Dismiss Notice
Guest, I have a big favor to ask you. We've been working very hard to establish ourselves on social media. If you like/follow our pages it would be a HUGE help to us. SoSH on Facebook and Inside the Pylon Thanks! Nip

Building a Bullpen, 2019 edition

Discussion in 'Red Sox Forum' started by Danny_Darwin, Oct 30, 2018.

  1. Plympton91

    Plympton91 bubble burster SoSH Member

    Messages:
    11,492
    I’m trying to talk myself into Madson. I’m on a phone, so didn’t do the addition or the table, but if you look at 3 year averages, he is significantly better when he is not used on back to back days. Most of the “better” is in 2016-2017 though. Last year, he was pretty bad across the board, though these are all really small sample sizes for any one year.

    So, it seems like bringing him in and making sure to limit back to back days might be something their analytics team could have mined for a cheap potential upgrade.
     
  2. Rough Carrigan

    Rough Carrigan reasons within Reason Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    18,767
    Brad Brach has pitched well in the postseason.
    He's 38 now and he'll be 39 in August. No thanks. I'd rather have Brach.
     
  3. bosockboy

    bosockboy Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    9,910
    Brach’s velocity was down, they both have their faults but I might lean towards Madson’s velocity. I’d rather have Kelley then either.

    Considering how many pitchers who signed late last year performed terribly, I’m guessing we do have a run of signings in the next 10 days.
     
  4. KillerBs

    KillerBs lurker

    Messages:
    812
    So to review, if I have it right, our bullpen depth chart looks like this now

    Barnes
    Brasier
    Wright
    Thornburg
    Hembree
    Workman
    Velazquez

    BJohnson -- LHP
    Poyner -- LHP

    Brewer
    E. Ramirez
    Lakins
    C. Smith?
    Shawaryn
    Shepherd
    Feltman
    etc.

    With no adds and assuming a 7 man pen and at least one lefty (Johnson), this means one of Wright, Thornburg, Hembree, Workman or Velazquez are off the opening day roster. All these guys are valuable pitchers. Underrated aspect of our success last year was the depth of back end of pen, eg Johnson and Velazquez. The question of who has options would seem to loom fairly large. Maybe this discussed above, but I did not see it.

    Hence, in effect, a Madson or Brach pick up really is as a substitute for one of these 5 RHPs, likely Velazquez?. Just not sold that is much of an upgrade, especially as Velazquez (with Wright and Johnson) give the pen a lot of innings hopefully facilitating protection of starters.

    Obviously assessment of whether Thornburg and Workman are likely to be able to handle some 7th and 8th inning duties well enough is key here. Workman's sterling 2018 AAA numbers give me (perhaps unreasonable) cause for optimism.

    If the Sox do decide to pick up someone, I wonder if free agent Nick Vincent is an option. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vinceni01.shtml
     
  5. KillerBs

    KillerBs lurker

    Messages:
    812
    Based on soxprospects, of the top 9, it looks like only Barnes, Brasier, Velazquez and Poyner have any options left.
     
  6. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    9,288
    They could always sign both depending on what they sign for. Is their market 1/5 or 1/1.5 like Pomeranz?
     
  7. nattysez

    nattysez Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,298
    #707 nattysez, Jan 24, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2019
  8. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    9,288
    I don't think that will be much of an issue. I'm fairly certain Velazquez will be in AAA starting games for Pawtucket the majority of 2019. He's an emergency starter if things go very wrong. I don't think he's much of an asset and the definition of replaceable. He does have options though, so he's worth keeping around. As much as I like Poyner, I don't think he has much of a shot to make the team out of ST either. He'll be one of the first bullpen arms called up in case of injury.

    It's also possible a few of these guys will come down with a case of the hellenic flu in ST and start the year in the minors on rehab assignments, that one or two of them have real injuries and aren't ready on opening day, one or two gets traded, or one or two get cut prior to opening day for total ineffectiveness. I wouldn't worry too much about it, especially since/if none of them are getting paid significant money and can be cut if they are ineffective.
     
  9. Green Monster

    Green Monster Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    1,899
  10. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

    Messages:
    1,309
    I think this is part of the holdup. Since signing a guy like Madson/Kelley/Sipp would require cutting one of Hembree, Workman, Johnson, Wright or Thornburg anyway it’s probably worth exploring if another team will give up someone under contract DD likes more (or has options) for one of those.
     
  11. Smiling Joe Hesketh

    Smiling Joe Hesketh All Hail King Boron Dope

    Messages:
    30,212
  12. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    10,121
    The same could have been said about both guys at this time last year, yet Velazquez never burned an option (his brief trip to Pawtucket was on a rehab assignment) and Poyner made the Opening Day roster.

    I don't point that out so much to argue with your assessment (I think in an ideal world, you're right) as to illustrate the volatility of projecting the roster and the usage of most of the relievers in the organization at this point. Any one of the relievers could step up big or fall on their face, and there's not a way to know which ones will be which.
     
  13. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    9,288

    I should have said if everyone is in good health (which is never the case), there's like a 1-5% chance that Velazquez and/or Poyner are on the team opening day. It's very possible one or both are on the opening day roster due to injury but that would just push back any decision making on who to cut or release. There wouldn't be a roster crunch until everyone returned healthy and by that time, the Sox will have probably gotten an extra month or two to evaluate their current crop of relievers.

    9 MRs aint that many. The Sox used around 20 last year.
     
  14. sackamano

    sackamano Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    650
    Not with that signing.
     
  15. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

    Messages:
    17,893
    Boy, that Theo Epstein sure is an idiot. Glad he never worked for us.
     
  16. j44thor

    j44thor Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    8,661
    That Braiser BABIP sticks out and not in a good way. He is due for some regression next year.
    I wouldn't hate Sergio Romo on a 1yr deal. He seems to be smoke and mirrors stuff wise but somehow gets the job done. At least he isn't likely to completely melt down on you.
     
  17. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    9,288
    Brasier's FIP was 2.83. Not as great as a 1.60 era but still really good. His xFIP was 3.78 which is just another guy.
     
  18. Pozo the Clown

    Pozo the Clown lurker

    Messages:
    649
    And he can play 3rd base!

     
  19. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

    Messages:
    17,893
    And his xwOBA allowed, according to Statcast, was .253, second best on the team, just beating out Barnes' .264 and Kimbrel's .265. (His actual wOBA allowed was .209.) He wasn't as good as his actual results would suggest, but he was quite good.
     
  20. nvalvo

    nvalvo Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

    Messages:
    15,574
    Smoke and mirrors? Romo is like a version of Koji Uehara who is merely pretty good. Velocity has never been the point.

    He's never thrown hard, even when he was a closer for a World Series winning team. He's never had a month where he averaged more than 91 on the fastball; now he's more 88. He throws a slider with a huge lateral break, but with the seams backwards, so the rotation doesn't produce the "dot" from the seam rotation that helps hitters pick it up.

    Hitters guess against him. When they guess wrong, they're flailing, and when they guess right, they square him up. If you look at his career, his K/9 has been reliably between 9.5 and 11, and his walk rates have been pretty good, too. But his BABIPs and especially his HR rate bounce around, and with them, his success.

    That said, RHB had their first success against him in 2018, so maybe he's finally out of gas.
     
  21. sackamano

    sackamano Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    650
    He also signed Edwin Jackson to a 4-year big money deal. Are you suggesting he's incapable of making a mistake?

    No idea what it is you're trying to say with your post, but I'm assuming you're just trolling.
     
  22. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

    Messages:
    17,893
    Well, I thought dismissing Brach as "not an interesting arm" in this context, when he was pretty clearly the best guy left on the board, was trolling. So I was responding in kind.
     
  23. Pozo the Clown

    Pozo the Clown lurker

    Messages:
    649
    I'm curious why you'd label Brach (and his less-than-impressive" 1.60 WHIP in 2018) as "clearly the best guy left on the board?" Personally, I'd prefer the likes of Shawn Kelley and his impressive 0.90 WHIP. I realize WHIP isn't the be-all-end-all in evaluating a pitcher. My question is more directed to what you're seeing in Brach (other than adding another "Brachstar" to the roster) that I'm missing.
     
  24. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

    Messages:
    17,893
    Kelley's probably a better pitcher than Brach, in terms of pure talent, but he has serious durability issues (Google Shawn Kelley elbow), which have prevented him from ever pitching as many as 60 innings in a ML season, or as many as 50 the past two years. He's also an extreme flyball pitcher, which seems like a poor fit for Fenway.

    And yes, WHIP has its limits, and Kelley (career HR/9 1.38) is pretty much their poster child.
     
  25. sackamano

    sackamano Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    650
    Your quote in that sentence did not come from me.

    My guess is anytime someone disagrees with you, you consider it trolling ...

    Brach's dreadful numbers have been discussed here ad nauseam ... if you think he's the best left on the board and he has to be great because Theo Epstein signed him, then good for you. Others disagree with you.
     
  26. bosockboy

    bosockboy Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    9,910
  27. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

    Messages:
    17,893
    Not literally, no. But it was precisely the import of what you did say.

    Brach's numbers have been discussed here a lot, and I've seen nothing approaching a consensus that they are "dreadful." He had a poor WHIP last year, goosed by a completely out-of-career-context BABIP, which was in turn the product of a handful of bad appearances in midseason, after which he recovered nicely to pitch quite well for Atlanta down the stretch. His walk rate also was not great (though better than, for instance, Craig Kimbrel's). Having said that, you've pretty much exhausted his dreadfulness.

    He's not a great pitcher. None of the remaining relievers, other than Kimbrel, are. If he wasn't the best left, who was?
     
  28. Plympton91

    Plympton91 bubble burster SoSH Member

    Messages:
    11,492
    That’s really really really disappointing. Buckle up boys. There wont be a lot of early nights this season.
     
  29. j44thor

    j44thor Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    8,661
    Whatever that tweet was the account has been suspended so I'm guessing it is a nothingburger?
     
  30. j44thor

    j44thor Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    8,661
    If you are a one-pitch pitcher and that one pitch is effective because you don't give it away, doesn't that kind of nail the definition of "smoke and mirrors"?
     
  31. bosockboy

    bosockboy Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    9,910
    Pretty sure that is SoxScout’s account.
     
  32. Green Monster

    Green Monster Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    1,899
    Braves down playing likelihood of a Kimbrell reunion

    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/01/braves-rumors-craig-kimbrel-trade-market.html

    With options seemingly evaporating for Kimbrel, Perhaps DD just re-offers the 1/$17.9m qualifying offer and Kimbrel can try again next year.
     
  33. SouthernBoSox

    SouthernBoSox Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    10,687
    They aren't spending 18mm on the closer. He's said it half a dozen time now.
     
  34. DeadlySplitter

    DeadlySplitter Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    15,432
    Justin Wilson to Mets for 2/10. Forgot he was an option, moot point now.


     
  35. Pozo the Clown

    Pozo the Clown lurker

    Messages:
    649
    The Sox must really think that Thornburg and Wright will each be healthy and effective this year.

    From the article linked below:

    Thornburg was enthused by his most recent baseline of shoulder testing that took place in Boston recently.

    "It was my best test since coming over, even before surgery, with where my arm was coming over in the first year," Thornburg said. "It was a pretty good jump, especially from the last time we did it during the season. We didn't do it after I got shut down. In-season, we did it maybe a couple of times. It's a good bit better than that."

    https://www.mlb.com/news/tyler-thornburg-key-red-sox-bullpen-arm/c-303133764
     
  36. lexrageorge

    lexrageorge Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    6,954
    For one year, I think the Sox would take that deal. It's not the 2019 payroll that is the problem; it's long term commitments that DD and Henry are trying to avoid. Especially if you believe the Sox don't have a realistic chance to stay under the 2nd threshold anyway.
     
  37. bosockboy

    bosockboy Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    9,910
    Agreed. And it had to have been budgeted in case he accepted the QO.
     
  38. uncannymanny

    uncannymanny Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

    Messages:
    5,619
    Couldn’t his acceptance have prevented the Eovaldi signing in theory?
     
  39. TomBrunansky23

    TomBrunansky23 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    497
    You're right, they're spending $17 million on the closer...kidding (maybe).

    Thank goodness he didn't accept, Eovaldi is the more valuable and versatile option.

    Welcome to the Stephen Drew section of the restaurant, Craig, Have a seat.
     
  40. keninten

    keninten lurker

    Messages:
    510
    Seems to me the Sox best option is to trade a catcher for a RP. Swihart has 5 years of control left and cheap. I would think he could bring a decent RP off a team going nowhere.
     
  41. Plympton91

    Plympton91 bubble burster SoSH Member

    Messages:
    11,492
    Or even just a contending team that needs a catcher. The position is a wasteland.
     
  42. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    35,960
    Maybe DD cuts a master stroke deal and gets Kimbrel back for something like 1/$12 million after he sees his options are very limited. Seems like nobody is giving him a Chapman-level contract.
     
  43. Pozo the Clown

    Pozo the Clown lurker

    Messages:
    649
    In the event that Kimbrel were to agree to a one-year deal, I can't imagine that he'd sign for less than the Qualifying Offer amount that he turned down. I imagine 1/$18M is the lowest that we'd ever see him agree to. See: Grandal, Yasmani
     
  44. Papelbon's Poutine

    Papelbon's Poutine Homeland Security SoSH Member

    Messages:
    17,205
    So, if the best offer he got was 1/$15M, he’d just retire?
     
  45. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

    Messages:
    17,893
    But the Red Sox are kind of the poster team for that. Lots of teams have a suboptimal catching situation, but how many have a catching situation so bad that they would see Swihart as an upgrade worth giving up talent for?
     
  46. ponch73

    ponch73 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    669
    I bet Theo and company would give us somebody like Brian Duensing for Swihart. Which is exactly why we should hold on to Swihart.
     
  47. effectivelywild

    effectivelywild Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    204
    Unless the argument is that the Red Sox mind trust knows something about Swihart being absolute ass that the rest of the league doesn't know, there is no reason to advocate for shipping him off for a reliever. Unless some team has fallen in love with a guy who couldn't get regular time over our other catchers (WAR for the season: -0.8 and -0.5), then there isn't reason to suspect we would get anyone that could be reasonably be expected to be better than replacement level either. And if you think that Swihart could be productive next season, allow me to refer you to the previously referenced WAR of our catchers. Basically, the argument for trading Swihart is that a. The Red Sox are horribly misusing them and b. another team realizes that and c. the Red Sox also realize that and that's why they would hold out for value.
     
  48. Plympton91

    Plympton91 bubble burster SoSH Member

    Messages:
    11,492
    In the event that Pedroia and everyone else is healthy at some point in 2019, the Red Sox will end up having to trade or release one of Moreland, Pearce, Swihart, Leon, Holt, or Nunez.
     
  49. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

    Messages:
    4,970
  50. DeadlySplitter

    DeadlySplitter Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    15,432
    2.5M to a rebuilding team. Our interest must have been greatly exaggerated.
     

Share This Page