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AFC Playoff Watch: The Quest for the #1 seed

Discussion in 'Blinded by the Lombardis: Patriots Forum' started by RedOctober3829, Nov 5, 2018.

  1. alydar

    alydar Member SoSH Member

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    863
    Right, because either IND or TEN will have 10 wins.
     
  2. DeadlySplitter

    DeadlySplitter Member SoSH Member

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    oh wow, that's still in play huh. crazy
     
  3. Ed Hillel

    Ed Hillel Wants to be startin somethin SoSH Member

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    Not if Pitt wins, Baltimore wins, and Indy-Titans tie! Three way 9-6-1 for the last spot.
     
  4. alydar

    alydar Member SoSH Member

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    863
    And last, can’t have both PIT and BAL make the playoffs — one of them wins the division, the other is out.
     
  5. alydar

    alydar Member SoSH Member

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    863
    Right, a tie here - esp since it will likely be the flexed game - would be wild.

    Edit - and if three teams all finish 9-6-1 I believe Indy gets in based on conference record
     
  6. DeadlySplitter

    DeadlySplitter Member SoSH Member

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    not true - but IND/TEN are not going to tie, so basically true
     
  7. DeadlySplitter

    DeadlySplitter Member SoSH Member

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    one thing I'm not sure I want - if BAL & JAX win, BAL gets the 3 seed and is in line to play us.
     
  8. alydar

    alydar Member SoSH Member

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    863
    Hmm, I’ll need to think about this. I mean, I know I could look it up somewhere, but sometimes working it out yourself is fun... this scenario I think also requires a Baltimore tie, for both PIT and BAL to make it?
     
  9. LesterFan

    LesterFan Member SoSH Member

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    If IND/TEN tie wouldn't IND get the tiebreaker between them since they won the first matchup? Then it would come down to IND/PIT. Head-to-head doesn't apply, they'd be tied in conference record, then it would come down to record in common games (min of 4 common games) then strength of victory followed by strength of schedule.
     
  10. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    Yes. Houston has clinched a playoff spot with Pitt’s loss but could still be the 6 with a loss and a non tie in Ind-Tenn
     
  11. wilked

    wilked Member SoSH Member

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    Can the Pats fall to 4th seed or is it 2/3 only?
     
  12. alydar

    alydar Member SoSH Member

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    That’s right. That’s a lot of looking stuff up!
     
  13. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    Um, if Pats and Titans are division winners at 10-6 they can get the 4
     
  14. alydar

    alydar Member SoSH Member

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    If Pats lose and BAL and HOU win, we’re the 4 and HOU is the 2

    Edit - and what Red said
     
  15. SirPsychoSquints

    SirPsychoSquints Member SoSH Member

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    Yes, patriots loss plus Baltimore and Houston win equals fourth. I don’t know the various scenarios of three slash four way ties if Houston ties for the division after losing.
     
  16. DeadlySplitter

    DeadlySplitter Member SoSH Member

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    and according to the playoff machine, PIT would win the common opponent record tiebreaker over IND in the scenario described. And I think it would be in no small part because we beat IND but not PIT.
     
  17. LesterFan

    LesterFan Member SoSH Member

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    10,068
    Pats could fall to 4th with a loss and Ravens win (assuming Texans also win). Ravens would win tiebreaker based on conference record (8-4 vs 7-5)
     
  18. SirPsychoSquints

    SirPsychoSquints Member SoSH Member

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    3,909
    Looks like Baltimore can’t get a wild card anymore - Baltimore wins or Steelers lose and they get the North.
     
  19. Kenny F'ing Powers

    Kenny F'ing Powers posts 18% useful shit

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    I'd rather see Pittsburgh in the playoffs over Baltimore be ause they worry me much less, but I really want to see the Steelers miss the playoffs...

    Quite the dilemma.
     
  20. MillarTime

    MillarTime Member SoSH Member

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    Samesies
     
  21. Old Fart Tree

    Old Fart Tree the maven of meat Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Hm. Pittsburgh still worries me. I’d rather them just miss the playoffs altogether.
     
  22. j44thor

    j44thor Member SoSH Member

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    I'd be much more worried about phantom DPI calls against PIT than BAL. BAL is also much easier to game plan against on defense. NE could play man cover 1/0 80% of the game against BAL.
    It would be a slugfest for sure but I think NE matches up better against BAL than PIT.
     
  23. dcmissle

    dcmissle Deflatigator Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    From a competitive standpoint — the potential to do damage in the playoffs — Pittsburgh being out while Indy/Tenn is in: is a joke.

    But the system is the system.
     
  24. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    Philly/Wash has been moved to 4:25 next week. If KC loses, they’ll move to 4:25.
     
    #374 RedOctober3829, Dec 23, 2018
    Last edited: Dec 23, 2018
  25. amfox1

    amfox1 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Armchair NFL‏ @ArmchairNFL 3m3 minutes ago
    The following games have been flexed into later time slots for Week 17: Bears at Vikings - 4:25 ET Eagles at Redskins - 4:25 ET Browns at Ravens - 4:25 ET Bengals at Steelers - 4:25 ET Colts at Titans - 8:25 ET
     
  26. johnmd20

    johnmd20 literally like ebola Lifetime Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    You are what your record says you are. Indy is good, anyway. Tennessee is a little iffier, their offense is laughable. Mariota is a calamity under center. But maybe Gabbert can get it done. Or maybe not.
     
  27. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    Steelers have 2 wins against playoff teams: Pats and 1-1 vs Baltimore. Also lost to KC Saints and Chargers. 2-4 against playoff teams plus a loss to Denver and Oakland and a tie against the Browns. Big whoop if they can do damage.
     
  28. dcmissle

    dcmissle Deflatigator Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I am not arguing the result should be different. You know going in that each game is precious. You know this at the beginning of the season.

    Pittsburgh would annihilate Tennessee on a neutral field.
     
  29. johnmd20

    johnmd20 literally like ebola Lifetime Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Agreed, Tennessee has done it with mirrors and magic wands. They are like the Giants from a couple of years ago. Easy schedule, a couple of close wins and they squeak into the playoffs and then get destroyed.
     
  30. j44thor

    j44thor Member SoSH Member

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    Pitt seems to play down to the level of their competition, not unlike a lot of teams.
    They won 3 games by more than 10 and lost one game by more than 10 and every other game was decided by 7 or less. They would probably beat TN but I doubt they would annihilate them.
     
  31. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    They lost in Oakland, that is pretty close to a neutral field no?
     
  32. dcmissle

    dcmissle Deflatigator Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Yes. And the Pats got destroyed @Jax, Det and Tenn, and the last play @Mia will probably cost them the 1 seed.

    And the difference between @KC and @NE in a final AFC game is night and day.

    So shit happens.
     
  33. j-man

    j-man Member

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    i see it 2 ways

    A 1 KC 2 NE 3 HOU 4 BALT 5 LAC 6 INDY OR B 1 KC 2 HOU 3 NE 4 PITT 5 LAC 6 TENN
     
  34. Seels

    Seels Member SoSH Member

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    Baltimore is a nightmare matchup in the playoffs. Their biggest strength is running the ball and the Pats have had various games they've given up 8 yards a carry. No fucking thanks. I could see Jackson having a Kaepernick v Packers performance against the Pats.
     
  35. soxhop411

    soxhop411 Member SoSH Member

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    So we need to be Broncos and raiders fans next week?

    Both of them win and we get the number 1 seed?
     
  36. GoDa

    GoDa lurker

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    No, I think the Chargers win the 3rd tie-breaker vs. Pats. Best Pats can do is 2 seed.
     
  37. SirPsychoSquints

    SirPsychoSquints Member SoSH Member

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    3,909
    What about three way with the chargers and Texans?

    Edit: pointing out your premise that LAC win the tiebreaker for the division is incorrect.
     
  38. SirPsychoSquints

    SirPsychoSquints Member SoSH Member

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    NYT simulator says patriots get 1 seed if all three KC LAC NE are tied. I don’t know the math.

    Edit: it’s because KC would win the division and the Patriots would win the H2H tiebreaker with either KC ir KC/HOU.
     
  39. shawnrbu

    shawnrbu Member SoSH Member

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    3 way Pats/Texans/Chiefs tiebreaker has the seeding in that order.
     
  40. Ed Hillel

    Ed Hillel Wants to be startin somethin SoSH Member

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    No, the AFC West tiebreaker happens first because they are same division, so KC wins that, then we beat KC. So if KC and SD lose and we win, Pats are one seed.
     
  41. j44thor

    j44thor Member SoSH Member

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    Yes and if HOU is included in that grouping they would be the #2 seed with KC the #3 seed LAC #5 seed.

    Basically as long as NE/KC/LAC are all tied NE is #1 seed because KC wins tie-breaker over LAC and NE has tiebreaker over KC.
     
  42. dcmissle

    dcmissle Deflatigator Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    26,565
    So much
    I’d like to have the payout on a Denver/Oakland/NE win parlay.
     
  43. koufax32

    koufax32 He'll cry if he wants to... SoSH Member

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    NYT playoff scenario thingy disagrees and says NE gets #1 seed in this scenario.
     
  44. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    If it's Indy at Houston and LA at Baltimore with KC 1 NE 2 there's a decent shot that the Divisional Round could be Indy at KC which would be a great matchup for the Pats' chances to host the AFC title game. The Chargers or Ravens would be a tough matchup for the Pats offense however.
     
  45. j44thor

    j44thor Member SoSH Member

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    The games NE have been gashed on the ground are mostly the games where they faced quality QBs and stayed with a lighter box. PIT/MN/GB all come to mind with MIA as an outlier.
    BAL is so one dimensional that I think NE could do enough to slow that running game. They could play cover 1/0 vast majority of the game and keep 9 in the box. Lamar Jackson is a terrible passer. I'd like my chances going up against him in the playoffs. Much more so than an LAC team that is extremely well balanced on offense.
     
  46. SirPsychoSquints

    SirPsychoSquints Member SoSH Member

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    3,909
    TEN and IND are both win and in, plus a Houston loss for the division.

    MIN is in with a win OR philly loss. Philly is obviously the flip side.

    Rams get the #2 with a win or bears loss.

    Saints locked into 1, Dallas locked into 4.

    Seattle win or Vikings loss for the 5, otherwise 6.

    Not a lot of drama in the NFC.
     
  47. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    Looking at a possible playoff TV schedule if KC/NE and NO/LAR are the top 4 seeds

    Wild Card
    Saturday
    4:30 Indy at Houston ABC/ESPN
    8:15 Minnesota at Chicago NBC

    Sunday
    1:00 LA Chargers at Baltimore CBS
    4:25 Seattle at Dallas FOX

    Divisional
    Saturday
    4:30 Chicago at LA Rams NBC
    8:15 Baltimore/LA Chargers at Patriots CBS

    Sunday
    1:00 Indy at KC CBS
    4:25 Seattle/Dallas at New Orleans FOX
     
  48. dcmissle

    dcmissle Deflatigator Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    26,565
  49. DeadlySplitter

    DeadlySplitter Member SoSH Member

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    1. KC 11-4 (OAK)
    2. New England 10-5 (NYJ)
    3. Houston 10-5 (JAX)
    4. Baltimore 9-6 (CLE)

    5. LA Chargers 11-4 (@DEN)
    6. Indy 9-6 (@TEN)

    Tennessee 9-6 (IND)
    Pittsburgh 8-6-1 (CIN)
     
  50. SMU_Sox

    SMU_Sox loves his fluffykins SoSH Member

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    If I post enough times I’ll get one right eventually... SuperNomario though is a different story.

    There are five difficult outs this year if the playoff picture holds in the AFC (all expect for IND/TEN)
    Chargers, Ravens, and Texans are all well balanced squads. (Pit is too but inconsistent)

    The Patriots are a well balanced squad too but never at the same time. If this team can ever fire on all cylinders at the same time they will be competitive against anyone in the playoffs and/or Super Bowl. They just haven’t done that.

    KC isn’t well balanced but even with the Hunt fiasco they still have a potent offense and likely HFA. Road defense against KC is enough of a disadvantage that KC is dangerous too.

    I don’t know what to expect from this team. It’s been a weird season. If they went a roll it wouldn’t surprise me. But it wouldn’t surprise me if they laid an egg either. Seems like everything has been leading up to a road loss in the playoffs.
     

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