According to
this article, annual P5 conference revenues look like this:
Big 10: $759 million
SEC: $627 million
Pac 12: $497 million
ACC: $465 million
Big 12: $374 million
The B12 pie is split fewer ways, so member schools aren’t doing much worse than Pac-12 or ACC schools, but the SEC and B1G are pulling away from the others. Throw another $250 million on that SEC figure (from the increased TV rights fees) and you’re looking at a difference in the neighborhood of $30-40 million per member school compared to the Big 12.
If the SEC comes calling in five years, will state legislators in Oklahoma and Texas let OU and UT walk away from that kind of money? I don’t see a similar threat to the Pac-12 or the ACC.
Something to consider though is a lot of those state legislators went to other schools in those states and won't want their alma maters left out in the cold. I don't see OU getting to leave for the SEC and OSU dying on the vine. Remember when the ACC initially expanded in 2003, VT was not included until the VA state government started twisting arms at UVA to get the Hokies in the fold. I'd imagine the same could be said for the state of Texas with TT, TCU, and Baylor all wanting a seat at the table as well. Plus would A&M ever go for it? It seems like those two schools could never be in the same conference again because of their toxic relationship.
When is a conference just too big? The SEC is already very weird schedule wise, heck UGA and A&M played for the first time just this year and the Aggies have been in the conference since 2012. UGA won't go to College Station until 2024. They played at LSU last year and won't back to Baton Rouge until 2025. That seems more like an out of conference series than a conference game.
Finally, besides the money, which I think we can all agree has been very good for the major college conferences. Has expansion really helped many of these teams on the actual playing field? Since conference realignment began in mass in 2003, 12 teams have moved from major conference to major conference (leaving out TCU, Louisville, and Utah since they began the process in mid majors and expansion has got them Power 5 level). The first set of numbers is how the teams have performed since they joined their respective leagues and the second set is their winning percentage for the last ten years in their previous league.
ACC
Boston College 104-87 (.544) Had a .550 winning percentage from 1995-2004.
Miami 113-81 (.582) Had a .785 winning percentage from 1994-2003.
Pitt 48-42 (.533). Had a .568 winning percentage from 2003-2012
Syracuse 37-51 (.420). Had a .388 winning percentage from 2003-2012
Virginia Tech 146-66 (.688). Had a winning percentage of .747 from 1994-2003
Big 10
Rutgers 21-52 (.287). Had a .595 from 2004-2013
Maryland 28-46 (.378). Had a .463 winning percentage from 2004-2012
Nebraska 65-50 (.565). Had a .646 winning percentage from 2001-2010
Big 12
WVU 56-45 (.554). Had a .742 winning percentage from 2002-2011
Pac 12
Colorado 39-73 (.348). Had a .476 winning percentage from 2001-2010
SEC
Missouri 58-44 (.547). Had a .632 winning percentage from 2002-2011
Texas A&M 67-38 (.638). Had .516 winning percentage from 2002-2011.
Most teams are around were they were previously, some are better and some are worse. Personally I miss the leagues the way they were previously. So many rivalries have gone by the way side (OU/Nebraska, Texas/A&M, WVU/Pitt, Kansas/Missouri, etc). Plus the cultural and geographic fit for some of these are just weird. Maryland and Rutgers in a midwestern conference, WVU in a southwestern conference, Nebraska has never seems to fit in with the B10 either. This post was focused on football, but expansion has also watered down college basketball. No more Maryland/Duke or Maryland/UNC. The old Big East is no longer and rivalries like Georgetown/Syracuse are gone. The chase for the almighty dollar has really changed the college sports landscape and I wonder how much further this will go when the next round of media contracts and grants of rights come up in 2023. I guess we shall see.