Right now, the Red Sox are committed to seven players for approx. $133.9mm in AAV (Price (31.0), Sale (25.6), Eovaldi (17.0), JDM (22.0, if no opt-out), Bogaerts (20.0), Pedroia (13.8), Vazquez (4.5)) in 2021.
In addition, the Red Sox will have approx $24mm in 40-man costs, medical benefits, etc. (using @redsoxpayroll's spreadsheet).
So, before accounting for free agents and arb players, the Red Sox would be at approx $158mm with six players on the 25-man accounted for, plus Pedroia.
ERod (arb4), Barnes (arb3), Benintendi (arb2) and Devers (arb1) could easily run $25-30mm. Assuming $30mm, the Red Sox are now at $188mm with 10 players (plus Pedroia) committed for 2021.
There is no chance to re-sign Mookie, keep Price (who will be a 10/5 guy after the season) and JDM and stay below the luxury tax threshold in 2021.
Totally agreed on JBJ, I was shocked he wasn't non-tendered or traded. They'd be $14mm above the threshold (less the cost of his replacement) and trading Price and eating half of his salary would have put the team just below the threshold.