Danny Ainge had remarkable success building teams with the potential to win it all. While pursuing big names when feasible
(such as Durant and Davis), the core strategy was building a crew of 5 or so players with very good to all star caliber talent.
When fully healthy, such a crew can challenge any other team .
The gothca: "when fully healthy". It never happened. And when one of a "crew of 5" is out, the team can still be good,
but not a real challenger (the total being greater than the sum of the parts).
Alas, this is not suprising. The probability of someone out of 5 being hurt is a lot bigger than someone out of a "big 2" strategy!
For example, with a 20% chance of season ending injury, the odds of everyone of 5 staying healthy (1- 0.8^5) is 32%; while with 2 players it is 64%.
Consider 3 broad approaches to moving forward: try again, rebuild, and recuperate.
* A try again strategy decides that 2021 was a flukey bad year, especially in terms of player health. Next year is bound to be better!
* A rebuild strategy decides that 2021 was real. Big changes are needed to avoid the same mediocre fate.
* A recuperate strategy decides that 2021 was real, but a planned retry has great potential.
The try again strategy seems foolish. What are the odds of Kemba attaining a consistent 90% of his ceiling?
Can TL stay on the court if used the same way? Will the mix of good vs. bad Marcus improve? And do you want to rush Jaylen's recovery?
A rebuild strategy seems like a long shot. Who is taking Kemba, without returning an equivalent problem?
And a harsher approach (such as breaking up the Jays) seems reactionary.
Do you really want to give up on a core - one that was always missing key players -- that went to game 6 of the 2021 ECF, and game 7 in 2018
(where even a healthy Shane Larkin or Daniel Theis probably gets them to the finals and a puncher's chance against the GSW juggernaut).
So consider a recuperate strategy. One that attempts to deal with the "good health" gotcha.
The idea is to manage with a prime goal of improving health outcomes, which means playing the kids in the first part of the season.
The hope is that the kids get better with usage, and the extra rest/recuperation means the returning players stay healthy.
If it works come April you have a team that can make some noise. The downside is the kids just aren't good, the extra rest does no good, and you have a high lottery team.
Consider these directives:
1) Kemba, find and do a procedure/regime that has a nine month timeframe. See you in March
2) Jaylen, don't try to come back too soon - it did not work for Hayward. See you in February
3) Robert, you need to strengthen your inner core. Find a yoga immersion center (or whatever), and see you in January
4) Marcus: you have been clobbering yourself with heroic plays for several years. And you aren't getting younger. And you need to shorten the stupid spells and lengthen the intelligent ones.
Find a meditation center to retreat to - where you can recenter your body and soul. See you in December.
BTW: you do the above successfully, you are going to do a lot better in your next contract then if you increase your point production but continue to do everything else the same.
5) Jason. Your skill set is essentially there. Now it is time to focus on leadership. Making players around you better, learning when to take over and when to involve others, and recognizing when it is best to switch between the two. The first few months of 2021-22 are an ideal time to work on this.
6) Payton, Romeo, Aaron. Get ready for some real run the first few months. Work on your deficiencies this summer, and be ready to show us what you can do
7) Jabari. You are going to get real run. A chance to show us that there is a high lottery pick still in that basketball body of yours.
8) Evan. Get healthy, get wise. With a bit of luck, you are a key component of a deep-playoff team.
9) Tristan. Stay healthy
The gist - give the Ainge legacy one more year, but do it in a way that proactively attempts to deal with the "if healthy" gotchas.