Collins traded to Cleveland per Schefter

pappymojo

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Lawrence Taylor hasn't played in over twenty years, and even when he was playing under Belichick, Belichick wasn't acting as a General Manager. Do people assume that Belichick hasn't evolved in his approach to team building since he last coached LT?
 

Stitch01

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No team has ever won when scoring 0 Pts. Teams who who have thrown for 400+ yards in a game can lose (ask Jim Hardy). You can also have someone run for over 250 yards in a game and lose (ask Nicoles Murderer).

So Pts is really the ONLY defensive stat that matters.

I get that your argument is that alot more information can be gleaned and some really "tough to play" defenses give up significant yards but at the end of the day it is all about Pts.
Its really not all about points allowed. Not if you are trying to isolate defensive performance from the performance of other units. Raw yardage stats are probably worse, so OK I guess?

Again, as Ive said in other threads during this discussion, Im not saying its a terrible defense. But points allowed way overstates how good the defense is. Points allowed says the Patriots defense is better than the Broncos defense and one of the very best units in the league. DVOA and yards per play type metrics say this is an average defense. Which seems more reasonable, particularly in light of BB shipping Jamie Collins out of town for not very much over the bye week?
 

JokersWildJIMED

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But implicit in the argument is that first-half trends will continue, potentially through Feb.

They have not played a QB worth a damn in the first half, save Dalton, and the same holds true for the second half too perhaps, save Wilson.

But eventually -- the playoffs -- that ends, and the yards turn into points. e.g., Pittsburgh with a healthy Ben. So if the defense is not playing well in the coach's estimation, you make changes.
Although Smith, Carr, and Ben are dangerous, they are probably more likely to see Brock and Trevor in the divisional round and championship games if they secure the #1 seed. Houston will most likely win the division and have a home playoff game against an AFC west team, and Denver should get the other bye.
 

bankshot1

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Agreed (with DCM post) as posted elsewhere:

Good news is they have the bye week to tinker with the D.

Good news pt 2-there are no offensive juggernauts on their schedule, they should survive this move at least in the regular season pretty easily.

Good news pt 3-they've got a lot of time to get this D ready for the post-season.
 

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Although Smith, Carr, and Ben are dangerous, they are probably more likely to see Brock and Trevor in the divisional round and championship games if they secure the #1 seed. Houston will most likely win the division and have a home playoff game against an AFC west team, and Denver should get the other bye.
Right and then looking all the way down the road - SB could be Dak, Bradford, Wilson. Don't see GB getting there. Don't see Arizona getting there. Don't see Carolina getting there. I mean it's entirely possible they don't plan an elite QB all year aside from DangeRuss
 

Stitch01

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They can win in the playoffs with this offense and an average defense,. Hopefully it improves, but its not necessarily crippling if it doesnt. There arent really other good teams this year, the Pats are pretty clear favorites if they stay healthy. This isnt like "oh Matt Slater randomly played 100% of safety snaps and Julian Edelman is covering Anquan Boldin in the AFC title game." and that team very easily could have won a Super Bowl. These guys play the run well and the secondary is reasonably competent.

My personal biggest hope/binkie for improvement over the second half of the year is that Trey Flowers emerges as a pass rusher. A league average pass rush is really what the defense needs.
 

tims4wins

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They can win in the playoffs with this offense and an average defense,. Hopefully it improves, but its not necessarily crippling if it doesnt.. This isnt like "oh Matt Slater randomly played 100% of safety snaps and Julian Edelman is covering Anquan Boldin in the AFC title game." and that team very easily could have won a Super Bowl. These guys play the run well and the secondary is reasonably competent.

My personal biggest hope/binkie for improvement over the second half of the year is that Trey Flowers emerges as a pass rusher.
Plus just about whenever they lose in the playoffs it's the offense's fault. 2006 AFCCG is basically the only exception.
 

Yossarian

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I mean, when you start going through the list of elite QB's/elite offenses, you realize it's actually pretty short. It's even shorter if you limit the list to teams that have legit SB/deep playoff run chances (e.g., not the Saints).

In this year's NFL, a truly elite offense plus a defense good enough to hang in against bad-to-mediocre offenses but potentially vulnerable to really good ones might just be enough to get the job done. I'd rather that than have to rely on the likes of Trevor Siemien or Sam Bradford to help win me a Super Bowl.
 

Stitch01

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2011 and 2012 were both pretty much group efforts. SN has highlighted the drive by drive stats in 2011 before, it was a slow paced/low possession game so the score stayed low, but the defense didnt play particularly well. They were atrocious in the Ravens loss in the second half as well.
 

bakahump

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... But points allowed way overstates how good the defense is. Points allowed says the Patriots defense is better than the Broncos defense and one of the very best units in the league. DVOA and yards per play type metrics say this is an average defense.
I wont argue that they are a top 5 team (despite giving up top 5 Pts).

But I think its fair to say that an "average" defense by Metrics with a "knack" for not giving up points would boost them to slightly above average. Say around the 10 spot.

With this offense and a "#10" defense thats plenty.

Also we might actually see improvement with the Collins banishment. Maybe the freelancing reports are worse then any non patriot coach realizes. So a slight improvement from the LB slot and suddenly we have a "#8" defense.

Mix in some health for HT who seemed hobbled at times in games 4-6 and I dont think its as "average" as you do. But agreed not a top 3-5 unit. (but we dont need it to be)
 

Super Nomario

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Plus just about whenever they lose in the playoffs it's the offense's fault. 2006 AFCCG is basically the only exception.
Aside from Stitch's note, there's also the reality that it's hard to score 30 week after week, especially against playoff defenses. Is the D good enough to win a 17-14 game or a 20-18 game? If the answer is no, can you really expect to put up 25+ points every week?
 

Yossarian

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If nothing else, my guess is that the elevation of Roberts over Collins probably improves the run defense a little bit.
 

reggiecleveland

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I mean, when you start going through the list of elite QB's/elite offenses, you realize it's actually pretty short. It's even shorter if you limit the list to teams that have legit SB/deep playoff run chances (e.g., not the Saints).

In this year's NFL, a truly elite offense plus a defense good enough to hang in against bad-to-mediocre offenses but potentially vulnerable to really good ones might just be enough to get the job done. I'd rather that than have to rely on the likes of Trevor Siemien or Sam Bradford to help win me a Super Bowl.
This seems exactly the case. The days of the Iron Curtain or LT and the boys, or the 86 Bears are gone. Fans didn't like 10-7 games, so the rule shave changed, salary cap included to make a dominant D hard to build. The offences are so good you can't simply roll out a group of superior athletes and stop people. A plan is needed each week, and it looks like Collins was not working out in those plans.

The Indians run through the post season are the exception that proves the rule, of a similar change in baseball.
 

tims4wins

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Aside from Stitch's note, there's also the reality that it's hard to score 30 week after week, especially against playoff defenses. Is the D good enough to win a 17-14 game or a 20-18 game? If the answer is no, can you really expect to put up 25+ points every week?
Eh they scored what 35 against Baltimore, 45 against the Colts and 28 against Seattle in 2014, right? And I don't think the 2014 offense was some crazy juggernaut. If the offense plays within their 80% range it should be good enough to win with an average D. I would say scoring 20 or 17 is not within that 80% range. Now if they lose say 27-24 then yeah the D would be at fault but if they give up 20 or less and lose, it's on the offense, no matter how many drives there are.
 

mauf

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The fact that Mike Lombardi has been going on pretty much every sports show available to trash Collins' play and defend the decision to trade him rubs me the wrong way.
Id suspect BB isn't a big fan of it either.
Exactly. Lombardi is marketing himself as someone who understands the inner workings of the league's best and least transparent franchise. BB is at best indifferent; more likely, he's unhappy about it -- but assuming he's not interested in bringing Lombardi back in some capacity, there's not much he can do about it.
 

Super Nomario

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Eh they scored what 35 against Baltimore, 45 against the Colts and 28 against Seattle in 2014, right? And I don't think the 2014 offense was some crazy juggernaut. If the offense plays within their 80% range it should be good enough to win with an average D. I would say scoring 20 or 17 is not within that 80% range. Now if they lose say 27-24 then yeah the D would be at fault but if they give up 20 or less and lose, it's on the offense, no matter how many drives there are.
I think your expectations are unrealistic. They've had 13 playoff runs in the B/B era and 2014 is the only time they put up 28 points in each game. That includes the '07, '10, '11, and '12 teams, all of whom put up 500 points in a season. That tells me it's really, really hard to put up points in the playoffs. Many of the other top offensive teams of all time hit a speed bump in the playoff as well - the '13 Broncos, the '11 Packers, the '04 Colts, the '01 Rams, the '84 Dolphins. The '99 Greatest Show on Turf Rams had to win an 11-6 game on their way to the Super Bowl. There are exceptions - the '94 49ers, some Saints teams - but in general, you have to win ugly once or twice to win the Super Bowl.
 

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Oh I agree it's really freaking hard which is why they "only" have 4 Lombardis. You definitely have to win ugly sometimes. More than any of their other titles the offense carried the team in the 2014 playoffs. But I think we are mainly arguing semantics here, I am saying that the offense has some room to play below average but still be good enough to win with an ok defensive performance. I don't expect 30 a week in January, but I also don't expect them to give the ball up at their own 25 against a terrible offense like Brady did with the pick last year, to only score 12 points through 59 minutes, etc. There is a middle ground where I think the D is good enough even if the offense doesn't play lights out. KC game last year is a decent example. Offense only had 340 yards, D gave up 380, gave up 20 points, Pats won 27-20. Offense wasn't particularly awesome (22 minutes possession, 38 rushing yards) but it wasn't a shitshow either.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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This seems exactly the case. The days of the Iron Curtain or LT and the boys, or the 86 Bears are gone. Fans didn't like 10-7 games, so the rule shave changed, salary cap included to make a dominant D hard to build. The offences are so good you can't simply roll out a group of superior athletes and stop people. A plan is needed each week, and it looks like Collins was not working out in those plans.
 

Super Nomario

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Oh I agree it's really freaking hard which is why they "only" have 4 Lombardis. You definitely have to win ugly sometimes. More than any of their other titles the offense carried the team in the 2014 playoffs. But I think we are mainly arguing semantics here, I am saying that the offense has some room to play below average but still be good enough to win with an ok defensive performance. I don't expect 30 a week in January, but I also don't expect them to give the ball up at their own 25 against a terrible offense like Brady did with the pick last year, to only score 12 points through 59 minutes, etc. There is a middle ground where I think the D is good enough even if the offense doesn't play lights out. KC game last year is a decent example. Offense only had 340 yards, D gave up 380, gave up 20 points, Pats won 27-20. Offense wasn't particularly awesome (22 minutes possession, 38 rushing yards) but it wasn't a shitshow either.
The KC game is another example of a small number of drives leading to a misleading final score. The O had 27 points on 8 real drives (10 drives total but 2 were end-of-half), which is awesome. The D allowed 20 points on 9 drives, which isn't very good. They got dominated on TOP largely because the D couldn't get off the field (four drives of 11+ plays).

I do agree there's a middle ground somewhere where they get a B- from the O and a B+ from the D and win. But in recent seasons, it seems like if they get a B- from the O, the D isn't up to snuff.
 

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I am generally in the IBWT camp on this kind of thing, but honestly it makes me a little nervous when a guy like DMC says he thinks Collins might have been their best defensive player. Even if the consensus about BBs evaluation of talent and scheme is accurate, if the players don't see it that way, it could be disruptive. And I worry about the depth.

Not panicking but I would be lying if I said the ol sphincter didn't pucker a bit more over this one than some other recent BB surprise moves.
 

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I guess it is hard for me to think of a B- from the offense. Last year's KC game was I guess more of a B+/A- from the offense. Title game was like a D or C-. In 2014 the offense was at least a B+ in all 3. 2013 they basically had no shot without Gronk especially after Talib went down. 2011 the 17 points against the Giants was worse than a B-. Maybe going back to the 2010 game against the Jets, the offense I suppose was about a B- that day and the D wasn't up to snuff, although special teams (cough Chung) had something to do with that.

There just haven't been a lot of playoff games where the offense played a little below average - it seems they are either great, or bad, with little in-between.
 

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Back to something that is a little more related to this thread: it'd be really nice if sometime in the next week we see a press release that DH has been signed to a long term contract.
 

Tony C

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...That's a young coach sending a message to a young team. By now, I think everyone in the Patriots locker room knows to "do your job."

Judging by the reaction, it seems a lot of players were surprised by the trade. Does Bill risk alienating his players with the way he handles guys like Jones and Collins? Players may start to feel he has no loyalty to them and they're just an asset.
The Pats aren't such a vet team but, in any case, vet or rook, "do your job" is just a slogan unless not doing your job has consequences.


I think people are making this way too complicated.
If we assume that trading Collins was performance-related, isn't it pretty likely that the other players on defense know that Collins wasn't performing.
...
Except that DMAC publicly stated that Collins is arguably their best defensive player. That's not just any defensive player, but the defensive QB. I'm generally in the give the benefit of the doubt camp because, let's face it, that camp has been right 99% of the time. But that comment gave me pause -- if anyone would note a guy missing his assignments because he's freelancing, it'd be DMac.
 

BigSoxFan

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Back to something that is a little more related to this thread: it'd be really nice if sometime in the next week we see a press release that DH has been signed to a long term contract.
As long as it's with the Patriots, yes :)
 

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I haven't seen many of the writers talk about last season's mystery virus. Has he demonstrated long term effects from that illness or did he look as quick as ever?
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Except that DMAC publicly stated that Collins is arguably their best defensive player. That's not just any defensive player, but the defensive QB. I'm generally in the give the benefit of the doubt camp because, let's face it, that camp has been right 99% of the time. But that comment gave me pause -- if anyone would note a guy missing his assignments because he's freelancing, it'd be DMac.
Right, but this slant ignores the organizational philosophy of not saying anything to the press. I highly doubt that we could ever expect to hear a player say something negative about an exiting player to the press. None of the guys that have famously been jettisoned have had it happen. It's part of the brain wash. Always praise anyone who is not a member of the 53. He's not on the 53 anymore. And above and beyond that they forge personal relationships ships. I didn't see that interview, so maybe DMac had a look on his face that he truly believed that, but I don't expect any player to say anything different on his team.

If it's true, the players know it. BB is obviously famous for tearing guys up during film review. I'd imagine Collins was getting called out/on a lot in the recent past and the players notice it. But that doesn't mean I expect one of them to tell us about it.
 

Hoodie Sleeves

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Its really not all about points allowed. Not if you are trying to isolate defensive performance from the performance of other units. Raw yardage stats are probably worse, so OK I guess?
Field position has some pretty direct correlations to points, so it's definitely not just points.

However, I think the idea that you can isolate defensive performance is largely a fantasy - there's some rough correlations, but it's not coincidence that FO's metrics are significantly less consistent on a year-to-year (for defense), or even a game-to-game basis than they are for offense. It's lalso not coincidence that the Patriots defense consistently gives up less points than DVOA, field position, etc can account for, despite FO saying it's non-predictive.

Unless you're the 85 bears, the 2001 ravens, or the 2015 Broncos, defense is entirely context dependent past about the first quarter.
 

NickEsasky

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I haven't seen many of the writers talk about last season's mystery virus. Has he demonstrated long term effects from that illness or did he look as quick as ever?
Take this with an enormous grain of salt but my friend's dad is a medical specialist who runs in certain circles and was told that Collins' illness was caused by some dental work (specifically a grill) that got infected.
 

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Take this with an enormous grain of salt but my friend's dad is a medical specialist who runs in certain circles and was told that Collins' illness was caused by some dental work (specifically a grill) that got infected.
Jesus Christ. What a goddamn idiot if true. He and Chandler had the stupidest medical issues ever. No wonder both guys got traded.
 

Van Everyman

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Back to something that is a little more related to this thread: it'd be really nice if sometime in the next week we see a press release that DH has been signed to a long term contract.
It would be hilarious if after everything we debated about choosing Chandler/Collins/Hightower BB ended up letting all three go.

More seriously, I think if you believe the Collins trade was about a single player, then, yes, we can probably expect Hightower to be locked up at some point. But if you think BB was sending a message to his defense by dumping Collins, then it's a lot less clear. I've seen reports about both but if BB is legitimately salty about the defensive play right now, I'd be surprised if he locked anyone up, Butler included.

Did anyone get extended during the 2009 season? That's the last time I remember BB being outwardly frustrated with his defense.
 

Dick Drago

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I re-watched the bit from Sunday where they were flagged for too many men on the field; it looked like Collins and Shear were having an animated conversation after the call. Wonder if he was supposed to come off the field, but didn't, maybe missed a signal etc.
 

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IIRC in 2009 both Thomas and Springs were actively undermining BB as the season went on, and both were cut about .000000000000002 seconds after the season ended.
And I wonder if BB learned from this and just decided after 2009 that he was done with dealing with these types of situations and instead of waiting to cut guys, just trade them or cut them earlier. Like Moss in early 2010.
 

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Well as the Bernie Kosar situation showed, he's never been shy about getting rid of a guy if he thinks there's no place on the team for him, no matter the time of year. Kosar might be truly indicative, as the rumor was that the final straw for BB came when Kosar threw TD pass late and down big in his last game with a play he drew up in the dirt on the field. BB has no use for guys who won't stick to the playcalling.

Collins is an impressive talent, and I'm not thrilled he's gone for whatever reason. But if he's not following the game plan I can see BB's patience wearing very thin very quickly.
 

Van Everyman

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Not to mention, if there's any truth to the rumor that Collins was trying to inflate his counting stats going into his walk year (not that he had that much success doing it) then you can see why BB did what he did.

Or if the grille thing with his teeth cost him multiple games last year.

This is all conjecture, obviously, but it's not hard to see how a coach and GM of Belichick's stature would look unfavorably on it.
 

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Take this with an enormous grain of salt but my friend's dad is a medical specialist who runs in certain circles and was told that Collins' illness was caused by some dental work (specifically a grill) that got infected.
If this is true, holy shit is he stupid. You want to get a grill, do it in the offseason. Add in his penchant for flying solo without regard to gameplan and wow. Like SJH said, both Chandler and Collins are not bright individuals and it is not a surprise they are gone. Both instances are pretty telling about who they are as individuals.

Team first.
 

lambeau

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Roberts is about the same size as Bobby Wagner (240-245) and is strong--bench presses one more than Khalil Mack (24); Hightower says he hits "like a torpedo." Collins' height did him no good when he was chasing receivers because he was out of position.
 

DJnVa

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Can someone explain why the Browns would make this trade? He's a free agent in 9 weeks. What's their angle?
They can wine him and dine him an extra 9 weeks and tell him he's the star.

If he leaves, they'll likely get a comp pick back anyway.

EDIT: And franchise.
 

nighthob

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They can wine him and dine him an extra 9 weeks and tell him he's the star.

If he leaves, they'll likely get a comp pick back anyway.

EDIT: And franchise.
Maybe this was part of an evil scheme to force the Browns to use the franchise tag on Collins so that New England could sign Terrelle Pryor? (Only half kidding.)