I thought this was worth it's own thread as it's a bit more specific and there is plenty of content to chew on. This chat was done on Feb 20th. It does not appear to be premium content, so I'm posting every Red Sox tidbit I saw. If I'm mistaken on that front, please let me know and I'll cull the list of questions a bit.
Kevin (NC): Why is Henry Owens so low? he was pretty lights out last year and I expected to see him in top 20-25
John Manuel: Some readers have asked, “Why is Owens so high?” Just read the scouting report or look at the tools, Kevin; he doesn’t have tremendous velocity, his breaking ball is shaky . . . he’s as high as he is because of his deception and the success he has had. From a stuff standpoint, he doesn’t really grade out as high as he ranks now, and definitely does not grade out in the 20-25 range. That said, he keeps getting outs; that’s why he’s in the Top 50. But Owens and Brian Johnson, also of the Red Sox, were two of the more divisive guys on the entire Top 100 for us.
Paul (Boston MA): I see Yoan Moncada was #10 on the MLB network special last night, but is not present on this version. Which is correct? Also where would you have ranked Hector Olivera?
John Manuel: Both are correct. Moncada and Olivera are not signed with clubs right now, so we did not include either one in the Top 100 that’s on the site. But the show on MLB Network was just that, a TV show, and including Moncada on the list—because of a long list of questions like this one—made it a better TV show. If we had thought of it sooner, we would have included Olivera in the show as well, and Ben Badler and JJ Cooper discussed this in a video we recorded yesterday. As soon as we figure out how to get that online, it will be online … But for me, Olivera would go ahead of Alex Jackson and just behind Kyle Schwarber. He’s clearly better, for me, than Rusney Castillo, and Olivera is the most big-league ready player of any of the Cuban freer agents. He ranked No. 11 on our Top 20 list of World Baseball Classic prospects back in 2009, one of our favorite and best-ever prospect lists. http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/majors/international-affairs/world-baseball-classic/2009/267914.html
Ryan (Boston MA): I'm confused how Castillo ranked above Owens on this list, yet the reverse was true on your Boston top 30 list in the handbook?
John Manuel: Sorry we’re having some technical Internet issues here slowing us down a bit … Alex Speier did our Red Sox list and did a bang-up job with it as he has the last 2 years. We try to be very faithful to those lists at the top of the list, esp. with No. 1 prospects. But we’re not a monolith; we have many opinions in the office that we synthesize, and they don’t all agree. So there are going to be some inconsistencies. This is all informed opinion, so Alex can like Owens more and the rest of us can like Castillo more. It’s not too hard to figure out; they are baseball players and people don’t always see them the same way. Owens is much younger, but to me Castillo has better tools that will play right now in the major leagues. I like him a lot.
Franco (Boston): Assuming you need to package some of the young pitcher for a front line starter, who would you want to keep? Owens, Rodriguez, Barnes or Johnson?
John Manuel: I’d keep Rodriguez but I have been high man on him for a couple of years. It’s close between him and Owens, and Rodriguez’s struggles the first two-thirds of last year does give me pause. I like how he finished after the trade, saw him throw very well in the Triple-A playoffs after seeing him struggle a bit in 2013 in the Arizona Fall league and like the development of his three-pitch mix. He’s a legit power lefty. Owens is more of a unique guy, almost a Bumgarner look in terms of the delivery and deception, but his fastball doesn’t have that late life like Bumgarner’s. It is hard to ignore Owens’ performance track record but I prefer Rodriguez.
Tyler (Canada): Who from the bottom half of the top 100 could you see making a huge jump into the top 25 next year?
Ben Badler: Orlando Arcia, Ryan McMahon and Manuel Margot all have the potential to make that leap.
Mike (DE): Who has the best changeup in this class?
Ben Badler: Henry Owens’ changeup is pretty filthy. It’s part of what makes his otherwise average-ish velocity play up for swings and misses because hitters know they have to stay back for the changeup, and they still can’t hit it. I’d put Luis Severino into that discussion as well.
James (Boston, Ma): who has the higher ceiling between red sox prospects Manuel Margot and Rafael Devers?
Ben Badler: Margot. And I’ve been the biggest Rafael Devers fan for a while, but Margot gives you a good OBP and solid power from a center fielder with the chance to be a plus defender at a premium position.
Sam (Boston): Last season a ton of top prospects who put up big minor league numbers fell flat in the majors: Baez, Bogarts, Polanco, Singleton, Hamilton, Pederson, Odor, just off the top of my head. Which have the best chance of making the leap in 2015?
Matt Eddy: I would expect talent to win out for Bogaerts, Odor and Polanco in 2015. All three gained valuable MLB experience last year and have the hitting approach to thrive in today’s game of extreme SO/BB ratios.
Kevin (NC): Why is Henry Owens so low? he was pretty lights out last year and I expected to see him in top 20-25
John Manuel: Some readers have asked, “Why is Owens so high?” Just read the scouting report or look at the tools, Kevin; he doesn’t have tremendous velocity, his breaking ball is shaky . . . he’s as high as he is because of his deception and the success he has had. From a stuff standpoint, he doesn’t really grade out as high as he ranks now, and definitely does not grade out in the 20-25 range. That said, he keeps getting outs; that’s why he’s in the Top 50. But Owens and Brian Johnson, also of the Red Sox, were two of the more divisive guys on the entire Top 100 for us.
Paul (Boston MA): I see Yoan Moncada was #10 on the MLB network special last night, but is not present on this version. Which is correct? Also where would you have ranked Hector Olivera?
John Manuel: Both are correct. Moncada and Olivera are not signed with clubs right now, so we did not include either one in the Top 100 that’s on the site. But the show on MLB Network was just that, a TV show, and including Moncada on the list—because of a long list of questions like this one—made it a better TV show. If we had thought of it sooner, we would have included Olivera in the show as well, and Ben Badler and JJ Cooper discussed this in a video we recorded yesterday. As soon as we figure out how to get that online, it will be online … But for me, Olivera would go ahead of Alex Jackson and just behind Kyle Schwarber. He’s clearly better, for me, than Rusney Castillo, and Olivera is the most big-league ready player of any of the Cuban freer agents. He ranked No. 11 on our Top 20 list of World Baseball Classic prospects back in 2009, one of our favorite and best-ever prospect lists. http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/majors/international-affairs/world-baseball-classic/2009/267914.html
Ryan (Boston MA): I'm confused how Castillo ranked above Owens on this list, yet the reverse was true on your Boston top 30 list in the handbook?
John Manuel: Sorry we’re having some technical Internet issues here slowing us down a bit … Alex Speier did our Red Sox list and did a bang-up job with it as he has the last 2 years. We try to be very faithful to those lists at the top of the list, esp. with No. 1 prospects. But we’re not a monolith; we have many opinions in the office that we synthesize, and they don’t all agree. So there are going to be some inconsistencies. This is all informed opinion, so Alex can like Owens more and the rest of us can like Castillo more. It’s not too hard to figure out; they are baseball players and people don’t always see them the same way. Owens is much younger, but to me Castillo has better tools that will play right now in the major leagues. I like him a lot.
Franco (Boston): Assuming you need to package some of the young pitcher for a front line starter, who would you want to keep? Owens, Rodriguez, Barnes or Johnson?
John Manuel: I’d keep Rodriguez but I have been high man on him for a couple of years. It’s close between him and Owens, and Rodriguez’s struggles the first two-thirds of last year does give me pause. I like how he finished after the trade, saw him throw very well in the Triple-A playoffs after seeing him struggle a bit in 2013 in the Arizona Fall league and like the development of his three-pitch mix. He’s a legit power lefty. Owens is more of a unique guy, almost a Bumgarner look in terms of the delivery and deception, but his fastball doesn’t have that late life like Bumgarner’s. It is hard to ignore Owens’ performance track record but I prefer Rodriguez.
Tyler (Canada): Who from the bottom half of the top 100 could you see making a huge jump into the top 25 next year?
Ben Badler: Orlando Arcia, Ryan McMahon and Manuel Margot all have the potential to make that leap.
Mike (DE): Who has the best changeup in this class?
Ben Badler: Henry Owens’ changeup is pretty filthy. It’s part of what makes his otherwise average-ish velocity play up for swings and misses because hitters know they have to stay back for the changeup, and they still can’t hit it. I’d put Luis Severino into that discussion as well.
James (Boston, Ma): who has the higher ceiling between red sox prospects Manuel Margot and Rafael Devers?
Ben Badler: Margot. And I’ve been the biggest Rafael Devers fan for a while, but Margot gives you a good OBP and solid power from a center fielder with the chance to be a plus defender at a premium position.
Sam (Boston): Last season a ton of top prospects who put up big minor league numbers fell flat in the majors: Baez, Bogarts, Polanco, Singleton, Hamilton, Pederson, Odor, just off the top of my head. Which have the best chance of making the leap in 2015?
Matt Eddy: I would expect talent to win out for Bogaerts, Odor and Polanco in 2015. All three gained valuable MLB experience last year and have the hitting approach to thrive in today’s game of extreme SO/BB ratios.
