A few random Arsenal thoughts with the season starting tomorrow:
Given the fixture schedule, abbreviated pre-season, and slow movement of the transfer market so far, I think its highly highly likely that we will continue to play the same tactical system with which we ended the year. I do think its a little misleading to simply call it a 3-4-3 as the wrinkle that Arteta eventually introduced, and which brought us the most success, was having the system be really a 3-4-3 out of possession (which meant defending in a 5-4-1 shape when deep) that transitioned to a 4-3-3 when in possession as Tierney shifted from LCB to LB and the LWB tucked into midfield, which in shape terms was sort of a 2-3-5 when attacking the opponent's box. We might eventually transition to more of a straight 4-3-3 system but I don't expect that to happen for a couple months.
In terms of selection issues, I think Tierney is a lock at LCB, Xhaka and Ceballos locks as the CMs, Pepe a lock at RW, Auba a lock to start either at LW or CF, and that we are very likely to see Leno as GK given the seemingly solid rumors about Emi's impending departure. Everything else is a bit murky and complicated by the fact that some players that would otherwise have been selected may be kept to the bench if a deal for them is closer than we expect.
1. CBs - Luiz is a lock to start as the middle CB if fit but that seems uncertain as he has some mysterious neck issue. Arteta will need to pick one from the Holding/Saliba/Gabriel group if Luiz is fit, two if he is not. This will give us the first insight into his appraisal of the readiness of the young CBs to play.
2. Wingbacks - I really don't know what to expect here as much depends on whether either Bellerin or AMN is close to an exit. PSG's interest in Bellerin seems to have cooled and my sense is that Arteta does not want to sell AMN. I wouldn't be surprised to see them both start, just like in the cup final and community shield.
3. Attacking trident - The other really big question, not just for tomorrow but the rest of the season, is how committed Arteta will remain to Auba on the left with Laca/Eddie in the middle, as opposed to Auba central with Willian/Saka on the left. My guess is that he will stick with Auba on the left for the time being, for the sake of continuity, but maybe not.
In terms of the transfermarket, I think the club simply has a tough hand to play. Every club without a megarich owner willing to absorb losses is looking at huge revenue uncertainty over the next year, so every club wants to hoard cash and instead do loan deals, free transfers, and swaps. That's a hard market to sell players. The most likely exits seem to be Torreira to Torino or Fiorentina, Emi Martinez to Aston Villa, and Sokratis for a nominal fee to Napoli. That would net us enough to buy a player like Aouar if we could agree a fee with Lyon. Any other additions would seem to depend on being able to sell at least one if not two of the Bellerin, Laca, and Guendouzi group but their market seems pretty slow and I don't think we're interested in giving any of those guys away for pennies on the dollar. I do think there is some possibility that clubs are waiting until the very end of the transfer window, when they will have greatest insight into whether fans are likely to still be allowed in stadiums and what the rising numbers of Covid cases in many countries means for their revenue projections.
Finally, this
Amy Lawrence piece is a good read on Arsenal's new arrangements in terms of club management. We'll see if they can produce a turnaround on the field, but I think there is substantial reason to be optimistic about finally having a decent set of arrangements and personnel in place. Its certainly night and day with a year ago, when responsibilities were unclear but Raul and Emery were effectively the leading figures.