the one where Brady has gone off on the ball boys to make the balls as close to 12.5 as possible within the rules.  This is supported by the Wells Report's own finding that Brady told them to present refs with a copy of the very rule that he is now accused of breaking to tell them that the balls should not be over-inflated.
 
I suppose it is possible that the refs sometimes re-overinflated the balls after they were presented by the ball boys, which the ball boys rectified by covertly letting some air out.  However, even if that's the case, linking that to Brady is completely unjust.

Isn't One of the Baltimore D players screaming the ball is as hard as a rock! In one of the NFL networks clips from that game? On my phone so I can't check.

 

[Seels]

I really don't think they did. I don't understand why they would, don't think that there is a tangible benefit to it at all, and Bellichick and Brady both came off as very sincere. I think they push the limits of the rules in a lot of areas, but I really do NOT believe they did anything nefarious here.

 

[Dogman]

Not enough evidence to support such a charge. Penalty is ridiculous. 
 
Science.
 
You are the Geno Smith of poll making. 

 

[RIFan]

 
I think that Harbaugh, smart guy that he is, knew in the back of his head somewhere that balls tend to get a little softer in cold weather, and after the "Know the rulebook" quip from Brady, he tipped off the Colts that "Hey, you know balls get soft in cold weather, right? So technically, the Patriots wins up there in foxboro on cold days are all with balls that are out of spec.  Wouldn't it be hilarious to report on that?  Know the rule yourself, pretty boy."  This simultaneously (and simply) explains why the Colts balls were in line with the rulebook; because they inflated them a hair extra to ensure they didn't get hoisted on their own petard.
 
I firmly believe that the most plausible scenario is the one where Brady has gone off on the ball boys to make the balls as close to 12.5 as possible within the rules.  This is supported by the Wells Report's own finding that Brady told them to present refs with a copy of the very rule that he is now accused of breaking to tell them that the balls should not be over-inflated.
 
I suppose it is possible that the refs sometimes re-overinflated the balls after they were presented by the ball boys, which the ball boys rectified by covertly letting some air out.  However, even if that's the case, linking that to Brady is completely unjust, and moreover there is no direct evidence of that.  

That's a good take.   Harbaugh probably thought passing that on to the Colts would result in nothing more than the officials looking out for the balls on the softer side that Brady likes and tossing those aside during the game.  Just a ploy at gamesmanship and an attempt to get in Brady's head. 

 

[Mooch]

I think in the past they have screwed with the footballs when officials over inflated. It probably was not a regular course of action and not an attempt to go below 12.5, but it's entirely reasonable to think that word was out that they tampered after inspection on some occasions.  The Ravens, Colts, and Kensil went on something more than a hunch.  I think there is no evidence that they tampered with the AFC championship game balls.  I think Brady is at most guilty of telling the Dorito Dinks that they better make sure good balls make it to the field and not that he concocted some elaborate cheating scheme.   I also think that anyone who feels the Patriots and Brady are angels in this whole thing are being deliberately naive.  Finally, none of it matters since the PSI range is something that someone pulled out of their ass a long time ago without any measurable impact on the game.

This is more or less my opinion as well. I do think that Brady's complaint about the overinflated balls in the Jets game may have led to some type of ball deflation at some point but there is simply no evidence of this occurring in the AFC Championship Game. It's a gamesmanship type of offense that happens in every other sport with far less attention and penalties.

 

[Laser Show]

Call me naive and a homer, but I don't think they did anything. Even the two stooges. I still think it is ridiculous that the prime evidence is 90 second bathroom pit stop. I mean, I guess it is possible, but do people really think the guy went in there and deflated 12 footballs by .2 psi in 90 seconds?

My guess is that, along the way during the season/playoffs someone else measured an intercepted ball (Ravens?) that was low. That got around the league. Colts take it a step further by alerting the league, and also taking it into their own hands to measure the Jackson ball. Nobody in the NFL had any idea about the IGL and how this could happen naturally. And away we go.

 
Imagine if this all ended up happening because there was a slightly defective batch of footballs that the Patriots got from the manufacturer? My head would explode.
 
I'm not going to vote because I'm not sure, but my thought process is essentially: 1) I doubt they did anything intentionally, based on how far they've dug in on this, 2) If they did it was probably something like tims4wins said, 3) even if at some Brady said "take air out of the footballs after the ref checks them" I honestly don't care. Because I'm sure similar things are happening around the league, whether that's with footballs or something else. (That comes back to my opinion that everyone should calm down about the "moral integrity" of sports, but that's not something that belongs in this thread).

 

[geoduck no quahog]

No one will ever know if they did or didn't. Ever.
 
Both Exponent and AEI assessments are flawed.
 
Any assessment that uses "averages" of measurements taken by un-certified and obviously inaccurate equipment, in unknown environmental conditions, at an unknown time, with an unknown starting point - is simply full of shit.
 
I have no idea if the balls were purposefully deflated...and no one else does either.

 

[EL Jeffe]

I voted NO because I do not think the footballs were tampered with. However, I actually disagree with the poll comment indicating that the Patriots didn't do anything wrong.
 
McNally taking the footballs to the bathroom was against protocol. Yes, the officials all watched him take the footballs and lumber down the hallway and no one tried to stop him or even appeared to give a crap; however, just because no one cared doesn't make it "right." If he had to take a piss, he should have taken a piss beore getting the footballs. How much damage could he do in 90 seconds? I don't think he did any damage (and the inflation levels seem to support that), but it still shouldn't have happened. 

 

[drbretto]

I do not believe the balls were illegally deflated. I do believe the evidence actually backs this up quite well. There's room for interpretation because not all of the facts are completely known, but even in the worst case scenario, the balls would have been deflated by such a tiny amount that it wouldn't make sense to have been done in the first place (0.2 PSI range). 
 
I don't believe it was so much a "conspiracy" that lead to any of this. Just a misunderstanding and some massive ego problems inside the NFL. Too much emotion and misinformation turned it into a world-wide witch hunt and everything the NFL has done since is an attempt to justify starting the fire in the first place. 
 
You can look at it two ways: Assume Brady's guilt and run with it, or start by imagining a world where he actually WAS innocent. All of the facts line up just fine and make perfect logical sense ONLY if you start with Brady's innocence. If he was guilty, to have gone to this level of "cover up" that they are being accused of would require one to believe there was an actual, meticulous and complicated consipiracy to deflate footballs by such a miniscule amount while accurately predicting this kind of fallout to anticipate it. Goodell being an egomaniacal prick, I can get behind. A conspiracy to gain very little to no advantage just wouldn't make sense from a risk/reward standpoint.
 
Now, that said, I think if there really was an advantage to gain from doing this, I certainly wouldn't put the Patriots above it any more than any other team. I just don't think it's something anyone ever thought to do it before. This was not a thing at ALL before this and there's no evidence that deflating the balls is any kind of help in the first place. 

 

[TomRicardo]

Yea they probably tried to keep the balls a bit deflated.
 
In the grand scheme of things probably about a traffic ticket offense that the NFL has given Brady 10 - 15 years in jail for.
 
I really don't care if the team does small things to get an advantage.  It would be like saying Jerry Rice should get asterisk next to his name for publicly admitting he cheated using stickum.
 
I mean this isn't like a coach running out onto field and tripping player in a live play.
 
Edit - Salary Cap crap is also a graver offense.

 

[koufax32]

I'm still curious to hear someone's explanation of the science if they think NE/Brady are "guilty of something." It appears the only way for someone to believe this is one of the following:

A. There was a conscious effort to deflate balls by .2-.3 psi in a cold wet game. So I believe Brady and the twins were willing to bend the rules for this tiny bit of air pressure.
B. The laws of nature were temporarily suspended and nefarious deflation accounted for more than just.2-.3 psi.

This all assumes the ref was incorrect in his recollection of which gauge he used as well. So please, someone, even Berry, explain how the science comes into play in your opinion. That's not a challenge or a dare. I honestly want to know how the other side thinks on this.

 

[drbretto]

There are also many reporters and public personalities that have been converted from the last option to the second option, then ultimately to the first option (or hanging between the first two). To my knowledge, no one has been (publicly) converted in the other direction. The longer anyone spends thinking about it, and the deeper they go in, the more likely they are to believe this whole thing is a sham.

 

[drbretto]

So, is 99.13% of SoSH crazy here, or is Goodell just really that big of an asshole?

 

[Super Nomario]

I'm still curious to hear someone's explanation of the science if they think NE/Brady are "guilty of something." It appears the only way for someone to believe this is one of the following:

A. There was a conscious effort to deflate balls by .2-.3 psi in a cold wet game. So I believe Brady and the twins were willing to bend the rules for this tiny bit of air pressure.
B. The laws of nature were temporarily suspended and nefarious deflation accounted for more than just.2-.3 psi.

This all assumes the ref was incorrect in his recollection of which gauge he used as well. So please, someone, even Berry, explain how the science comes into play in your opinion. That's not a challenge or a dare. I honestly want to know how the other side thinks on this.

To be clear, if you make the most uncharitable set of assumptions - the non-logo gauge, the pregame temp being at the lower range, and the halftime temp being at the higher range - you get an unexplained PSI drop averaging about 0.6. Maybe even 0.7 if you start fiddling with the measurement timing.
 
EDIT: sorry, to get to 0.6-0.7 you also have to assume all balls are dry (a wet ball is ~0.2 PSI "lighter").

 

[Chuck Schilling]

I think in the past they have screwed with the footballs when officials over inflated. It probably was not a regular course of action and not an attempt to go below 12.5, but it's entirely reasonable to think that word was out that they tampered after inspection on some occasions.  The Ravens, Colts, and Kensil went on something more than a hunch.  I think there is no evidence that they tampered with the AFC championship game balls.  I think Brady is at most guilty of telling the Dorito Dinks that they better make sure good balls make it to the field and not that he concocted some elaborate cheating scheme.   I also think that anyone who feels the Patriots and Brady are angels in this whole thing are being deliberately naive.  Finally, none of it matters since the PSI range is something that someone pulled out of their ass a long time ago without any measurable impact on the game.

 
 

This is more or less my opinion as well. I do think that Brady's complaint about the overinflated balls in the Jets game may have led to some type of ball deflation at some point but there is simply no evidence of this occurring in the AFC Championship Game. It's a gamesmanship type of offense that happens in every other sport with far less attention and penalties.

I voted #2 for much the same reason - the most reasonable interpretation of the texts from Dorito Dink and his buddy is that they do deflate footballs after inspection when they have the opportunity and the need to keep Brady happy. The science and the potential for sloppy measurement error bars may not clearly demonstrate that it happened before or during the AFCCG, but if I had to wager whether or not it ever happened I'd bet Yes.

 

[steveluck7]

The only thing "wrong" that was done is what there is actual evidence of. McNally took the balls into the bathroom. Science suggests that they were not tampered with and we have no idea if stopping in the bathroom was something he did on any sort of regular basis on his way to the field. But, the rules says he is to bring them directly to the field so he "broke" the rule.
 
also, this specific question is a good one because it's where A LOT of media types draw the line. They will seem to be all aboard the "this is a sham" train and then when they're asked "Do you think they did anything wrong / to the balls?" they invariably say something like "yeah, probably." It's fence sitting of the highest order. Take a stand and stick to it.

 

[amarshal2]

I'm still curious to hear someone's explanation of the science if they think NE/Brady are "guilty of something." It appears the only way for someone to believe this is one of the following:

A. There was a conscious effort to deflate balls by .2-.3 psi in a cold wet game. So I believe Brady and the twins were willing to bend the rules for this tiny bit of air pressure.
B. The laws of nature were temporarily suspended and nefarious deflation accounted for more than just.2-.3 psi.

This all assumes the ref was incorrect in his recollection of which gauge he used as well. So please, someone, even Berry, explain how the science comes into play in your opinion. That's not a challenge or a dare. I honestly want to know how the other side thinks on this.

 
 

To be clear, if you make the most uncharitable set of assumptions - the non-logo gauge, the pregame temp being at the lower range, and the halftime temp being at the higher range - you get an unexplained PSI drop averaging about 0.6. Maybe even 0.7 if you start fiddling with the measurement timing.
 
EDIT: sorry, to get to 0.6-0.7 you also have to assume all balls are dry (a wet ball is ~0.2 PSI "lighter").

 

 
I voted that nothing happened.
 
I have never met someone who thinks the Patriots are guilty who accurately understands the science and can articulate his position.  
 
95% of the people I speak to basically say that they believe the Patriots probably did it because of the circumstantial evidence or because they haven't been paying close attention to such a stupid and boring controversy.  Most of these people are intelligent, well-intentioned people who are not overly biased -- several are Patriots fans.  But their in-going assumption is that the Patriots did it and they have not invested time in confronting their preconceived notions.  If you ask them why, the responses range from pointing at headlines to rather detailed understandings of the circumstantial evidence.  None of them make any arguments about science.
 
Edit: I find SN's devil's advocate scenario illogical for a number of reasons.
 
The best argument, in my mind, is the one Chuck Schilling made while I was writing this:
 

 
 
I voted #2 for much the same reason - the most reasonable interpretation of the texts from Dorito Dink and his buddy is that they do deflate footballs after inspection when they have the opportunity and the need to keep Brady happy. The science and the potential for sloppy measurement error bars may not clearly demonstrate that it happened before or during the AFCCG, but if I had to wager whether or not it ever happened I'd bet Yes.

 

Basically, the procedures were so sloppy we have to throw the science out entirely.  I don't agree, but it's a reasonable position.
 
As for non-science, I find the Dorito Dink texts to be wholly unconvincing.  He texted that he was the "deflator" in May of 2014.  We have direct evidence of Brady being pissed about the balls being inflated to 16 psi during a home Jets game in like October.  Obviously, when he referred to himself as the deflator he wasn't deflating footballs or they never would have been 16 psi during a home Jets game.
 
The Colts accusations completely fall on deaf ears for me.  They thought something was up during their last game which was played in Indianapolis.  Dorito Dink didn't travel to that game and the Patriots didn't have access to the balls outside the view of cameras (of which there are many, if something happened, we'd know.)  Thus, if you believe the Colts, you don't believe the entire bathroom argument for the balls being deflated during the AFCCG.  Now you're really on thin ice.
 
So, basically, either McNally just decided not to deflate the footballs for a home Jets game for no apparent reason and didn't text anything about it being his fault or the texts are irrelevant.   And if you throw out the texts, you've got nothing.

 

[Walpole Joe's Neighbor]

I think it's more probable than not that they didn't tamper with the footballs after they were submitted to refs.
 
This is just my wise ass version of saying I don't know for sure but my opinion is that thus far there's more evidence that they didn't than they did.

 

[Seabass]

I like Occam's razor. It's easy. The science says the balls probably weren't deflated. If they were, it was by a really small amount. The only opportunity for that to have happened was when a guy went into a bathroom for 90 seconds. The most likely thing to have happened is he took a piss, hopefully washed his hands, then left. They grilled the Probable Pisser for a considerable amount of time after the game, and he said he didn't do anything. There's literally no evidence that Brady ever indicated he wanted the balls below 12.5.
 
They probably didn't do anything. I'm really ready for this to be over. It's the stupidest thing that's ever dumbed. 

 

[HomeBrew1901]

 

 
 
 
 
I voted that nothing happened.
 
I have never met someone who thinks the Patriots are guilty who accurately understands the science and can articulate his position.  
 
95% of the people I speak to basically say that they believe the Patriots probably did it because of the circumstantial evidence or because they haven't been paying close attention to such a stupid and boring controversy.  Most of these people are intelligent, well-intentioned people who are not overly biased -- several are Patriots fans.  But their in-going assumption is that the Patriots did it and they have not invested time in confronting their preconceived notions.  If you ask them why, the responses range from pointing at headlines to rather detailed understandings of the circumstantial evidence.  None of them make any arguments about science.
 
Edit: I find SN's devil's advocate scenario illogical for a number of reasons.
 
The best argument, in my mind, is the one Chuck Schilling made while I was writing this:
 
 

Basically, the procedures were so sloppy we have to throw the science out entirely.  I don't agree, but it's a reasonable position.
 

Are you serious about this?  This is exactly how I feel about it and if you kept pushing me about it I'd roll my eyes and walk away, mostly because you've taken a hard line pro life/choice stance and there is absolutely no way you would be swayed or open to any reason outside of your pre conceived notion that they are innocent. 
 
This is why I hate this story, sports are supposed to be fun, people like you take all the fun out of it.  Did the Patriots do something?  Possibly,  I don't know.  Could they be 100% innocent, yup.  Guess what though... I don't fucking care.  My life will not change one iota if Brady plays all 16 games or gets banned for life.  
 
So if you wanted to get into it with me about why I think they might have had something to do with it, I would be like the 95% that walked away and thought you were a crazy person because I have better things to do with my day.... usually.
 
edit: I need to work on my spelling and grammar.

 

[amarshal2]

Are you serious about this?  This is exactly how I feel about it and if you kept pushing me about it I'd roll my eyes and walk away, mostly because you've taken a hard line pro life/choice stance and there is absolutely no way you would be swayed or open to any reason outside of your pre concieved notion that they are innocent. 
 
This is why I hate this story, sports is supposed to be fun, people like you take all the fun out of it.  Did the Patriots do something?  Possibly,  I don't know.  Could they be 100% innocent, yup.  Guess what though... I don't fucking care.  My life will not change one iota if Brady plays all 16 games or gets banned for life.  
 
So if you wanted to get into it with me about why I think they might have had something to do with it, I would be like the 95% that walked away and thought you were a crazy person because I have better things to do with my day.... usually.

 
I guess I was unclear. I'm not being critical of you.  Quite the opposite.  You don't care and that's great!  That's the most logical stance a person could have.  I don't expect you to dive into the science or get into an argument with me.  I fully support you doing something valuable with your life.
 
I was explaining to someone as obsessed with me the mindset of someone like you.  You aren't going to go deep to make an argument.  Sorry if that came off in the wrong tone - it was not intended.
 
And while you don't care, twice in the course of this controversy I have argued on this board that the Patriots are probably guilty before we learned more about the situation.  So, I'm not some hard line pro life/choice stance who came in with a belief that could not be swayed.  At this point though I've seen all the evidence and read all the arguments so you would need new evidence to convince me otherwise.

 

[drbretto]

Are you serious about this?  This is exactly how I feel about it and if you kept pushing me about it I'd roll my eyes and walk away, mostly because you've taken a hard line pro life/choice stance and there is absolutely no way you would be swayed or open to any reason outside of your pre conceived notion that they are innocent. 
 
This is why I hate this story, sports are supposed to be fun, people like you take all the fun out of it.  Did the Patriots do something?  Possibly,  I don't know.  Could they be 100% innocent, yup.  Guess what though... I don't fucking care.  My life will not change one iota if Brady plays all 16 games or gets banned for life.  
 
So if you wanted to get into it with me about why I think they might have had something to do with it, I would be like the 95% that walked away and thought you were a crazy person because I have better things to do with my day.... usually.
 
edit: I need to work on my spelling and grammar.

 
What does any of that have to do with whether or not they are guilty though? And if you don't care, then why are you one of the people bumping the bullshit P+G thread. If you don't care, then stay out of the discussion on it. If you want to get involved in the discussion, then catch up on the backstory first and people won't attack you. It's the same as any other thread that someone else shows up in, doesn't read anything and posts the same bullshit useless line everyone else has already heard and debunked.  It wouldn't matter what the subject is. If you read up on everything else and have something to add that supports the theory that it was, indeed, a conspiracy by Brady to cheat, then people will listen just fine.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

To be clear, if you make the most uncharitable set of assumptions - the non-logo gauge, the pregame temp being at the lower range, and the halftime temp being at the higher range - you get an unexplained PSI drop averaging about 0.6. Maybe even 0.7 if you start fiddling with the measurement timing.
 
EDIT: sorry, to get to 0.6-0.7 you also have to assume all balls are dry (a wet ball is ~0.2 PSI "lighter").

 
Using averages...with gauges that are obviously inaccurate (reference the measurements of the intercepted ball).
 
If you take it ball-by-ball, don't assume the longest time period for measuring Pats footballs, and use the "worst case" deviation of gauge readings, you could assert that all the footballs were less inflated than they should have been. The recorded deviations between Patriots footballs were greater than for the 4 Colts footballs.
 
All I'm saying is, if you graphed the results using error bars, you'd find the footballs could all have been above the "expected" pressure...or all could have been below. The assessments of data taken in completely uncontrolled circumstances on defective instrumentation mean nothing in the world of engineering.

 

[drbretto]

Right. And wouldn't a non-result like that effectively mean that either nothing happened, or at least nothing significant? I'd have to think if this was ever a real investigation that the case would have been dropped immediately at that point.