Ben Volin: We Have Questions, He Has Answers
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Question on the Solder response: As someone on here (can't remember who) pointed out to me last week, isn't that contract only guaranteed for injury until the first day of the '15 league year?
Cutting Vollmer given the state of the O-line and the $$ involved seems crazy to me as of today, but what do I know.
Cutting Vollmer given the state of the O-line and the $$ involved seems crazy to me as of today, but what do I know.
I dont get the Vollmer cut either. Based on their play thus far this year, I dont see how Vollmer is cut with a $6M cap but they decide to keep Solder and his $7.4M hit around. And while I'm sure they arent happy with the current amount of talent they have on the line, I really cant see them flipping virtually the entire starting line in a year, that would have some real disaster potential.
Love the Belichick story. "Bill is a normal and pleasant guy to be around when he’s not in a press conference setting. What he does on the podium is mostly an act." It seems like most football writers don't get this.
I third the doubts. I think Volin's reading too much into the Fleming pick. Cannon was basically as high a pick (Fleming was a 4th; Cannon was a 5th but was also going to miss most of his rookie year with lymphoma) and they were happy just to use him as a 3rd tackle the past couple seasons. If Vollmer is healthy I expect he sticks around, though he has had injury issues and will be 31 this time next year (he was an old rookie at 25). Volin's point that they can cut him financially might come into play if he gets hurt again.wutang112878 said:
That is not a common opinion in the NE sports media and I think Volin deserves credit for stating it as plainly as he does. The QB has to work with the players available; too much of this round-peg, square-hole stuff going on. They don't all come without sharp edges, Tom.
Is the suggestion that Tom just burns guys because they have let him down in the past? If so, that is the second time I've heard that here in less than a week, and I find it quite remarkable. The guy is gunning for an historic 4th ring, and time is running out. Personal pique has him bringing knives to a gunfight rather than hitting open receivers?soxfan121 said:
Couldn't the problem as easily be the offense the Pats choose to run? Cause you are right, they have had some head scratching failures with vets who did reasonably well elsewhere.
Think it's one of the benefits of a guy coming in from the outside as Volin did from the Dolphins (nice read on that dynamic with Game 1 as well). Fresher perspective on things guys who grew up w Brady and Belichick might not otherwise bring up – ie, does Brady bear some of the blame for his crummy receivers? Is BB's podium schtick an act? He's not the only guy to ask these questions but he's probably the only one to actually try to get answers to them.soxfan121 said:
Im not sure its a Brady problem as much as an offensive system problem, I dont think Brady is changing his progressions or not throwing to open guys as much as it is the offense calling plays that feature the guys Brady is comfortable with (how much to attribute to Brady is open to question). Integrating new receivers has been a problem in the past, but nearly always in the context of having an awesome overall offense (built on good offensive lines) which made it pretty defensible, IMO, not to dumb down the system to support one or two guys that weren't able to grasp the program. Its not like the guys that haven't fit in here have left and gone on to do awesome things elsewhere, so it doesn't seem to me they've been wasting real top end talent even if they havent squeezed the max out of 2nd-tier receivers.soxfan121 said:
All that said, this year seems like it might be a different beast. I had much lower expectations for this season for Wright than many of the posters here (and he only played 5 snaps Sunday) but If 2/3 of receiving corps and TE's can't grasp or don't fit into the offense correctly and the team is last in the NFL in Yards Per Play, then yeah, it getting to that time where they might need to make some changes to the scheme and think about dumbing it down a bit rather than jamming square pegs into round holes.
Now, maybe they're already trying to do that (they've scaled way back on no huddle the last two years). Maybe they've decided that there's more upside to struggling through now in the hope that the lightswitch comes on later this season. Maybe the offensive line is just so terrible that its wrecking everything and making the receivers look bad. Maybe Brady is just washed up. Hard to say from the outside. But if the reason guys like Amendola and Dobson aren't getting snaps and aren't producing when they do is because they can't figure out the perfect adjustment to different coverage looks and they haven't tried to just simplify the scheme, we're approaching the point where trying to simplify and tailor the offense more to their strengths isn't a bad idea.
soxfan121 said:
Someone should have followed up with the question of why Volin trashes Amendola in print every chance he gets. He was relentless all of last year and already this. If Amendola can catch 85 passes from Sam Fucking Bradford, why the hell can't Brady work with the guy?
I remain absolutely convinced that on this issue, the problem is the QB.
Super Nomario said:
Solid point on the draft position because the chances of finding an above average starting Tackle with a 4th round pick is pretty slim, and I'm sure the Pats realize this. So its not as if the Pats are really tied down to him, and Boyce is a great example of them moving on from a 4th rounder pretty quickly.
This brings up some interesting issues. I couldnt agree more on the dumb it down stuff. Historically we have had a very difficult time getting receivers integrated into the system. We can do it when guys are really talented (ie Moss, Welker, Gronk, Hernandez, Branch) but we have a very difficult time integrating 3rd and 4th receivers on the depth chart. And the issue is very rarely talent related (ie dropsies or inability to create separation) its generally more about understanding the system and getting on the same page as Brady with the option reads.
Bringing this back to Brady, this offensive strategy stuff just isnt his call, so he tends to just throw to guys who he is confident in. Take the Steve Maneri pick, because he wants to minimize those he basically shuts out some receivers. If anything this should really be something thats somewhat admirable because obviously a turnover is more costly than an incomplete pass. So I'm just not sure what else Brady can do here. If the critique is really that he needs to get receivers to learn better in this system, then thats ridiculous because that critique and responsibility is really on the offensive coordinator.
Figure out how to spread the ball around to established NFL receivers. Fucking Cam Newton could get some productivity out of LaFell but Brady can't?Super Nomario said:
Stitch01 said:
I'm not sure if this affects our perception of the issue but there have been some epic failures. Take Donald Hayes who literally admitted he just couldnt figure out the playbook. Chad Johnson went from 67 catches in Cincy to hardly being trusted enough to get snaps. Joey Galloway gave me one of my most favorite Brady moments the lip-reading 'It isnt that F**king Hard' shot of him on the sideline. And Ben Watson actually went on to have 3 really great years that were all better than anything he did here once he left for Cleveland. Then for some guys like Chad Jackson we can consider that a 'its so difficult to hit on WR draft picks anyway' but they guy was completely clueless and really had his confidence completely ruined which really makes me wonder if he went to a team with a very simple system there is a good chance that he wouldnt be a complete flop.
The weird thing about Amendola is that they threw to him last year - 88 targets in 400 pass routes (22%), almost the same rate they've thrown to Edelman so far this year (28 in 129, 21.7%). But Amendola is really undertargeted this year relative to the number of routes he's run - just 7 targets in 84 routes (8.3%). Is that Amendola, or Brady, or how defenses are defending Amendola, or a conscious decision to use him as a decoy? I have no idea. He has had three targets / catches wiped out by OPI penalties.Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
They're throwing to LaFell (14 targets in 65 routes, a 21.5% rate that's almost identical to Edelman's) - the issue is effectiveness, as Brady went 0/6 throwing to him against Miami. The Brady/LaFell connection was 4 of 7 last week, so this just seems like an early season SSS issue.Shelterdog said:
To be clear: Brady is overfocusing on one receiver: Gronk (23 targets in just 66 routes, 34.9%). As noted above, he hasn't thrown to Amendola much. Other than that, he's spreading the targets around really evenly. Maybe too evenly.
Johnson, Hayes, Galloway, and Jackson basically never did anything, so I don't think they're good examples. As for Watson, his 2010 in Cleveland was basically the same as his 2006 in NE, and his 2011 and 2012 seasons were basically the same as his 2005 and 2007 (and not as good as 2006). I disagree with your assessment that he "went on to have 3 really great years that were all better than anything he did" with the Pats. By my reckoning, he was basically the same player from 2005 - 2012, with the exception of a productivity drop in 2008 playing with Cassel.wutang112878 said:
It's not just the rate stats that matter though: the fact that LaFell Dobson and Thompkins aren't getting to run a lot of routes (collectively 130, only one more than Edelman) is a problem.
I'm not sure that's a problem in and of itself, but even if it is, I have a hard time putting that on Brady.Shelterdog said:
Pretty much none of those guys except for Watson were productive after they left here, and its not like Watson was useless here or turned into an all pro when he left. Im not saying they couldn't have gotten more out of those players, but a) those offenses were generally really productive even with those failures and b) its not likely they were wasting away the next Randy Moss or even the next Deion Branch given all those players dropped off the NFL map after leaving.wutang112878 said:
Joey Galloway caught a wopping 12 passes after his New England playing days. Doug Gabriel caught 5 after he was picked up by Oakland late in the 2006 season, and never played another down. Chad Johnson and Donald Hayes combined for zero catches after leaving New England. Brandon Lloyd was about to join that same club had he not a 5 yard pass last Sunday. Bottom line is that all of these guys were essentially done by the time they got to NE; wide receivers can lose it very quickly, especially when there are other, more enticing targets to throw the ball to.
I also dispute the contention that Brady/Belichick have difficulty integrating the 3rd or 4th receivers. They had no problem with Jabar Gaffney and Donte Stallworth in 2007. The reality is that there are only so many passes to be caught; and over the years a decent percentage of those passes were targeted to tight ends (Gronk/AH) or running backs (Faulk, Woodhead). So the 4th receiver is not going to see a lot of balls barring injury to the starters.
However, I do think the questions regarding Amendola and LaFell (and Wright to a lesser extent) are valid. I'm not in the "it's all Brady's fault" camp, as from what I've seen there's been plenty of blame to go around: OL, the receivers, and Brady. And 3 games is still a relatively small sample. There is the old adage that the first 3rd of the season is to see what you have, the second 3rd to improve upon it, and the final 3rd to perfect what you have going into the playoffs. Which means we'll know a lot more about what this team is made of in about 2 games, then we'll see if the coach and GM are able to make the necessary adjustments mid season. But I don't see them suddenly "dumbing down" the offense just because Ben Volin thinks they should.
I also dispute the contention that Brady/Belichick have difficulty integrating the 3rd or 4th receivers. They had no problem with Jabar Gaffney and Donte Stallworth in 2007. The reality is that there are only so many passes to be caught; and over the years a decent percentage of those passes were targeted to tight ends (Gronk/AH) or running backs (Faulk, Woodhead). So the 4th receiver is not going to see a lot of balls barring injury to the starters.
However, I do think the questions regarding Amendola and LaFell (and Wright to a lesser extent) are valid. I'm not in the "it's all Brady's fault" camp, as from what I've seen there's been plenty of blame to go around: OL, the receivers, and Brady. And 3 games is still a relatively small sample. There is the old adage that the first 3rd of the season is to see what you have, the second 3rd to improve upon it, and the final 3rd to perfect what you have going into the playoffs. Which means we'll know a lot more about what this team is made of in about 2 games, then we'll see if the coach and GM are able to make the necessary adjustments mid season. But I don't see them suddenly "dumbing down" the offense just because Ben Volin thinks they should.
2007 is a looooooong time and an original ACL ago; bringing up Gaff and Stallworth as guys they had no trouble getting into the offense really doesn't help clarify the picture now.
Brandon Lloyd had 74 catches for 911 yards in his one season here; it's pretty well known he simply didn't want to play football last year due to whatever and sat out a year.
My guess is that Brady is older, he's no longer as comfortable in the pocket as he used to be due to age, injury and OL changes, and thus looks to the easy/primary target on every pass play and never really tries to get the ball to the other guys. And since Edelman is running many of the same routes that Brady's binky Welker once did, he's getting a disproportionate number of the targets.
Danny Amendola can play football, of that I have little doubt. Anyone who puts up big numbers catching passes from Bradford can play. Similarly with LaFell, although to a lesser extent. Brady should understand that by now. If he can't get the ball to those guys, then that's on him.
Brandon Lloyd had 74 catches for 911 yards in his one season here; it's pretty well known he simply didn't want to play football last year due to whatever and sat out a year.
My guess is that Brady is older, he's no longer as comfortable in the pocket as he used to be due to age, injury and OL changes, and thus looks to the easy/primary target on every pass play and never really tries to get the ball to the other guys. And since Edelman is running many of the same routes that Brady's binky Welker once did, he's getting a disproportionate number of the targets.
Danny Amendola can play football, of that I have little doubt. Anyone who puts up big numbers catching passes from Bradford can play. Similarly with LaFell, although to a lesser extent. Brady should understand that by now. If he can't get the ball to those guys, then that's on him.
Super Nomario said:
Playing lots of guys isn't inherently a problem but playing lots of guys and failing to get productivity out of most of them is a problem.
I frankly think it is easy to put some of the blame on Brady. He's an experienced guy, as far as we know his word carries a lot of weight, and he's active in creating the game plan. I've also been looking for the fairly recent quote he had where he said if he doesn't have confidence in you he won't look towards you in a game. To put it differently, if he did feel good about his relationship with any of Amendola/Dobson/Thompkins/LaFell don't you think that player would be consistently getting time and targets?
Joey Galloway, Ochi Cinco, and Donald Hayes were just as irrelevant as examples.Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
I think you're understating the OL changes. The Raiders run defense was gashed for 2 straight games, and the Pats OL barely made a single hole for the RB's all game. That's not on Brady.
I agree with you that Amendola is a skilled receiver. He may not be Welker; and he may or may not be as good as Edelman. Even last season, despite missing 4 games and having Brady throwing him the ball, Amendola had pretty much his career numbers in terms of catches, yards, and YPC (career best in the last category). He may not have been targeted as much as in 2012 when he was the #1 WR with the Rams, but I think most of us would be happy with him being a solid #2 on this team. Which is really all they need from him right now.
The fact that it's not happening is a mystery. I'm inclined to put some of that on Brady, but I think we need to see a few more games to truly know if it's all Brady, 90% Brady, or 10% Brady.
I like that he's willing to say what we all know - that there's no way the Ravens didn't know exactly what was on the elevator tapes within a very short period of time after Janay got coldcocked.
For sure. The non-Edelman productivity (including Gronkowski) has been a serious problem. But I don't know that the playing time itself is a problem.Shelterdog said:
I don't think Brady is active in creating the game plan, and I don't have any reason to believe he has any input in how much these guys play.Shelterdog said:
Edelman / Amendola / Thompkins / Dobson were the team's top four receivers in terms of pass routes last year, and all returned - but they added LaFell anyway, a player who we would reasonably expect to play a lot (certainly more than Boyce, who finished 5th last year with 128 routes). Presumably they saw something in LaFell that caused them to pursue him in the offseason despite all the guys coming back, but it was and is an open question how the playing time would shake out. I suspect we would have seen some kind of rotation even if the offense were running smoothly. Obviously if Brady-to-Dobson looked like Brady-to-Moss 2.0 in practice, he'd be playing all the time, but I don't see any particular reason to blame that on Brady as opposed to blaming it on Dobson's foot injury hampering him during the offseason / preseason.Shelterdog said:
Stitch01 said:
I really didnt explain my point well, I was looking at the other side of the coin with Johnson, Galloway and Hayes who were guys who had established some career norms and then were absolutely unproductive here and I dont think its all because of physical decline. Johnson was declining, absolutely, but he went from ~1,000 yards to ~800 yards his last 2 years in Cincy and then <300 here and the biggest thing that was holding him back, that I saw, was that he couldnt get snaps because he wasnt trusted to do the right thing. Galloway and the 'it isnt that f**king hard' really illustrates the root of his struggles, another guy who physically wasnt what he was but simply couldnt be trusted to run the right routes. And Hayes was utterly clueless after having ~900 and ~600 yards his last 2 years in Carolina, at the tender age of 27 he had 133 yards in his one year here.
You have a great point that the offenses were really productive because they were able to do it without elite talent, so they could take a David Givens and turn him into a good WR. But my point with these guys is that they fundamentally could not grasp the offense while they were here and instead of a slow decline in productivity they absolutely fell off a cliff.
Super Nomario said:
Shame on me with Watson, this should teach me to multi-task and post while I am on a conference call. I was looking at 'Targets' and like an idiot thought they were receptions. Mea culpa.
There is no Rev said:
Yes and no. Yes in the sense that Brady is absolutely involved with the strategy and game planning. But, ultimately this responsibility has to go to the offensive coordinator and Bill. For all we know Brady could be lobbying them to dumb down the offense to help integrate these guys and maybe thats part of the reason he looks so frustrated when his receivers arent where he expects them to be, but thats complete conjecture on my part.
Its sort of like a structure where the coach reports to the GM and we want to lay some blame on the coach for poor draft choices. I'm sure there is some blame that should go towards the coach in that situation, but ultimately those picks are the GM's call. Brady reports to McDaniels and in that structure all the coaches decisions are solely McDaniels responsibility even if Brady is given input.
Super Nomario said:
This baffles me this year. All the reports in camp last year were that Amendola 'got it' and quickly earned Brady's trust, and it was evident on the field but this year its as if that never happened. For whatever reason, Amendola and Edelman dont compliment each other on the field. I used Doug Kyed's snap data to crunch these numbers but with Amendola and Edelman on the field they had 36 completions on 67 attempts for 280 yards, 2 TDs and 4.2 yards per attempt. When Edelman is on the field and Amendola is not: 27 completions on 40 attempts for 293 yards, 1 TD and 7.3 yards per attempt. Granted thats not a huge sample, but considering what Amendola seemed to bring last year I'm really surprised that things are worse when he shares the field with Edelman and I cant think of a logical reason as to why.
Stitch01 said:
You're 100% correct. I'm shocked Volin isn't aware of that. If Solder plays like this all year I wouldn't be surprised if they decline the option and let him test the market.
I guess that's true, I meant releasing him after the season would be functionally the same as never having picked up the option. Doubt it will come to that. He's been a good tackle for several years which suggests the problems are fixable.
Depends how nice BB is feeling regarding testing the market because I believe none of his money kicks in until day 1 of the regular season. In which case, it would probably be more prudent to at least see what happens at camp/preseason.mpx42 said:
It's also been 3 games with a new unit so we're probably all overreacting.
Since this has seemingly turned into the WTF is wrong with the offense thread, I"ll ask if the offense is running a lot less screens this year than years past. I don't know where to find this but I assume this is charted somewhere and at least to the eye test they seem to be running a lot less screens to both WR and TE/RB's this year. This is something that has been a staple of this offense for the last several years so I'm really curious if this is the case and if so what is contributing to it.
j44thor said:
Screens that require OL to get out and block seem to be at least 102. The line hasn't shown it can pass 101, yet.
WR screens are a different story and you might be onto something there but the reason for less RB/TE screens is pretty obvious.
soxfan121 said:
I'm not so sure. Thus far the line has looked excellent at letting rushers go right past them, so they have the first part of the play down!
j44thor said:
I'm not sure about the number of screens they've been running, but - as SF121 alluded to - the blocking is part of the problem here. Dan Connolly is actually pretty good at the screen process (engaging in initial block, being able to disengage quickly and get up in front of the play), but Devey is putrid at it. I haven't actually seen any breakdowns of screens to the left side (not to say they haven't gone there, but I haven't rewatched all the gamefilm), but I would assume Cannon is poor at it as well. He has enough trouble even getting to the second level and finding a man to block, let alone getting out in front on a screen.
PFF doesn't track designed screens per se, but they have 15 of 115 pass attempts so far targeted behind the line of scrimmage (13.0%) versus 73 in 691 last year (10.6%).j44thor said:
I didn't exclude those from the number of total passes, but it does appear PFF strips those out from their directed passes grid, as they have just one of the behind-the-LOS passes falling incomplete in 2014.JerBear said:
All kinda ties into a thread I started a bit ago.
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/85635-learning-the-playbook-teach-me/
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/85635-learning-the-playbook-teach-me/