I'd do 3/$66; 4/$80; or 5/90. Essentially, I'd pay $14 million for year 4, and $10 million for year 5, which is approximately what they paid Dempster for a 2 year deal with no upside potential.
and half of SOSH.JimD said:I'd love to see the Sox offer 4/$70, just to troll the media.
Minneapolis Millers said:This is [Shields] last good chance to land a big contract.
Pozo the Clown said:
While this may be true, so far, the market isn't giving it to him and time is growing short.
Trotsky said:I'm interested in Shields at something like what Plympton said upthread, but I have a feeling that we're going to see a great Sox pitching staff even if nothing changes from here on out. And as my feelings on things are always correct, Ben should stand pat.
Rasputin said:
I'm convinced the pitching is going to be better than people expect, but "great" seems like a reach. Good enough to go get a post season #1 at the deadline is, I think, the reasonable upside.
Of course, I'd love to be wrong.
nvalvo said:
Or maybe Rodriguez or Owens can perform the role of John Lackey, 2002.
Monbo Jumbo said:Steven Wright will have double-digit wins for the Red Sox in 2015.
Rasputin said:
I think it's asking a whole lot to have a guy who doesn't even project as an ace emerge as one in less than a full season of major league ball. I suppose it can happen, and I'd be delighted, but, well, yeah, I can't think it's likely.
Pozo the Clown said:
While this may be true, so far, the marketisn't giving it to himhasn't given it to him yet and time is growing short.
Monbo Jumbo said:Look at the ground ball rate of the pitchers they acquired.
Look at the ground ball rate of the Pawtucket pitchers who've moved on.
Look at the ground ball rate of last year's Pawtucket starter who they kept.
And yet - NO ONE, NO ONE, has Steven Wright penciled in as a starter.
Conventional wisdom, you can't build a rotation without true #1s (ideally 2 of them).
Conventional wisdom, you can't win in the NBA without a cluster of superstars.
The Red Sox are building the 2015 rotation like the NBA Hawks built their league leading roster.
Steven Wright will have double-digit wins for the Red Sox in 2015.
nvalvo said:
Rodriguez is the one I'm really bullish on, honestly.
Ditto. I've heard a great deal about Owens but its Rodriguez I'm waiting for.Rasputin said:
Me too, really. I don't want to put too much on his performance after he came over last year, but holy crap, and everything I read suggests it's a real adjustment and not just sss bullshit.
Minneapolis Millers said:Hey, for now, we don't have to choose between Owens and Rodriguez. We can eagerly anticipate the progression of both. Owens = Pettitte and Rodriguez = Kershaw. Add Betts = Joe Morgan, and we've got lots of prospect love to throw around...
gryoung said:
I've got this feeling that Brian Johnson is going to be the best of the batch.
gryoung said:
I've got this feeling that Brian Johnson is going to be the best of the batch.
Savin Hillbilly said:
One way to look at it: I like David Wells as a ceiling comp for Johnson--similar body, similar repertoire, both known for control more than stuff, both surfer dudes from beach towns. And if you ask which of our three LHP prospects has the best chance of being as good as Wells, the answer might well be Johnson. But Johnson's upside probably stops there (or perhaps even short of there) and the other guys' go a bit further.
Rudy Pemberton said:Isn't an upside of David Wells pretty damn good? I thought the knock on Johnson was that he had a low ceiling. Wells won 239 games, and threw 3400 innings at a 3.99 FIP.
Plympton91 said:Brian Johnson also has the highest probability of having a career like Kevin Morton. The love for his 2014 season is more than a little overblown. It's great that he put himself back on the radar, but it's hardly out-of-the-ordinary for a 23-year-old from a major college program to have a great season in AA.
I have the same criticism, argue that it was a step from mediocrity given the level of competition. He was a 22-year-old graduate of a major college program pitching in low-A; it was only for half a season; and he didn't even average 5 innings per start or a strikeout an inning. It's nice that he did well on batted ball results, but it's about as impressive as a 14-year-old with a fake birth certificate dominating the Little League World Series.Savin Hillbilly said:
I'm not sure what you mean by "back on the radar." He had a solid 2013; a few too many walks, but his batted ball results were excellent (6.4 H/9, 0.4 HR/9), his FIP was decent (3.48) and his ERA was fine (2.54). His 2014 was a step forward, but it wasn't a step forward from mediocrity.
To the bolded: he was a two way player in college. He was closer to being raw than he was a finished product. Also, he spent a few months after he graduated eating out of a straw because he was drilled in the face with a liner. I'm still not all that high on him, but it isn't for that reason.Plympton91 said:I have the same criticism, argue that it was a step from mediocrity given the level of competition. He was a 22-year-old graduate of a major college program pitching in low-A; it was only for half a season; and he didn't even average 5 innings per start or a strikeout an inning. It's nice that he did well on batted ball results, but it's about as impressive as a 14-year-old with a fake birth certificate dominating the Little League World Series.
His 2014 compares favorably to Casey Fossum's AA season in 2001 that had everyone in Boston drooling over him, once you adjust for BABIP. He had a few more walks than Casey, and a lot fewer strikeouts, in almost an identical number of innings. Even with the better strikeout rate, Fossum was never consistently successful in the big leagues.
Plympton91 said:His 2014 compares favorably to Casey Fossum's AA season in 2001 that had everyone in Boston drooling over him, once you adjust for BABIP. He had a few more walks than Casey, and a lot fewer strikeouts, in almost an identical number of innings. Even with the better strikeout rate, Fossum was never consistently successful in the big leagues.
I was mainly objecting to the two posters who said they thought that Johnson was 1) likely to have the best career among the Red Sox current crop of pitching prospects and 2) while not likely to have the best career, might be better than Owens and Rodriguez are right now. My point was that you can't base "who is the better pitcher right now" on the ERA of a 23 year old in AA.Savin Hillbilly said:
What's your point, though? Of course it's possible that Johnson will turn out no better than Fossum; in fact this is a much more likely outcome than that he'll be anywhere near as good as Wells. This could be said of most pitching prospects who haven't hit triple-A yet. Is anybody denying it?
Plympton91 said:I was mainly objecting to the two posters who said they thought that Johnson was 1) likely to have the best career among the Red Sox current crop of pitching prospects and 2) while not likely to have the best career, might be better than Owens and Rodriguez are right now. My point was that you can't base "who is the better pitcher right now" on the ERA of a 23 year old in AA.
TomRicardo said:
Better how? Brian Johnson is probably the most ready to pitch a major league game today. if i had my choice for a spot start I would probably go with Johnson. However Rodriguez and Owens have far more potential. Johnson at this point is what he probably going to be, an inning eating 4/5 starter who will keep you in most games.
Owens and Rodriguez have top of the rotation potential.
Rasputin said:
That is far from a universal opinion. Soxprospects.com says Owens has the ceiling of a high end third starter, and of Rodriguez that he has the ceiling of a #2 with a realistic projection of a 3 and mlb.com has something similar. There's obviously a chance they exceed those projections, but it's not like we have any reasonable expectation that these guys are going to be anything more than good, solid pitchers.
Of course, if we held ourselves to reasonable expectations, this place would get pretty boring in a hurry.
Plympton91 said:They keep saying on MLB radio that Shields really wants to pitch for a west coast team. That may be one reason why his market is low right now. If he opens up his horizons, it may reinflate, at least to the 4/$80 range.
Separate topic, I think people are underrating Owens because the velocity on his fastball is 89-92 rather than 92-95. I think his height will compensate for some of that, even if he doesn't add a couple mph or at least get more consistent around 91-92 as he further refines his mechanics.
If I had to choose someone among our prospects to start a game tomorrow, it would not be Brian Johnson. It would be Steven Wright (perforance), or Escobar (full year of AAA, 2 years younger than Johnson).
I'm not sure that Red Sox fans really overrate their prospects, it's just that it's really hard to project this stuff. Hanley, Pedroia, Lester all exceeded the more "reasonable" expectations of even their strongest supporters. Every player any of us suggested trading in a package for Johan Santana (Ellsbury? Lowrie? Buchholz? Masterson? Lester?) turned out to have at least pretty high performance peaks. Even guys like Nava and Reddick got to levels that I think most of us didn't foresee. On the other hand, you can have seasons like Boston got last year from Bradley and Bogaerts and Doubront and Workman and feel like they may have been overrated.Rasputin said:
Of course, if we held ourselves to reasonable expectations, this place would get pretty boring in a hurry.
I think you are in a huge majority here. 3/50 is peanuts for a guy like Shields. Even if he regresses big time, 16.5 million a year is a contract that is easily absorbed. Especially for only 3 years.foulkehampshire said:May be in the minority here, but I'd absolutely jump on 3/50 (ish) for Shields.
foulkehampshire said:May be in the minority here, but I'd absolutely jump on 3/50 (ish) for Shields. Would really bring the needed consistency that this rotation lacks. Only Porcello, Miley, and Masterson have a reasonable chance of making 30+ starts. Masterson might be regulated to the bullpen if the platoon issues continue to plague him.
He's not an ace, but theoretically the price has dropped enough that the Sox wouldn't have to pay him like one. At worst Shields is an innings eating mid-rotation guy.
nvalvo said:
starting with Buchholz, who's a decent King Felix impersonator when he has his act together
The biggest reason why his BABIP was so high was due to the Hard pitches. Even though the Hard pitches had a high BABIP he didn’t allow a lot of hard contact as evidenced by normal slugging percentage.
Last year he continued to throw Hard pitches down in the zone so it’s counter-intuitive because keeping the ball down in the zone is one of the most effective ways to be successful. If he kept the ball down then why was his BABIP so high?
He’s thrown Hard pitches down in the zone at the same clip for the past three seasons, but his BABIP shot up immensely which indicates he was extremely unlucky last year.
soxhop411 said:
Buster Olney @Buster_ESPN 34m34 minutes ago
One official involved in the Shields bidding does not expect the final numbers will be as high as $80 million/4 yrs. We'll see.
Seems like if they did have the highest it would be over, so agreed. I think I'm still in the minority, but I'd gobble him up at this price. 220+ quality innings is nothing to sneeze at.snowmanny said:Reading the mlbtraderumors summary, it may very well be that he wants to play in San Diego, but the Padres don't have the highest offer. So it could still work out.
Of course David Wells wanted to pitch in San Diego, but went to Boston because the offer was higher and then spent the whole time being pissed off he wasn't in San Diego.
He’s thrown Hard pitches down in the zone at the same clip for the past three seasons, but his BABIP shot up immensely which indicates he was extremely unlucky last year.