Are the 2015-2016 Celtics better or worse than the 2014-2015 Celtics?
- Thread starter Devizier
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If you mean, playing a game tomorrow? Probably last year's team.
If you mean in terms of likely value going forward this year's.
They lost a bunch of guys who other than Crowder aren't of any real value to them, and they have cap space and younger players.
If you mean in terms of likely value going forward this year's.
They lost a bunch of guys who other than Crowder aren't of any real value to them, and they have cap space and younger players.
I can't imagine that many people today are feeling to great about how this season played out.
Three less wins (which would have matched the Heat's season total) and the C's could have very well just drafted Justise Winslow.
Being a non-contender in the NBA is all about acquiring assets - and you can't screw up that goal for the "excitement" of being a sub-500 team that sneaks into the playoffs in the East.
You can call it tanking or you can simply call it being smart enough to recognize what's most important for a non-contending NBA team...
Three less wins (which would have matched the Heat's season total) and the C's could have very well just drafted Justise Winslow.
Being a non-contender in the NBA is all about acquiring assets - and you can't screw up that goal for the "excitement" of being a sub-500 team that sneaks into the playoffs in the East.
You can call it tanking or you can simply call it being smart enough to recognize what's most important for a non-contending NBA team...
shouldn't we wait until mid-July for this thread? FA and offseason trades haven't even started yet
Boston won last year by virtue of being a ten man bench. And they won in the post all star break timeframe when the good teams were on cruise control and the bad ones angling for lottery position. By virtue of adding three players (Marcus Thornton was drafted because he's not looking to play in the NBA and only wanted a selection to get a better deal in Europe) to the Portland roster next year, Boston is shortening that bench. If they can't go +30 in bench scoring nightly in next year's post-ASB then they're not going to win 40 games again.moondog80 said:
You think whoever they sign in FA is going to be worse than the dregs of Detroit's bench that they threw out there last year?nighthob said:
Unless they have a trade lined up where all three of their draft picks are being consolidated into a single bench player and they manage to find three more, the 12 man rotation is gone and they're going to be giving bench minutes to guys that don't belong in an NBA game. And they won't be having those same +30 bench scoring nights in March. From November through February the good teams are trying to pile up wins, so Boston's SOL there.
Their immediate future is probably going to look a lot like Charlotte's 2015 after the Hornets compiled an identical record on the back leg of the 2014 season. Two teams that lost their stars last year got much better players in the draft and are getting their stars back this year. So, no, there's no guarantee of improvement. They need to find a star, but that's a tough sell when you don't have many guys on your roster that seem to have a future as quality NBA starters.
Their immediate future is probably going to look a lot like Charlotte's 2015 after the Hornets compiled an identical record on the back leg of the 2014 season. Two teams that lost their stars last year got much better players in the draft and are getting their stars back this year. So, no, there's no guarantee of improvement. They need to find a star, but that's a tough sell when you don't have many guys on your roster that seem to have a future as quality NBA starters.
They need some replacement for Bass but its almost a given that his replacement will rebound better than Bass does. But assuming this is the roster that starts the season, I do think they are better. I think Hunter gives them some outside shooting that they desperately lacked and if there is anyone who can hide his warts its Stevens. They will also have a full season of Thomas who was a +8 for them when he was on the court last year and granted it wasnt all his doing but they were 21 and 9 after they traded for him. I also think its safe to assume that Smart will be improved as well.
We also need some perspective to remember the Stevens effect. That team last year was truly awful but by the end of the season Stevens had them playing well above their heads and I dont see any reason he wont do that again. That still doesnt mean they will have any hopes of doing anything significant in the playoffs because their deficit in talent will become glaring at that point, but looking at just the regular season I do think they will be better.
We also need some perspective to remember the Stevens effect. That team last year was truly awful but by the end of the season Stevens had them playing well above their heads and I dont see any reason he wont do that again. That still doesnt mean they will have any hopes of doing anything significant in the playoffs because their deficit in talent will become glaring at that point, but looking at just the regular season I do think they will be better.
Wait for free agency
There is the chance that Danny had something up a very ample sleeve
balls to the wall we're better ...terry rosier may add to his arsenal.
There is the chance that Danny had something up a very ample sleeve
balls to the wall we're better ...terry rosier may add to his arsenal.
Was gonna post this pretty much word for word. Last years second half was a mirage similar to what Charlotte did the year prior and countless teams in professional sports have been doing for decades when opponents look past a hungry and determined team.nighthob said:
Next years version as it stands today should win 5-10 less games than last year.
This years Marcus Thornton may be playing in the same country as last years Marcus Thornton......and it won't be the United States.Lose Remerswaal said:
I disagree with the idea that they somehow strongly overachieved. It's a terrible conference, and they have some real talent (Smart, Thomas, Sullinger). We'll see who replaces Bass, Crowder, etc..., but I'd expect the team to improve in the abstract given the youth of the returning pieces.HomeRunBaker said:
Harris I view as Jeff Green 2.0. Harris' 2014/15 season was remarkably similar to Jeff Green's production in Boston. A bit more efficient, a big better rebounder, but basically the same. The question is whether Danny wants to bet on a Green-like player again. Harris is 2 years younger than when Green got his extension, but at the time Green was paid a salary that's about 16% of the cap. Assuming the cap really does rise to $87M in 2017, paying Harris $14M/yr is basically the same as what Green got back in 2012.
The question is whether you believe Harris develops the skills Green never did. If he does, he'll be worth $14M and more, given the rising cap. If he doesn't, you're tying up a lot of cap space in a completely average starter at SF. I'd say to put him on the call list, but swing hard for guys like Love and the centers on the market before focusing attention on Harris. If someone gets to him before you, so be it - he's not a guy you trip over yourself to sign.
The question is whether you believe Harris develops the skills Green never did. If he does, he'll be worth $14M and more, given the rising cap. If he doesn't, you're tying up a lot of cap space in a completely average starter at SF. I'd say to put him on the call list, but swing hard for guys like Love and the centers on the market before focusing attention on Harris. If someone gets to him before you, so be it - he's not a guy you trip over yourself to sign.
As for the initial question, I think we are better for a few reasons:
1. Smart, Zeller, KO, and Young will be better next year than in 2014/15, simply due to the fact that guys in their 2nd/3rd seasons are almost always improving
2. Jae Crowder should be assumed returning - he's an RFA, not a UFA and restricted players rarely change hands
3. Jerebko will be back if the C's want him
4. We will have Isaiah Thomas for a full season
5. I viewed Brandon Bass, despite his leadership, as a net negative last year
6. I suspect one of Rozier and Hunter to be at least a decent rotation player next year for 15-20 MPG, or at least get rid of the Phil Pressey Experience
7. The team will pretty much undoubtedly spend at least $15M on a starting-caliber player at C/PF/SF
The team has no key pieces on the wrong side of 30, added talent in the draft and has no pending key talent leaving. The C's played more guys last year than anyone - just settling down the roster will improve production IMO. When you're one of the 5 youngest teams in the NBA like the 2014/15 Celtics, the general expectation should be that improvement should come the following year simply through greater experience.
1. Smart, Zeller, KO, and Young will be better next year than in 2014/15, simply due to the fact that guys in their 2nd/3rd seasons are almost always improving
2. Jae Crowder should be assumed returning - he's an RFA, not a UFA and restricted players rarely change hands
3. Jerebko will be back if the C's want him
4. We will have Isaiah Thomas for a full season
5. I viewed Brandon Bass, despite his leadership, as a net negative last year
6. I suspect one of Rozier and Hunter to be at least a decent rotation player next year for 15-20 MPG, or at least get rid of the Phil Pressey Experience
7. The team will pretty much undoubtedly spend at least $15M on a starting-caliber player at C/PF/SF
The team has no key pieces on the wrong side of 30, added talent in the draft and has no pending key talent leaving. The C's played more guys last year than anyone - just settling down the roster will improve production IMO. When you're one of the 5 youngest teams in the NBA like the 2014/15 Celtics, the general expectation should be that improvement should come the following year simply through greater experience.
Shortening the rotation isn't going to help them. Their strength was that they really only had one guy playing 30 minutes out there. It's a lot easier to kill yourself when you know that you're only playing 20-28 minutes. It's why their bench was pounding opposing benches in the back leg of the season. Having mediocre players pace themselves to play 35 minutes nightly is how you end up with a top 8 pick.
jscola85 said:
I think the Green comparison is a good one, but to be fair, a bit more efficient, bit better rebounding Jeff Green is not a bad player. If it takes 4/60 though… that might be tough to get behind. I hope they like his D if they offer than kind of money.
The two big questions for me are
1) Is the 3 PT% increase this year for real? 36% easily beat his prior career best of 31%, and his other 2 seasons he was at 25% and 26%. That'll be a major factor in his overall value.
2) Does he have a similar early career plateau like Green? Harris' PER and WS/48 have been remarkably consistent in his age 20, 21, and 22 seasons. Green was a bit odd in that he just never got any better. Is Harris on a similar path? There is more hope here since he is only 22, while Greens stagnation before the Celtics got him was age 22-24. But if the Celts make a big offer, I think its safe to say they will be expecting at least some further improvement.
I'm pretty certain it is for real. Harris attempted nearly 50% more attempts behind the arc per48 last year than he did his previous season which likely results from increased confidence created by better results presumably from the work put in. This type of leap in one season is common for a young player expanding his range and his technique, arc, and touch are all very good. He also has good bloodlines as a cousin of Channing Frye.radsoxfan said:
HomeRunBaker said:I'm pretty certain it is for real. Harris attempted nearly 50% more attempts behind the arc per48 last year than he did his previous season which likely results from increased confidence created by better results presumably from the work put in. This type of leap in one season is common for a young player expanding his range and his technique, arc, and touch are all very good. He also has good bloodlines as a cousin of Channing Frye.
Any theories on why his rebound % took a hit last year? At 10.3, it was approaching Jeff Green land, and was only part of his profile that looked much worse last season.
Playing more SF? Taking more 3s and playing more away from the basket? If he is going to be playing small ball 4 in some lineups, it would be nice if he could at least hold his own on the glass.
What does "for real" mean in this context? He shot .364 last year, and is .321 on his career. Where would you put his 3PT% next year?HomeRunBaker said:I'm pretty certain it is for real. Harris attempted nearly 50% more attempts behind the arc per48 last year than he did his previous season which likely results from increased confidence created by better results presumably from the work put in. This type of leap in one season is common for a young player expanding his range and his technique, arc, and touch are all very good. He also has good bloodlines as a cousin of Channing Frye.
This looks like almost entirely a positional thing, yeah. He played SF in 72% of his minutes last year, vs. 26% the year before. He's had two other stretches of playing SF - as a rookie (11.6% TRB), and for half the next year before being traded (9.4%).radsoxfan said:
Harris went from 25% to 36% in a single season......for a 23 year old with good technique and touch along with a dramatic increase in attempts all signs point toward him being 35%+ which for me is the magic number for a stretch 4 to be a very effective offensive weapon (including efficiency and the floor spacing it provides). I don't see Harris reverting back toward his sub-30% ways for these reasons.bowiac said:
radsoxfan said:
I didn't mean to demean him with the Green comparison - I think of it as a positive. There was a very real chance at 24 that Green could've broken out in a bigger role. Just because he didn't doesn't preclude Harris from breaking out, especially since he is a better player now than Green was at the time of the extension, and is two years younger.
I think the bet on Harris is that getting him onto a team with better spacing and coaching will help him break out, and Stevens' magic will turn him from a defensive turnstile to something at least passable. It's not athleticism or size holding Harris back on that end, it is basically effort and basketball IQ.
As for his 3 point shooting, I think he's not quite as good as his % last year, but in Boston he'd also have a lot more open threes thanks to ball movement and spacing, so his % may stay the same thanks to a mix shift of easier threes than he took in Orlando.
It's not sexy but if this team added Robin Lopez and Tobias Harris, they'd take a big step forward. What I love about Lopez especially is (a) his passing and (b) the fact that he doesn't need to be taken off the floor in crunch time. Guys like DAJ, Asik, etc. lose a lot of value in those key minutes due to FT shooting. Lopez you can keep out there to anchor the glass and challenge shots at the rim. At 27 you're also buying his prime years.
I completely agree with the idea that the Harris/Lopez plan would be an underrated but good offseason. I think that adding Harris and Lopez, in addition to resigning Crowder and stapling Turner to the bench or jettisoning him for cheap, and going into next season with the following Top 10 would lead to a not insignificant improvement.jscola85 said:
Smart
Bradley
Harris
Sullinger
Lopez
Thomas
Crowder
Olynyk
Rozier
Young/Hunter
I think in crunch time you'd expect them to go with Thomas Smart Crowder Harris and Lopez, with Sullinger and perhaps a young shooter coming in on offense/defense type of possessions for Crowder/Smart/Lopez. Even better if they can move Bradley for a bigger scoring wing or another legitimate big.
They would still have the Brooklyn and Dallas picks to wishcast on next year in the event that we made the playoffs again or even improved to the 4-6 range with Lopez and Harris (doubtful but theoretically possible in the East, depending on what else happens).
I'm still firmly on the Khris Middleton bandwagon. The Bucks obviously made the QO and are saying they'll match any offer, but Boston has the cash (and need at SF) to be aggressive. They'd still need a big who can rebound and defend, so a Middleton/R. Lopez Free Agency combo could work. I'd also see if I could entice Houston into making an Avery Bradley for Terrence Jones / Kostas Papanikolaou (salary balast) package. Bradley would compliment Harden well as a 3&D guard who can defend PGs and plays off the ball.
It wouldn't be the sexiest offseason ever, but it would be a decent makeover:
C Lopez Zeller
PF Jones Sully Olynyk Mickey
SF Middleton Turner Papanikolau
SG Young Hunter
PG Smart Rozier
It wouldn't be the sexiest offseason ever, but it would be a decent makeover:
C Lopez Zeller
PF Jones Sully Olynyk Mickey
SF Middleton Turner Papanikolau
SG Young Hunter
PG Smart Rozier
Synergy Sports Tech @SynergySST 4m4 minutes ago
Boston ranked 1st in the NBA in roll man points per game. Amir Johnson gives them another very efficient screen setter in the 2-man game.
C's have no cap space right now, though they could create $7M if they used the stretch provision on Gerald Wallace. My guess is that Avery Bradley or something like Turner+Sullinger is shipped out to free up more space for a true small forward, as even with Crowder around there is a gaping hole on the wing.
We still have the Rondo and Prince trade exceptions if there is a team looking to dump a contract to be able to afford a high price FA. That is more likely than us signing a high price FA since I don't believe Ainge has any meeting scheduled with these guys.Eddie Jurak said:
I look at this group and I wonder where in the world points will come from.
And then I remember that they finished 13th in the NBA in scoring last season, at 101.4 points per game. They weren't very efficient (just 25th in points per shot, and 20th in adjusted field goal %), but they still managed to score. I think with Amir and Rozier, they have the potential to really make life miserable for the opposition on defense. This should be an improved team from last year.
And then I remember that they finished 13th in the NBA in scoring last season, at 101.4 points per game. They weren't very efficient (just 25th in points per shot, and 20th in adjusted field goal %), but they still managed to score. I think with Amir and Rozier, they have the potential to really make life miserable for the opposition on defense. This should be an improved team from last year.
jscola85 said:
Eddie Jurak said:
This is if you treat signing sequence as linked to announcement sequence. In reality, cap space mechanations are convoluted to maximize impact. Crowder and Jerebko might agree to wait till the end of FA to "finalize" the contracts (thanks, Bird rights!), thus leaving ~12M more room. It's in their best interests to do so, in fact.
Meanwhile, the Cs will try to spend the next few days wheeling and dealing, leveraging trade exceptions before they have to shed cap holds and exceptions to sign Johnson on July 9. The final step of FA is officially re-signing Jerebko and Crowder.
They were 18th per/100 possessions. A big part despite bad shooting is that they turned the ball over very little, so they had few wasted possessions without a shot.ivanvamp said:
Assuming the Heat resign Wade, it looks like they're going to stay in "go for it" mode. Whether that's smart or not, I'm curious if it would be possible to pry Winslow away from them.
I doubt it. They badly needed a 3 or quick 4 who could defend, preferably one who could also shoot 3s. Now the shooting might not be there, but Winslow should be solid defending and that was what they really needed from that spot. He's basically the perfect fit for what they needed in a young player, which was why it was so infuriating when he fell to them.bowiac said:
I'm pretty high on Winslow, so I'd jump at that (and would include picks as well), but yeah, that's along the lines of what I'm thinking.nighthob said:
bowiac said:
Are you presuming Cs go for tank-broke this year? I'm not saying it's a bad idea, but trying to understand the thinking...
Isn't that Deng's role? It seems like a combination of Thomas and Sullinger should be of interest for instance.Cellar-Door said:
They also do have a need for a scorer that can carry them for that 6-8 minute stretch at the end of the third and the start of the fourth so that they can get Wade and Bosh some rest. So I really do think a Lil' Zeke would make a great base for a trade. Boston would need to include someone like Crowder and probably a pick to balance the scales, but as a trade it's entirely doable from both sides.Cellar-Door said:
Not at all. I think even without Thomas/Sullinger, they're a long ways from being a tanking team.zenter said:
I just want to acquire good assets, and the Celtics have too many players to give minutes to. Winslow was a plausible pick at #2 this year. It's probably a bad sign that he fell to 10, but I still like him a lot as a player.
If you're building around young players, a high upside 19 year old swingman like Winslow is probably a better fit than a 5'8" bench scorer. I like Lil' Zeke, and if the Celtics had drafted him in 2011 they would probably have another title. But the Celtics might be another 2-3 years getting the mix right, and guys Lil' Zeke's size don't have a great track record of lasting. He's a win now kind of guy that really helps a team like the 2016 Heat.zenter said: