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Discussion in 'Blinded by the Lombardis: Patriots Forum' started by mwonow, Sep 14, 2015.
Outside of playoff positioning, there's some other individual numbers to watch down the stretch:
--Sony Michel still with shot at 1000 yards. He needs 414 over the next 5 games. If he stays healthy that seems pretty doable.
--James White has 67 catches for 567 yards. He needs 433 yards to reach 1000, about 86/game. Might be tough, but one huge game will put this back in play. He's on pace for 98 catches, so 100 receptions is definitely in play. He has 870 total yards, so 1000 yards from scrimmage should happen.
--Edelman is on pace for 75 catches. Not bad after missing 4 games. He's also on pace for just under 900 yards, so he has an outside shot at 1000 yards as well.
--Josh Gordon has a decent shot at 50 catches, just needing to keep up his current pace. And if he has a big game down the stretch, his has an outside shot at hitting 1000 yards as well, which seems nuts. He'll need to average 90 yards/game.
--Gronk, assuming he plays all 5 games, is also on pace for 50 catches, and about 800 yards, and would need to be ridiculous down the stretch to get 1000. And, knowing his history, I can foresee another game he misses or maybe sits out if things are settled late.
--No one on defense is near any interesting numbers for sacks or interceptions. Ghost needs 3 points to crack 100 again.
And depending on how you define bad-weather locales, I'd add Starr, Elway, and Bennie R as HoF QBs (Ben's a lock) who play(ed) pretty well late season in weather.
And as a tack-on to Brady-he generally plays late season games in NJ and Buffalo, which aint no picnic in December.
AFC East and North are probably the two worst divisions in that regard.
Amazing... he's won more games by 15 or more points than by 7 or less
Also, kind of shocked they've lost 14 games by more than 15 points over this run.
I probably would have had that number near 5
Yeah crazy. 65% of his wins have been by more than a touchdown. 44% have been by more than two touchdowns. Amazing.
Well, they’ve already had two this year, then just quickly off top of my head throw in Ravens playoff game, the opening game versus Buffalo after the Milloy ordeal and the KC game from a few years ago and you’re already at five with even trying too hard.
I remember Marino struggling often in Foxboro and the stats back that up:
8-8 all-time in Foxboro, but just 1-6 in the games that were played in either November or December. In those 7 games he was 158-292, 54% comp, 1791 yards, 3 TDs, 11 INTs.
So, pretty bad.
It's regular season only so you're at 4 but yea, putting some thought into it, i'm sure i could think of many of them but just at first thought i still would have been close to 5
Blown out in Miami several times. Nearly all their losses there by multiple scores.
The 2009 game against the Saints comes to mind.
2005 home vs San Diego was a blowout loss
I looked into games @ Miami- only 2 times by 15 or more - 2001 and 2006
2 others by 13
1 by 10 (final game of 2016 season)
Other notable games:
Cleveland debacle in 2020 when Peyton Hillis went crazy
2014 @ KC - "We're on to Cincinatti"
2009 - New Orleans, 2 weeks after 4th and 2. The game that BB's Football life caught coach lamenting to Brady about not being able to reach the team
Notably, they've only lost by 15 + twice in a season 2 other times, 2002, and 2005 (aside from this year)
Going back to 2009, when he came back from the injury. they've had 4 such losses prior to this year so my recency bias was in full effect
Thanks. 5 double digit losses in Miami is pretty crazy when you compare it to all of the other success they've had.
Since someone brought up the weather, I did some very quick research on game temperature for regular season plus playoffs (source is here: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tgl_finder.cgi):
Brady when game time temperature is 32 or below: 32-7 (0.820)
Home when 32 or below: 24 - 4 (0.857)
Away when 32 or below: 8 - 3 (0.727)
Losses include the first round 33-14 spanking by the Ravens in 2010, a costly loss to the Colts in 2006 in Foxboro (costly as it forced NWE to travel to Indy for the AFCCG that year), the playoff loss to the Yets, the costly OT loss in Denver in 2015, the loss to Green Bay in 2014, another loss in Denver in 2009, and the Flutie drop kick game home against the Dolphins in January of 2006 where Brady threw 8 passes before giving way to Matt Cassel.
Brady when game time temperature is 80 degrees or higher: 16 - 9 (0.640)
Home: 4 - 0 (1.000)
Road: 12 - 9 (0.571)
in Miami: 6 - 5 (0.545)
everywhere else: 6 - 4 (0.600)
The non-Miami losses include at KC in 2014; the 2010 Jets game in NY where Moss made that one-handed TD catch over Revis; Carolina in 2005; and this season's loss to the Jags.
FWIW, Brady is 0-2 when the temp hits 90 or above: that Carolina loss, and this season's loss to the Jags. Both were on the road.
30-10 at Miami, 2001
28-10 vs. GB, 2002
24-7 at Tenn, 2002
31-0 at Buff, 2003
41-17 vs. SD, 2005
40-21 vs. Ind, 2005
21-0 at Miami, 2006
38-17 at NO, 2009
34-14 at Cle, 2010
41-14 at KC, 2014
42-27 vs. KC, 2017
26-10 at Det, 2018
34-10 at Ten, 2018
33-14 vs. Bal, 2010
28-13 vs. Bal, 2013
So, I get 13 regular season, 2 postseason
You guys are going to make me breakout the stats translation I did that takes Brady's stats and extrapolates them into playing as many dome games as Peyton Manning did, and vice versa.
It's ridiculous. Brady has a better dome passer rating than Manning. Granted it's only 14 games, but his rating is 109.
Dunno if it's still true, but at one point Brady had a better rating in a dome and a better rating outside, but Manning had a better rating overall. Fun with stats.
"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" - Samuel Clemens
Well the attribution is often disputed and there were likely authors before Clemens, he merely popularized it - Sumner
That was true and for those wondering how it’s possible (this is not for you SumnerH, who I know knows this), it’s because Manning played so many more dome games than Brady that it tilted his overall stats.
Not that these were the numbers but imagine a scenario like this:
- Dome (80 games): 99.0
- Outdoors (20 games): 90.0
- Total (100 games): 97.2
- Dome (10 games): 102.0
- Outdoors (90 games): 93.0
- Total (100 games): 93.9
So Manning looks better and yet no matter where they play, Brady is better. Fun with numbers indeed.
Wait, did you just list Tony Eason as a "great" quarterback?
Anyway, Favre is a really interesting case. Again, without going through and trying to figure things out on a game by game basis, the only real breakdown you can find on him that makes sense is his monthly numbers. What makes Favre interesting is that his worst month, in terms of completion % and passer rating, is December. He has a career 61.95 completion % and an 86.0 passer rating. In December, they drop to 60.87 and 82.2.
The thing that makes it interesting is that his best winning percentage is in December. He was 52-25 in December (51-31 in November, 37-31 in October and 43-26 in September). I take from that he was worse when the weather got bad, but his opponents played even worse than he did. Like I said, not easy to play in the crap.
As for the other guys, I'm talking about actual all time greats, not just guys who played in cold weather and were above .500, which is about the best you can say for most of them, but just taking a peek at a couple of those:
Jim Kelly was terrible in December. He went 18-18 in December (he was 82-41 in Sept-Nov). His completion % dropped from 60.14 to 58.00 and his QB rating went from 84.4 to 80.3.
Tarkenton was 22-22-1 in December (he was basically a .500 QB in every month except October when he was 44-34), and his completion % dropped from 57.00 to 53.99 and his rating went from 80.4 to 78.2.
I think I'm going to get sick looking at any more stats of QB's with ratings in the low 80's. People around here were poo pooing Brady's effort on Sunday when he had a 115.2 rating. LOL
Edit: Just looked at Elway, and his worst month, as you can guess, is also, December. He went 30-25 in his career in December, and 119-58 from August-Nov. His completion % in December drops from a career of 56.87 to 55.88 and his passer rating drops from 79.9 to a woeful 73.5 in December.
Like I said, I've actually done this for almost every QB I can think of over the years, and the only two guys who really stand out as playing well (or as well as they usually do) in cold weather are Brady and Rodgers. Favre comes close, but his opponents seemed to get less worse than he got, so he won a lot of games in bad weather late in the season.
Even more amazing is that in addition to the 109% of his wins where he’s won by more than a touchdown, there’s some percentage where he won by less than a touchdown.
(Actually I read your post wrong, quickly. The comment is still amusing though so I’ll leave it.)
Okay, so here it is, if Brady and Manning had played the dome vs. outdoor games the other had (assuming everything else equal):
Brady (actual): 64.0% completions, 69190 yards, 507/167 TD/INT, 97.5 rating
Manning (actual): 65.3% completions, 71940 yards, 539/251 TD/INT, 96.5 rating
Brady (flipped): 65.6% completions, 70253 yards, 527/183 TD/INT, 101.3 rating
Manning (flipped): 64.7% completions, 71785 yards, 525/264 TD/INT, 94.4 rating
What it basically boils down to is Manning throws 67% more interceptions outdoors than Brady does--Brady .6/game, Manning 1.0.
My favourite example of Simpson’s Paradox
Brady has actually passed Manning in rating the last few seasons.
I think one of the "advantages" other fans give to the Patriots is playing in the East with poor competition. One avenue that is never discussed is that because of the Patriots long term unparalleled success it creates less stability in the other members of the division. Typically the other owners don't give GM's or Coaches long enough to actually turn the tide, they want wins now and when they don't come they are gone which leads to constant rebuilds. The division is weaker due to the Patriots success and other owners poor hiring and frustration with the patriots success. We have created a divisional ecosystem that doesn't exist in most if not all other divisions.
People do say this, but it has been shown to not really be a thing though--Pats winning percentage outside the East is pretty similar to inside. They whup pretty much everyone.
Unlike Manning vs the Iron of the AFC South.
The bell can never be unrung. The constant attempts to minimize the Pats' historic run with stupid, inaccurate comments like "LOL the AFC East sucks" has colored the discussion around the team forever. People are notoriously impervious to facts in situations like these.
Including local media!
I can think of something more pathetic...
Isnt the fact that the Pats whoop up on other AFC east opponents supposed to Help them?
Its the Draft in Micro.
2 Losses is worth X amount in Draft position. So Buffalo for example *should get better talent year over year that they get beat by the Pats.
The fact they dont isnt on the Pats. And it may be a symptom of the point @Valek123 noted. Losses cause panic, Panic causes bad decision from coaches to management to Draft picks.
I wonder if the AFC East (minus the Pats) swing and miss more on draft picks then average.
Not only that, but haven't the non-Pats AFC East teams held their own the other divisions, relatively speaking.
Barnwell wrote a column about the best / worst seasons in franchise history for all teams, mainly based on point differential per game. The last sentence basically summarizes this year and this run.
Current season: 8-3 (23rd best of 59 seasons in franchise history since 1960)
Best season: 2007 (16-0)
Worst season: 1990 (1-15)
The Buccaneers are an example of a team with a brutal history where another bad season just manages to fall somewhere in the middle. The Patriots are in the opposite boat; after nearly two decades of dominance under Tom Brady, this is just another ho-hum great season. (To contrast, if the Brady era hadn't existed before 2018, the Pats would be on pace for the eighth-best point differential in franchise history.) The 2007 Patriots rank as the best team since 1960 by this metric, outscoring opponents by 19.7 points per game. By contrast, this year's Patriots are beating teams by 5.3 points per contest and have the point differential, essentially, of a 7-4 team. What's ordinary for the Patriots would be a parade for most organizations.
This is a good thread:
This stood out to me:
"The patriots have won 523 games (including playoffs) since their inception in 1960. Tom Brady has won 231 games. Which is 44% of their wins in their 58 year history."
This is an excellent point, and one that seems to get overlooked or ignored in NFL media in general. Probably deliberately ignored, since the NFL likely isn’t too interested in people holding owners accountable for team dysfunction instead of players and coaches.
It’s not just an NFL consideration, either. Nick Saban arguably has the same effect on the SEC in NCAA football as well.
That is stunning. I remember when the AFL was formed in 1959 and started playing games in 1960. 44%. Lord. I don't have time to look now, but how close is that, or maybe greater than some franchises' overall win total.
It’s more wins than any of the four teams founded after 1980 (JAX, CAR, BAL, HOU).
Or the browns if you don’t like the ravens one.
This despite the fact that the Patriots never have to play the AFC East division winners.
"Tom Brady's threw his 508th regular-season TD pass in the third quarter, tying him with Brett Favre for third most all-time. When including playoffs, it's 579 TDs for Brady, which ties him with Peyton Manning for most of all time."
9-3 after today's win vs Minnesota. I am so, so lucky to have been a fan for all of BB & TB12's incredible run.
My not guaranteed back of the napkin math has them at 45-22 vs division winners (regular season and playoffs) in years they themselves won the AFC East. They have beaten three division leaders this year.
They are just usually better.
Are we allowed to spike the football on the guys who have rushed to say this team will be sub-.500 after two games the last two years? Because I fucking hate those guys.
Someday they will be right. Just like someday Prince Charles will be King or something.
He might abdicate...
I really enjoyed this bit from today's press conference, which started out with a question about Devin McCourty and kind of expanded into a discussion of leadership...
"...look, you’re lucky to have one guy like that, and we’ve had a lot of them around here. But, it’s a great recognition for him.
Q: It seems like Devin has done a good job of keeping things light in the locker room. Is that an important quality to have in a captain as kind of a tone-setter on the team?
BB: Yeah, I think that’s part of leadership, part of that job. Yeah, absolutely, whether it’s in the locker room, in the weight room. You know, there’s moments to be light, and there’s moments not to be light, and those guys always seem to do a good job of picking the right ones and timing and their relationship with all the players, not just the guys in their group, but the other guys on their side of the ball, the other guys on the other side of the ball – not just, I’d say, the players in their age group, but also younger players or call it players more in the middle of their career. They’ve lived through those different times and can relate to those guys and do a good job of it. Look, a lot of those conversations take place in the training room, they take place on the team plane, they take place in the weight room, might take place on the practice field in between periods or something like that. There’s no real formula or price tag you can put on those, but cumulatively, they all add up and they all count and they all mean a lot. That’s how teams are built. But, certainly players like that, like Devin, are important to either hold things together or bring things together, however you want to look at it."
The army-navy game bit was fantastic too.
I'm willing to bet if you got him in a mood for it, he could rattle off the final score and key aspects of every single game since 1959.
Yep, players, plays, schemes...probably going back to before he was a teenager!
This is the first time since 2009 that the Patriots will win fewer than 12 regular season games. That's a full 9 straight seasons of 12+ wins.
Let that sink in for a moment and acknowledge the historical greatness of this franchise, even as others are piling dirt on the grave (prematurely, IMO).
Came across this stat in an article about Payton/Brees - http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...s-saints-now-no-2-wins-coach-quarterback-duos
Pretty awesome... 88 more wins then #2 on the list!