Hope so, to quote the previous poster. Before this game I was certain of it. And when he banged home the long one I felt reassured. Then came the the hooked PAT and the squeak thru 31 yarder and I'm at hope so, fingers crossed, etcI wonder if the change in his kickoff style (priorizing height instead of just driving it) has caused some mechanical shift that's affecting his field goals.
Good, I was going to ask you. Drop something in here when you're finished please. I'd like to take a look.It's likely a small mechanical fix, and I'll hopefully have more later this week.
AND he doen't like the field in Denver AND in Miami AND in Cleveland?Anyone else watch the pre-game on CSN? Mike Giardi (or maybe Tom E. Curran) said they Ghost does not like the new field. Evidently it's softer than the previous turf. I guess the Patriots aren't fans but the Revolution really like it... priorities
Indeed, because that stuff is so hard to find, what with the sidebar on the forum homepage and the URL and twitter and facebook and such.Good, I was going to ask you. Drop something in here when you're finished please. I'd like to take a look.
Hypothetically, if they went the South Dakota State route, their kicker is Chase Vinatieri...Adam's nephew.And don't be surprised to see a 4th round pick next year go for some kicker from South Dakota you never heard of.
Is there a reason you guys aren't linking your articles any more? Excellent work here on GhostSo I've done a little more digging, and it's not quite as small of a fix as I thought. The miss against CIN almost suggest injury because his mechanics were so out of character, but there's some funky stuff going on there, which you normally don't see from Ghost. It's not that he can't or won't fix it - if there's one guy you can bet can self-diagnose, it's him. But it's really strange to see from him, because normally his misses are still clean mechanics but just bad timing or slight wrinkles. This is a very different swing than I've seen from him previously, and it's causing some problems. I'll have something out by Thursday.
Somehow I completely missed the forum sidebar. Good to know. Again, nice work on the article, Chuck.Mostly because we've branched out to doing more NFL-wide stuff, and generally found it didn't get quite the same reception here as Pats-oriented articles. That's why we decided to go with the forum sidebar, rather than manually dropping in every article. But I was just coming to drop off that one, so glad you found it already.
If it's screwing with his mechanics it certainly can.It wouldn't be affecting him outside of Gillette.
Seriously. That is great work, and gives me clear stuff to look at during games. Thanks!Wow. Really good work there Chuck.
Just seconding this -- fantastic work. Thank you.Seriously. That is great work, and gives me clear stuff to look at during games. Thanks!
Is Bill willing to pay him the highest salary in the league for average performance? That will be the off season question.Let's keep in mind that at this point, Gostkowsk is 9-12 on FG and 19-21 on XP. The former is one make away from being league average for the last 5 years, and the latter is in line with league average on XP last year. This is what everyone else sees in the NFL. You aren't going to find a better replacement, and it's not like it's been a train wreck. We've really just been spoiled.
That's not really the point of this thread though. If Brady were playing at just below league average, we'd still be in the right to wonder if he's injured or if he's on the back of his career. We shouldn't just accept it because that's what everyone else is used to.This is what everyone else sees in the NFL. You aren't going to find a better replacement, and it's not like it's been a train wreck. We've really just been spoiled.
So what would you propose?That's not really the point of this thread though. If Brady were playing at just below league average, we'd still be in the right to wonder if he's injured or if he's on the back of his career. We shouldn't just accept it because that's what everyone else is used to.
No, it isn't. 19-21 would've been bottom five in the league last year, and is in the same range this year. It may be a smallish sample size, but if it's kept up, it's not acceptable.Let's keep in mind that at this point, Gostkowsk is 9-12 on FG and 19-21 on XP. The former is one make away from being league average for the last 5 years, and the latter is in line with league average on XP last year. This is what everyone else sees in the NFL.
It actually would have been bottom 8 in the league and within less than 1% of 4 other kickers, including Adam Vinatieri and Steven Hauschka, and within one standard deviation of the league average, meaning there's no statistical difference. Is this really the hill we want to die on here?No, it isn't. 19-21 would've been bottom five in the league last year, and is in the same range this year. It may be a smallish sample size, but if it's kept up, it's not acceptable.
Sure, I'll die on it. It would have been bottom five among qualified kickers, and bottom six among all players according to ESPN stats.It actually would have been bottom 8 in the league and within less than 1% of 4 other kickers, including Adam Vinatieri and Steven Hauschka, and within one standard deviation of the league average, meaning there's no statistical difference. Is this really the hill we want to die on here?
Sometimes it's fluke stuff, sometimes it's slight variations in mechanics, sometimes it's a complete breakdown. Usually, it's fluke stuff like near-misses where most of the mechanics are clean but just slightly mistimed.IK - I haven't read your article yet, so forgive me if I missed this, but in the modern era, what leads elite kickers to underperform and how quickly can a dropoff come? I can't imagine it's like RBs where they get old overnight. It's got to be injury or mental right or just SSS right?
I assume he's had the same mechanics for at least a decade. With no injury, how hard would it be to get back in form?Sometimes it's fluke stuff, sometimes it's slight variations in mechanics, sometimes it's a complete breakdown. Usually, it's fluke stuff like near-misses where most of the mechanics are clean but just slightly mistimed.
With Gostkowski, there are some bigger flaws there that are unusual. The turf stuff may be a real factor here, but Gostkowski looks out of whack with mechanics that are a little unusual for him, and it is something I'm concerned about. But there is also enough data there to show that even with the issues he's had, he's still better than any option on the free agent wire, and still has a strong enough track record for me to give him another 6-8 games to recover before saying this is who he is going forward.
Hard to say how long it could be until it clicks. It's like watching Big Papi going through a slump. Sometimes it takes a few months to get going and get back in rhythm, sometimes it takes a couple weeks. But this is a guy who has been 15-18 points per year above average over the last 3 years, so I'm going to give him a sizable amount of rope to figure out what's wrong. It's a lot like the Justin Tucker situation from last year, where he ended up with just above 82% accuracy, also slightly below-average for the year, then got the biggest guaranteed dollar contact for a specialist ever, and is now 18-for-18 on the year and also hasn't missed an extra point. This shit happens with kickers from time to time, even good ones.I assume he's had the same mechanics for at least a decade. With no injury, how hard would it be to get back in form?
My understanding is that Shayne Graham is available as well.Well that Arizona guy will probably be available and among the best of alternatives.
I think there is still an open question as to whether yesterday's misses were due to the same mechanical issues, or whether they were due to field/stadium conditions in a place were kickers go to die, or a combination. And the winds can be pretty crazy in Buffalo, which means we probably will not have conclusive answers until after the bye week.Its historically a tough place to kick, but read the ITP article if you haven't done so yet. It presents a pretty clear picture of his mechanical issues.