Average Reds said:
There may be something to this, but I think the truth is far simpler. A-Rod thought he had a lot of leverage, and only after he filed the suit and things did not unfold that way he thought did the reality of his situation hit him.
We know that A-Rod spent a lot of time amassing dirt on MLB and their investigators. (Specifically, he was gathering evidence of improprieties related to how MLB gathered evidence.)
And all through the process he gave clear signals that if MLB didn't negotiate with him and cut his suspension that he would be forced to file suit and everything would come out. He thought that the suit would force negotiations and he was wrong.
- MLB didn't negotiate a settlement. They went through the arbitration process and were largely validated.
- A-Rod filed his lawsuit, complete with salacious details. No one really batted an eyelash.
- Iinstead of trembling in fear and coming to him to negotiate a settlement, MLB doubled down and blasted him right back.
- The MLBPA abandoned him, with players trying to kick him out of the union.
At that moment, A-Rod had to finally realize that he had badly misplayed his hand. So he folded.
This makes some sense. I wonder though, how it worked in the context of this case.
First, there was a negotiation process that happened prior to the suspension - obviously that went nowhere. Then after the announced suspension, heading into arb, there were rumors that both sides were still very far apart on any possible settlement. However at that time the suspension had already been announced and was the maximum possible penalty A-Rod was facing.
I'm guessing the major items on the table would have been: a) suspension length, b) an admission of wrongdoing, c) a non-disclosure agreement for either party covering various issues.
- I can't see A-Rod acquiescing to any suspension unless he could deny doing anything wrong and have MLB seal the particulars of the accusations.
- I can't see MLB acquiescing to any suspension less than Braun's without an admission of wrongdoing or MLB revealing the particulars of A-Rod's transgressions.
Or to put it another way, A-Rod could have been concerned about: a) money, b) legacy, c) current PR image, d) endorsements. Obviously some overlap there. I just don't see how he salvages much out of this situation - maybe some money if the suspension is reduced, maybe some of the others if there's no admission of wrongdoing. I just don't see him getting away without a suspension of some kind, and certainly not one in which he's allowed to deny any wrongdoing.
So while the idea of "forcing them to the table" makes some sense, I think it was pretty clear that negotiations weren't going to produce anything except a possible reduction in the games he was banned for.
But at this point (just before filing the lawsuit) A-Rod is already in arb. And, from what I recall, the writing was on the wall pretty early in the arb process. Whether or not A-Rod gains anything at arb, there's going to be written findings by the arbitrator, and even if the suspension is reduced, he's still going to be branded a cheater.
So for A-Rod to file the "dirty laundry lawsuit" late in the arb process really does not do anything but open the door for MLB to air all of A-Rod's dirty laundry as well.
***
In retrospect the best thing he could have done was save some money and perhaps a little respect - i.e., come clean, make a full confession to MLB, get some kind of agreement in place for the details not to be leaked out, and negotiate his ban down to something like 100 games.