Losing GH would stink BUT
You'd be betting that NBA revenues (arenas not being full + fewer games) don't recover to pre-pandemic levels over the next 8 months. If revenues continue to be a problem, there should be talent available from non-contenders. Then the TPE is very valuable BUT we don't really know who the non-contenders/sellers will be right now. So player speculation is next to impossible.
BUT we can all agree the absolute worst-case scenario would be:
1. TPE expires worthless a year from now
2. CAP is re-set
3. Draft stock added
4. The C's we saw in the 2020 playoffs is a year more experienced and doesn't play so poorly in crunch time.
That is not a bet, its a certainty. Revenue will be down the only question is how much. There will be less than 82 games, is it 72 or 50.
According to Silver the gate is 40% of revenue, which is why some owners were reportedly pushing to delay the start of the season into Feb/March to give the best chance of having fans in stands. Based on the reporting two things changed that calculus 1) the ongoing covid spike and 2) more importantly the TV "partners" telling the league that they not excited about televising games in mid-July and August.
The priority for the league now is safeguarding the following season, not the coming one. For the coming year it is just about salvaging whatever revenue they can.
So every team is going into the season knowing that revenue will be way down. Dealing a guy at the deadline is a only small antidote to the loss of revenue b/c you have already paid the bulk of his salary by then (it does help with ducking the tax.)
Another part of the calculus, there will almost certainly be a "play in" scenario for the playoffs. So more teams than in the past will be "in contention" for a playoff spot. Historically teams that were in the hunt for a playoff spot have not dealt away assets, even if that would have been a wise long term move. Maybe that changes in the current climate.
In the West, outside of OKC no one looks to be tanking. That's not to say all of the teams will be in contention at the deadline, but it is not like you can look at the West and identify the obvious sellers other than OKC. Do we want Adams or Schroder? (I am honestly asking - didn't watch any OKC last year).
In the East, you've got Cleveland and Charlotte for sure, but who would we want? Love, Drummond, Rozier, Batum, Cody Zeller? I feel confident the answer here is no. The Knicks who knows. They could be a basement dweller or they could acquire Chris Paul and be the 7th seed. Then you have a bunch of teams in the 7/8/9 range. If Detroit reunites Casey and FVV and Blake returns to health, then they are in this bunch, otherwise they go with Cleveland. They've got Rose, Kennard and Snell. The Hawks are clearly trying to win. Washington will have Wall and the 9th pick, but that could definitely go off the rails, but again who are we getting. Orlando should trade Gordon and others and completely rebuild, but probably won't. Chicago seems like a potential fit. New front office generally = more willingness to deal and less need to win. Porter is expiring at 27.5. Sato and Thad Young have a couple years left but at reasonable numbers and could fit this roster.