The real money isn’t guaranteed either.
So, you say, “the real money” is the guaranteed amounts, reported to be more than $500 million spent this past week? Sorry to again rain on the players’ parade, but those numbers are also not what they appear to be.
A “full” guarantee pays the player in the event he is released for either skill (deemed not good enough) or injury (unable to play due to a previous injury). In recent years, teams have managed to avoid full guarantees past the first year of these deals. How? Stay with me here.
At the time of signing (now), many of these contracts have full guarantees for 2014—of little value because players signed for any decent amount are not going to be cut this year—and injury-only guarantees in 2015. The latter converts to a full (skill and injury) guarantee for 2015 if the player is on the roster at the start of the 2015 league year. Yes, the likelihood of a player being released after the first year of these contracts is minimal. The point is that however unlikely, teams can release the player after the first year with no remaining financial obligation. Many of the bigger contracts signed this past week, such as Aqib Talib’s with the Broncos, are structured this way. And that, my friends, is not a guaranteed contract past the first year. Thus, that $500 million in guarantees is more like $250 million (one Albert Pujols).
As the shopping season now subsides a week into free agency, these are good times for NFL owners: Forbes values 23 of the 32 franchises at more than $1 billion, record-level television contracts are kicking in and player costs, while sounding high for public consumption, are largely illusory beyond one or two contract years.