Celtics 1st Round Selection (3rd overall): Jaylen Brown
- Thread starter pdaj
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I'm on board. He's a freak athlete and I think he can defend. Wouldn't be surprised to see him develop into something similar to Jimmy Butler down the road. His shot needs work as does his ball handling, but from what I watched of his games he was put in a really tough spot.
I'm okay with it. I think Brad Stevens is just the guy who can figure out how to get the best out of Brown. And if he does, Brown is going to be a beast..
It's not like he started playing basketball a year ago; his handle is likely to remain a liability. On the plus side, his workouts do offer some hope that his ugly shooting numbers at Cal were partly due to a lack of help, and by all accounts he'll be at least adequate defensively, with the potential to develop into an elite stopper.
I don't love the pick, but I trust Danny enough not to tear out my hair over it; it's not like he passed on a sure-fire star to pick Brown.
Weak jump shooter, turns the ball over a ton. Not loving this pick. I am sure they see him as plus defender, but Marcus has the defender that can't shoot position covered.
Hopefully there was something about the system he was in that hurt him.
Hopefully there was something about the system he was in that hurt him.
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If we couldn't move the pick for Dunn this was my guy. He was among the PAC-10 scoring leaders in PTs/40 avg 15.0 in less than 28 mpg utilizing his quick first step, explosive elevation in the paint, and savvy ability to create his own shot in traffic that projects to play up in NBA pick-n-roll sets. His shooting form is very good with a nice release and soft touch already at age 19 so I look for him to be a plus jump shooter. If Brown reaches his potential he is a #1 option wing. Fun player, good energy.....I really feel Celtics fans are going to love his game.
HRB I hope he becomes a decent shooter, but how often do guys that can't shoot well at one level, get to be above average at a higher level?
Pretty often, even more so when they only have 1 year in college (since a lot of guys can't shoot as Freshmen and improve over their college career).
Didn't he start playing when he was 14, so 5 years ago? Or am I mixing him up with someone else? Isn't that what was cited for his low basketball IQ?
Apparently he shot 39% from 3P in high school and shot almost as well as Murray during workouts. This would seem to indicate that he's at least average at shooting the ball and may be better.
I posted this in another thread and it's not from an impartial source, but one guy argued that Brown may be a better pick than Ingram here: http://www.dailycal.org/2016/06/22/jaylen-browns-case-to-be-picked-2nd/
food for thought.]
Jimmy Butler was 0-4 in three's as a freshman. Bradley Beal shot 34%, Chandler Parsons 31%. Kawhi Leonard 20%. Perimeter shooting is one of the most easily learned skills even if Brown wasn't a good shooter but here's the thing.....I feel he already IS a good shooter who played in an offense with no spacing while being asked to do it all as a 19-year old freshman.
Brown has good mechanics, release and a soft touch. I expect him to be a plus shooter from the perimeter and truly aren't concerned at all about that aspect of his game. Labeling a 19-year old as a shooter or non-shooter as an adult shouldn't be results-oriented......mechanics and other factors carry a ton more weight.
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Here's some detailed scouting notes from Joshua Riddell at Draftexpress on Brown. Of note:
- Great open court speed, explosive, lateral movements
- Can explode to the rim off the dribble in traffic - wants to dunk everything around the rim and he can
- Will be one of the best athletes for a SF when he gets into NBA
- Lots of athletic potential, on-court skill not fully developed
- Overall feel for the game is poor
- Great in transition - can handle the ball
- High turnover rate - 15%+ - charges, sloppy passes
- Victim of his poor shot selection rather than form
- Elite first step - can get to the rim even with guys in front of him
- Decent ball skills, nice moves but can get out of control and reckless at times
- Potential to attack out of pick and roll - can use his speed to get past big man on edge
- Will split PNR and explode to rim
- Poor reads out of PNR as well - doesn't make great decisions
- Below average finishing at rim - tries to force shots against big man instead of kicking it out
- Great wingspan to get into passing lanes but gambles too much and gets out of position
- High usage, low efficiency type ball dominator
Pro Outlook
Showed enough on the court plus athletic talent to be a top 5 pick
Should go no lower than 10: Range should be 4-8
Still a gamble because he may never improve feel/decision making
May need some time to adjust to pace of game, especially as he works on decision making
Could grow into superstar but should at least be a nice bench scorer
- Great open court speed, explosive, lateral movements
- Can explode to the rim off the dribble in traffic - wants to dunk everything around the rim and he can
- Will be one of the best athletes for a SF when he gets into NBA
- Lots of athletic potential, on-court skill not fully developed
- Overall feel for the game is poor
- Great in transition - can handle the ball
- High turnover rate - 15%+ - charges, sloppy passes
- Victim of his poor shot selection rather than form
- Elite first step - can get to the rim even with guys in front of him
- Decent ball skills, nice moves but can get out of control and reckless at times
- Potential to attack out of pick and roll - can use his speed to get past big man on edge
- Will split PNR and explode to rim
- Poor reads out of PNR as well - doesn't make great decisions
- Below average finishing at rim - tries to force shots against big man instead of kicking it out
- Great wingspan to get into passing lanes but gambles too much and gets out of position
- High usage, low efficiency type ball dominator
Pro Outlook
Showed enough on the court plus athletic talent to be a top 5 pick
Should go no lower than 10: Range should be 4-8
Still a gamble because he may never improve feel/decision making
May need some time to adjust to pace of game, especially as he works on decision making
Could grow into superstar but should at least be a nice bench scorer
Maybe this video will help people a bit on Jaylen. Isaiah can mostly be ignored; although he does have one interesting story about Larry Bird during the shooting drill.
The dude can get to the rim and finish.
He had an incredibly high usage rate, so the TOs aren't a surprise. I'm not saying they aren't a concern, as he needs to improve his handle, but with professionals playing around him, I'd expect this not to be a liability in his game as he develops into an adequate passer.
I think he's a solid rebounder, and if he can refine his jump shot and benefit from better spacing, he could be a star with tremendous defense. He's also got a good head on his shoulders and comes across as mature in interviews, which never hurts when turning pro. He's a warrior in the practice gym, and IT has worked out with him in the past.
Love it. If he was presently a 40% 3-point shooter or something, I'd be grinning a lot more.
He had an incredibly high usage rate, so the TOs aren't a surprise. I'm not saying they aren't a concern, as he needs to improve his handle, but with professionals playing around him, I'd expect this not to be a liability in his game as he develops into an adequate passer.
I think he's a solid rebounder, and if he can refine his jump shot and benefit from better spacing, he could be a star with tremendous defense. He's also got a good head on his shoulders and comes across as mature in interviews, which never hurts when turning pro. He's a warrior in the practice gym, and IT has worked out with him in the past.
Love it. If he was presently a 40% 3-point shooter or something, I'd be grinning a lot more.
Think of it this way. If he shot 40% from 3P range last year, I'm thinking there would be a lot of people saying that he should be the first pick in the draft.
His upside is some sort of Kawhi Leonard-Jimmy Butler hybrid. I love the pick, it's easier for me to see Brown learning to shoot and turning into a star than anyone else on the board. I'll be interested to see how Stevens deploys him. There's all kinds of interesting small ball combinations on the roster now.
Danny was on with T&R and was saying they've been scouting him for a couple of years now. He saw Brown play in camps against last year's top picks and was one of the best players on the floor. He said that he doesn't care about the second half of the season at Cal and also said that he was at the games he struggled in the Pac-12 Tournament so he has context as to why he struggled. Seemed to insinuate that the system hurt him.
I'm not down on this pick. Seems like some of Brown's issues were related to team and system, and if Stevens could turn the Brandon Basses, Jordan Crawfords, and Evan Turners into reasonably productive players then he ought to be able to work with an athletic freak like Brown.
I think the downside of this pick is Jae Crowder, and there is major upside here.
I think the downside of this pick is Jae Crowder, and there is major upside here.
Which means that because he had 10 three pointers rim out last year, we got a steal. If every 3 games one more shot from behind the arc went in, then everything is different.
He wasn't much of a rebounder in his season at Cal, and that's probably the stat that translates most directly from college to the pros. Thankfully, as a 6-7 guy who's likely to play the wing, he doesn't need to be an elite rebounder. I'm more concerned with the questions about his ball-handling and decision-making; those are things that threaten to sink him (as well as his shooting, but I'm optimistic he'll be OK there).
Brown was 17th in entire conference in Reb40 by my calculation which includes every 4 and 5. While you are correct that he doesn't need to be an elite rebounder he is active and has shown a good nose for the ball as evidence by these numbers and the eyes so I'm not concerned with that part of his game at all. Like you, I'm fine with his shooting.
I think Brown will be a good fit for the Celtics. I'm by no means an expert here, but my main complaint in watching the C's last year was that they didn't seem to have anyone that could penetrate consistently except Isiah. If he wasn't on or the defense started to target him, the Celtics became a perimeter shooting team (which they were not very good at). From what I can tell about Brown, he can get inside effectively from the wings, and that is going to be huge for the C's offense.
Apparently he can play some D, so he will fit in on the other end. If he becomes even a passable shooter, he's going to be very valuable.
I like the idea of upgrading this facet of the offense from the high draft position, and looking to veterans (who should be more projectable than any draft pick) to add the shooting that we need.
Apparently he can play some D, so he will fit in on the other end. If he becomes even a passable shooter, he's going to be very valuable.
I like the idea of upgrading this facet of the offense from the high draft position, and looking to veterans (who should be more projectable than any draft pick) to add the shooting that we need.
I linked this in one of the pre-draft threads, but this profile on Brown is worth a read: https://theundefeated.com/features/jaylen-brown-the-2016-nba-drafts-renaissance-man/
He seems like a pretty unique guy and it sounds like his older mentors (Isiah Thomas, Sharif Abdul Rahim) think the world of him. According to Bill Walton, "He is one of the most interesting, thoughtful, conscientious and inspirational people I’ve ever had the chance to work with." And Bill Walton's never prone to hyperbole, so this must be true.
I was pretty down on him a couple of weeks ago based on a relatively high bust potential, but some you guys did a good job of laying out a good case that the mess at Cal, and their lack of jump shooters to space the floor, needs to be taken into context when looking at his college stats. It's pretty reasonable to think that a 19 year old can tighten up his handle and improve his jump shot- if HRB says his form is solid, I'm inclined to believe it, but the assist to turnover ratio and low steal rate is more concerning to me. That said, his ceiling is as high as anyone in this draft outside of Simmons, and I think the Celtics are a very good organizational fit to nurture his talent.
At the very least, the Celtics got some strength and athleticism on the wing for the future. Brown and Yabusele are already NBA ready, body-wise. They should be able to bully opposing forwards at their respective positions in a couple of years.
He seems like a pretty unique guy and it sounds like his older mentors (Isiah Thomas, Sharif Abdul Rahim) think the world of him. According to Bill Walton, "He is one of the most interesting, thoughtful, conscientious and inspirational people I’ve ever had the chance to work with." And Bill Walton's never prone to hyperbole, so this must be true.
I was pretty down on him a couple of weeks ago based on a relatively high bust potential, but some you guys did a good job of laying out a good case that the mess at Cal, and their lack of jump shooters to space the floor, needs to be taken into context when looking at his college stats. It's pretty reasonable to think that a 19 year old can tighten up his handle and improve his jump shot- if HRB says his form is solid, I'm inclined to believe it, but the assist to turnover ratio and low steal rate is more concerning to me. That said, his ceiling is as high as anyone in this draft outside of Simmons, and I think the Celtics are a very good organizational fit to nurture his talent.
At the very least, the Celtics got some strength and athleticism on the wing for the future. Brown and Yabusele are already NBA ready, body-wise. They should be able to bully opposing forwards at their respective positions in a couple of years.
In the short term I think the playoffs also showed they need some depth/quality behind Crowder. I would think the Celtics (with whatever input IT gave after working out with him) view that as his floor.
Edit: Clarity
Brown was 34th in the conference in TRB% (pace adjusted).
He was also 44th in the conference in STL%, 33rd in AST%, and 42nd in BLK%. His highest ranking among rate stats? Turnovers, where he was 29th. Overall, he was 59th in the conference by BPM, 27th defensively, and 67th offensively. He has the 8th best BPM on his own team (excluding guys with effectively no minutes).
Just quickly on the shooting:
Playing with no spacing is hard. That's one reason why stats models look at free throw percentage, and why free throw percentage predicts NBA three point percentage somewhat well. It serves as a proxy for shooting mechanics, and lets us find good shooters playing in bad situations.
Brown shot 65% from the line in college (i.e., basically in line with 29% from three). To compare, Beal shot 34% from three, and 77% from the line. Kawhi shot only 29% from three, but shot 76% from the line. Parsons shot 37% from three (although only 58% from the line). Brown is the only guy on this list with a bad three point percentage and a bad free throw percentage. Maybe he's already a good shooter, but I'm skeptical. The track record for guys who didn't shoot well in college from the line or from three is very poor.
Brown may be fine. All stats can be deceiving, and by all accounts, he's a top tier athlete. However, there's basically nothing statistically about him that suggests he should have been a first round pick, let alone a high lottery selection. He ranked outside the top 100 on Pelton's rankings, and has the worst statistical profile of any top 3 pick since the start of the one-and-done era (I would be surprised if anyone was worse going back further either, but I haven't checked). I'm hoping I'm wrong, but even other guys playing in bad situations tended to show more flashes statistically. Fingers crossed.
Man is this negative. Listening to your analysis he shouldn't have been drafted in the first round? We'll never know for certain, but you are nuts if you think he wasn't getting drafted until the second round.
I would have preferred Bender myself - but many have said Brown might have the highest ceiling after the big two. If a team is stuck in the middle of the road purgatory and cant trade/buy elite talent on the market what do you do? You take a swing for the fences with the highest ceiling elite athlete you can get your hands on. He might bust, but so did that Oden guy... and people were high on him.
I don't believe I said that he shouldn't be a first round pick. I was saying his statistical profile was incredibly poor (i.e., far beyond the ordinary warts you'll sometimes see on guys playing for bad teams) I do give weight to scouting reports, and he would have been in my top 10 or so despite these issues. But the gap between 3 and 10 is a big one in the NBA.
Sure - I was responding to HRB's belief that Brown already "IS a good shooter." Obviously you can be a good NBA player without being a good shooter, although doing so on the wing is a whole lot harder. Simmons was a dominant player statistically despite the lack of shooting after all.
I don't understand a need for a FT proxy on mechanics when it is clear as day that he does have good shooting mechanics and knocked it out of the park at his workouts in the shooting portion. You know who else had good shooting mechanics as a college player? Chandler Parsons.......he of his career 61% FT%. I agree that FT% can serve as a "guide" to project a shooter however when there is other stronger evidence I place much less weight on that proxy. It's player specific to me and to be used in conjunction with traditional scouting and not independently.
I'm not a big stats guy for one-and-done players as this is basing their projection on ages 23-35 off of a result-based model as a 19-year old playing a game using different rules. Certain stats can be useful such as Chriss' RebRate......that is absolutely a red flag. I'm bullish on Jaylen despite stats that I don't feel reflect his true ability at ages 23-35. I'm with you on fingers crossed.
I live in the bay area and have seen him play a bunch. My take is that he has more than a bit of Rondo in him. He is very smart on the court and off. This comes across as arrogance or aloofness to some. He is also reminiscent of Rondo in that he has high-end athleticism and a questionable jump shot. Assuming Stevens can push the right buttons, he will be defensively engaged (again, similar to RR). So a good question is whether we would be happy with Rondo's Celtic career arc for Brown. Not WRT the championships, etc., but in terms of his development and individual impact on the game.
I like Brown generally as a prospect. I like his athleticism and intelligence. I think he'll be a great student for Stevens to work with.
But his basketball skills certainly seem lacking for a #3 overall pick, and that's my biggest problem. If he'd been taken at #8 or so, fine. But #3? I mean, yeah, Adam Morrison was a #3 pick, so there are never guarantees. But McHale was a #3 pick. Dominique Wilkins went third. That Jordan guy, too. More recently, James Harden.
Part of the disappointment I'm feeling is from the realization that this draft didn't seem to offer that kind of player choice at #3, which is one reason why trading the pick was desirable. Part is that, while I can see Brown helping this season, it doesn't seem likely that he'll move the needle much.
He does have upside so there's room to hope. And when Durant signs with us, this whole draft thing will seem like gravy on the cake (or something like that).
But his basketball skills certainly seem lacking for a #3 overall pick, and that's my biggest problem. If he'd been taken at #8 or so, fine. But #3? I mean, yeah, Adam Morrison was a #3 pick, so there are never guarantees. But McHale was a #3 pick. Dominique Wilkins went third. That Jordan guy, too. More recently, James Harden.
Part of the disappointment I'm feeling is from the realization that this draft didn't seem to offer that kind of player choice at #3, which is one reason why trading the pick was desirable. Part is that, while I can see Brown helping this season, it doesn't seem likely that he'll move the needle much.
He does have upside so there's room to hope. And when Durant signs with us, this whole draft thing will seem like gravy on the cake (or something like that).
Because I'm not smart enough to be able to tell good shooting mechanics apart from bad ones. If you are, then that's great. I have to rely on scouting reports for that sort of thing.
From the top hit on "Jaylen Brown shooting mechanics":
If you disagree, then great - I hope you're right. I don't have an eye for that sort of thing, so I need to rely on stats and external reports for that, and they tell me to worry.
Regarding Parsons, as I said, I want to see that a guy shot well from the line or from three in college. Parsons was a good three point shooter his final two seasons, so the free throw percentage isn't as worrisome. It's when a guy does that neither that I regard their mechanics with skepticism.
The numbers aren't perfect, no doubt. Like you said, it's 19-year-old playing a different game. But that's why we have all sorts of fancy models, which try and adjust for these things, and which have actually performed okay, despite their limitations. In my experience, you'll also find more false positives (good stats, bad NBA player) than false negatives (awful stats, good NBA player). Brown's statistics are unprecedented for a top 3 pick since the one-and-done era began. Maybe he's the exception, but I don't like betting on that.
Just having read the scouting reports on Brown, they all say that he is decent mechanically and his shot is far from broken. The main issues I have read are setting his feet and inconsistency on the release/landing spot. Pretty much all of them say he has nice touch and spin on the ball