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Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by BigSoxFan, Jan 28, 2019.
Title says it all. Predict where AD is playing basketball at the start of the 2019-2020 season.
Wild card bitches!
I'll predict Celtics, with Tatum, the SAC pick at #11, and filler going to NO.
The Lakers. He wants to go there. The league would love him to go there. No one is giving New Orleans anything good with out an extension. I really wish the NBA season was from April to October so the shit weather up here wasn’t such a deterrent for players.
Tatum and/or Jaylan, and picks is by far the best package in the NBA. New Orleans will wait things out.
Just to be different, Suns convince Kawhi to sign and trade Ayton and their first round pick for AD. I don't think the order works though with the draft being before FA.
Ayton and any of the top four picks in the draft would be a really tough package to beat.
Wonder if they could convince NO to take Ryan Anderson off their hands.
Booker, Bridges, Warren, Kawhi, AD would be fun
He's an expiring starting next year, no?
They could probably get Randle thrown in the deal if the pick was 1 or 2. Ayton and the 1st overall pick would be impossible to beat.
FWIW - Here are some betting markets. Interestingly, when it comes to prop/future bets, I generally consider Bookmaker to have much sharper odds than the other two. So cheer up, folks!
I think Wob has the eventual deal nailed down actually.
Aside from never wanting to help the Lakers, I’d actually support a version of that deal, if Time Lord went with a pick instead of Tatum.
Kyrie AND Tatum? Fuck that.
This is basically a lock he goes to LAL and then they sign Kyrie or Durant, right?
Apparently Danny has been in contact with the Pelicans for over a year about a trade and New Orleans is in no rush to trade him. He might get traded by the deadline, but I’m changing my mind on LA getting him. Davis appears to be happy playing for a contender and not singularly forcing a trade to LA. He’s also buddies with Kyrie.
We’ll see how true this article is. There literally isn’t an offer that LA could make that could “overwhelm” New Orleans. Magic might as well offer all 3 of his young guys right off the bat and see if that’s enough.
No, not at all. Of those things, AD going to LAL is definitely the most probable, but even that is less than 50% IMO. Durant is definitely not going to LAL, and Kyrie left CLE for a reason.
Yeah, it would take Lonzo, Ingram, Kuzma and several unprotected first round picks (probably post 2022 or so). That's a pretty good haul for NO and an overpay for the Lakers.
He's insane if he doesn't. He should fly to NO now and rent an apartment walking distance from the FO until it's done.
He did a fine job signing Lebron. He has young players with some value and trade ballast up the wazoo. He shouldn't stop to take a leak until it's done or NO tells him to step back.
If the Lakers are getting Davis, they better be giving up enough future unprotected first round picks that will last until LaVar Ball's grandson is ready to be drafted by the Lakers.
Agreed. Offer everything you’ve got right now. If it takes all 3 of his top guys and 2-3 unprotected picks, that’s what you do. You then get the 3rd guy in FA this summer and then fill the rest of the roster with cheap talent and ring chasers.
This is true, but one additional value of getting the unprotected picks is that they take away the only assets the Lakers would have left to improve the team around Davis if LeBron gets hurt/ages, another FA doesn't sign, etc. Same thing if Davis gets hurt during that time. This is what happened to the Nets: Deron Williams cratered from All-NBA to a backup, and they had no way to pull out of the tailspin.
So if you get them to give up lots of post-2022 unprotecteds and swaps, you increase the value of those at the same time. If the Lakers offer me Ingram+Ball and 2022-2024 picks and swaps and I'm the Pels, I take it. It's more of a crapshoot than the Tatum+ or Jamal Murray+ packages you could get, but the upside is ridiculously high.
A big thing working in our favor is that it seems Dell Demps will be GM through the tradeline, and picks 3-5 years out look way less appealing to him than a top-tier young player will.
Boston can beat that fairly handily, so I’m not sure that’s a great deal for NO, and definitely not an overpay for the Lakers to get AD on your team.
I would agree if that Kings pick were higher. As it stands now, I'm not sure #12 overall in 2019, the Memphis unprotected, Brown and salary dumps is better since I'm a believer in Lonzo and Ingram's upside. "Beating it fairly handily" would involve Tatum and Brown plus the picks IMO.
LOL, how did he do a ‘fine job’ signing LeBron? He wanted to go to LA all along, all Magic did was hand him a pen.
I think people in here are over-rating the leaguewide perception of Ingram/Ball and under-rating that of Tatum and Brown, particularly as the latter rounds into form. Tatum is seen in a tier with Mitchell and Simmons--the bluechip young guys of the NBA. Brown...well, there aren't many 21 year-olds who can do what he did in the playoffs. People know his situation this year has been bad for development.
If you're getting LA's 2022-2024 picks (for example), you're hoping that one of them can get you a Tatum.
It's also funny that De'Angelo Russell might turn out to be the best of their string of #2 picks.
What if the Knicks swoop in with Porzingas, Ntilikina, this year's unprotected #1 and future picks?
Pelicans probably don't take it unless the future picks are unprotected, since they'd prefer to see who ends up #1 in the lottery. It would also be an insanely dumb trade for the Knicks to make, since that team would be horrible, and AD would just bolt in 2020. But, it's the Knicks/Dolan, so I suppose...that makes it more likely?
That was my thinking as well. It only took one Nets team to make a dumb trade to blow up the market for Garnett and Pierce (thankfully).
He signed him for 4 years instead of the 1+1 deals that everyone in his stratosphere signs. Discount that if you want, but I think that it's meaningful.
Celtics. Package will be Tatum/Smart/filler/Memphis and Grizzlies picks.
I guess that would help the Knicks land Kemba in the off-season. Does AD + Kemba make them a top 6 EC team in 2019-20?
With the very small outside chance, the Knicks somehow coax Kyrie or Durant.
Otherwise, the Knicks are uninteresting, 2nd fiddles in NYC (hello Brooklyn) and dead men walking for years ahead.
My prediction? AD will be a Laker in July of 2020 one way or the other. And if Ainge sells the farm for a one year rental, he ought to be fired.
What Ainge ought to do is offer Rozier to the Lakers for Lonzo, since Lonzo doesn't want to be a Pelican.
The thing to remember about teams offering their future picks is that those future picks will likely not be as valuable since the team is adding a superstar like AD.
If only there was a team out there that could offer future picks that would NOT be devalued by acquiring talent like AD....
And as of today the Celtics are the favorite to land Davis at Bookmaker AND BetOnline. The betting market is undeterred by Rich Paul’s shenanigans.
Sorry, I was assuming Danny would swap Tatum for Brown if need be. Smart is also a nice asset, so Brown and Smart plus picks/Williams probably is enough, but honestly I might prefer to keep Brown and Smart over Tatum. Tatum and Smart plus would be painful, but probably a deal you have to offer if another team makes you with a monster offer.
I don’t think there’s going to be a scenario where both are necessary.
I think the unknown of Kyrie staying in BOS, not matter how unlikely it is, creates some serious risk for NO in waiting to trade AD until the summer. If Kyrie bolts, BOS is less likely to offer anything resembling Tatum/Smart/picks because the likelihood of AD leaving increases exponentially. Also, the NYK offer (if real) of Porzingis, 2019 #1, Knox, Hardaway, etc. goes away because Porzingis is a RFA and the sign and trade difficulities probably preclude the deal.
My guess - Porzingis, 2019 top 2 protected, Knox, Hardaway, 2023 top 5 protected
If the Celtics think there's a chance Kyrie leaves then they talk to him and make the trade before that with his word that he'll stay if AD is here.
I think there's zero chance they get protections in this scenario. Porzingis is a mess because of the health concerns. The big assets are the picks and NOP will undoubtedly want Zion.
Agreed and it's not just health with Porzingis. What are the odds of him wanting to sign a long-term contract with one of the NBA's wasteland franchises? I think to get AD, Knicks would have to offer Knox, 2019 unprotected, a future pick with limited or no protections, and salary filler like Hardaway.
NO would probably be better off leaving Porzingis alone (for the reasons stated by BigSoxFan) and taking Kanter (expiring), Knox, Ntilikina, Robinson and a boatload of unprotected picks.