Celtics' top ten assets

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,037
What would people rank the Celtics' top 10 assets as, including picks, while factoring in contracts and expected future value? I'll take a stab but interested in seeing what the consensus is:

1. 2017 Nets
2. Isaiah Thomas
3. Jaylen Brown
4. 2018 Nets
5. Marcus Smart
6. Jae Crowder
7. Avery Bradley
8. Al Horford
9. Kelly Olynyk
10. Ante Zizic
 

DannyDarwinism

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 7, 2007
4,880
1. 2017 Nets
2. 2018 Nets
3. IT4 (due to defense and concerns on how he'll age, I suspect he's not as highly valued by the rest of the league as Celtics fans might expect)
4. Jaylen
5. Crowder (his contract gives him the slight edge over Smart, who I'd take all things equal)
6. Smart
7. Horford
8. Bradley
9. Olynyk
10. Zizic
 

chilidawg

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 22, 2015
5,911
Cultural hub of the universe
What would people rank the Celtics' top 10 assets as, including picks, while factoring in contracts and expected future value? I'll take a stab but interested in seeing what the consensus is:

1. 2017 Nets
2. Isaiah Thomas
3. Jaylen Brown
4. 2018 Nets
5. Marcus Smart
6. Jae Crowder
7. Avery Bradley
8. Al Horford
9. Kelly Olynyk
10. Ante Zizic
That's a pretty good list imo.
 

Koufax

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
5,929
I'd switch Zizic and Olynyk. Double 'z's are better than double 'ys' in Scrabble (except of course there is only one 'z' in the set). Also the shiny object far away is without flaws; the known object close by is never fully appreciated.
 

Ale Xander

Hamilton
SoSH Member
Oct 31, 2013
72,203
What would people rank the Celtics' top 10 assets as, including picks, while factoring in contracts and expected future value? I'll take a stab but interested in seeing what the consensus is:

1. 2017 Nets
2. Isaiah Thomas
3. Jaylen Brown
4. 2018 Nets
5. Marcus Smart
6. Jae Crowder
7. Avery Bradley
8. Al Horford
9. Kelly Olynyk
10. Ante Zizic
1. 2017 Nets
2. 2018 Nets
3. Jaylen
4. IT
5. Bradley
6. Smart
7. Stevens
8. Horford
9. 2019 Memphis
10. Crowder
 

Sprowl

mikey lowell of the sandbox
Dope
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2006
34,435
Haiku
Split from Celtics 2016 roster and assets...

***

Assets for trading purposes might be different from assets for team achievement: Crowder's contract makes him very attractive to others, but perhaps less so for the Celtics, who might give Brown his job soon. Similarly, Bradley's play might make him more valuable to another team than the Celtics, since Smart has taken his job for now.

for playing purposes:

1. NJ 2017 (Fultz' ceiling is blue sky)
2. NJ 2018 (could be a #1 pick, nuff said)
3. Tiny (peaking before our eyes, enjoy him)
4. Horford (best big man Celtics have had since KG)
5. Smart (having his DJ breakout year as havoc-maker)
6. Crowder (chemistry guy on a great contract, but replaceable)
7. Bradley (good shooter, fine defender, but replaceable)
8. Olynyk (back to pre-injury effectiveness, could break out)
9. Brown (lots of promise, but still streaky and inexperienced)
10. Stevens


for trading purposes:

1. NJ 2017
2. NJ 2018
3. Brown (multiple years of control, excellence after next year)
4. Crowder (great contract for a 3-and-D guy with Oakley glare)
5. Tiny (great contract, but no other team believes he'll last either)
6. Bradley (cheap contract won't last, needs the right team)
7. Horford (fully priced, and on the way down)
8. Zizic
9. Olynyk (still a role player, and about to become more expensive)
10. Memphis 2019
 

Drocca

darrell foster wallace
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
17,585
Raleigh, NC
Here's mine. I really focused on the 'asset' part which is why I have Thomas so low, Crowder so high and even Brown so high even though I'm not totally sold yet.


1. 2017 Nets

2. Jaylen Brown

3. 2018 Nets

4. Marcus Smart

5. Jae Crowder

6. Al Horford

7. Isaiah Thomas

8. Avery Bradley

9. Ante Zizic

10. 2019 Memphis
 

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
Moderator
SoSH Member
for trading purposes:

1. NJ 2017
2. NJ 2018
3. Brown (multiple years of control, excellence after next year)
4. Crowder (great contract for a 3-and-D guy with Oakley glare)
5. Tiny (great contract, but no other team believes he'll last either)
6. Bradley (cheap contract won't last, needs the right team)
7. Horford (fully priced, and on the way down)
8. Zizic
9. Olynyk (still a role player, and about to become more expensive)
10. Memphis 2019
I think this list is exactly right. I'd probably rather have Brown than the 2018 pick, but GMs like to wish upon a star and consequently will overvalue the chance of the ping-pong balls falling their way.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,037
I think this list is exactly right. I'd probably rather have Brown than the 2018 pick, but GMs like to wish upon a star and consequently will overvalue the chance of the ping-pong balls falling their way.
How is Marcus Smart not a top 10 asset? That's nuts.
 

Jeff Van GULLY

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
4,026
1. Isaiah Thomas
2. Nets 2017
3. Brown
4. Nets 2018
5. Crowder
6. Bradley
7. Horford
8. Smart
9. Zizic
10. Memphis 2019

Kelly Olynyk is going to be a free agent. He's a rental and I don't see much value to other teams for him. Since he won't be getting megabucks on the market there's no big advantage to trading for him.
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
8,040
How is Marcus Smart not a top 10 asset? That's nuts.
His days of being cheap are winding down. 4.5 mil next year is fine but he can be a RFA after that. Will someone offer him 20+ mil a year? I can see a rebuilding team preferring the Memphis pick.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
30,386
I guess I am the only one who sees the 2018 Nets pick as being more valuable than the 2017 Nets pick. While it's true that the Nets might not be the worst team in the league next year (there seems to be a couple of new contenders), the talent in 2018 seems higher than this year: Ayton, Porter, and Doncic each seem to have a higher ceiling than Fultz and that's not even including some other folks who might jump up into the top tier.

Here's a recent report on a couple of them: http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2017/01/18/
 

bowiac

Caveat: I know nothing about what I speak
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 18, 2003
12,945
New York, NY
1. 2017 Nets Pick
2. Jae Crowder
3. Marcus Smart
4. 2018 Nets Pick
5. Jaylen Brown
6. Isaiah Thomas
7. Kelly Olynyk
8. Ante Zizic
9. Avery Bradley
10. 2019 Memphis Pick
 

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
Moderator
SoSH Member
How is Marcus Smart not a top 10 asset? That's nuts.
Good catch. He's going to get expensive after next season, so as a trade asset he probably slots in below Crowder, but ahead of Bradley.

Smart is the guy I think is least likely to be traded. He's more valuable to the C's than he is as a trade chip, since it's unlikely that Danny will retain both IT4 and AB beyond next season.
 

Was (Not Wasdin)

family crest has godzilla
SoSH Member
Jul 26, 2007
3,705
The Short Bus
1. Nets 2017 pick
2. Nets 2018 pick

3. Crowder
4. Brown
5. Smart

6. IT4
7. Bradley
8. 2019 Memphis pick

9. KO
10. Zizic

I'd be ok with assets in the top group involved in a trade for an established star, second group for a very good player/star with warts, and so on down.

I've got IT and Bradley lower because I'm not familiar enough with the new CBA rules. If a team traded for Bradley or IT, could they extend them after this season (as the Celtics could)? That may make guys like Smart, Bradley, IT and Crowder more valuable to a buyer.
 

NoXInNixon

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 24, 2008
5,282
I think IT has tremendous trade value. If they trade him this offseason because they drafted a PG at #1 or #2, he will probably be packaged with some extra draft picks for a solid veteran on a team looking to get younger. A team like that could use an exciting all-star to put butts in the seats.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,395
I think most of these have Zizic a bit too low. A lot of the draft and Euro analysts say based on this big season if he were in the draft this year he'd be a lottery pick, many would have him top 10. So basically as valuable or more than the pick NOP just traded.
 

bowiac

Caveat: I know nothing about what I speak
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 18, 2003
12,945
New York, NY
I think most of these have Zizic a bit too low. A lot of the draft and Euro analysts say based on this big season if he were in the draft this year he'd be a lottery pick, many would have him top 10. So basically as valuable or more than the pick NOP just traded.
Can you link to some of these analysts? I saw one stats model which put him 9th, but I haven't seen anything from the scouting side.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,395
Can you link to some of these analysts? I saw one stats model which put him 9th, but I haven't seen anything from the scouting side.
On my phone but O'Connor has him in the lottery and has tweeted some other models and scouts who think similarly.
Sporting News had an anonymous GM quote https://www.google.com/amp/www.sportingnews.com/amp/nba/news/nba-trade-rumors-boston-celtics-ante-zizic-guerschon-yabusele-carmelo-anthony/1kiivyhdzmzd31t0o9d4imaldn

I think eurobasket or eurohoops had something similar too.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,037
I think it's pretty telling that even Celtics fans can't agree on the value of their own players so I can only imagine how difficult it is for Ainge as every team will value his players differently.
 

Imbricus

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 26, 2017
4,793
I haven't seen mention of this anywhere yet. Chad Finn took a stab at ranking the Celtics' top 20 assets here. Interestingly he made Ainge #1 and Stevens #2 -- I think you could certainly make a case for ranking those two higher than any pick or player, considering how long they may be around and what kind of impact they've already had. But sticking to players and draft picks, this is what his top 10 would look like:

1. This year's Nets pick
2. Jaylen
3. Next year's Nets pick
4. Horford
5. Smart
6. Thomas
7. Bradley
8. Crowder
9. Zizic
10. Yabusele

I think I'd flip Jaylen and next year's Nets pick. Horford seems high and Thomas low. If there are GMs who buy into this ranking of Yabusele as #10, it's probably sell high time on him before he actually sees an NBA game.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,395
I think Finn's top 4 there is right and in the right order. Bkn pick next year could be much lower than this year's (team could be better plus lotto luck) I'd have Crowder, Thomas, Bradley, Smart, Zizic, Yabusele filling it out.
 

Sprowl

mikey lowell of the sandbox
Dope
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2006
34,435
Haiku
I think Finn's top 4 there is right and in the right order. Bkn pick next year could be much lower than this year's (team could be better plus lotto luck) I'd have Crowder, Thomas, Bradley, Smart, Zizic, Yabusele filling it out.
Would BKN 2018 be that much lower? Aside from future discounting, it looks as if the top of the 2018 draft has higher potential than 2017, if only because it has a few big men and the Celtics as currently constituted are too guard-heavy.
 

Imbricus

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 26, 2017
4,793
I think it depends on definition of asset.
This is a good point, and everyone's going to have a different definition, I suspect. I would drop Horford because yes he's a very good asset, but he's on a max contract and he's not quite an elite player. If you tried to trade him, is the market really that good? I would flip Brooklyn pick next year with Jaylen based on early chatter that next year's draft will be even stronger than this year's, and the Nets may be better but should still be a bottom five team. Also I like Jaylen a lot but am not quite sold that he's going to be a consistent go-to guy as opposed to kind of streaky. Still, Jaylen's only 20 and has had a solid first year -- we'll know a lot better what he is by next year at this time.
 

tbrown_01923

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 29, 2006
777
Nets were considerably better with Lin on the floor this year. They won 38% of his his GP (13 wins 34 gp) - which if projected out to 82 games would be ~31 wins. 31 wins this year would be a three way tie for the 6-9 spot in the lottery. It's a nice asset, but what type of player do you hope to get in that range? It is too bad Brooklyn has nothing remotely worth trading that pick for...

caveat: i counted the wins by hand, in the espn player card.
 

Imbricus

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 26, 2017
4,793
31, 32 wins seems like an upside for the Nets next year. Barring a big offseason move, downside is probably 18, 19. Lin seems a bit injury prone, so I'd be surprised if he went 82 games. Plus, he made them better, but not sure he makes them a 31-win team -- they did rack up a bunch of wins toward season's end, when some of their lottery-bound opponents were probably a bit less incentivized. Then you have bad lottery teams this year that will get undeniably stronger next year. Ingram will have a year of seasoning; he could be joined by Lonzo Ball, so Lakers could be okay. Philly could really surprise on the upside if everyone stays healthy. Meanwhile, Brooklyn is rolling the dice with a bunch of late 1st round, 2nd round picks.
 

smastroyin

simpering whimperer
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2002
20,684
There is a ton of variation involved with the Nets pick, and that uncertainty is part of its lower value. It is in the Nets best interest to trade Brook Lopez for guys that will be around a while or picks to turn into guys that will be around a while. So if they trade him, they might be terrible again. But, they will have some competition. If the Lakers convey their pick this year, then they will not get any help and will have no motive to be better. They will stink. the Celtics should be absolutely rooting for ping pong balls that mean the Lakers keep their pick this year. The Suns probably won't trade Bledsoe, but if they did, they would be on the fast track to 20 or less wins. The Knicks and Magic are probably going to be terrible. The Sixers could win anywhere from 20-40 games next year depending on who is healthy. The Kings are going to give their draft picks a ton of run and could be really really bad.

Point is, right now, before we've even done ping pong balls or the playoffs, I think it is fair to value Brown ahead of the 18 pick, because of that variability. By the time we tip the 17-18 season, that value may change significantly. For instance, the Nets might sign a top FA, or Jaylen Brown might find his groove and lead the Celtics to a playoff series win. etc.
 
Last edited:

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,395
Would BKN 2018 be that much lower? Aside from future discounting, it looks as if the top of the 2018 draft has higher potential than 2017, if only because it has a few big men and the Celtics as currently constituted are too guard-heavy.
To me there is a lot of uncertainty there. Free Agency, draft, player development, injuries next season, trades, how the 2018 prospects develop etc. Looking at BRK they will probably be one of the 5 worst teams next year, but even if they are... the say 7th pick next draft is probably not as valuable as Brown. They could also sneak even higher, they went 11-13 from March 1 on when they were healthier (Lin, LeVert) I don't think they can sustain that, but even as we saw late this year, if they're hanging around, they'll make up games as teams who DO have their own pick start accelerating the tank. If I thought it was a no-doubt top 2 lottery odds pick I might move it over Brown, but I don't think there is anywhere near that level of confidence on it, and as the draft gets closer I think we'll see a separation of 2-4 players who are Brown level or better and then a mashup of ok guys, same way I feel about this year, except the Cs are guaranteed a top 4 pick this year.
 

Vegas Sox Fan

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
1,650
The Dirty Desert
I don't think it would be top 10 but it seems people are over looking the Celtics 18 pick. It will be a late first but I would think it has more immediate value than the uncertainty of Memphis or LA picks.
 

JakeRae

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
8,123
New York, NY
I haven't seen mention of this anywhere yet. Chad Finn took a stab at ranking the Celtics' top 20 assets here. Interestingly he made Ainge #1 and Stevens #2 -- I think you could certainly make a case for ranking those two higher than any pick or player, considering how long they may be around and what kind of impact they've already had. But sticking to players and draft picks, this is what his top 10 would look like:

1. This year's Nets pick
2. Jaylen
3. Next year's Nets pick
4. Horford
5. Smart
6. Thomas
7. Bradley
8. Crowder
9. Zizic
10. Yabusele

I think I'd flip Jaylen and next year's Nets pick. Horford seems high and Thomas low. If there are GMs who buy into this ranking of Yabusele as #10, it's probably sell high time on him before he actually sees an NBA game.
This list, and most of the others, massively underrates Crowder's value. Given his contract, he's probably our most valuable asset after the picks and Jaylen. I can see reasonable arguments for placing a higher value on Horford or IT, but not anyone else. The extra length of Crowder's bargain contract easily bumps him over Bradley or Smart (plus, he's a better player than either).
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
36,920
Hingham, MA
This list, and most of the others, massively underrates Crowder's value. Given his contract, he's probably our most valuable asset after the picks and Jaylen. I can see reasonable arguments for placing a higher value on Horford or IT, but not anyone else. The extra length of Crowder's bargain contract easily bumps him over Bradley or Smart (plus, he's a better player than either).
Again, asset to the team vs. trade value. As an asset to the team he is more valuable than Horford. So is IT. But in terms of trade value... meh.
 

JakeRae

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
8,123
New York, NY
Again, asset to the team vs. trade value. As an asset to the team he is more valuable than Horford. So is IT. But in terms of trade value... meh.
I don't understand this distinction unless the basis of it is that some teams are bad at player valuation.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,037
I don't understand this distinction unless the basis of it is that some teams are bad at player valuation.
Al Horford is more valuable on the court than Jaylen Brown. But if you put both of them on the trade market, Jaylen is going to get you more due to a much cheaper contract, years of cheap control, and projectability. That's really the distinction.
 

JakeRae

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
8,123
New York, NY
Al Horford is more valuable on the court than Jaylen Brown. But if you put both of them on the trade market, Jaylen is going to get you more due to a much cheaper contract, years of cheap control, and projectability. That's really the distinction.
This distinction makes sense, although asset would be the wrong term for describing performance value. The distinction I was responding to was a poster claiming Crowder is more valuable than Horford as "an asset to the team" but less in trade. That makes no sense.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
36,920
Hingham, MA
It is because he makes very little for the price. But Horford still probably has more value in a trade since he is a better player.
 

DannyDarwinism

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 7, 2007
4,880
But other teams have salary caps too. Al Horford, at his age and under his contract, might be an attractive asset to some teams, depending on their rosters. Crowder under his contract should be an attractive asset to virtually all teams. In the right deal, with the right trading partner, I'd imagine they could get significantly more for Horford than they could get for Crowder, but I'd also think that Crowder has a much broader market.
 

the moops

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 19, 2016
4,673
Saint Paul, MN
I would think Jae Crowder needs to be higher on that list considering his ridiculous contract. Definitely needs to be higher than Bradley.

1. 2017 BRK
2. Jaylen
3. 2018 BRK
4. Thomas
5. Horford
6. Crowder
7. Smart
8. Bradley
9. Zizic
10. 2019 MEM
 

luckiestman

Son of the Harpy
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
32,598
I would think Jae Crowder needs to be higher on that list considering his ridiculous contract. Definitely needs to be higher than Bradley.

1. 2017 BRK
2. Jaylen
3. 2018 BRK
4. Thomas
5. Horford
6. Crowder
7. Smart
8. Bradley
9. Zizic
10. 2019 MEM

If you consider his contract (which is a liability) you are talking about equity value, not asset value.
 

the moops

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 19, 2016
4,673
Saint Paul, MN
If you consider his contract (which is a liability) you are talking about equity value, not asset value.
Just answering the posed question poindexter :)

What would people rank the Celtics' top 10 assets as, including picks, while factoring in contracts and expected future value?
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
I'm guessing the difference between Crowder, Smart and Bradley is so small it comes down to the trading partner's need. I'd also guess being the 10th most valuable asset doesn't necessarily mean you can sell high. How much value does the 10th asset actually have? It's funny how no one believes how high Yabusele is getting rated and they think we should sell high... yet they don't even question the Zizic ranking or mention selling high on him.
 

wilked

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 17, 2005
4,031
I would think Jae Crowder needs to be higher on that list considering his ridiculous contract. Definitely needs to be higher than Bradley.

1. 2017 BRK
2. Jaylen
3. 2018 BRK
4. Thomas
5. Horford
6. Crowder
7. Smart
8. Bradley
9. Zizic
10. 2019 MEM
Anyone thing this order hasn't changed?
 
Last edited:

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
I could see someone making a valid case over keeping AB and Smart over IT. I just don't think it's all that probable.
 

NoXInNixon

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 24, 2008
5,282
I could see someone making a valid case over keeping AB and Smart over IT. I just don't think it's all that probable.
It really depends on what DA is offered for IT. Is there some team out there that thinks he actually is one of the four best guards in the NBA? Or is there a team out there that thinks he could help with ticket sales? Maybe there's a team that just missed the playoffs this year and gives up their pick #10-#14 plus a useful big man because they think IT gets them into the playoffs next year. Who knows? DA should have a very busy offseason.