Because batting second is magically different than batting ninth? We're seeing what he's got.ifmanis5 said:If he's indeed the real deal, move him up to 2nd. Time to remove the training wheels. Not like they're in a pennant chase here. Betts, JBJ, X, works out since it's R-L-R. Let's see what he's got.
It may or may not be different to the hitter, but it's a fact that you would get an extra 4-5 PA per week from the current best hitter in the game. I guess it doesn't matter this year but winning games is generally the goal and getting more chances for JBJ seems like a good way to win games right now.Rasputin said:Because batting second is magically different than batting ninth? We're seeing what he's got.
And if he continues to hit, not just for average, but with power, well, it's going to be hard to put together a bad lineup.
Toe Nash said:It may or may not be different to the hitter, but it's a fact that you would get an extra 4-5 PA per week from the current best hitter in the game. I guess it doesn't matter this year but winning games is generally the goal and getting more chances for JBJ seems like a good way to win games right now.
ifmanis5 said:If he's indeed the real deal, move him up to 2nd. Time to remove the training wheels. Not like they're in a pennant chase here. Betts, JBJ, X, works out since it's R-L-R. Let's see what he's got.
Because the wraparound 8-9-1-2-3 of Swihart/Hanigan-Bradley-Betts-Whoever-Bogaerts has powered the team to a 16-11 record over the last month, during which time they've been as good as any offense in baseball.ifmanis5 said:So why is he still hitting 9th?
To me Cespedes is an outlier. I believe he is not a very good outfielder, with poor instincts and poor reads. So a lot of his assists come after he has already misplayed a ball and the runner/coach at that point took a chance that Cespedes arm made up for.geoduck no quahog said:As you know, I agree with Betts-Bradley-Castillo. It occurs to me that looking at assist totals as an indicator of arm strength/accuracy may be deceptive because the better the arm (by reputation) the lower the odds of someone trying to take an extra base. That's what's amazing about Cespedes' 16 assists in 2014 - he led all outfielders in assists despite everyone knowing they shouldn't test his arm.
Just a reminder - on July 28th he only had 30 ABs for the season.Smiling Joe Hesketh said:On Aug. 5 JBJ was putting up a 102/220/163 line for the season.
Today his line is 312/385/631.
That's insane.
Yup. I had the good luck to be sitting next to some total strangers who are serious fans at today's game and we were all just gasping and at a loss for words with each successive bullet he hit today, till the last one drove his OPS for the season over 1.000. This is Joe Hardy, deal with the devil stuff.Smiling Joe Hesketh said:On Aug. 5 JBJ was putting up a 102/220/163 line for the season.
Today his line is 312/385/631.
That's insane.
Buzzkill Pauley said:Because the wraparound 8-9-1-2-3 of Swihart/Hanigan-Bradley-Betts-Whoever-Bogaerts has powered the team to a 16-11 record over the last month, during which time they've been as good as any offense in baseball.
Toe Nash said:I mean...I can't believe on this board in 2015 we're having batting order discussions that boil down to "it's not broke, so keep running that sub-optimal lineup out there!"
Toe Nash said:I mean...I can't believe on this board in 2015 we're having batting order discussions that boil down to "it's not broke, so keep running that sub-optimal lineup out there!"
Toe Nash said:I mean...I can't believe on this board in 2015 we're having batting order discussions that boil down to "it's not broke, so keep running that sub-optimal lineup out there!"
-JBJ may be comfortable with the low-pressure 9th spot, but no MLB player hitting like he has been is going to be happy hitting last for very long.
-The #2 guy is only guaranteed to hit second once per game. So whatever things a usual #2 hitter "does" are overrated -- he could need to do those things when hitting 9th, or 7th, or whatever. Just like he's going to be leading off some innings and hitting 4th some innings.
This isn't novel stuff. Generally yes, you want to keep guys in the spot they are used to because the difference between hitting 3rd or 5th is minimal. But when one guy is pummeling the ball and has been for over a month, you don't want him 9th. It doesn't have to be 2nd, but he should move up in the order.
If you do believe that he's comfortable hitting 9th and they should leave things as-is, do you think they're going to put him there for the rest of his career? If you can't test things out in September of a lost season, when can you make those moves? He'll get used to it.
By this logic, it is amazing that more teams don't bat their best batters in the 8 and 9 slot. Kidding...sort of.geoduck no quahog said:
Why? So he can practice hitting behind the runner? Taking pitches to allow the steal? Practice the hit-and-run? Or because the Blue jays have Donaldson hitting second...
Blake-Bradley-Betts-Pedroia (Holt)-Bogaerts hitting 8-9-1-2-3 is a great lineup with speed and power leading to Ortiz and Ramirez. Plus, Bradley (if he keeps this up) protects Blake.
I like it the way it is. Fuck with the pitcher who has just navigated through the first 8 and now has to deal with JBJ. Don't mess with success.
They're 16-11. How many MORE games would they have won with Sandoval hitting 9th instead? We're talking about batting order meaning multiple wins in a month?swingin val said:By this logic, it is amazing that more teams don't bat their best batters in the 8 and 9 slot. Kidding...sort of.
Yes, it is working, but anyone advocating for keeping the status quo, simply because it is working, is not thinking too hard about it. Pablo Sandoval has taken about half the PA's at the number 2 spot in the past month. He has not been good and who knows how many games that cost them because of that.
I understand that the games are somewhat meaningless now, and this is an extended tryout for a myriad of things. I tend to think that after a month of absolutely scorching the ball, it is time to find out what this team looks like with a Bradley somewhere in the top 2/3 of the lineup.
Toe Nash said:I mean...I can't believe on this board in 2015 we're having batting order discussions that boil down to "it's not broke, so keep running that sub-optimal lineup out there!"
swingin val said:By this logic, it is amazing that more teams don't bat their best batters in the 8 and 9 slot. Kidding...sort of.
Marvelous post.koufax37 said:
Well, this is part of the logic that Joe Maddon uses hitting pitchers 8th, and when you have a dynamic leadoff bat instead a table setter, having him hit with runners on after his first inning at bat is a value. So having your soft spot 7/8 instead of 8/9 can have an advantage (offset by the game where your 8 hitter makes the last out and your better 9 hitter doesn't bat).
But much more important to this situation is the psychology of a human who has ridden a roller coaster and is not a robot or an equation. Moving him now is only based on how it will help him as an individual. The team win difference of such a move is just off zero and well under one from a math perspective to a team that five wins wouldn't significantly impact, so what matters is what will help Jackie the human being stay at his peak performance, build confidence, and roll this all into a great 2016.
More importantly, as much as I would love him to end up being a .300/.400/.600 superman with a plus glove, that is Griffey land, and I need to see a much larger sample size before I dare hope that is who he really is, so I think he is a hot 9-hole hitter and unlikely perform like a 2-hole hitter for a prolonged period of time. So enjoy the production out of that spot while we hope the inevitable regression is delayed and minor.
koufax37 said:
Well, this is part of the logic that Joe Maddon uses hitting pitchers 8th, and when you have a dynamic leadoff bat instead a table setter, having him hit with runners on after his first inning at bat is a value. So having your soft spot 7/8 instead of 8/9 can have an advantage (offset by the game where your 8 hitter makes the last out and your better 9 hitter doesn't bat).
But much more important to this situation is the psychology of a human who has ridden a roller coaster and is not a robot or an equation. Moving him now is only based on how it will help him as an individual. The team win difference of such a move is just off zero and well under one from a math perspective to a team that five wins wouldn't significantly impact, so what matters is what will help Jackie the human being stay at his peak performance, build confidence, and roll this all into a great 2016.
More importantly, as much as I would love him to end up being a .300/.400/.600 superman with a plus glove, that is Griffey land, and I need to see a much larger sample size before I dare hope that is who he really is, so I think he is a hot 9-hole hitter and unlikely perform like a 2-hole hitter for a prolonged period of time. So enjoy the production out of that spot while we hope the inevitable regression is delayed and minor.
How the hell is hitting higher in the order going to put pressure on him?keninten said:I`d like to see what JBJ could do under the pressure of hitting higher in the order.
Go back 1-2 pages and you can find the complete answer to your first question.TallManinOregon said:An interesting thought occurs to me reading this thread:
What do you think Ben tried to get for JBJ in trade talks or what did other GMs offer/reject in trade talks that JBJ's name came up in?
-and-
What might be offered for JBJ this offseason now that he has "figured out" the toe tap or whatever else has been the impetus for this crazy 5 weeks of JBJ-Goodness?
Is there a Sabermetric stat to measure the difference in Trade Value from (time X) to (time Y)?
I`ve always thought top of the order batters would have more pressure to produce. JBJ at the bottom of the order with fewer baserunners would bring less pressure. There is no pressure to win. What I`m talking about is a player rising to the occasion(Papi,Larry Bird), compared to another player who would choke under pressure. I`ve never coached above high school ball so maybe it`s just something you look for in kids. I`m not good at putting my thoughts on paper, so don`t kick my ass too hard.Rasputin said:How the hell is hitting higher in the order going to put pressure on him?
There is no pressure to win.
The pressure to play for a job next year can't be more than a fraction of a gnat's asshole different hitting first or ninth.
For anyone who's played baseball his whole life, there's likely to be a new pressure to be a "plays the game the right way" top of the order hitter. Even if that's a self-imposed pressure.Rasputin said:How the hell is hitting higher in the order going to put pressure on him?
Buzzkill Pauley said:For anyone who's played baseball his whole life, there's likely to be a new pressure to be a "plays the game the right way" top of the order hitter. Even if that's a self-imposed pressure.
As was mentioned before, traditional "top of the order" hitting includes stuff like watching hittable pitches go by, hitting the ball behind the runner, sacrificing the runners into scoring position for the power hitters, etc.
In other word, exactly the stuff JBJ shouldn't have to worry about churning around in his brain at the same time he's still locking in new batting mechanics. Hitting 9th provides him the opportunity to just "see ball, hit ball" instead. So I say, leave him be.
Before Monday, three players this season have had two games of four hits and at least four RBIs: MVP candidate Josh Donaldson of the Jays, Carlos Gonzalez of the Rockies and Nick Castellanos of the Tigers.
Bradley became the fourth, and he did it in the span of 23 days. He also had four hits and four RBIs against Seattle on Aug. 15.
Well said. Pressure wasn't the issue before; it was technique and approach. So he should hit in a spot in the lineup where his technique and approach can breathe. If they believe he can take the same approach in another position, great, but there's no hurry.Buzzkill Pauley said:For anyone who's played baseball his whole life, there's likely to be a new pressure to be a "plays the game the right way" top of the order hitter. Even if that's a self-imposed pressure.
As was mentioned before, traditional "top of the order" hitting includes stuff like watching hittable pitches go by, hitting the ball behind the runner, sacrificing the runners into scoring position for the power hitters, etc.
In other word, exactly the stuff JBJ shouldn't have to worry about churning around in his brain at the same time he's still locking in new batting mechanics. Hitting 9th provides him the opportunity to just "see ball, hit ball" instead. So I say, leave him be.
WenZink said:
It doesn't matter one whit where he bats the last 20+ games of this year. He may stay at 9th until he slumps for a week, and then he's moved. It probably has more to do with superstition.
What does matter is where the Red Sox see him in next year's batting order. What kind of hitter do they think they have after 30 games of off the charts? He's obviously neither the 1.350 OPS hitter of the last month, nor is he the .550 OPS hitter in his previous PAs, but the gap between the two extremes is so enormous that it's hard to predict. ST might tell them a lot or, as it often does, tell them nothing.
In all my years of watching the Sox, I can think of only one comparable break out streak from a struggling hitter. In 1962, after two part seasons with the Sox, 24 year old Lou Clinton (RF), was struggling, again, in mid June. He was just about at 500 PAs, and his OPS+ was below 60. Then, from the end of June to the end of July, he went on a tear, and post an OPA of around 1.400, again similar to what JBJ has done. After that streak, Clinton was just about league average for the rest of his career. Unlike JBJ, he was not an elite center fielder, so his career was not very long. But I do remember the huge letdown, when Clinton settled back to just "average."
I also can't wait until the mid-winter projections come out (STEAMER,Zips, Bill James, etc) to see what they predict and if there's much variance.(it will tell more about the projection process than the player, of course.)
kieckeredinthehead said:Bradley is going to fall back to earth. I think. If you move him up in the batting order and he starts to revert as part of his natural progression, he (and management and media and fans) may attribute his offensive decline to batting order change. Don't confound variables. Keep him at the bottom of the order and see how he adjusts to the league adjusting to him.
Cumberland Blues said:More in the fun with small (tho becoming less small all the time) sample sizes dept...in fewer than 40% of the PA he had last year, JBJ already has more XBH this year (25 to 23).
WenZink said:
All those points fit with the general consensus, save the few that want to see him tested at a higher spot in the order. Whatever "tested" means.
But assuming there are no big trades over the winter and the Sox get the benefit of a healthy spring, where do the Sox see JBJ in their lineup? Assume, as well, that Hanley shows more aptitude for 1B than for LF and the Sox are willing to go forward with Hanley 2.0.
You'd have two power bats with Ortiz and Ramirez (in expectation that he finds his stroke), two players in Bogaerts and Swihart who will, I expect, gradually show more power in the next 3 years, but not dramatically, Betts, who has the second highest slugging average by a wide margin, but obviously is a top of the order choice, and Castillo, who, at 28, is expected to be at his power peak. Add to that mix, a returning Pedroia and Panda, and then there is JBJ.
I've tried constructing a lineup, but where to put JBJ is still a mystery. Is he going to be "just" a league average hitter,with a low OBP (.300) but high SLG(>.450) who runs hot and cold with a lot of K's? I'll take that from an elite defender. I'm guessing the Sox hope for more, but expect the.760 OPS guy with a low OBP for 2016, and that JBJ starts next season near the bottom of the order. Give him another 250 PA's in a more meaningful part of the season to assess his offensive talent.
I would prefer this myself:Red(s)HawksFan said:
Assuming no trades, I expect the lineup to be something along the lines of Betts, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Ortiz, Ramirez, Sandoval, Castillo, Swihart, and Bradley. There's not a lull in the lineup if everyone is healthy and performs to reasonable expectation.
Drek717 said:I would prefer this myself:
Betts
Pedroia
Ortiz
Hanley
Bradley
Bogaerts
Sandoval
Castillo
Swihart
Other than Betts and Pedroia at the top that's L-R-L all the way through.