Arsenal 2015-2016: The One That Got Away

blueguitar322

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Completely undeserved win. The midfield in particular was never able to take control of the game, and Newcastle had by far the better chances (at least until Koscielny's goal against the run of play). Cech was MOTM and it's not particularly close.

Now Arsenal have a full week to rest and recover before hosting Sunderland in the FA Cup. 9/12 points over the holidays (including the City game) is actually a pretty decent outcome.

Still optimistic about title chances, but mostly because there simply aren't any world class teams in the PL this year. But of course a lot depends on getting injured players back and keeping healthy players healthy.
 
To be honest I wasn't that impressed with the Bournemouth win, either. But I do feel as though Arsenal's first priority at the moment is to just hang on and accumulate as many points as they can before reinforcements arrive from the treatment table and/or the transfer market. Now, if Watford can get a result against Man City...
 

sachmoney

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I don't disagree with the assessment that they're waiting for guys, namely Sanchez, to come back. I feel like a guy like Ramsey is playing through something and may be picked up another knock. There were reports that he was checking in with the medical staff during warmups before one of the games last week. The guy is playing out of necessity and through pain, and you've got to admire that. He's been far from his best, but having him in there versus Chambers or Flamini (or both) is huge.

On the other hand, you have Campbell, Walcott, and Chamberlain who've been given the chance to get games. Only one has looked decent, and to me, that's Campbell. Walcott has been given the most chances of the three (both to play and scoring chances) and has come up extremely short. I thought Ox looked better against Bournemouth, but a none factor against Newcastle. Last year, Coquelin was given a chance by necessity and he stepped up in a major way. It's disappointing that none of these guys has taken advantage of the chance they've been given.

I had two issues with how they played against Newcastle (and Bournemouth for the second point).
1. Defending the wings. It would be 2 v 2 on the wings, but Arsenal's wing forward would be on the ball, but not really pressing, and the fullback would be tucked in. This was especially the case with Ox and Monreal. This is conservative as you don't want the man with the ball beating the wing forward and being able to attack inside or run at your centerbacks, but it also gave Newcastle an opportunity to get in a ton of crosses. I think that Arsenal could have been more disruptive whether by pressing the ball more or shading the wing more. It was Newcastle's ineptitude in front of goal that really saved them from this failed strategy on Saturday.
2. Attacking through the wings. I feel that many times, Arsenal has the ball and are running at the D, only to make the pass out to the wing. Width and attacking through the wings are both important things, but when you're on the break, you need to be more direct. You need quicker passing. The passes to the wing, often long and slow slows things down and allow the defense to recover. Arsenal has to be more direct and even, you know, take a distance shot every now and then. Even attacking on the break on the wing, there could be a more score first mentality instead of passing or getting to the touch line. Unless that pass is to Ozil, who will probably make a better decision than whoever has the ball.

And you've got to win the games where you're not at your best to win the title.
 

sachmoney

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Arsenal have recalled Serge Gnabry from loan, according to the Telegraph, freeing him from the tyrannical incompetence of Tony Pulis. I personally wouldn't mind giving him a shot at the big club, given what I said about the other three players' performance (above), but it sounds like he'll be winding up at a championship club on loan again.
 

blueguitar322

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Yup, and it looks like Debuchy could be moving the other way with a 6-month loan to WBA. There's some speculation that the reason Gnabry came back was to allow Debuchy to go on loan, as PL rules don't allow two teammates to be loaned to the same team (or so I've read).

Color me extremely disappointed with Debuchy's showing since Arsenal signed him. Yes, injuries and all that, but he was one of the better RBs in the PL when at Newcastle and didn't just lose his spot to a 18-year-old, he completely lost the plot and put up zero challenge for it once he returned from injury. Part of me is sad to see him go as RB was one of the few areas of the team that still had some semblance of depth, but then again I don't want reruns of Debuchy's past few performances (losses to West Ham, Dinamo Zagreb and Sheffield Wednesday along with the 5-1 drubbing at Bayern, plus a win and loss vs Spurs). It looks like right-side options are Bellerin/Chambers with Flamini third choice (nevermind that the team isn't deep enough at CM for him to spare him at RB).
 

blueguitar322

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Midseason injury report update:

Back already/imminently:
February returns:
  • Coquelin is running again following his MCL sprain and might be back sometime in February
  • Wenger hopes Cazorla will be back from his knee surgery by mid-February, which would be a huge boost as Wenger initially gave a timeline of 3-4 months (late March/early April) which according to Arsenal math meant the season was over
March/April returns:
  • Wilshere has seen slow progress, and isn't back to full training yet. Despite initial prognosis of a February return, that timeline now looks doubtful. I'd guess a mid-March return.
  • His agent initially said Rosicky would be out 1-2 months, but that was horribly optimistic and he is still 2-3 weeks from full-speed training, with probably another month or so before match fitness...so sometime in March
  • Welbeck has had a few setbacks and won't be back for 2 more months
What scares me is the possibility of further injuries due to lack of rotation/rest. Wenger is giving all players a few days off this week to help with fatigue, with a public warning to use the recovery time wisely. And it appears he's particularly keen to keep Ozil healthy, giving him a week off from practice during the holiday season to help avoid fatigue injuries. That rest is fully deserved, as Ozil has started all 22 non-league cup games since the beginning of September and hasn't been subbed off earlier than 75' even once. I think it's pretty fair to say that if Arsenal lose him to injury any time in the next two months, they've lost any chance at the title.
 

mikeford

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I never saw much from Debuchy.
There was never much to see. The year before Arsenal signed him he was across the halfway line for a grand total of 2 of Newcastle's goals. And this is a guy whos allegedly an offensively inclined fullback.

He's not good and I'm not sure he ever really was. I always rated Sagna over him even though Debuchy was getting the starts for France. That may have just been Arsenal-bias at the time but... well... Sagna is still a competent footballer and Debuchy... not so much.
 

SidelineCameras

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Midseason injury report update:

Back already/imminently:
February returns:
  • Coquelin is running again following his MCL sprain and might be back sometime in February
  • Wenger hopes Cazorla will be back from his knee surgery by mid-February, which would be a huge boost as Wenger initially gave a timeline of 3-4 months (late March/early April) which according to Arsenal math meant the season was over
March/April returns:
  • Wilshere has seen slow progress, and isn't back to full training yet. Despite initial prognosis of a February return, that timeline now looks doubtful. I'd guess a mid-March return.
  • His agent initially said Rosicky would be out 1-2 months, but that was horribly optimistic and he is still 2-3 weeks from full-speed training, with probably another month or so before match fitness...so sometime in March
  • Welbeck has had a few setbacks and won't be back for 2 more months
It's still weird to me to see a long list of Arsenal injuries and not see Diaby somewhere on the list.
 
Am I the only person who thinks playing Sanchez against Sunderland would be a really, really bad idea? I'm kinda sorta secretly hoping Arsenal goes out of the FA Cup early this year anyway - this is a League year, not a Cup year - and unless Sanchez really is fully fit and can do with getting some match fitness, he shouldn't even be part of the squad on Saturday.
 

fletcherpost

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Big Sam has already said he's gonna make big changes to the starting 11 for the FA Cup match. Sunderland just want to avoid the drop. Arsenal can gub Sunderland without Sanchez. But if it's 3-0 with 15 minutes to go, and yer man is healthy, giving him a run around won't hurt, unless someone fancies having a bit of him for unsavoury reasons.
 

sachmoney

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I would rather bring him on as a substitute just so that they can control his minutes. If you start him and have injuries (Arsenal having injuries?), you may have to leave him out for the full 90, which I wouldn't be comfortable with. At the same time, you can evaluate how the game is going, whether it's fluid or rough and see if you want to put him in there. I'm more worried about Alexis' sharpness than his fitness.
 

blueguitar322

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I would hate for Wenger to completely scuttle his chances at a first-ever FA Cup three-peat, but that's different than playing mostly first-teamers while giving a few key players a rest. And it looks like Wenger will indeed be giving certain players a rest during Saturday's game vs Sunderland.

I agree with the strategy. The extended break (11 days between Newcastle and Liverpool) will hopefully give the likes of Ozil, Ramsey, Giroud etc. some chance to recover from any minor knocks they might have. Unfortunately, the squad right now just isn't deep enough to give everyone a rest, but I think that - outside of the aforementioned three - the remainder of the squad is well-worked but not overly so. I also agree with the consensus to bring Alexis on as a substitute, and that's a typical Wenger recover-from-injury tactic.

In other news:
 

CoRP

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re: "maybe one" I read some stuff recently about Wenger being "busy" in this window but only up to a "maximum of two" signings. Aubameyang would be a huge get for them.
 

blueguitar322

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My guess is Aubameyang won't happen because (1) Dortmund typically don't sell, and (2) United's need and bank account are both much greater. Even Liverpool/Klopp might have the inside edge over Wenger.

Fun to think about, though.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Zero chance that we sign PEA.

I'm not convinced we'll rotate for Sunderland. We are desperately short of creative central midfielders (ironic given this is Arsenal) so I can't see us lining up without either Ozil or Ramsey. And I wouldn't be that surprised if both start.
 
We are desperately short of creative central midfielders (ironic given this is Arsenal) so I can't see us lining up without either Ozil or Ramsey. And I wouldn't be that surprised if both start.
I'm getting angry just thinking about this. Losing Özil to a long-term injury on Saturday might be the most Arsenaly thing ever.

According to http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/fa-cup, the best odds you can get on Arsenal winning the FA Cup are 7-to-1. So factoring in the vig, let's say Arsenal probably have about a 10-12% chance of winning the trophy. How much would a long cup run cost Arsenal in terms of league points? (Has anyone ever seen the math on this?) The title race is going to be tight as nails, to say nothing of the fact that I'd like to see Arsenal give Barcelona their best shot in the Champions League, and to me that's so much more important than another FA Cup...well, I don't think I can bring myself to actually root for Sunderland, but if I were Wenger I'd certainly be playing the kids and fringey players who need match practice.

(EDIT - added the umlaut. I can't help myself.)
 

Schnerres

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Considering all the matches he has played and what´s ahead, i would say Arsene is trying to manipulate Germany´s chances this summer. Löw will play Özil til the bitter end and he will be broken down after 50+(?) matches...
 

mikeford

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£44m bid for PEA but Dortmund are in 2nd and only ("only") 8 points off Bayern. And no champions league to worry about. And they'd get about £40m for qualifying for next year's UCL.

yeah, can't see them selling their best player in this window at all.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Alexis apparently won't be ready for Sunderland. Arteta is available.

Wenger is going to play a strong team. BFS said that he would rotate - Sunderland is fighting a relegation battle and has little use for a few extra cup games - so I think we'll smash them. I just hope either Ozil or Ramsey gets a rest.
 

blueguitar322

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Lineup for Sunderland FA Cup tie:
Cech, Bellerin, Gabriel, Koscielny, Gibbs, Chambers, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Iwobi, Campbell, Walcott, Giroud

Subs: Macey, Debuchy, Arteta, Ramsey, Monreal, Willock, Jeff

Pretty close to what I expected. I'm really glad Ramsey starts on the bench and also glad Ozil has been left out of the squad entirely. Was hoping for some rest for Giroud, but a few early goals might help that cause. Overall, that's pretty heavy rotation. Mertesacker, Flamini and Ozil left out of the squad completely, and Ramsey and Monreal on the bench. Ospina must have picked up a late injury as I believe Wenger had said he'd get the start, but he's not even on the bench.

In other news, Monreal received a new contract. Happy about that. It's hard to find a left back that is far and away better than him, especially in the PL.

EDIT: On Ospina:
 
I'm really glad Ramsey starts on the bench and also glad Ozil has been left out of the squad entirely.
Hear, hear. I can live with this lineup; I wouldn't have minded seeing Debuchy instead of Bellerin, and Chambers in central defense instead of Koscielny (with Flamini in midfield), but at least Özil and Ramsey aren't at risk. And if Giroud gets injured, Wenger would almost certainly have to buy a striker this month, which might be a silver lining.

In other news, Monreal received a new contract. Happy about that. It's hard to find a left back that is far and away better than him, especially in the PL.
Awesome news.
 

blueguitar322

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Awful awful awful mistake by Koscielny just a few days after Wenger compared him to Cannavaro, and now it's 0-1.
 

blueguitar322

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In some CONCACAF-heavy action, Yedlin gets caught a bit too far inside, giving Theo space to find Campbell and now it's 1-1
 

blueguitar322

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Beautiful Bellerin-->Campbell-->Bellerin-->Ramsey move at speed and now it's 2-1. That goal is the culmination of a pretty solid, high tempo 20min of play.
 

soxfan121

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I will always remember where I was when JEFF made his debut. 1-9-16
 

blueguitar322

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3-1 FT. Good win, quite comfortable in the end thanks to a strong second half. No injuries to speak of too. Next up is the non-wounded half of a very thin Liverpool squad mid-week. Need to take 3 points.
 

sachmoney

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In some CONCACAF-heavy action, Yedlin gets caught a bit too far inside, giving Theo space to find Campbell and now it's 1-1
Not sure how you put that on Koscielny. Gibbs was the man at fault imo. That was a dumb dumb dumb pass.
Beautiful Bellerin-->Campbell-->Bellerin-->Ramsey move at speed and now it's 2-1. That goal is the culmination of a pretty solid, high tempo 20min of play.
Bellerin was my motm. His assist were top notch. No secret he is one of my favorite players on this team though.
I will always remember where I was when JEFF made his debut. 1-9-16
Never forget.

/gets a JEFF 1-9-16 tattoo.
 

blueguitar322

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Not sure how you put that on Koscielny. Gibbs was the man at fault imo. That was a dumb dumb dumb pass.
Gibbs shared the blame for sure, but Koscielny tried to beat his man on the dribble inside his own 18. He didn't have many good choices except for emergency clearance, but his reaction was awful.
 

sachmoney

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Gibbs shared the blame for sure, but Koscielny tried to beat his man on the dribble inside his own 18. He didn't have many good choices except for emergency clearance, but his reaction was awful.
Making that short a pass with the Sunderland player pursuing in the same direction was incredibly stupid. I would probably put the blame 95% on Gibbs. But everyone is going to have a different opinion on it.

The Guardian with some praise for our Young Blood:
1) Bellerín shines brightly as one of Arsenal’s stars
When Arsène Wenger was asked after Arsenal’s 3-1 win against Sunderland if there was a better right-back than Héctor Bellerín in England he could not help laughing a little. “I don’t know,” Wenger said, clearly wishing the question could simply go away, before adding: “Look at the numbers, defensive and offensive, the fact he’s only 20 years old.” Wenger had just finished talking up Alex Iwobi’s contribution after a promising half-hour from an occasional team-mate of Bellerín’s in the development levels, valuable praise for a young player in need of reinforcement. With Bellerín the opposite is true. That laugh was Wenger initiating the reverse thrusters and taking an alternative path. Some might suggest the only real countdown now is how many seasons Wenger can hang on to him before the lure of one of Europe’s super clubs, perhaps a return to Catalonia, becomes irresistible. For now Bellerín seems to have it all: poise, craft, the athleticism and intelligence to cover his own mistakes and real creativity going forward, as he showed with two decisive surges to make Arsenal’s winning goals. Already his emergence has rearranged the careers of a few players around him. Mathieu Debuchy may well be off. Calum Chambers, who might have expected some time at right-back, is now popping up in central defensive midfield. Barney Ronay
I still think that he has a ways to go defensively, but he makes up for it a lot with his speed and ability to recover. Much of the game right now is in positioning and containing and he does that pretty decent. His ability to go forward, which I don't think has been on display as much as it could be this season, highlighted the match on Saturday. The pass to Ramsey was absolutely sumptuous. That was an Ozil-esque split of the Sunderland defenders. It's easy to celebrate a goal, but it's hard to not to purr at a pass like that.

Liverpool is decimated with injuries. Arsenal should smash them. Should.
 

blueguitar322

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And just like that, completely against the run of play, Campbell with a nice assist to Ramsey making a run from deep (what else) and it's 1-1. Arsenal are extremely fortunate to be level.
 

blueguitar322

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What a game. The void between Arsenal's defensive line and midfield continues, and after a spectacular Firmino shot it's 2-1.

I haven't found much reason to complain about Wenger this season outside of the ups and downs that plague every non-Barca/Bayern club, but he really misjudged the tactics for this game.