I know it's a "hot take", but Brady's last two playoff games:
27-56 (48.2%), 310 yds, 1 td, 2 int, 56.4 rating
18-38 (47.4%), 287 yds, 2 td, 2 int, 68.6 rating
In his 32 playoff games, here's the distribution of Brady's QB ratings:
120.0 or higher: 3 times (9.4%, 3-0)
110.0-119.9: 3 times (9.4%, 3-0)
100.0-109.9: 5 times (15.6%, 5-0)
90.0-99.9: 4 times (12.5%, 2-2)
80.0-89.9: 4 times (12.5%, 2-2)
70.0-79.9: 6 times (18.8%, 4-2)
69.9 or less: 7 times (21.9%, 4-3)
Not shocking that when Brady is good, the Patriots virtually never lose in the playoffs. When he's average or poor, it's a little more dicey. Common sense. It's actually a testimony to Belichick and the entire team that the Pats are 8-5 in playoff games when Brady has been bad.
He's had 17 games with a passer rating below 90.0, and 15 games with a passer rating of 90.0 or higher, which I found to be a little surprising. He's been below 80.0 13 out of 32 times (40.6%).
So I hate to say it, but when people analyze these playoff games, to suggest that Brady could have a poor game is hardly foolish. It's a real thing to consider.
That said, I expect him to be pretty good against Pittsburgh on Sunday, but we shouldn't at all be shocked if he isn't.