That is fair. Personal preference is I'd rather go with BB in 2024 with Vrabel and Josh in the mix to take over in 2025. At the least, they have both been to the playoffs and won a game.
Black Monday watch
- Thread starter nattysez
- Start date
Seems like McDaniel gets a ton of praise but what has he accomplished? Two season without winning a division, no playoffs wins (assuming the don't show up this weekend either). No first downs in the first half last week, 3 out of the last 5 games they lost to blow the division. All of this with a good QB on a rookie deal when you're supposed to be making a super bowl run. That team is not set up to be a dominant playoff team for years, they will be competing with the Jets/Bills/Pats (assuming a good defense and improving offense) next year and future years. The Dolphins are basically the 2021 Pats, which mainly in here would deem a failure.
I very clearly envision a scenario where the Dolphins are perceived as a hot team due to a new approach, only to see the NFL catch up to it fairly quickly and yet another burnout coach. We should also remember 80% of SoSH demanded McDaniel be fired halfway through his first season because of his management of Tua's brain injuries.
Crazy thought... maybe if the league is obsessed with young, offensive coaches the way to stand out and become a winner is to not do that.
Getting the 8th best young offensive coach because others have made the playoffs in years prior seems like a great way to pile onto a trend that is about to fail. The talent you're hiring is likely worse, the offensive talent you're giving them is likely being bid up and therefore worse value, and the areas you're ignoring likely have big potential to stand out in a league with a salary cap where value carries the day.
Getting the 8th best young offensive coach because others have made the playoffs in years prior seems like a great way to pile onto a trend that is about to fail. The talent you're hiring is likely worse, the offensive talent you're giving them is likely being bid up and therefore worse value, and the areas you're ignoring likely have big potential to stand out in a league with a salary cap where value carries the day.
Does this argument assume that BB is not interested in the Shula record? Because one more season is not going to get him there.
Vrabel in the mix I think is just not realistic. He's going to get offers, he's a pretty good coach, and he'll have options in a way Patricia and Judge didn't. There would also be some question what he brings in that one year, we have plenty of defensive coaches, and offense is very much not his area of expertise.
I don't think it's an unqualified success, but.... McDaniel took over a team that was pretty bad on offense and whose highly drafted QB looked in trouble, and couldn't run the ball. He's in 2 years turned them into one of the best offenses in the league both passing and rushing and saved Tua's career.
They made the playoffs both seasons he was there with increased wins each year... that's a really good start. We'll see how they do in the playoffs (I assume they lose, they have lost basically all their edges to injury), but making the playoffs every year, and getting more wins than the last year is a good start. Not many new coaches take over teams and go win SBs within the 1st two years.
I don’t necessarily understand the need to immediately move to another HC job after a firing. You’re probably still getting paid, why not take a year off and recharge? It’s unlikely that you’ll be in a substantially better position than your previous job and if you flame out again, its doubtful you’ll get an another chance.
It's a bit hard to evaluate Vrabel given that his GM decided to trade a top 5-10 guy in AJ Brown and replace him with Treylon Burks which is high in the pantheon of dumbest moves ever. That said the TN offense of years past doesn't exactly light my world on fire. Giving Henry 30 carries when he's in his prime is great and all, but giving him 18 carries for 40 yards or 20 carries for 60 yards when you lose and go home seems suboptimal.
So go the defensive coordinator route. Someone like Aaron Glenn in Detroit. A players survey came out a few days ago that had him ranked #1 d-coordinator. Sounds like he’s well liked and respected by his players.
Could be a good idea, but we've heard for years that BB operates this way---zig when other teams zag. Sometimes teams are zagging for a good reason.
To be clear, my argument is that teams are trending to offense with big fast WR and QBs that can move. Maybe (maybe!!) it's time to get on board with that.
Which is funny because DET has a bottom 5 pass D in the NFL and Aaron Glenn was a pro-bowl CB so if anything you'd think his D would be at least average vs. the pass.
Do you think there is a premium for "big fast WR and QBs that can move"?
Which "big fast WR" and "QBs that can move" can we acquire?
Will they be better than the other teams that are doing the same thing?
What is our edge vs every other team that has been doing this?
Will our coach be better suited to coach this team vs every other trendy coach who has been doing the same thing for years with their own Big Fast WR and QB that can move?
Remember when the Giants gave Daniel Jones $40mm a year because he is/was a QB that could move?
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Condescend much amigo? That's not a good faith response so I won't respond or even see your posts for a while.
Enjoy.
This is obviously an unanswerable question.
That said, DJ Moore was traded to the Bears. Tyreke Hill was traded to Miami. Deandre Hopkins was signed by Tennessee. Dallas traded for Brandin Cooks. Cleveland traded for Elijah Moore. Plenty of other players were signed, too. The list is quite long.
There is movement for WRs in the league. It's possible to get them if you try to make a deal.
I really wasn't trying to at all. Not sure how it came off that way. If the suggestion was to copy what everyone else is doing, I figured there would be answers to those basic questions.
Cooks (a #2 WR) had 53 catches for 657 yards this year
Elijah Moore (also a #2 WR), had 59 catches for 640 yards.
Both were slightly better than the 49 catches for 561 yards that Demario Douglass had for the Pats.
DJ Moore and Hopkins were on teams that have top 10 picks.
Tyreke Hill is obviously incredible and their team did not win the division for two straight years and will be eliminated in the first round again. He also eats up about $30mm a year.
AJ Brown trade, Amari Cooper trade, Stefon Diggs was traded by the Vikings to Buffalo and one of those picks turned into Justin Jefferson...CMC was traded...
It always makes me wince when folks talk about the draft and free agency as the only recipe to acquire talent. Trades, particularly with top of the heap offensive skill players happen pretty regularly in the NFL, and the results have trended to be pretty damn good for the team receiving the talent.
I guess you're saying, "Just don't try, what's the point?"
It's not a winning strategy. I should note that the Patriots scored the least amount of points in the NFL. Seems like something they should try to address. Points are good. I am under the impression that if you score more points than the other team, you win. So the more you put up, the better chance you have to win.
If I am reading that wrong, please educate me.
Are we forgetting:
Raiders trade a first and second round pick for DeVante Adams to not make the playoffs?
Cardinals trading for Hopkins to not make the playoffs?
Bears trading for Chase Claypool to not make the playoffs?
Titans trading for Robert Woods to not make the playoffs?
The Pats trading for Sanu....
I never said that. I will educate you. The original statement advocated for the Pats copying what other teams are doing, bidding up for "big fast WR" and "QBs that can move". I did not say we shouldn't try. I asked what our edge is to be the 15th team to pile into that trend. Clearly it is not working for the vast majority of teams attempting to do it. Your post showed 5 WRs as a success story. I pointed out these were not success stories.
I do not have the answers here. I just know that copying what everyone else has been doing for years is not a path to an outlier success story. I'm not sure why pushing back on something that isn't working for teams is seen as saying we should give up. Maybe we should try to think creatively, in a differentiated manner.
They've been decimated by injuries. More so than the usual NFL team has by end of year. They were playing very well before they lost key players.
Are you really putting Sanu, Claypool, and Robert Woods in the same category as those other WRs?
Even though the Cardinals didn't make the playoffs, they definitely got the better end of the deal in receiving Hopkins.
I will say that two of those trades were absolutely crushed by the football media at the time and, boy, were they right...
Sanu and Claypool
I know as Patriots fans we tend to view everything through the lens of being a championship contender. But when you are a 4 win team with the worst offense in the league, you need to make some moves to try to get better, and then build from there. Just because the teams acquiring those players didn't make the playoffs doesn't mean those moves didn't improve their roster. The Patriots need better players on offense particularly at the receiver position.
I listed all the WR trades over the last few years that were omitted. Claypool and Sanu were traded for 2nd round picks. Elijah Moore (who was highlighted) was traded along with a 3rd round pick for a 2nd round pick. Brandin Cooks was traded was traded for a 5th and 6th round draft pick. Robert Woods was traded for a 6th round pick. These seem in line to me, but I also tried to not be exclusive in my list.
The goal of improving your roster is to win. If you are not winning playoff games, what is the point? Do you think the Cardinals and Raiders fans think they did well? Both teams are on new GMs and Head Coaches.
When you are a 4 win team trying to improve to an 11 win team that makes the playoffs (like the Dolphins are) is the point. If you are saying there is no difference between an 11 win team who loses in the first round of the playoffs and a 4 win team that was un-watchable all year long we'll have to agree to disagree.
and Belichick has made trades for starting caliber (maybe not superstar mega talents) to varying levels of success. Moss, Welker, Gordon, Cooks. Outside of WR, Dillon, Trent Brown, Blount and myriad guys who are clearly not “top of heap” players but played vital roles and were upgrades.
Other than Cooks, yes they were all “buy low” types and some of those guys weren’t all world elite players but Amari Cooper was a buy low. Diggs and AJ Brown are good examples and the Pats should have been in on Brown for sure (though not sure it would have been feasible cap space-wise) but the NFL isn’t like baseball where it’s common or “easy” to go out and acquire a star player at a position of need. You need a very specific set of circumstances on both parties’ part. And Belichick has shown (Cooks being the most obvious and recent example), he’s not afraid to aggressively go out and get a guy at a premium price. I cant think of many GM’s that are as active as he is with trades.
Buffalo made a great trade for Diggs. But it’s not like they followed that up with lots of mega talent trades after that. Belichick isn’t exactly out of line with other GM’s in terms of frequency for making big trades for star players.
Super Bowl favorites are SF. SF has Deebo and Aiyuk. And Kittle. Dallas wont he division. CD Lamb and Cooks. Plus the awesome TEs. Tampa won their division. Mike Evans. Godwin. Detroit won their division. Amon Ra St. Brown and Laporta.
Cleveland made the playoffs with the 4th string QB. Amani Cooper and Njoku. Buffalo won their division. Stefon Diggs. Plus the TEs. Ravens are the favorites in the AFC. Odell and Flowers. And even Likely, the backup, is doing an excellent job. Miami didn't make the playoffs for years, got Tyreke Hill and Waddle, and made the playoffs two years in a row. Green Bay, with a QB playing his first season, made the playoffs. Reed, Wicks, Watson, and the TEs.
Of course, the Chiefs made the decision to ignore WR and Mahomes had his worst season by far. Just a random coincidence I assume? 35% of the Rams roster is undrafted free agents and they made the playoffs. Puka and Kupp. The Eagles got AJ Brown and Smith and made the Super Bowl. And the playoffs again this year, despite the defense being a tire fire.
Instead of focusing on the teams who didn't make it (and your statement that DJ Moore was useless because they didn't make the playoffs is obviously nonsense) maybe take a look at the teams who did? What's the defining characteristic of the teams? They all have stud WRs and TEs and in most cases, both, who can put up chunk plays.
And they don't need to just be big and fast. Those WRs all play a much different style. But you do need guys who are good.
Hello from Seattle! It's definitely diminishing returns. Mediocrity is worse than collapsing and rebuilding.
We're putting Chase Claypool and Robert Woods in the same sentences with guys like Diggs, Hill, Brown, CMC, etc?
Did the Raiders not make the playoffs this year because of their trade for Adams? Their offense was 12th in yards and 12th in points last season following that trade, but their defense was bottom 5 in the NFL in both categories.
Did the Cardinals miss the playoffs because of Hopkins? Their offense went from 16th in scoring and 21st in yards to 13th in points and 6th in yards following that trade.
The Titans traded for Hopkins because they traded away AJ Brown. AJ Brown then went to Philly, and what happened there.
How did the Miami offense and Tua specifically look before Hill got there? Same with the Bills and Allen before Diggs got there?
The Niners were 1-6 to start last season, and then didn't lose their next 12 games once CMC got integrated into the offense.
The Bears got DJ Moore, and are likely going to end up with Caleb Williams as a result of that trade with Carolina.
Is Cleveland sitting in the playoffs right now, with 5 different starting QB's if they don't have Amari Cooper on the roster?
Miami Dolphins by year:
2019: 5-11
2020: 10-6
2021: 9-8
2022: 9-8
2023: 11-6
No playoff wins.
I don't understand your point. There is no point in trying to improve your roster then unless you can guarantee playoff wins? How will you know when you are making those moves? Right now would you rather have the Dolphins roster or the Pats roster?
Nobody is questioning Belichick's past. He's the best coach ever and one of the best GMs of all time, too.
But if your argument is Belichick got Moss and Welker, well, that's not really helpful because those were over a decade ago. Even Cooks was over 5 years ago. And Gordon definitely doesn't count for anything.
The Pats have traded for a whole lot of WR during Belichick’s tenure. Devante Parker being the most recent. While he’s leaps and bounds below Moore and Hill (neither of whom seem like realistic options the Pats could or would have traded for), he’s not really far off from some of the others (his last 2 seasons in Miami are pretty similar to Cooks’ 2022 and more productive than anything Moore put up 2021-22)
he’s traded for a WR almost every 2 years (Cooks, Sanu, Parker just in the last 7 off seasons). Gordon, Moss, Welker, Patterson and others. It’s not like he doesn’t recognize that WR can be had via trade.
I listed every transaction I could find, unlike you who cherry picked success stories then wrote: "Trades, particularly with top of the heap offensive skill players happen pretty regularly in the NFL, and the results have trended to be pretty damn good for the team receiving the talent." But as was shown, this is not true. You are pointing to improvement on offense, I do not disagree with you. I'm pointing out if we are supposed to be targeting this as a strategy for success, and we are trading away assets to acquire top talent, we should make sure our team is more successful afterwards. The Raiders and Cardinals tried and failed to even make the playoffs. Miami has barely improved their record and has no playoff wins to show for it. The Titans didn't "trade for Hopkins" he signed as a FA. I don't really care how Miami's offense looks if they can't win games. Tua's contract goes from $9mm to $23mm next year. "The Dolphins are slated to be $41 million over the projected salary cap of $242 million in 2024, which means the franchise will have to purge some players and restructure a couple of existing contracts simply to comply with the NFL rules. " They have no 3rd or 4th round pick in 2024. That team is borderline toast and has no playoff wins to show for it. This is our goal?
my argument is that he has shown consistently that he’s willing to make trades for WR ranging from buy low to in their prime studs and he has a 20+ year history of acquiring players via trade. Sometimes they pan out as expected, sometimes worse than expected, sometimes better than expected. That’s the nature of trades though.
The difference between Elijah Moore, current Brandin Cooks and 2019 Sanu, 2021 Devante Parker is almost nil. We don’t need to go back to Moss. Sanu got hurt and washed out and Parker has never gotten back to his 1000 yard form but any argument that those 2 guys acquired in the last 5 years are somehow leaps and bounds below some of the examples you have provided is lost on me.
Yes the Pats haven’t traded a 1st for a mega talent WR. Yes they desperately need WR talent. Nobody is suggesting otherwise. The idea that he hasn’t made recent efforts via trade to address that gap is just wrong. And while WR is important, I don’t know that I would have given up the 2022 or 2023 1st rounders for a guy (say DJ Moore who was probably only available in a move for the 1sr overall pick but obviously unknowable)
Here's a good question:
Would you trade #3 for Terry McLaurin, Washington's first round pick next year, and 2nd round pick this year?
You know why you think it's "not true?" Because you ignored the bolded part, and started talking about Chase fucking Claypool and Robert Woods and Mohammad Sanu.
The rest of this is just crazy. If you'd rather be in the Patriots position than Miami, I don't even know where to begin to have this conversation.
And the Raiders and Cardinals IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY as a result of those trades. You're ignoring that, and all of the other context surrounding why those teams didn't make the playoffs. The trades for Adams and Hopkins are not why they didn't succeed as a team, but they damn sure helped them get closer to succeeding than otherwise.
And I'm not cherry picking success stories, I'm literally pointing out the best players to move teams via trade. It's you who want to move the goalposts to "every single skill position player traded." AJ Brown, Tyreke Hill, CMC, Stephon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins, Adams, Amari Cooper, DJ Moore....I mean, that's a lot of cherry picking.
The thing about WR's is that the vast majority of good ones are good for about 7 seasons and then they're not that good anymore. The great ones extend that to 10 seasons and a tiny few go a bit longer. I'm not sure it's worth giving up a decent shot at a franchise QB for 2-3 years of a good WR.
Mohamed Sanu isn't leaps and bounds worse than who? He was the #2 option on a team with Julio Jones, playing in a dome, and he wasn't very good. If he was, Atlanta wouldn't have spent a first rounder on Calvin Ridley, and then shipped Sanu's ass out of town, when a desperate Belichick offered way more than a 30yr old who never had 900 receiving yards in his career was worth in order to make Brady feel like he was doing something to help the shit roster he created around him.
Parker has been so overrated around here, it's comical. Again, he was a guy his team was happy to let go (kind of like what Miami did with Gesicki, but there's Bill ready to pounce). Dude had one good season in 2019, and has never had an 800 yard receiving season besides that one.
These guys are JAGs in every sense of the word, they aren't the type of guys who move needles. They're the moves every team makes to fill out a roster, not to fill out the top spots at positions on a team.
LOL, I say that to myself every time I read one of JohnMD's posts, and I have no idea how I switched. I always remember how to spell it because I like the idea of having "reek" in his name.Memo to two of my favorite posters in this forum: It's TYREEK Hill not TYREKE Hill.
Carry on
Oakland Raiders record:
2018 (Gruden): 4-12
2019 (Gruden) 7-9
2020 (Gruden): 8-8
2021 (Gruden/Bisaccia) 10-7
TRADE FOR DEVANTE ADAMS
2022 (McDaniels): 6-11
2023 (McDaniels/Pierce) 8-9
Dramatic improvement. No playoff wins, a coach fired, no playoff appearances.
Arizona Cardinals record:
2018 (Wilks): 3-13
2019 (Kingsbury): 5-10-1
TRADE FOR DEANDRE HOPKINS
2020 (Kingsbury): 8-8
2021 (Kingsbury): 11-6. They lost the wild card round 34-11.
2022 (Kingsbury): 4-13
Hopkins released. Coach fired.
Dramatic improvement. No playoff wins, a coach fired, 1 playoff appearance and a release.
Nope, and I'm a fan of Terry McLaurin. I'm not going anywhere but QB with that #3 pick this season, because you don't get many shots. Now, if the Pats were sitting at #10, I might consider it, but I think there are multiple WR's in this draft that will end up better than McLaurin anyway.
And if that #3 pick turns out to be a good QB, those 1st and 2nds next year from Washington won't have nearly the same value as a #3 this year.
This Pats team would look a lot different had Bill taken Jawaan Taylor over N'Keal Harry and McLaurin over Joejuan Williams though.
Ah yes, a world where Sanu and Parker are JAGS and 2023 Cooks and Elijah Moore aren’t. Or perhaps you missed the context there.
Literally nobody is saying they’re great players so if that was your reading of my post, I’m not sure what to tell you. Sanu and Parker were brought in as upgrades to the WR unit and - outside of Hill, Brown and Diggs - are pretty much the typical NFL WR you can find in a trade comparable to most of the guys moved around the league.