I think Indy is going to end up having to deal him, because you can’t pay 2 guys $20Mish to play the same non-premium position.
I just don’t really see how a Sabonis deal works for the Celtics: I’d rather pay Jaylen ~25M to play the 2-4, and then find Baynes/Amir Johnson 2.0. If you trade for Sabonis, you’re always going to be unhappy that he doesn’t quite fill the right holes on this roster.
Sabonis is a good player, but with the Celtics are close enough to contention that they need to really go for fit at the center position, and even think in terms of specific playoff matchups (Embiid, Giannis). Someone like Marc Gasol would be perfect, but that’s not happening for salary-matching reasons.
Yep, been saying Sabonis would eventually be available since Indy drafted Bitadze. I thought Pritchard may wait until the trade deadline to dangle Sabonis but in light of the cap/China issue he's being shrewd and getting ahead of this evolving situation. Also, Goga showed promise in preseason and can fill Indy's back-up 5 with Leaf.
While I've advocated for Danny getting Sabonis since July, I agree with plenty of what you said above. BUT I do have a quibble with you calling Sabonis "
Baynes/Amir Johnson 2.0" Those vets played part-time for the Celtics, Sabonis would be a 30mpg player. Domantas is trending more like
Horford/young Baynes 2.0. Sabonis has Al's offensive and Bayne's defensive potential, in a Brad/Celtic system. Except you'd be getting Sabonis' prime 24-27 aged seasons.
Marc Gasol isn't perfect IMO. BIGs skills deteriorate quickly, he's old (34), a step slower, can't switch on the perimeter, expensive and doesn't match up with the Celtics timeline (2021 and beyond). There's a good chance Gasol will breakdown this year after playing all postseason with Toronto and with Spain this Summer. I wouldn't touch him.
Your right Indy can't pay Turner $18MM (a good contract) and Sabonis ~$20-25MM (what his RFA deal will be is a little cloudy now) to play the same position. Their cap will be over ~$100MM next Summer (with VO due up the following season). From Indy's perspective, Jaylen Brown would be tantalizing, but Danny probably isn't offering them JB. So you don't have to be concerned about vacating
Jaylen Brown Island. From USA Basketball and preseason Jaylen has shown a lot, he is much bigger/stronger than last season and at his age his strength will only continue to increase. His handle appears to be a bit better. Jaylen has clearly put in the work and has developed from a 2 as a rookie to a swing 4 now and fits perfectly into the Celtics system/timeline, as you predicted. I expect Jaylen to go to RFA and get a contract next Summer.
Danny should offer Langford (Mr. Indiana), TL and a 2020 Milwaukee or Celtic 1st round pick for Sabonis in the odd chance Pritchard wants a handful of young, cheap players with some promise. BUT I agree w/
mcpickl that Kevin will pass on that and probably ship him out West (guessing San Antonio?). I'd be thrilled for the Celtics to get Sabonis and think he'd be a perfect fit but Pritchard isn't going to shore up the Celtic's biggest weakness with a future All-Star.