Christian Needs Some Help Back There
- Thread starter MakMan44
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Rudy Pemberton said:
If I'm reading this chart correctly - it's possible I'm not! - then Hundley is a pretty strong framer. Maybe he's the pick for that reason.
lxt said:
Swihart doesn't even have 100 PAs at AAA, putting him on the MLB roster to sit on the bench might be counterproductive to his development on offense and defense. Backup catchers are cheap and fungible, they're better off grabbing one and hoping Vazquez stays healthy.
MakMan44 said:
Ross or they could just keep Lavarnway as a back up until they are ready to bring Swihart up
TomRicardo said:
Hard to see them giving Lavarnway the back up C job when he only played 15 games there last year. But there's always Butler. Honestly, looking at that FA list, I'm not sure there's anybody who's a good enough bet to be better than Butler in a backup role to be worth spending money on. Maybe Soto or Hundley. But the price would need to be very low.
Would they consider Dan Butler as a defense only? Or Ryan Lavarnway as an offense mostly? I would prefer Lavarnway to any of the above, with the possible exception of Arencibia if he's a top notch defender on a one-year contract. With his power and the left field wall, they might catch a little lightning in the bottle there.Rudy Pemberton said:
Rudy Pemberton said:
MakMan44 said:
Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Diamondbacks are considering moving Miguel Montero, fwiw.
Obviously, he's turning 32 next year, isn't close offensively to where he was during his 2009-2012 peak, and - oh yeah - he's owed $40 million over the next 3 years. Still, it is out there as some kind of potential salary dump situation for teams with a need for a catcher. It's hard to see how he fits financially or with Vasquez, but it's part of the pool of available catchers.
Already made that joke :q:Minneapolis Millers said:
I like Montero as a bounce back candidate but it's hard to see a trade with Swihart coming in AAA already.
I've a gut feeling that Ross is back. Nothing to back that up other than he seems to be well liked by the coaching staff and the pitching staff. He's already worked with some of the younger pitchers as well as Vazquez. Perhaps there's already an agreement in principle already in place. Given the concussion issues, maybe Ross is the hold up and still considering if he wants to play in '15.
YTF said:
I like this plan. Vasquez gets the majority of time .....Ross gets his 1-2 games/week. Ross provides coaching to Vasquez and also Swihart during spring training and/if he gets called up for any short-term stints with the big club.
There's really not a lot of LHH catchers out there who might be available, at least ones where their bats could be considered any sort of an asset.
Three names that kind of stand out, however:
1: John Jaso (Arb3, FA after 2015)
2: Miguel Montero (Waste of resources considering he's owed 3/$40 on his contract... especially with Vaz up and Swihart close)
3: Alex Avila (Detroit has a $5.4M option on him for 2015, still managed to be a 2 win player last season, was a 5 win player as recent as 2011... might be more successful with a lighter workload)
Three names that kind of stand out, however:
1: John Jaso (Arb3, FA after 2015)
2: Miguel Montero (Waste of resources considering he's owed 3/$40 on his contract... especially with Vaz up and Swihart close)
3: Alex Avila (Detroit has a $5.4M option on him for 2015, still managed to be a 2 win player last season, was a 5 win player as recent as 2011... might be more successful with a lighter workload)
Ross would be nice, but I think where Lester ends up might have an effect. If Lester comes back to the Sox, it's pretty much a lock Ross would return. If Lester goes to the Cubs (for example), I could see Ross going there based on feedback from Lester. It's not like Chicago has a killer backup C (the immortal John Baker), and they also have a young C to tutor (Wellington Castillo).
It could also mean that they would like to explore obtaining another catcher via trade (Jaso, Montero, Avila) regardless of L/R bat
Hank Scorpio said:
I wonder if this means they're in talks about a deal involving one of the young catchers (presumably Swihart), and if it goes through they'll want a younger and more productive 2nd catcher than Ross?
I can't believe it's about platoon splits, since Farrell has never seemed interested in using his catchers that way.
Ross is going to be 38. His offense has been declining year by year. While he can still hit lefties, he was abysmal against RHP. And he's had concussion issues himself.
Here's a dated article by Speier: http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2013/12/04/what-now-ryan-lavarnway-look-his-uncertain-red
It seems not much has changed since Dec 2013, apart from Vazquez looking like he could possibly stick, but that's not a sure thing. (Is Lavarnway is now out of options?)
I'd guess the Sox would hold onto all the pieces they have control of, with an eye toward shuffling them about should someone falter at the major league level. Maybe that means using Lavarnway as the second MLB catcher, hoping he figures something out at age 27, his physically peak year, rather than just cutting bait. Assuming there's no trade for him, of course. Or if options aren't an issue, maybe they stash him in AAA for another year and sign Ross, the devil they know. You have to think they'll be a bit cautious after the AJP experience.
Here's a dated article by Speier: http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2013/12/04/what-now-ryan-lavarnway-look-his-uncertain-red
It seems not much has changed since Dec 2013, apart from Vazquez looking like he could possibly stick, but that's not a sure thing. (Is Lavarnway is now out of options?)
I'd guess the Sox would hold onto all the pieces they have control of, with an eye toward shuffling them about should someone falter at the major league level. Maybe that means using Lavarnway as the second MLB catcher, hoping he figures something out at age 27, his physically peak year, rather than just cutting bait. Assuming there's no trade for him, of course. Or if options aren't an issue, maybe they stash him in AAA for another year and sign Ross, the devil they know. You have to think they'll be a bit cautious after the AJP experience.
Regarding Alex Avila, I question his willingness to come here as a back up. He played in 124 games last season and 102 in '13, 116 in '12, 141 in '11 and 104 in '10.
Sounds like his future will be more at DH, or at least it should be.MakMan44 said:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/11504766/john-jaso-oakland-athletics-remain-concussion-checkup
Just thinkin'...what would it take to pry big fat Jose Molina and his $2.5M 1-year contract away from the Rays? He strikes me as an ideal backup for Vazquez, being a Molina and all. And he knows the AL East better than anyone.
The Rays have Hanigan signed through 2016 with an option, and Casali in the wings.
The Rays have Hanigan signed through 2016 with an option, and Casali in the wings.
Not a bad idea, but I'm not sure I want to spend $2.5MM for a guy that plays once a week. I'd rather allocate that money for relief pitching and use Butler or Lavarnaway as a back-up and see if one of those two develop some trade value before Swihart is ready.geoduck no quahog said:
benhogan said:
Well, that's close to the going rate for a grizzled vet back-up catcher. Ross signed for 6.2MM for two years.
George Kottaras is pretty lousy defensively, but the guy seems to hit just fine, and would probably be cheap. It does seem like teams usually want some kind of defense-oriented backup, though.
ji oh said:
I have to believe handedness just isn't going to be a priority when it comes to the back-up catcher. The bar is already so low for the position that I think the FO is just going to go with the least shitty option -- esp. since this person doesn't figure to play that much with Vazquez behind the dish, and the fact that one left-handed back-up catcher isn't going to come anywhere close to solving our handedness problems with the line-up.
Or whether they feel like paying $2-$3M for a veteran backup if that is the straw that breaks the camel's back for passing the luxury tax threshold. Or if they want to pay an extra tax just for a veteran backup.ji oh said:
If they can't land the big FAs they're supposedly targeting then they'll have the disposable resources. If instead they can land two of Lester, Scherzer, Shields, Maeda, etc., or one and trade for a Latos, Cueto, Samardzija, Hamels, and still sign one of Headley or Sandoval for 3B they aren't going to have a ton of extra room left in the budget, but could still potentially stay just under. At that point going with Lavarnway and/or Butler as the backup C and planning on Swihart as an option by mid-season is a nice bit of cost savings.
Drek717 said:
I would hope that Lavarnway/Butler are plan C for catcher, not B. I understand that this is a way to save money, but its troubling that so many of you are perfectly okay with Vazquez taking over and having only those two right behind him. Its an equally bad and potentially worse gamble than they took on handing the job to JBJ last season. JBJ at least had a bit of upside with his OBP heavy bat, not to mention they took a flyer on Sizemore and, well, its the outfield so worse comes to worst you move Vic or Nava or Holt into center for a game or two. If Vazquez bottoms out anything like JBJ or Middlebrooks did, or gets injured like catchers do, you're ready to throw Butler and Lavarnway, who isn't even really a catcher anymore, in the mix as regulars?
Your backups are never going to be all stars, but after our recent issues with depth and prospect struggles, I hope the team recognizes how easy it is to get burned by this roster construction strategy. Molina would be the ultimate pairing for Vazquez given that he already works out with that family. And if staying under the cap comes down to a couple million, then great, that means we spent our money this offseason instead of pretending we're some middle market team, we're competing, and things like having a legit backup catcher are worth it.
I think folks may be over thinking BC's statements. I don't think it signifies that he's looking to trade Swihart/Vaz or focus on handedness. Rather, he has a lot of roster building work to do this off-season and backup catcher is not only the lowest priority but this position also has the lowest opportunity cost if he waits. What I mean by that, is not only does he have decent internal options (Butler/Lavarnway), but the external options are so underwhelming that they may be available later in the winter and/or the internal options may be similar in value. Keep in mind that Swihart could conceivably break into the bigs by the middle of the season. So BC is in a position where he can focus on his major targets and then once he fills those holes he can look back and see what he has left in terms of assets (payroll before luxury tax and prospects) and what's left on the market, and make a decision on the best option to fill out the back up C position.
Do the names Kelly Shoppach, George Kottaras, and Tim Federowicz ring a bell? The Sox have let a lot of guys who turned out to be solid ML backups go in their pursuit of the experienced, 10x more expensive, #2 catcher.TigerBlood said:
Also, JBJ didn't have the best CF prospect in all of baseball behind him about to start his first season in AAA after handling AA like a champ. Should Vaz crap the bed we wouldn't be looking to hand the full time job over to someone like Ross, who couldn't handle it anyway, we'd see it go to Swihart assuming he was doing even ok in AAA.
Not to mention that Lavarnway could likely outhit the majority of catchers who are capable of catching (Jaso and Avila are dubious) and Butler is a very solid glove behind the dish himself. We aren't talking about putting these guys in as starters, the team is already committed to Vaz as the starter, we're talking about the marginal difference between a journeyman backup catcher and a post-prospect AAA guy. The impact it will have on 2015 is minuscule compared to the salary difference.
TigerBlood said:
Despite his defense, I don't see how Molina, a 39/40 year old catcher who put up Bradley-esque numbers last season, is going to be much of an upgrade over Butler? Butler grades out well defensively and should be able to provide a line similar to Molina's, considering Molina is showing a 4-year downward trend and was absolutely abysmal last year. I get that he has the name and the pedigree, but I'm not certain that at this point Molina can even be considered better than Butler, particularly in a limited backup capacity. And that doesn't even factor in the acquisition cost and the dollars it will take to keep him.
Drek717 said:
I don't understand this statement.
Shoppach was traded for Coco Crisp and Josh Bard. Federwicz was part of that mid-season trade for Erik Bedard and has a stratospheric .547 OPS over 250+ PA. Kottaras was basically AAAA depth before his mini-revival in Milwaukee (He hadn't shown much at AAA or MLB before that). These guys weren't exactly "let-go".
Rudy Pemberton said:
Why would McKenry be available, though? The Rockies have only two catchers on their 40-man. Of their two top-20 catching prospects, one is 19 and the other just had a meh second year in double-A. McKenry's hitting arb this year, but only year 1. If they trade him, they'll be forced to either trade to replace him, or use one of their Dan Butler equivalents in Triple-A (at least to start the year). Seems like they have every reason to keep him.
I don't understand your arguments. Re: paragraph one, I think I'm pretty clearly arguing that they go with exactly that strategy, bringing in a more experienced and expensive catcher Molina. Re: paragraph two. JBJ most definitely did have that type of defensive reputation.Drek717 said:
Re paragraph 3, Lavarnway is barely a catcher at all anymore 15 games last season. He OPSed .759 in AAA, mostly at DH and 1B. "We aren't talking about putting these guys in as starters", well obviously, but there is a reason teams value depth. Especially at positions where option 1 is high risk, such as our all-glove, light-hitting rookie catcher.
jasail said:
I agree Molina isn't much of an upgrade, but my argument is that he would be an excellent option to stretch our catching depth for a year. If Vazquez injures himself or shows regression or no improvement at the plate, then your tandem is Butler/Molina instead of Butler/Lavarnway or Butler/rushed Swihart. Like other posters say Kottaras is an intriguing option as well, who could stretch the depth in the same way, but also bring something on offense. Additionally, it just occurred to me that Kottaras would be a fantastic option to have if Steven Wright is making more than a handful of appearances next year.
TigerBlood said:
Lavarnway was injured most of last year and played out the last string of the season at catcher for Pawtucket. He also had a .911 OPS after returning from injury.
He is not a terrible backup catcher to start with especially with 3 other catchers on the 40 man roster.
You certainly could go into spring training with Butler and Lavarnway competing for the back up spot. It is a back up catcher.
Is anyone wondering why the Sox are going to hand over starting Catcher to Vazquez after the problems the kids experienced in 2014? I think one of the new wrinkles in their operating philosophy is that kids have to push vets out of a job. Xander looked better than Christian in his 2013 debut, yet he struggled for a long window of time in 2014. Is there any chance they are not looking for a backup, and instead are looking for a solid co-starter, that can assume a larger role if Vazquez struggles?
He did push AJ out of a job. How many times does he need to repeat showing he's better than a veteran? And since most of his value comes from defense, I think the probability of him continuing to perform at a high level defensively is greater than a typical youngster continuing to perform at a high level at the plate.67WasBest said:
67WasBest, I think you're solid "co-starter", if available is going to cost considerably more than the Sox may be willing to spend given the holes in the rotation and the question mark at 3rd. Along the lines of what you're thinking, I wonder if John Buck might suit what you're looking for. Seems as though he's been around forever, but he's just 34 years old, has some pop in his bat and only made $1,000,000 last year. He's not the type that's going to expect to catch the majority of games, but should still have enough in the tank to catch 1/3 or more games if that's what you're suggesting. I've no idea what his reputation is when it comes to handling a pitching staff, especially a young one but if the Sox don't keep Ross around could Buck fill the role you're looking to fill?
Fair point, but I simply offered differences in probability, not certainty. Plus I think the hitting bar is lower for a catcher than an outfielder.kieckeredinthehead said:
They were all considered mediocre prospects. They all turned into solid backups or better at the ML level. My point is that the Sox have a time honored tradition of trading away young catchers when it is clear they aren't starter material, paying a veteran a seven figure some to be the backup, and then watching a lot of the young guys they didn't think there was any use for turn into a worthwhile backup C.foulkehampshire said:
I'd say Butler is exactly that kind of guy already and there is a case for Lavarnway as well. In short - stop paying mid to late 30's veterans several million dollars to do the same or marginally better job your in-house 27 or 28 year old can do instead for 1/10th the salary. Most backup catchers can't hit. If Avila is an example of a "good" backup C bat the difference between him and Butler for ~200 PAs isn't a big deal, while that $2-$3M in pay definitely could be.
#2 catchers and backup middle infielders are two spots this club continually spends cash on for the assurance of mediocrity when they have in-house options with comparable ability and a far lower price attached. Stop spending money to hedge your bets with mediocre. Spend your money to buy wins.
I'm saying it's a waste of money strategy for effectively zero gain. Who's the best options out there? Jaso? I'd love for someone to try proving that he's a better defensive C than Lavarnway. Avila? He hasn't hit well for a few years now, keeps having his brain bouncing off the walls of his skull when he squats behind the plate, and has just enough cred from his bigger offensive seasons a few years back to land somewhere that would promise him a better job than being the caddy for Vaz with Swihart in the wings. He's also unlikely to play as good of defense as Butler or hit as well as Lavarnway.TigerBlood said:
I'm not talking about JBJ's defensive rep, I'm talking about what organizational depth we have behind these guys. To start 2014 if you wanted to find the next legit CF starter ceiling prospect in the farm behind JBJ you had to go down to then 19 year old Manuel Margot playing in A ball. The next guy up behind Vaz is 22 year old Blake "Best two way catching prospect in baseball" Swihart who will start 2015 in AAA after having gotten 18 games and a playoff run at that level already with a solid stat line (contact and OBP maintained, power hadn't emerged but it is the most volatile in small samples) and a .847 OPS in his first look at AA. Vaz is a good prospect, Swihart is a blue chipper. As such there is no need to insulate against Vaz' failure.
Lets wait and see how Vaz hits given a full season for starters, shall we? He's been slow to transition to every level throughout the minors, but ultimately rounds into a solid bat. The bar is also incredibly low for catchers. And again, Vaz isn't high risk when we know he's an elite defender already, we know he didn't look JBJ levels of overmatched against ML pitching, and we know that Swihart is just down the road in Pawtucket eagerly awaiting his chance. Meanwhile Lavarnway's power might have eroded over the last few years but his average and OBP are still strong. It is entirely possible he puts it together as a solid backup 1B/DH/C bat, something that has real value given Napoli is having his face tore off, Ortiz is getting older and might have his split re-emerge, and Craig isn't guaranteed to help with either concern.
Both Butler and Vaz are likely to have more experience catching Steven Wright personally than Kottaras. Molina wouldn't make it a month under a full time workload, so having him in case Vaz can't make it through the season for whatever reason is actually a net negative. The Sox can't just hang onto Butler and Lavarnway indefinitely. Butler has one option left, Lavarnway has none. So anyone you sign as the #2 C you're doing so at the expense of Lavarnway being in the organization. Is Molina, Kottaras, Avila, Jaso, etc. worth ~$2-$3M more than Lavarnway? I have a hard time seeing it, since they all suck and Lavarnway posted a pretty respectable line in his last stint of regular ML ABs (2013, when he posted a .758 OPS in 77 ABs).
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