What areas are the Sox likely to see some drop-off in offensive performance, and where could they see some improvement?
C - Salty (118 ops+, 2.9 bWAR), Ross (86 ops+, 0.7 bWAR); Sox catchers put up a .787 ops (#3 in MLB). I thought that re-signing Salty would be a no-brainer, but it's looking like it's a real possibility that they'll move on. Maybe Ruiz? As much as Salty struggled in the postseason, the fact is that replacing a 118 ops+ and 2.9 WAR at the position won't be easy. Ruiz has posted an average of a 117 ops+ and 3.0 bWAR the past three seasons, so if that's the play then I think all it would be for is a cost savings, theoretically, but the expected production wouldn't be really any of an improvement. The only option here would be McCann, but even McCann's last 3 seasons have given him a 108 ops+ and 1.9 bWAR on average. So it's going to be very difficult to replace Salty with something more productive, and I like McCann. Consider this position, at best, to be no loss, no gain.
1b - Napoli (129 ops+, 4.1 bWAR), Carp (140 ops+, 1.3 bWAR); Sox 1b put up an .841 ops (#7 in MLB). Here's where I would have liked to have seen them try for the potential masher in Abreu, but that didn't work out. So at this point there probably aren't many quality alternatives that can produce what Napoli did. Despite all his various struggles this year, a 129 ops+ and 4.1 bWAR is solid, especially given the relatively inexpensive cost for that production. And Carp spelled Napoli very nicely. I honestly see no reason why this can't work out again in 2014…maybe Carp doesn't quite do what he did, but I'd also expect Napoli to perhaps turn some of those career-high 38 doubles into a few more homers. But again, I don't see any real loss or gain, so long as they re-sign Napoli, which I think most of us expect to happen. But if they don't, then this becomes a potential hole.
2b - Pedroia (116 ops+, 6.5 bWAR). He's one of the best in the game, and even though he didn't hit for many homers, his overall production was solid. As his thumb heals, I expect more power moving forward, so honestly, this is one area where I think the Sox can see marginal improvement.
3b - Middlebrooks (88 ops+, -0.1 bWAR). Sox' 3b had a .683 ops last year, good for 21st in MLB. This is one area where I expect to see significant improvement, even if all it is is Middlebrooks playing there all season. The Sox' 3b line for the season was: .242/.288/.395/.683, 20 hr, 79 rbi. Middlebrooks hit .227/.271/.425/.696, with 17 hr, 49 rbi in just 348 ab. Project those numbers over, say, 600 ab, and you get 29 hr, 84 rbi. So I think just Middlebrooks alone improves the offense. And if he does improve, as I expect he will, he could put up 30+ hr, 90+ rbi, and an ops of .800 or better. So I think 3b can be a place where the Sox see an upgrade.
SS - Drew (111 ops+, 3.1 bWAR). Sox' SS had a .771 ops, good for 4th in MLB. On the one hand, it seems like it would be very difficult to replace this production, but this is one area where I think they can. Two reasons: First, if Drew stays, then I think he'll do better himself than he did last year. But if he goes, then I think Bogaerts has the potential to improve substantially on these numbers, despite being a rookie. However, it's also possible that they turn the job over to him and he experiences what most rookies do: some struggles. And that means that they don't match last year's SS production. This one could go either way.
LF - Nava (128 ops+, 2.9 bWAR), Gomes (111 ops+, 1.2 bWAR). Sox' LF were 3rd in MLB with a .790 ops. So that's going to be hard to replace. Will the same guys put up the same numbers if you just keep this platoon in place? it's possible. Here are their career splits:
- Nava vs. RHP: .292/.390/.443/.833
- Gomes vs. LHP: .277/.377/.502/.879
So it's not unrealistic at all for me to think that if they just leave LF as it is, they could even potentially get better production out of that position. It's an ideal platoon situation - both guys seem to understand their roles and seem to be ok with it. That said, they could potentially upgrade here by gong after Choo or Beltran. We'll see.
CF - Ellsbury (114 ops+, 5.8 bWAR). This one will be the most difficult position to deal with. Ellsbury is a very good player, but he's going to cost a fortune. Do the Sox pay the price? Even if they do, there's no guarantee that Jacoby will reproduce these numbers again. He had a terrific season. But what are the options if he leaves? You could move Victorino to CF and sign a corner OF (Beltran, Hart, Choo, etc.), but that seriously weakens the defense (and Ellsbury had a 1.9 dWAR last year) in two spots, and the offense has to give you a 114 ops+ again just to make that part even. I don't see it happening. They could simply slide JBJ in there, and while I think it makes a lot of sense for a lot of different reasons, it's almost certain that in 2014, at least, he won't be putting up these Ellsbury-type numbers. So I expect a significant drop off in CF production.
RF - Victorino (119 ops+, 6.2 bWAR). Let's face it: the guy had a great 2013 season. Even in the postseason, where he really struggled, he still had some of the biggest hits of all. At his age, I do not see him reproducing these numbers. He won't have to to still be a very good and valuable player, but nonetheless, I expect a drop off here. And there's really no way to replace that, unless he's moving to CF and another guy slides into the RF spot.
DH - Ortiz (160 ops+, 4.4 bWAR). Again, it'll be very hard to replace Papi's bat, even with David Ortiz himself. Will he put up this line again: .309/.395/.564/.959, 30 hr, 103 rbi? It's possible, especially if he plays that extra month that he sat out last year. But it's not likely. Why? Here are his last four seasons, which are his resurgence years: 137 ops+, 154 ops+, 173 ops+, 160 ops+. The 173 came in just 324 ab. I know he's hitting lefties much better the past few years, but averaging all that out comes to a 154 ops+. So I expect him to be good, and the best DH in the league, but I still think it's totally reasonable to expect a drop off from last year.
So offensively, there aren't many places to improve, really. And that's not terribly surprising, because they aren't built around a couple of mega stars and then bit players, so you can't just say, look, if they replace the bit players they'll be amazing. They had excellent contributions up and down the roster, so it's hard to see too many places where improvement is reasonable to expect.
I think you live with the decreased production at CF and C, hope that you get more out of SS and 3b with some combination of Drew/Bogaerts/Middlebrooks, hope that Pedroia hits for more power, that Napoli returns, and that Gomes and Nava do what they do, and you figure you're looking at roughly the same number of runs being scored.
And that leaves the pitching. I think we can expect more from the pitching. Lester seems to have just turned a corner (if you can say that given his first 4-5 years in the majors), so I expect a better 2014 out of him. I hope Clay gives them more innings. I think Lackey will be just fine. And I think we can expect more from Doubront. Moreover, I prefer Peavey in the #5 slot over Dempster, but I think Tanaka or Hudson would improve that spot even more. So I think the starting pitching can be improved pretty quickly as well. As for the bullpen? Well it'll be impossible for Koji to repeat his historically great 2013 season, but even a "normal" Koji has produced a 2.42 era, 0.83 whip, 10.4 k/9 (his career averages). So if "all" he gives them is that, that's pretty great. And I think Taz and Workman will improve and hopefully Miller stays healthy. So I think the bullpen can be even better.
Long story shorter, I think the Sox can be very good next year without blowing up the bridge, but I wouldn't be shy about trading away a few of their assets if they can make a real improvement somewhere.