Celebrating 1st Annual Malcolm T. Butler Day

[SeoulSoxFan]

It was exactly 1 year ago today that Malcolm Terel Butler, the unheraled CB for the NE Patriots, made one of the greatest plays in SB history.

Let us relive the glory:



Edit: Also, here's the archived game thread starting with the "miracle" Kearse catch:

http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/super-bowl-xlix-patriots-vs-seahawks.7650/page-94

 

[TheoShmeo]

Thanks for that. A nice escape from the present reality.

That was biggest turnaround in emotions and expectations in one play that I have ever experienced and I assume will ever experience. From certain defeat to certain victory.

Somewhat lost in all the debate about Carroll was how great a play that Malcom made. Everything he did had to be perfect, and it was. And here's to Brandon Browner, who refused to let him get picked.

"Maclcom, Go!"

 

[Saints Rest]

Butler's catch was Millar's walk, Roberts' steal, Mueller's single, Papi's (multiple heroics) all wrapped into a single play.

As all of those plays do, Butler's interception has the wonderful ability to bring a smile even thru future heartbreaks.

One of my favorite parts of the play's aftermath was Malcolm's teary stumble off the field, helped by his teammates. Someone mentioned the similarity to James Brown's (the singer not the talking head) being led off the stage. The difference here is that, with Malcolm, I'm 100% sure the emotions were all genuine.

 

[Stevie1der]

One of the most exciting things about the Malcolm Butler story is it's still being written. He could have easily faded away as a one hit wonder or rested on his laurels, instead he kept working on his craft and getting better, and I think it's safe to say he surpassed all of our wildest expectations with his performance this year. Keep on going, Malcolm!

 

[Rico Guapo]

Arguably the greatest single play in Boston sports history, thank you Malcolm T. Butler.

 

[pappymojo]

I love this back and forth from the comments section of the AV Club.

http://www.avclub.com/article/self-serving-disgrace-nfl-playoffs-230793

Spoiler

Bruiser Brody Whovian • 17 days ago

I never count out Brady et al, but their offense is much more depleted from last season and, by all accounts, they really probably should have lost to Seattle (and probably Baltimore, too).

man-in-the-moon-man Bruiser Brody • 17 days ago

I don't know if they "Should have lost" to Seattle. People get so fixated on the interception that ended the game that they forget that the Seahawks were that close to the goal line because of a fluke catch (Butler swatted the ball and it somehow came down in the hands of the intended receiver who was lying on the turf at the time).

Bruiser Brody man-in-the-moon-man • 17 days ago

That's true, but it did happen. I was actually rooting for the Pats for the first time in about 15 years because of my deep loathing for the Seahawks, so I was amused by everything that happened. But you can always say that 'if this hadn't happened, then things would've been different.' If Rahim Moore plays passable defense, Baltimore doesn't throw a long pass for a touchdown and go on to beat the Broncos in the playoffs a couple of years ago.

J.P. McPickleshitter Bruiser Brody • 16 days ago

But you can always say that 'if this hadn't happened, then things would've been different.'

You can't play the "but it did happen" card when you're arguing that the team that lost fair-and-square should have won.

Bruiser Brody J.P. McPickleshitter • 16 days ago

A team was one yard away from scoring a touchdown against a back-pedaling defense. By all accounts, they should have scored and won, if Carroll hadn't called an idiotic play, and Butler hadn't made a heads-up play. I'm saying 'should', not 'did'. Is there much thought that anything beyond that stupid pass wouldn't have led to a score?

Whovian man-in-the-moon-man • 17 days ago

And freaking Harmon jumps over the guy instead of A) swatting the ball away or B) falling on the guy so he wouldn't catch it.

 

[johnmd20]

Simmons said it in his podcast and I agree that it hurts the Pats aren't back in the SB this year because they were so close(unlike two years ago, when they were never in the Denver game) but seeing this video made me smile.

 

[DegenerateSoxFan]

One of the most exciting things about the Malcolm Butler story is it's still being written. He could have easily faded away as a one hit wonder or rested on his laurels, instead he kept working on his craft and getting better, and I think it's safe to say he surpassed all of our wildest expectations with his performance this year. Keep on going, Malcolm!

This can't be emphasized enough. The Pro Bowl selection was well-earned (though thankfully, he and every other Patriot selected are bailing on the silly game itself). How many times this year did we groan, seeing an opposing receiver with the ball in his hands, then go YEEAHHH! as Malcolm got his hand in there and knocked it out?

 

[tims4wins]

This can't be emphasized enough. The Pro Bowl selection was well-earned (though thankfully, he and every other Patriot selected are bailing on the silly game itself). How many times this year did we groan, seeing an opposing receiver with the ball in his hands, then go YEEAHHH! as Malcolm got his hand in there and knocked it out?

I honestly think Butler gave the Pats the best CB performance since Ty Law back in 97 or 98 - the year he had like 9 picks and made the Pro Bowl for the first time

 

[ernieshore]

I still shake my head and can't believe I was there -- and, of course, how it turned out. At some point between Kearse's catch and Malcolm Go, I can clearly remember saying to myself, "OK - this is going to suck, but it's still been a pretty good trip and you got to see your team in the Super Bowl..."

Then I: screamed and jumped up and down like Brady; almost had a heart attack when I saw the flags in the air (immediately thinking of DPI); hugged the 49ers fan next to me who assured me the flags were just for celebration; roared when the ref exclaimed, "The interception is confirmed!..."; and then finally knew victory was certain on the false start.

Such an awesome experience, and very lucky to follow this team.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Arguably the greatest single play in Boston sports history, thank you Malcolm T. Butler.

Well, yeah: http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/final-vote-for-the-greatest-sports-play-in-new-england-sports-history.8069/#post-1121508

http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/time-to-vote-for-the-greatest-sports-play-in-new-england-sports-history.8012/#post-1118719

http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/nominations-for-greatest-sports-play-in-new-england-sports-history.7907/

http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/malcolm-butler-vs-dave-roberts.7833/page-3#post-1108423

 

[dynomite]

Agreed. The bigger question is whether it is the greatest single play in the history of American sports.

Didn't someone post a chart with the biggest single-play shifts in a team's odds to win a Super Bowl?

Grantland put together a list that said the biggest single-play shift in the World Series was that 1960 Yanks/Pirates Game 7, but interestingly was actually the 3-run HR in the bottom of the 8th inning to put the Pirates up 9-7, not Mazeroski's walk-off.

Edit: here's the Grantland article: http://grantland.com/features/mlb-win-percentage-added-world-series-championship-kirk-gibson-bobby-thomson-david-freese-mariano-rivera-yogi-berra/

 

[brandonchristensen]

The thing that sticks out to me is that the server held up through the Kearse catch.

Now there would be two or three "FUCK" posts, followed by "Can't believe we held on. Who is this Butler kid?!"

 

[ernieshore]

Oh wow---an angle I hadn't seen before. Love the Gatorade guy doing his job.

 

[The Price Is Wrong]

Edit: here's the Grantland article: http://grantland.com/features/mlb-win-percentage-added-world-series-championship-kirk-gibson-bobby-thomson-david-freese-mariano-rivera-yogi-berra/

Great pull. The equivalent list for the NFL would doubtless have Butler's play at #1, and frankly I have no idea what #2 would be (the last play of the Rams-Titans SB?), I just know Vinatieri would have some entries on the list.

One hidden gem from that article is the last footnote about an incident - an opportunity for 9th-inning-of-Game-7 drama that never was - that I'd never heard of and I bet few baseball fans have. Jazayerli relates how one Bob Meusel would have had the opportunity to win the 1926 World Series for the Yankees, batting in Game 7 down 1 with 2 outs in the 9th and Babe Ruth on 1st. But Babe Ruth attempted to steal 2nd off Grover Cleveland Alexander, and was thrown out by the catcher, ending the Series and handing the Cardinals the victory.

Now there's an event for MFY-haters to savor, rivaling even the finale of the 2001 WS. Good lord.

 

[BuellMiller]

I'm guessing Scott Norwood would be high up on the NFL list. Since that completely swung the game (The Dyson play would have only tied it, and the Patriots would have had some time and a few timeouts to try to tie the game on a FG if the Seahawks had scored, and the game would have gone to OT if Vinitieri missed his kicks)

 

[RG33]

EDIT: I'm yelling "DEEEE-FENSE!" and the guy in the Gronk shirt at end (after my idiot non-patriot fan buddy removes his fingers from the camera). My other buddy is leaning over apologizing to the two 60-year old Seahawks fans who he just inadvertently dumped his beer all over.

 

[The Price Is Wrong]

Oh, duh. Yeah, Norwood's miss was -61% WPA, while Butler's was +58.7%, so it's actually higher.

The Dyson play (snuffing out the last 14.2% WPA) wasn't even the most significant play of that game, which was the Kurt Warner 73-yd bomb to Isaac Bruce with 2:12 to play (+20.9%, plus another 10.3% for the PAT).

Other contenders:

• NE-CAR in Feb 2004 had the 85yd Delhomme bomb to Muhsin Muhammad that jumped them from being down 21-16 to up 22-16 with 7'06" in the 4Q; it took them from 6.2% to 51.5%, a +45.3% bump.
• A few minutes later, Delhomme tied the game at 29 with 1:13 remaining, for a +49.0% WPA boost. By comparison, NE's gains in WPA came slowly and methodically.
• Kurt Warner's TD vs PIT in Feb 2009, for 64 yards to Larry Fitzgerald with 2:47 remaining, turning a 16-20 deficit into a 23-20 lead, was worth +30.3% on its own and another +24.1% after the PAT.
• John Elway's 8-yard run on 3rd and 6 from the GB 12 at the end of the 3Q was +14.2% on its own. But it was DEN's final drive that had the highest WPA plays of SB 32, with the 23yd pass to the GB 8 being +22.7% and the 17yd Terrell Davis run to the 1y on the next play being +21.5%.
• Eli Manning's TD to Plaxico with 0:39 left in The Game That Shall Not Be Named was worth +61.9%. I'll be damned, that's the highest so far.

...man, now I'm too depressed to keep looking this stuff up.

 

[djbayko]

EDIT: I'm yelling "DEEEE-FENSE!" and the guy in the Gronk shirt at end (after my idiot non-patriot fan buddy removes his fingers from the camera). My other buddy is leaning over apologizing to the two 60-year old Seahawks fans who he just inadvertently dumped his beer all over.

"This video is private."

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

2/1/15. Never forget. Thank you for this thread.

 

[Marciano490]

Oh wow---an angle I hadn't seen before. Love the Gatorade guy doing his job.

Poor Jimmy.

 

[loshjott]

Oh wow---an angle I hadn't seen before. Love the Gatorade guy doing his job.

There are so many great things about that video, but my favorite is Solder calmly strapping on his chin strap and heading back onto the field amid the sideline craziness.

 

[edmunddantes]

Jimmy even tries to go after Solder as someone to celebrate with, slaps Solder on the helmet, and he just keeps walking to his next assignment.

 

[MillarTime]

Oh wow---an angle I hadn't seen before. Love the Gatorade guy doing his job.

Highly underrated: Gronk skipping through the mayhem

 

[Soxy]

This is fantastic: An oral history of the ‘unreal’ ending to the final drive of Super Bowl XLIX

Some really good stuff in there. Probably my favorite were these two comments on why Belichick didn't call a TO after the first down run by Lynch:

Collinsworth: Why didn’t Belichick take the timeout? I don’t think Belichick wanted to take a timeout to give them the opportunity to sub back in with their jumbo package and run Lynch again. I think whatever chance he thought he had in that moment was them throwing the ball. You could write a book on the last 40 seconds of that Super Bowl. What was he really thinking? I’ve heard all kinds of rumors about the argument and debate going on between [coach] Pete Carroll, [offensive coordinator] Darrell Bevell and [offensive line coach] Tom Cable. Is that true? I don’t know.

Wilfork: We didn’t want to call a timeout because we thought they were fidgety and really didn’t understand what was going on, so we wanted to let it play out, let them make the correction. Let them adjust to us. Looking at their film, when they get down there they do certain things, they don’t really have an open playbook. That’s why we let it play. They didn’t have a lot of options down there, and we were O.K. with that.

Also love that they had the guy from the Vegas sports book who lost a ton of money thanks to Malcolm Butler. Apparently all of the money was coming in on the Pats and the books held firm on Seattle. Vegas lost $115 mil.

 

[GeorgeCostanza]

Poor Jimmy.

Really one of the sadder solitary moments of celebration I've ever seen.

 

[mt8thsw9th]

Oh, duh. Yeah, Norwood's miss was -61% WPA, while Butler's was +58.7%, so it's actually higher

I still don't understand this. Norwood had a much higher likelihood of missing a 47 yard field goal than the Patriots did getting into field goal range (or scoring a touchdown) with 20 seconds left on the clock. How do they calculate that 63% odds? Norwood didn't have much of a leg, and was pretty bad on 40+ yard attempts on grass.

Add to that Butler's play was a lot less binary than simply making or missing a field goal. Perfectly jumping a route AND holding onto the pick was a All-Pro level play to begin with. On no planet was the Norwood miss more unlikely an event than a pick at the goal line.

 

[JokersWildJIMED]

Those WPA's make no sense...the Butler play turned essentially sure victory for one team into sure victory for another team. By no means were the Patriots assured victory when Plaxico scored his TD, surely not nearly in the same way that Seattle was assured victory with a 2nd and goal at the 1/2 yard line with plenty of time to run three plays and Lynch.

 

[Hendu for Kutch]

I'd guess it's the probability of NE being able to stop Seattle 3 times + the probability of NE driving for a FG (or better) if they didn't stop Seattle. If you also factor in the danger of a safety from the 1 yard line and potential Seattle FG after regaining possession, that could explain why the +58.7% number seems so low.

I'm also curious if the time that elapsed before the INT is reflected in the percentages or not. If you're figuring one set of percentages at 1:06 left in the game and the other at :26 left, it could skew those numbers. There's a lot better chance of Brady marching back down the field with 1:06 left than there would have been if the pass was a TD with :26 left.

Edit:

Upon further review, I see that the percentage changed from 41.2 to 99.9, so the safety concern is not really relevant. But I think people are overselling the automaticness of a TD in that situation. Remember, Lynch was 1 for 5 that season trying to score from the 1 yard line and the NFL average was below 60%. They also didn't have time to run 3 more times. If they didn't pass on 2nd down then they had to on 3rd down. So really Lynch would only have two cracks at running it in. Far from a certainty.

 

[The Price Is Wrong]

Yeah, I think the Pats' odds of winning were way lower than 41.2% at that exact moment, but I also don't think they were, say, under 10% or anything. Goal-line stands are rare but not unheard-of.

I'm with you, Eightsworth, those numbers don't make much sense to me. Maybe the model assumes Norwood was a league-average kicker by 2015 standards, rather than the 69% kicker (with 2 missed PATs) that he was in 1990.

 

[BuellMiller]

Wait, Buffalo's odds were about 60% when Norwood lined up for the kick (61.1% from p-f-r if i'm reading it right). That seems right, since he was about a 60% kicker from 40-49 that year and for much of his career (60.6%), and it essentially was a binary choice at that point (yes, there's always the small chance that the Giants would jump offsides or rough the kicker or block it and pull a Leon Lett (granted, very small chance, and probably roughly equivalent to the Bills committing a penalty of their own pushing the kick back).
What I found interesting, is that p-f-r also uses the lines of the games in their odds as well, while b-r seems to start each game at 50-50. Ty Law's pick-six in SB36 only bumped the Patriots up to a 32% chance of winning (even though they were up by 4 after the PAT)...the game started with them giving the Patriots about 1-in-8 odds to win. I wonder if this contributed to the Plaxico TD being such a high jump, since the Giants certainly started with a big hole to make up according to the odds. (too depressing for me to check anything further about that game ever, though)