Separate names with a comma.
Discussion in 'Blinded by the Lombardis: Patriots Forum' started by RedOctober3829, Nov 5, 2018.
Right, because either IND or TEN will have 10 wins.
oh wow, that's still in play huh. crazy
Not if Pitt wins, Baltimore wins, and Indy-Titans tie! Three way 9-6-1 for the last spot.
And last, can’t have both PIT and BAL make the playoffs — one of them wins the division, the other is out.
Right, a tie here - esp since it will likely be the flexed game - would be wild.
Edit - and if three teams all finish 9-6-1 I believe Indy gets in based on conference record
not true - but IND/TEN are not going to tie, so basically true
one thing I'm not sure I want - if BAL & JAX win, BAL gets the 3 seed and is in line to play us.
Hmm, I’ll need to think about this. I mean, I know I could look it up somewhere, but sometimes working it out yourself is fun... this scenario I think also requires a Baltimore tie, for both PIT and BAL to make it?
If IND/TEN tie wouldn't IND get the tiebreaker between them since they won the first matchup? Then it would come down to IND/PIT. Head-to-head doesn't apply, they'd be tied in conference record, then it would come down to record in common games (min of 4 common games) then strength of victory followed by strength of schedule.
Yes. Houston has clinched a playoff spot with Pitt’s loss but could still be the 6 with a loss and a non tie in Ind-Tenn
Can the Pats fall to 4th seed or is it 2/3 only?
That’s right. That’s a lot of looking stuff up!
Um, if Pats and Titans are division winners at 10-6 they can get the 4
If Pats lose and BAL and HOU win, we’re the 4 and HOU is the 2
Edit - and what Red said
Yes, patriots loss plus Baltimore and Houston win equals fourth. I don’t know the various scenarios of three slash four way ties if Houston ties for the division after losing.
and according to the playoff machine, PIT would win the common opponent record tiebreaker over IND in the scenario described. And I think it would be in no small part because we beat IND but not PIT.
Pats could fall to 4th with a loss and Ravens win (assuming Texans also win). Ravens would win tiebreaker based on conference record (8-4 vs 7-5)
Looks like Baltimore can’t get a wild card anymore - Baltimore wins or Steelers lose and they get the North.
I'd rather see Pittsburgh in the playoffs over Baltimore be ause they worry me much less, but I really want to see the Steelers miss the playoffs...
Quite the dilemma.
Hm. Pittsburgh still worries me. I’d rather them just miss the playoffs altogether.
I'd be much more worried about phantom DPI calls against PIT than BAL. BAL is also much easier to game plan against on defense. NE could play man cover 1/0 80% of the game against BAL.
It would be a slugfest for sure but I think NE matches up better against BAL than PIT.
From a competitive standpoint — the potential to do damage in the playoffs — Pittsburgh being out while Indy/Tenn is in: is a joke.
But the system is the system.
Philly/Wash has been moved to 4:25 next week. If KC loses, they’ll move to 4:25.
Armchair NFL @ArmchairNFL 3m3 minutes ago
The following games have been flexed into later time slots for Week 17: Bears at Vikings - 4:25 ET Eagles at Redskins - 4:25 ET Browns at Ravens - 4:25 ET Bengals at Steelers - 4:25 ET Colts at Titans - 8:25 ET
You are what your record says you are. Indy is good, anyway. Tennessee is a little iffier, their offense is laughable. Mariota is a calamity under center. But maybe Gabbert can get it done. Or maybe not.
Steelers have 2 wins against playoff teams: Pats and 1-1 vs Baltimore. Also lost to KC Saints and Chargers. 2-4 against playoff teams plus a loss to Denver and Oakland and a tie against the Browns. Big whoop if they can do damage.
I am not arguing the result should be different. You know going in that each game is precious. You know this at the beginning of the season.
Pittsburgh would annihilate Tennessee on a neutral field.
Agreed, Tennessee has done it with mirrors and magic wands. They are like the Giants from a couple of years ago. Easy schedule, a couple of close wins and they squeak into the playoffs and then get destroyed.
Pitt seems to play down to the level of their competition, not unlike a lot of teams.
They won 3 games by more than 10 and lost one game by more than 10 and every other game was decided by 7 or less. They would probably beat TN but I doubt they would annihilate them.
They lost in Oakland, that is pretty close to a neutral field no?
Yes. And the Pats got destroyed @Jax, Det and Tenn, and the last play @Mia will probably cost them the 1 seed.
And the difference between @KC and @NE in a final AFC game is night and day.
So shit happens.
i see it 2 ways
A 1 KC 2 NE 3 HOU 4 BALT 5 LAC 6 INDY OR B 1 KC 2 HOU 3 NE 4 PITT 5 LAC 6 TENN
Baltimore is a nightmare matchup in the playoffs. Their biggest strength is running the ball and the Pats have had various games they've given up 8 yards a carry. No fucking thanks. I could see Jackson having a Kaepernick v Packers performance against the Pats.
So we need to be Broncos and raiders fans next week?
Both of them win and we get the number 1 seed?
No, I think the Chargers win the 3rd tie-breaker vs. Pats. Best Pats can do is 2 seed.
What about three way with the chargers and Texans?
Edit: pointing out your premise that LAC win the tiebreaker for the division is incorrect.
NYT simulator says patriots get 1 seed if all three KC LAC NE are tied. I don’t know the math.
Edit: it’s because KC would win the division and the Patriots would win the H2H tiebreaker with either KC ir KC/HOU.
3 way Pats/Texans/Chiefs tiebreaker has the seeding in that order.
No, the AFC West tiebreaker happens first because they are same division, so KC wins that, then we beat KC. So if KC and SD lose and we win, Pats are one seed.
Yes and if HOU is included in that grouping they would be the #2 seed with KC the #3 seed LAC #5 seed.
Basically as long as NE/KC/LAC are all tied NE is #1 seed because KC wins tie-breaker over LAC and NE has tiebreaker over KC.
I’d like to have the payout on a Denver/Oakland/NE win parlay.
NYT playoff scenario thingy disagrees and says NE gets #1 seed in this scenario.
If it's Indy at Houston and LA at Baltimore with KC 1 NE 2 there's a decent shot that the Divisional Round could be Indy at KC which would be a great matchup for the Pats' chances to host the AFC title game. The Chargers or Ravens would be a tough matchup for the Pats offense however.
The games NE have been gashed on the ground are mostly the games where they faced quality QBs and stayed with a lighter box. PIT/MN/GB all come to mind with MIA as an outlier.
BAL is so one dimensional that I think NE could do enough to slow that running game. They could play cover 1/0 vast majority of the game and keep 9 in the box. Lamar Jackson is a terrible passer. I'd like my chances going up against him in the playoffs. Much more so than an LAC team that is extremely well balanced on offense.
TEN and IND are both win and in, plus a Houston loss for the division.
MIN is in with a win OR philly loss. Philly is obviously the flip side.
Rams get the #2 with a win or bears loss.
Saints locked into 1, Dallas locked into 4.
Seattle win or Vikings loss for the 5, otherwise 6.
Not a lot of drama in the NFC.
Looking at a possible playoff TV schedule if KC/NE and NO/LAR are the top 4 seeds
4:30 Indy at Houston ABC/ESPN
8:15 Minnesota at Chicago NBC
1:00 LA Chargers at Baltimore CBS
4:25 Seattle at Dallas FOX
4:30 Chicago at LA Rams NBC
8:15 Baltimore/LA Chargers at Patriots CBS
1:00 Indy at KC CBS
4:25 Seattle/Dallas at New Orleans FOX
PFT has been running these updates all weekend. Here is how things sit tonight —
Most striking feature — if KC loses at home to the Raiders and LAC beat Denver, the Chiefs drop 4 seeds, from 1 to 5.
1. KC 11-4 (OAK)
2. New England 10-5 (NYJ)
3. Houston 10-5 (JAX)
4. Baltimore 9-6 (CLE)
5. LA Chargers 11-4 (@DEN)
6. Indy 9-6 (@TEN)
Tennessee 9-6 (IND)
Pittsburgh 8-6-1 (CIN)
If I post enough times I’ll get one right eventually... SuperNomario though is a different story.
There are five difficult outs this year if the playoff picture holds in the AFC (all expect for IND/TEN)
Chargers, Ravens, and Texans are all well balanced squads. (Pit is too but inconsistent)
The Patriots are a well balanced squad too but never at the same time. If this team can ever fire on all cylinders at the same time they will be competitive against anyone in the playoffs and/or Super Bowl. They just haven’t done that.
KC isn’t well balanced but even with the Hunt fiasco they still have a potent offense and likely HFA. Road defense against KC is enough of a disadvantage that KC is dangerous too.
I don’t know what to expect from this team. It’s been a weird season. If they went a roll it wouldn’t surprise me. But it wouldn’t surprise me if they laid an egg either. Seems like everything has been leading up to a road loss in the playoffs.