An Ode to the Fallen: 2024 - 2025 Offseason Thread

[TomRicardo]

Will KD and LeBron kill another coach? Will KD force his way out? Who is going to steal the beating heart of Heat Culture Caleb Martin?

So many questions already...

The one biting at me right now is if the Heat start Spoelstra Era 4.0 by trading Jimmy Butler away.

Reasons why:

Jimmy Buckets 50 game regular season act finally bit them in the butt
He is going to need an expensive extension to stay
Jimmy is 34
Way more buyers than sellers this offseason

Reasons why not:

1 year removed from NBA finals run
Jaquez and Novic being able to pick up more slack


Honestly I don't think there is much market for Herro, his best asset is he is still young. His defense has not really improved and he gets paid a lot to be Tre Young light.

Let's say the Pelicans offer Ingram, Daniels and a couple of 1s for Jimmy Butler to come yell at Zion to stop eating. If you are the Heat, that has to be appealing to reset the clock with Ingram and Bam.

 

[m0ckduck]

Will KD and LeBron kill another coach? Will KD force his way out? Who is going to steal the beating heart of Heat Culture Caleb Martin?

So many questions already...

The one biting at me right now is if the Heat start Spoelstra Era 4.0 by trading Jimmy Butler away.

Reasons why:

Jimmy Buckets 50 game regular season act finally bit them in the butt
He is going to need an expensive extension to stay
Jimmy is 34
Way more buyers than sellers this offseason

Reasons why not:

1 year removed from NBA finals run
Jaquez and Novic being able to pick up more slack


Honestly I don't think there is much market for Herro, his best asset is he is still young. His defense has not really improved and he gets paid a lot to be Tre Young light.

Let's say the Pelicans offer Ingram, Daniels and a couple of 1s for Jimmy Butler to come yell at Zion to stop eating. If you are the Heat, that has to be appealing to reset the clock with Ingram and Bam.

I think the Heat, like the Lakers, want to cultivate a reputation of taking care of older stars as part of their free agent recruitment strategy. I don't see them pursuing it as recklessly as LA (e.g. last Kobe contract) but I doubt they will move on aggressively and Bellichick-ianly from Jimmy Butler.

In general, a lot of the league's stars (Luka, Kawhi, PG, KD, Booker, Lebon, AD, etc) are safely stashed in the West on teams that aren't really threatening to contend at the moment. I'm interested to see how much the balance of power changes and complicates life as a Celtics fan.

 

[chilidawg]

Will KD and LeBron kill another coach? Will KD force his way out? Who is going to steal the beating heart of Heat Culture Caleb Martin?

So many questions already...

The one biting at me right now is if the Heat start Spoelstra Era 4.0 by trading Jimmy Butler away.

Reasons why:

Jimmy Buckets 50 game regular season act finally bit them in the butt
He is going to need an expensive extension to stay
Jimmy is 34
Way more buyers than sellers this offseason

Reasons why not:

1 year removed from NBA finals run
Jaquez and Novic being able to pick up more slack


Honestly I don't think there is much market for Herro, his best asset is he is still young. His defense has not really improved and he gets paid a lot to be Tre Young light.

Let's say the Pelicans offer Ingram, Daniels and a couple of 1s for Jimmy Butler to come yell at Zion to stop eating. If you are the Heat, that has to be appealing to reset the clock with Ingram and Bam.

I haven't watched much of NO, but the couple post season games I watched Ingram sucked. I'd run it back with Jimmy and Bam. What they really need is to upgrade the cast around them. High end "role" players in the vein of DW, Holiday, Gordon, KCP etc. who can defend and contribute offensively.

 

[lovegtm]

The Heat seem to really believe in taking championship shots when you have even outside equity. Maybe go the other direction, and trade Herro + assets + stuff for Trae Young and DeAndre Hunter?

It would be similar to what they missed out on with Lillard, but with a younger guard who maybe has even higher offensive upside. They can ask Spo+Bam to do magic and fix the defensive issues.

 

[TomRicardo]

The Heat seem to really believe in taking championship shots when you have even outside equity. Maybe go the other direction, and trade Herro + assets + stuff for Trae Young and DeAndre Hunter?

It would be similar to what they missed out on with Lillard, but with a younger guard who maybe has even higher offensive upside. They can ask Spo+Bam to do magic and fix the defensive issues.

Miami has no assets unless they want to trade Jaquez or Novic. They can trade their 2029 pick after the draft I guess. I don't get why Atlanta would trade Trae Young for a slightly younger less talented Trae Young especially since the only way to make the money work is take on Duncan Robinson as well unless once again the Heat are willing to trade Jaquez or Novic

 

[lovegtm]

Miami has no assets unless they want to trade Jaquez or Novic. They can trade their 2029 pick after the draft I guess. I don't get why Atlanta would trade Trae Young for a slightly younger less talented Trae Young especially since the only way to make the money work is take on Duncan Robinson as well unless once again the Heat are willing to trade Jaquez or Novic

I forgot their pick situation was so bad. Doesn't their 2031 pick open up after the draft, along with lots of swaps?

 

[TomRicardo]

I forgot their pick situation was so bad. Doesn't their 2031 pick open up after the draft, along with lots of swaps?

They can trade a pick after 2029. How much are you going value swaps to a team with Bam, Spoelstra, and no income tax?

 

[Kliq]

Chris Vernon said something really interesting about KD and LeBron on The Mismatch earlier this week. He talked about coaching these guys as a super unattractive position because you are in these situations where you have players who aren't good enough to be the best guy on title teams, but are still big enough names to get you fired when you lose. Devin Booker is about to be on this 7th coach since entering the NBA.

 

[lovegtm]

They can trade a pick after 2029. How much are you going value swaps to a team with Bam, Spoelstra, and no income tax?

It is true that Miami killed the value of their future picks forever when Spo made those awful post-Lebron teams competitive.

 

[Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache]

Riley and the Heat are allergic to first round picks. Those aren't assets they'd target in trades, and if they got they'd probably trade them away.

They think they can get undrafted free agents that are better than the schmucks taken outside of the top 5, and a certain amount of the time they've been right

 

[tims4wins]

Good luck to the Bucks, paying their 3 coaches next year.

 

[lovegtm]

How good do we feel about Giannis as he ages? 2 straight postseasons eliminated due to health, and a game that relies a ton on physicality and explosion.

 

[tims4wins]

How good do we feel about Giannis as he ages? 2 straight postseasons eliminated due to health, and a game that relies a ton on physicality and explosion.

Wouldn’t trade JT for him. Couldn’t say that 1-2 years ago

 

[lovegtm]

Wouldn’t trade JT for him. Couldn’t say that 1-2 years ago

I don't think any of the teams with young studs would trade them for Giannis now. Ant, SGA, Luka, Tatum....better health bets and younger.

 

[TomRicardo]

How good do we feel about Giannis as he ages? 2 straight postseasons eliminated due to health, and a game that relies a ton on physicality and explosion.

The issue with the Bucks is that they are old. Next year the youngest person in their core is Bobby Portis who will be turning 30 before the trade deadline. If they can find a way to keep Malik that gets them to 28. Unless they get lucky in the draft there isn't much they can do as a second apron team.

In a conference with the Celtics, Knicks, Pacers, Magic, and Cleveland.that is going to be tough to pull off. Shit even the 76ers and Heat are younger.

 

[the moops]

Chris Vernon said something really interesting about KD and LeBron on The Mismatch earlier this week. He talked about coaching these guys as a super unattractive position because you are in these situations where you have players who aren't good enough to be the best guy on title teams, but are still big enough names to get you fired when you lose. Devin Booker is about to be on this 7th coach since entering the NBA.

KD and Lebron are most certainly guys good enough to be the best player on a title team.

 

[tims4wins]

I forgot that Giannis missed 2 games last year against the Heat. So he's missed 8 of their last 11 playoff games.

The Celtics have no reason to not win the East for the next few years. Too bad Tatum got hurt last year, they could have been looking at like 5 straight finals appearances.

 

[lexrageorge]

IMHO, it's way too early to declare Giannis best days behind him. The injury was more untimely than anything else, and is unlikely to be anything chronic. However, the Bucks are old and have zero draft capital to trade. Lillard and Middleton are on the wrong side of the aging curve. They'll still be a threat in future EC playoff series, but will need some Miami Heat style luck to return to the Finals.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

I’m waiting for the 30 for 30 on the Curse of the IST

 

[tims4wins]

View: https://twitter.com/statmuse/status/1786239795829547113?s=46

 

[HomeRunBaker]

IMHO, it's way too early to declare Giannis best days behind him. The injury was more untimely than anything else, and is unlikely to be anything chronic. However, the Bucks are old and have zero draft capital to trade. Lillard and Middleton are on the wrong side of the aging curve. They'll still be a threat in future EC playoff series, but will need some Miami Heat style luck to return to the Finals.

Giannis’ value to a team changes significantly if the league shifts to a more physical style of officiating. He’s a horrific 3-pt shooter and if Giannis is not going to get the same whistle he’s accustomed the last half dozen years he’s no longer in that top top tier.

 

[TomRicardo]

KD and Lebron are most certainly guys good enough to be the best player on a title team.

Are they?

Maybe if your replaced Tatum with Durant (LeBron wouldn't work) on Boston and squinted real hard... You couldn't replace either of them with Joker, Ant, or SGA and get the same results. Hell I don't think either would be improvement on Brunson or Luka. Maybe LeBron on Cleveland for Spider though I don't think that team would have a real chance to win.

 

[lovegtm]

Giannis’ value to a team changes significantly if the league shifts to a more physical style of officiating. He’s a horrific 3-pt shooter and if Giannis is not going to get the same whistle he’s accustomed the last half dozen years he’s no longer in that top top tier.

Not to mention that his physical decline, when it comes, would be faster because he'll get the crap beat out of him more.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Tobias Harris will be an interesting FA. Sure, he's going to be overpaid and no, I don't think he can be a 1 or 2 on a good team. As this year showed, maybe not even a third guy.

But he is one of the better FAs available for most teams (a few teams maybe have a shot at Lebron, but most don't) so he both will get paid and will be interesting to see what the market really thinks of him.

 

[lovegtm]

Tobias Harris will be an interesting FA. Sure, he's going to be overpaid and no, I don't think he can be a 1 or 2 on a good team. As this year showed, maybe not even a third guy.

But he is one of the better FAs available for most teams (a few teams maybe have a shot at Lebron, but most don't) so he both will get paid and will be interesting to see what the market really thinks of him.

It feels like Philly got really, really toxic for him. If a team paid him $20M/yr to be a solid starter, they and he would probably be happy.

He feels like the kind of guy who would be a good sidekick to Jokic, but that's not logistically feasible.

Probably destined to be overpaid by someone like Detroit.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Yeah, that's what I mean.

He's more or less Bruce Brown as a FA isn't he? Really useful in the right role and likely to be overpaid and miscast beyond it.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

Vaguely on the topic of this thread, I think it’s mildly noteworthy that Harden and LeBron are now in *dead heats* with Ray and Reggie, respectively, in career threes made (regular season plus playoffs).

1. S. Curry 4,365
2. (tie) J. Harden and R. Allen 3,358
4. K. Thompson 2,982
5. (tie) L. James and R. Miller 2,880
7. D. Lillard 2,826

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/most-3-pointers-combined-regular-season-and-playoffs-nba-career-individual

Yes, I spend more time looking at the combined tally than I should; and won’t be surprised if no one other than me notices if/when Harden passes Ray Allen tonight….

 

[the moops]

Yeah, that's what I mean.

He's more or less Bruce Brown as a FA isn't he? Really useful in the right role and likely to be overpaid and miscast beyond it.

Bruce Brown was coming off being a key contributor on a championship team. Harris coming off being a no-show on a first round exit

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Bruce Brown was coming off being a key contributor on a championship team. Harris coming off being a no-show on a first round exit

Agreed, and also pretty clear that Harris has consistently been a better player. I'm willing to bet he gets a better contract than Brown, even given playoff success. You want other side of that bet?

My point is the archetype of "good but not great player who will be overpaid" likely applies to both.

 

[Brand Name]

Tobias Harris (...) will both will get paid and will be interesting to see what the market really thinks of him.

Detroit feels inevitable. Comes from a winning team (relative to the Pistons), can get some empty points without the bad, mutual relationship he had with Philly.

But did you know he's got the most career earnings ever in league history without being named to any ASG? Granted, that's recent cap increases as a key factor but still, thought it felt relevant given the market bit of your post.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

I’m waiting for the 30 for 30 on the Curse of the IST

Ham fired: https://www.latimes.com/sports/lakers/story/2024-05-03/lakers-fire-coach-darvin-ham-playoff-loss

 

[chilidawg]

Are they?

Maybe if your replaced Tatum with Durant (LeBron wouldn't work) on Boston and squinted real hard... You couldn't replace either of them with Joker, Ant, or SGA and get the same results. Hell I don't think either would be improvement on Brunson or Luka. Maybe LeBron on Cleveland for Spider though I don't think that team would have a real chance to win.

Give KD and Booker or AD and Lebron a surrounding cast like Denver or the C's have and they absolutely could win a championship.

 

[Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache]

View: https://twitter.com/statmuse/status/1786239795829547113?s=46

Now do Embiid with Jimmy Butler

 

[benhogan]

Detroit feels inevitable. Comes from a winning team (relative to the Pistons), can get some empty points without the bad, mutual relationship he had with Philly.

But did you know he's got the most career earnings ever in league history without being named to any ASG? Granted, that's recent cap increases as a key factor but still, thought it felt relevant given the market bit of your post.

Great pull, thanks. I believe his brother is his agent, so 10% of that haul has been kept in the family.

Plus he cost the 76ers Jimmy Butler (which probably isn't true) but Jimmy likes shouting it every time he's in Philly.
Adds to the The Legend of Tobias Harris, Philly Phraud

 

[RorschachsMask]

View: https://twitter.com/TheDunkCentral/status/1786480211258699920

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Cultural differences

 

[Cellar-Door]

View: https://twitter.com/TheDunkCentral/status/1786480211258699920

While the "culture" trappings are cute..... the real issue is he wants a new megadeal at age 35 in decline and Pat Riley, the guy who told Dwyan Wade a franchise legend with a bunch of rings to take a hike over a new contract coming off an All-Star (but clear decline) season is not giving him one.

 

[BigSoxFan]

While the "culture" trappings are cute..... the real issue is he wants a new megadeal at age 35 in decline and Pat Riley, the guy who told Dwyan Wade a franchise legend with a bunch of rings to take a hike over a new contract coming off an All-Star (but clear decline) season is not giving him one.

Miami and Milwaukee should switch supporting casts

Butler/Herro for Lillard/Middleton

 

[Montana Fan]

View: https://twitter.com/TheDunkCentral/status/1786480211258699920

Rumor is that he wants to play for Orlando.

 

[tims4wins]

Rumor is that he wants to play for Orlando.

View attachment 82049

A+

 

[Euclis20]

While the "culture" trappings are cute..... the real issue is he wants a new megadeal at age 35 in decline and Pat Riley, the guy who told Dwyan Wade a franchise legend with a bunch of rings to take a hike over a new contract coming off an All-Star (but clear decline) season is not giving him one.

Riley wouldn't bend for prime Lebron. Unless he's gone soft, Jimmy will either get in line or get run out of town.

 

[dhellers]

Give KD and Booker or AD and Lebron a surrounding cast like Denver or the C's have and they absolutely could win a championship.

But the act of creating these combinations made it very difficult to put together such a surrounding cast.

 

[Kliq]

But the act of creating these combinations made it very difficult to put together such a surrounding cast.

Yup. The reason those guys don't have those surrounding casts is in part because they force organizations to give up tons of assets to land the stars in the first place. KD had a bad supporting cast in Phoenix largely because he demanded a trade to Phoenix and forced them to give up tons of assets to get him.

 

[chilidawg]

But the act of creating these combinations made it very difficult to put together such a surrounding cast.

Very true. And that's why we see so many teams chasing stars and ending up failing.

My point being more that the players are good enough to win if you if you have a great supporting cast.

 

[RG33]

KD and Lebron are most certainly guys good enough to be the best player on a title team.

I can get behind LBJ for obvious reasons, but KD has never been close to being one when he has had to be a #1 and carry a team.

 

[lovegtm]

I can get behind LBJ for obvious reasons, but KD has never been close to being one when he has had to be a #1 and carry a team.

Really? He nearly won the 2021 Bucks series by himself, and that time was head and shoulders above everyone else, had Kyrie and Harden stayed healthy (they're not super injury-prone, so he got really unlucky).

He also carried OKC well, and we'd see that run a lot differently if Klay hadn't gone off in 2016.

I'm VERY bearish on late-career KD, and think he's extremely overrated. But younger KD was absolutely a #1.

 

[Euclis20]

Really? He nearly won the 2021 Bucks series by himself, and that time was head and shoulders above everyone else, had Kyrie and Harden stayed healthy (they're not super injury-prone, so he got really unlucky).

He also carried OKC well, and we'd see that run a lot differently if Klay hadn't gone off in 2016.

I'm VERY bearish on late-career KD, and think he's extremely overrated. But younger KD was absolutely a #1.

I think it's somewhat telling that KD is a top 20 all-time player with 2 finals MVPs, and perhaps the series he's most known for is a second round series that he lost. He's an incredibly difficult player to judge historically, Curry winning that 2nd title without him (while Durant hasn't been relevant in the postseason since leaving GS) was a real eye opener. It's quite clear he's not (and maybe never really was) the leader of a team, he's just an unbelievable scorer and all-time great all-around player.

Obviously younger KD was a true #1, the question is whether or not he (and Lebron) still are. It seems like they obviously are given their production, but despite the numbers and playing with a bunch of all-star level teammates, KD has won just a pair of 1st round series over the last five years, and he's been swept twice in the 1st round. At this point, I don't know that we can say he's still good enough to be the best player on a title team.

 

[the moops]

At this point, I don't know that we can say he's still good enough to be the best player on a title team.

I think just about any top 10-20 player in the league is good enough to be the best player on a title team if the surrounding talent is there

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

This forum has seen a lot of NBA championships. We've seen a few one year wonders, a few dynasty types and plenty of teams that had enough excess talent to simply outlast everyone.

Aside from assembling as many stars and solid roleplayers as possible there doesn't seem to be a formula in terms of *who* you have to have. So if you tell me a talented team adds KD and he leads them to a championship next year that doesn't sound improbable at all. KD on an Orlando or OKC or Cleveland, for example, makes each scarier to me (depending on whom they have to lose to acquire him) - I wouldn't relish the C's facing one of those squads in the playoffs.

We tend to call *washed* early here on this site - I have been guilty of it myself - and while its clear that some of the older NBA superstars have lost some steps, they can still beat most of the league when they want to. KD didn't look done to me in PHX at all - that roster was just a tire fire.

 

[TomRicardo]

Give KD and Booker or AD and Lebron a surrounding cast like Denver or the C's have and they absolutely could win a championship.

AD and LeBron with the Nuggets wouldn't get a home series in the playoffs. The spacing would horrific. The team works because Joker is such a dynamic playmaker and has Murray as No 2 pick and roll and three level scorer. AD and LeBron have different skill sets, the Nuggets in that case would be a mess. You can't put Aaron Gordon, LeBron, and AD on the court at the same time and think it will work out just as well as Joker and Murray.

KD and Booker on the Nugget would be a better match but still isn't going to be as effective Joker and Murray. There is a reason KP looks way better next to Tatum and Brown than Luka. 3rd stars down to role players need to fit next the stars to maximize their skills. You can have someone very limited in certain pieces and he is a better fit because the star. And you ahve to create syngeries and style matching. The Celtics match because they all can defend multiple positions and shoot the 3.

If you were looking for two guys to slide into the Nuggets it would Embiid and Maxey. I still don't think that team could win but it definitely would be a contender. If you were looking for a team to slide AD and LeBron onto it would be the Heat for Bam and Jimmy off the top of my head. I would move KD and Booker to the Knicks for Brunson and Randle or OKC for SGA and Chet.

and yes I think that NBA roster construction starts with an NBA Jam pairing then building around that.