What It hink is being missed is what I like to call the "Nate Duncan fallacy" which is that all teams are the same in goals and situation and style at all points in time . That makes for easy analysis of the league and any team, but it's regularly off when you think it through against a specific team at a specific point in time given their real market situation and ownership preferences. So sure, in the abstract from the perspective of a big market team who wants to win a title you don't want to trade for Simmons unless he's the missing piece for a title. But that profile doesn't fit everyone, and the variance is where the opportunity is likely to lie for Morey.
No, that's not what's going on here. Simmons is a very unique player, which makes him
incredibly difficult to build around. What we're doing is trying to find teams where he can be the dominant offensive player without being required to score. There are
very few teams that he fits into easily. While many cellar dwellers would roll the dice on him, they don't have anything that Philly wants. So deals just don't work there. (Keep in mind last year when Philly was trying to get Harden without including Simmons (a moronic decision to be sure) I had said that Simmons best use for Houston would be being sent to OKC to get their draft picks back with a pick or two thrown in.)
I agree with you WBCD---and also agree with you the MPJ contract demonstrates the same. MPJ is at least as flawed a player overall as Simmons (thought their flaws are wildly different, nearly opposite) and just got the same contract.
He got the same contract in theory only. Denver made him a designated deal in order to sign him to a five year contract, but unless he makes All NBA or All D (I have better odds of winning tonight's Powerball than MPJ does of making either squad) then he's getting a 25% Max deal, not Simmons 30%.
I also posted an article (earlier) that in the playoffs, opposing teams shot 57% from 3P when MPJ was "guarding" the shooter.
He's definitely on the wrong squad. In an alternate universe where Boston doesn't make the Kyrie deal and picks Porter over SGA (which we can all agree doesn't likely happen as SGA is a Danny wet dream) Porter is playing the 4/5 for Boston. And mostly the C spot. Then despite the defensive issues Boston is bombing the opposition to death. In Denver, paired with Jokic, the defensive problems are multiplied. Combined with Murray they need to win games the Doug Moe way. (For you young'uns Moe was the guy that once answered the question about his squad being the worst defensive team in the NBA, "Were not the worst defensive team in the league, our opponents are.")
Honestly they'd be best served trying to find a third team to work out a deal where Jokic is outbound and Simmons inbound and use BS and MPJ as the interchangeable 4/5 combo. Porter's not designed for perimeter D (
really long legs and, as a result, a
really high center of gravity, married to very stiff hips), he belongs at the five anyway. Not that his backline defense would be a lot better, but having a center that can bomb like that basically renders guys like Gobert useless.
If you figure, for cap and value purposes, you start with Dejounte Murray and add in contracts (Aminu/Poeltl?) and a pick or two do you get there? I think that's not enough for Philly---do they need to add in Vassell? Johnson? It's not going to be Morey's ideal answer and you worry a bit that to give enough to Philly you hollow out the roster to a worrisome degree. Guess I'm not sure I see it in the end.
San Antonio definitely makes sense as a Simmons destination, from the Spurs POV. From Philly's POV it's a little rougher unless they
really believe in Vassell going forward. The Spurs have
a lot of roleplayers on that roster. So they'd probably need to empty the pick bank to make a deal work.
Regarding the posts about different teams having different goals, I was going to ask if with Simmons part of the issue is whether he is simply a better regular season player than he is a playoff player. But I suppose that comes down to fit as well: that his role might be different in the playoffs but that might not matter depending on who else is out there with him.
Simmons is definitely more a regular season player than playoff one. Once defense tightens up he morphs into a defensive roleplayer. An elite one to be sure, but it does tend to set a bound on where your team can get to.
Simmons isn't Giannis, but you can use him similarly. ... I do think Simmons can demand doubles/rotations just because he's such a mismatch, guys can't guard him, so if you don't double he's gonna score. Now some teams may just let him score, but then he's still probably putting 25/8/7 on you every night. I mean, it's telling that everyone KNOWs he's going to get inside 10ft before he shoots, everyone plays him that way... an he still is putting up .560-.580 eFG% every year.
Simmons barely commands a single team, much less a double. When everyone knows that you won't shoot outside the paint they just wall off the interior. This forces Embiid to move further away from the rim in order to create passing angles for Simmons.
Simmons does not demand double-teams. Physically he would be a mismatch for most opponents given his size and the relative size of Philly in general compared to typical NBA teams, but he doesn't command double-teams because he isn't an aggressive scorer and never has been in the NBA. I don't think that changes if he stops sharing the floor with Embiid. The reason he doesn't score a lot of points, only shoots inside ten feet and puts up a solid eFG% is because he only shoots the ball when he has a lot of confidence that it is going in, to the detriment of his own team.
I mean his playoff panic attack while sitting alone underneath the basket speaks worlds about where his head is at.