Aaron Hernandez charged with 1st degree murder; released by Patriots

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dcmissle

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dcmissle said:
Sealing order evaporates at 2:00 pm today absent the prosecution or defense getting emergency relief.
 
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/07/09/judge-orders-release-of-hernandez-search-warrants-affidavits/
 
Which will be like chumming with mackerel off Cape Cod in the summer.
 
Who will be the first -- Curran or Felger -- to argue that Kraft met with the press yesterday to avoid detailed questioning today?
 
Which one is smarter? Kraft's no dummy, I'll bet you ten internet points there's some kind of crisis consulting/PR firm helping the Pats with this, and timing Kraft's meeting is a pretty big deal in this context.
 

dcmissle

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This is interesting.
 
Those crisis/PR firms will tell you 99 times out of 100 that you can't say nothing because you can't allow others to frame the story.  That should come as no surprise -- those firms have a vested economic interest in your saying something.
 
In this case, I believe the storm had died, at least temporarily.  Kraft's statement yesterday served, at least temporarily, to bring it back to life to the point that it is now on the first page of every electronic news medium.
 
So what's the motivation?  I think it's as simple as Kraft believing that speaking out is the right thing to do.  If you want to be a bit more cynical, you can accurately say he is very concerned about protecting the Patriots' brand.
 
A more sinister view -- one that I think will be advanced by either or both of these guys -- will gain traction is there is some Patriots' specific stuff in the affidavits suggesting that the team should have been at DEFCON 4, at least, with AH.  My guess is that there will be no such stuff, but that's not going to stop the argument.
 
If he was going to speak, I agree that yesterday was the day.  It was Kraft's first full day back in the country, and you really don't want him anywhere near opining on AH's guilt or innocence.  Kraft handled himself well yesterday in this regard, but all the crap about to be released will provide more fodder for questions going in that direction.
 
EDIT -- Two other interesting nuggets from yesterday's session, via the Globe:
 
Kraft didn’t say whether the team will be less willing in the future to take on players with character risks, but “you can be sure we’ll be looking at our procedures and auditing how we do things.”
 
I think the most likely answer to this will be "yes".  This is the one area on the personnel side where the owner can trump the GM and the GM really doesn't have much in the way of legitimate complaint.  Add AH to the Dennard near miss and come to your own conclusions.
 
Kraft said the incident has cast a pall over the organization over the past two weeks, and he worries that it could be a big distraction during training camp, which begins on July 25.
 
“Everything we don’t want is happening,” he said.
 
A fair number of posters played this down, but I think Kraft is worried sick about it.  The team has done about everything it can by its actions and his statements to diminish the chances of a downward spiral.  In my non- expert view, they now would be wise to get out of the commentary business.
 

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Shelterdog said:
Which one is smarter? Kraft's no dummy, I'll bet you ten internet points there's some kind of crisis consulting/PR firm helping the Pats with this, and timing Kraft's meeting is a pretty big deal in this context.
 
I thought I read/heard yesterday that Kraft spoke against the advice of his lawyers.
 

dcmissle

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Corsi said:
I thought I read/heard yesterday that Kraft spoke against the advice of his lawyers.
 
Yes, but Bob was being a bit too self congratulatory about that to suit my taste.  Lawyers will tell you 99.999% of the time to say nothing because they are risk adverse above everything and there is little to be gained from it.  Anything that makes our jobs more challenging tends to piss us off.
 
Here, there are decent legal reasons to remain silent, most notably not throwing AH under the bus in terms of his legal jeopardy.  But I think the risk of talking is overblown in this instance.
 

crystalline

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Corsi said:
 
I thought I read/heard yesterday that Kraft spoke against the advice of his lawyers.
He didn't say he spoke against the advice of his PR firm, though. It is likely there is a crisis management team consisting of lawyers and PR pros. Kraft as the owner of a $1B business at significant risk from this incident would be irresponsible to not have such a team.
 

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dcmissle said:
Sealing order evaporates at 2:00 pm today absent the prosecution or defense getting emergency relief.
 
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/07/09/judge-orders-release-of-hernandez-search-warrants-affidavits/
 
Which will be like chumming with mackerel off Cape Cod in the summer.
 
Who will be the first -- Curran or Felger -- to argue that Kraft met with the press yesterday to avoid detailed questioning today?
Curran did it yesterday. He was very bitter not to be invited to the sit-down, it seems.
 

crystalline

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Added: in terms of business risk due to reputation it is hard to imagine worse public info release. This is far worse than the F1 boss and Nazi porn (morally terrible but he was replaced at little cost) and on the level of the HP CEO and sleeping with a subordinate and hamhanded investigations.
Hernandez is a public figure out front during football games, and the entertainment business requires customers to like the players they watch. The potential risk could be very high.
HP is a larger business and it turns out that their successor CEO was ineffective so that was probably more costly. Still it's hard for me to imagine another case where an employee's criminal actions could carry so much potential monetary risk due to PR fallout.
 

mt8thsw9th

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Ed Hillel said:
Curran did it yesterday. He was very bitter not to be invited to the sit-down, it seems.
 
Maybe Kraft didn't want to invite a reporter who's been known to get drunk and tweet out dickpix. Those types are best served as inside linebackers. 
 

Ralphwiggum

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crystalline said:
Added: in terms of business risk due to reputation it is hard to imagine worse public info release. This is far worse than the F1 boss and Nazi porn (morally terrible but he was replaced at little cost) and on the level of the HP CEO and sleeping with a subordinate and hamhanded investigations.
Hernandez is a public figure out front during football games, and the entertainment business requires customers to like the players they watch. The potential risk could be very high.
HP is a larger business and it turns out that their successor CEO was ineffective so that was probably more costly. Still it's hard for me to imagine another case where an employee's criminal actions could carry so much potential monetary risk due to PR fallout.
 
I don't think in the NFL fans are required to like the players they watch, it is too hard to like all of them given the types of guys who frequent NFL rosters and the fact that there are 60-something guys on each team.  Plus they cut him pretty much immediately anyway so no Patriot fan is required to root for him anymore.  Beyond that I am not sure your point holds with regards to team sports at all.  I think the overriding requirement is that the team has to be good, and the fans will show up and root for the laundry, pretty much regardless of who they are off-the-field (except in extreme cases, like this one, where the team has to cut ties).  Maybe I am missing your point, though.
 
Not to say that this wasn't a PR issue for the Pats, it certainly was, but I'm not seeing how it translates into any significant long-term issue for the Pats' bottom-line.
 

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Ralphwiggum said:
I don't think in the NFL fans are required to like the players they watch, it is too hard to like all of them given the types of guys who frequent NFL rosters and the fact that there are 60-something guys on each team.  Plus they cut him pretty much immediately anyway so no Patriot fan is required to root for him anymore.  Beyond that I am not sure your point holds with regards to team sports at all.  I think the overriding requirement is that the team has to be good, and the fans will show up and root for the laundry, pretty much regardless of who they are off-the-field (except in extreme cases, like this one, where the team has to cut ties).  Maybe I am missing your point, though.
 
Not to say that this wasn't a PR issue for the Pats, it certainly was, but I'm not seeing how it translates into any significant long-term issue for the Pats' bottom-line.
 
It may be that your team is more valuable if you're regarded as a clean franchise (the Packers, for example) then if you're the Raiders. Who knows the precise economics but it may be that having a family (and corporate-friendly) brand is more profitable than being the Spygate/drunk Gronk/murdering Hernandez Patriots. 
 

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Shelterdog said:
It may be that your team is more valuable if you're regarded as a clean franchise (the Packers, for example) then if you're the Raiders. Who knows the precise economics but it may be that having a family (and corporate-friendly) brand is more profitable than being the Spygate/drunk Gronk/murdering Hernandez Patriots. 
 
The Patriots were estimated to be the 2nd most valuable franchise in the NFL in 2011, according to Forbes ($1.6B vs Dallas at $2.1B).   I doubt much has changed.   Brady retiring and a few 3-13 seasons might ding the value a bit.
 

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Rudy Pemberton said:
What does the value of the team really matter, though, unless Kraft is selling? Is the Hernandez debacle more damaging to the brand than Spygate, for example? If it leads to them having trouble selling tickets, merchandise, and sponsorships- than I can see a case being made. But I haven't really seen any reason to believe that it's true, at all.
 
It doesn't have to be immediate.  The Pats are not having a hard time selling out because they are awesome.  The hope is that the goodwill created during the awesome years can sustain them through the lean ones, which inevitably come in sports, especially in a capped league.
 

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According to an affidavit attached to search warrants unsealed Tuesday, Hernandez approached police after noticing them parked outside his North Attleborough, Mass., home on June 17, the day Odin Lloyd's body was found.
 
Police say they asked him about an SUV he had rented. The documents say Hernandez told them he rented it for Lloyd and had last seen him in Boston the day before.
 
The affidavit then said Hernandez became argumentative, asked "what's with all the questions?" and locked the door of his house behind him.
 
http://espn.go.com/boston/nfl/story/_/id/9463619/aaron-hernandez-initially-argumentative-police-say
 

vadertime

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The affidavit then said Hernandez became argumentative, asked "what's with all the questions?" and locked the door of his house behind him
 
 
Which is exactly the reaction (or at least very similar) every person should have unless there’s a warrant/court order and/or they’ve talked to a lawyer. 
 

mauidano

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vadertime said:
Which is exactly the reaction (or at least very similar) every person should have unless there’s a warrant/court order and/or they’ve talked to a lawyer. 
Which is exactly what he did.  I'd slam that door too, guilty or not.  Came out 10 minutes later presumably after discussing with his attorney and agreed to answer questions at the local police station.  I'd venture to say Hernandez wasn't surprised though.
 

Stitch01

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dcmissle said:
This is interesting.
 
Those crisis/PR firms will tell you 99 times out of 100 that you can't say nothing because you can't allow others to frame the story.  That should come as no surprise -- those firms have a vested economic interest in your saying something.
 
In this case, I believe the storm had died, at least temporarily.  Kraft's statement yesterday served, at least temporarily, to bring it back to life to the point that it is now on the first page of every electronic news medium.
 
So what's the motivation?  I think it's as simple as Kraft believing that speaking out is the right thing to do.  If you want to be a bit more cynical, you can accurately say he is very concerned about protecting the Patriots' brand.
 
A more sinister view -- one that I think will be advanced by either or both of these guys -- will gain traction is there is some Patriots' specific stuff in the affidavits suggesting that the team should have been at DEFCON 4, at least, with AH.  My guess is that there will be no such stuff, but that's not going to stop the argument.
 
If he was going to speak, I agree that yesterday was the day.  It was Kraft's first full day back in the country, and you really don't want him anywhere near opining on AH's guilt or innocence.  Kraft handled himself well yesterday in this regard, but all the crap about to be released will provide more fodder for questions going in that direction.
 
EDIT -- Two other interesting nuggets from yesterday's session, via the Globe:
 
 
I think the most likely answer to this will be "yes".  This is the one area on the personnel side where the owner can trump the GM and the GM really doesn't have much in the way of legitimate complaint.  Add AH to the Dennard near miss and come to your own conclusions.
 
 
A fair number of posters played this down, but I think Kraft is worried sick about it.  The team has done about everything it can by its actions and his statements to diminish the chances of a downward spiral.  In my non- expert view, they now would be wise to get out of the commentary business.
 
Sorry to quote the whole thing to respond to one point, I had a hard time quoting one line, but I really hope the lesson learned isnt dont take character risks with lower round draft picks.  Obviously try not to pick murderers, but I dont want them passing over low risk/high reward guys who were immature or who might have smoked some weed in college or even who might have had one incident where they punched a cop.
 
If they examine anything, they should examine the process that determines who gets big money extensions or who what gets players taken off the draft board as a 1st round pick.  The low risk part of the equation isnt the same for those decisions, they should examine their evaluation process there.  Not sure they need to make big changes, but worth revisiting the process given the mistake made here.  If they hadnt extended Hernandez, he still would have turned out to be a good pick even if he is a total scumbag.
 
I would argue with calling Dennard a near miss.  I dont think 7th round picks can be misses, they're basically lottery tickets.  Dennard could have gotten ten years in prison in February and he still would have been a good use of a 7th round pick just based on what they got out of him last season. Late round picks can be cut with little financial cost and little opportunity cost (teams don't build their roster assuming a 5th round guy is going to play a meaningful role), the risk/reward still works there even if you end up drafting some bad dudes as long as you are willing to cut bait when appropriate.   
 

dcmissle

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I don't think Kraft parses things that way.  Indeed, I don't even think it's mainly about brand protection, much less cold blooded roster filling.
 
I think it's impossible to understand fully Kraft's reaction to this unless you bring front and center the guy whose love for the team is personal -- a fan whose ass was planted on cold aluminum seats for years, and who made a daring (indeed, in his view,  perhaps a financially reckless) bid for the team to save it from St. Louis.
 
From a cost/benefit standpoint, Minihane has it exactly right, I think.  Yesterday's interview gained Kraft nothing, and has only bumped this story to the top of every media outlet.
 
http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/football/patriots/kirk-minihane/2013/07/09/bob-kraft-finally-talked-he-really-didnt-ha
 
But I don't think he gives a rat's ass because Kraft is talking from the heart and felt an obligation to his fellow fans.  Which makes the mindless media criticism even more infuriating to me.
 
He's not a young man.  I'm sure this has shaken him to his core -- especially how effectively they were "duped".  AH played him like a violin.
 
So I can easily imagine him instructing "no mas" on the doubtful character guys.  Which is not to say that every draftee will be a guy from BYU not named Jim McMahon.  But guys who probably would have made the board in recent years will probably be off it going forward.
 

kolbitr

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There had been some media rumors that there would be some new and damning information in today's documents. Damning toward AH and the Pats. Now, obvious media hyperbole aside (Curran: they're going down!) I don't see anything particularly new in this at all, save for the crying of the girlfriend, a slammed door, and the scale in the safe. Am I missing something, Sosh attorneys and crime experts?
 

Stitch01

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Its his team so its his perogative, but it would be bad for us as Patriots fans.
 
Tightening the off-the-field screen and passing on the Hernandez's, Dillon's and Dennard's of the world in a situation where the team can have a one strike policy will reduce the chances of winning games and championships going forward. 
 
They'll still end up with bad guys on the team since they're certainly not infallible judges of character.
 

dcmissle

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kolbitr said:
There had been some media rumors that there would be some new and damning information in today's documents. Damning toward AH and the Pats. Now, obvious media hyperbole aside (Curran: they're going down!) I don't see anything particularly new in this at all, save for the crying of the girlfriend, a slammed door, and the scale in the safe. Am I missing something, Sosh attorneys and crime experts?
 
 
There is nothing much new in the link posted by soxfan, and certainly nothing Patriots specific.
 
I saw elsewhere that on the eve of the murder, a witness in the bar saw AH with a handgun tucked into his waist.  That's where I suspect this will go -- there was so much smoke somebody should have suspected a fire.  Some of the media are pushing a belief that the NFL teams are so tightly wired to FBI and law enforcement sources that they can get progress reports on guys at the push of a button.
 
Here's the bottom line: there was no plausible incentive for the Pats to overlook anything, either before or after last August.  Unless you think they are into self mutiliation or something similar.
 

kolbitr

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Good catch about the onlooker's claim about the gun in the waistband--that was new, too. It was recently, no, and after the season? Not exactly damning. You would never know it from today's media coverage, though...
 

dcmissle

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kolbitr said:
Good catch about the onlooker's claim about the gun in the waistband--that was new, too. It was recently, no, and after the season? Not exactly damning. You would never know it from today's media coverage, though...
 
Yes, reportedly a day or two before the killing.
 
Now back to the Florida guy who lost an eye and is scheduled to appear before the grand jury next Wednesday.  There is some discussion about that upthread.
 
Well we all know the authorities don't have the gun, and it has been reported by those looking at the documents released today that the affidavits and so forth do not even attempt to identify "the shooter".  Now this exculpates no one, but how useful it could be to secure an indictment to have a guy testify that AH shot him in the face.  None of that would be admitted at trial absent an egregious error by the defense team (see above), but first things first from the prosecutor's standpoint -- the indictment.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Has anyone found a link yet to the released documents?  Or is the press just reading them and telling us what they say they say, instead of letting us read them?
 

soxfan121

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dcmissle said:
Well we all know the authorities don't have the gun, and it has been reported by those looking at the documents released today that the affidavits and so forth do not even attempt to identify "the shooter".  Now this exculpates no one, but how useful it could be to secure an indictment to have a guy testify that AH shot him in the face.  None of that would be admitted at trial absent an egregious error by the defense team (see above), but first things first from the prosecutor's standpoint -- the indictment.
 
For a "strong case" (and the Judge is going to regret that, even if it turns out of be the strongest case ever), it's pretty funny that the prosecution needs to import the allegedly shot-in-the-face-found-at-a-John-Deere=dealership guy, where there is no arrest (or police report mentioning AH?) and only a $100K civil lawsuit. 
 
After looking through the write-up on the paperwork, it's pretty clear the investigators were upset by Hernandez's behavior and lack of cooperation. Which is unprofessional and rather stupid for the investigators - that sequence of events is something every lawyer in the world would recommend to a client. 
 
It's overwhelmingly obvious that Hernandez was involved in this crime, somehow. Whether that involvement meets the threshold for "first degree murder" is really questionable, based on the evidence. A competent defense attorney could create reasonable doubt in a jury if this is all the prosecution has to work with. 
 

twibnotes

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The whole thing that seems crazy to me is that the Pats clearly didn't so any kind of investigative work on him before giving him the big extension- I think I had this idea that teams know what their players are doing / hanging out with, etc but that seems naive in retrospect. Here's a guy making millions of dollars an still spending his time going to shady clubs and commiserating with characters well below his pay grade. I guess once a thug, always one.


This raises an interesting thought: I imagine some of the more responsible guys on the team (eg, Brady, light, wilfork) were less surprised than Kraft to find that Hernandez was up to some sketchy stuff. Still, do you think there is any precedent for a GM or coach asking a player, say Brady, whether Hernandez is a guy worth extending? I would think that is a line you don't cross, but I also do believe the players knew more about hernandez than bb or Kraft. Just food for thought...
 

kolbitr

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This raises an interesting thought: I imagine some of the more responsible guys on the team (eg, Brady, light, wilfork) were less surprised than Kraft to find that Hernandez was up to some sketchy stuff. Still, do you think there is any precedent for a GM or coach asking a player, say Brady, whether Hernandez is a guy worth extending? I would think that is a line you don't cross, but I also do believe the players knew more about hernandez than bb or Kraft. Just food for thought...


Possible, but...it has been reported that AH spent little to no time with his teammates outside work/practice. Although no current players have spoken, Branch and Chung have both expressed their shock, saying he was a great guy. Certainly possible that he had a dual nature.

Matt Light's comments from two weeks ago were so vague as to be unenlightening. He never believed in anything Hernandez stood for--like what? Weed, clubbing, tatts, stepping out? Being a young punk with a temper? Or should we understand that the old fogey Matt Light was privy to stuff that Deion Branch wasn't? I mean, maybe, but I'm inclined to believe that Deion knew him better, and that Deion is an honest guy. Matt Light seems like a good guy too, but it's possible that whatever he hated about AH is pretty irrelevant here...
 

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uncannymanny said:
This is one of the 3 guys in the car, no? Why would he need to be told?
 
From the article:
 
Ortiz told police that, after picking up Lloyd, the four men headed
back to North Attleborough. Along the way, Hernandez told Lloyd that
Lloyd had been "chilling" with people Hernandez had problems with, the
documents said. But Ortiz told police that the two men shook hands and
the problem seemed smoothed over. But soon the car stopped, and everyone
but Ortiz got out to urinate, according to Ortiz's account.

The witness also told police he then heard gunshots before Hernandez
and Wallace got back into the car without Lloyd and the vehicle sped
away.

Wallace faces an accessory to murder charge in the case and has pleaded not guilty.
 

soxfan121

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Rudy Pemberton said:
Sounds like a story designed to try to cover Ortiz's ass. Not buying it.
 
At the very least, it sets up the "he did it!" finger-pointing game amongst all three suspects. Which the defense can make use of in front of a jury. 
 

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soxfan121 said:
At the very least, it sets up the "he did it!" finger-pointing game amongst all three suspects. Which the defense can make use of in front of a jury. 
 
Except in many cases, the laws are written to make all three guilty, so the finger-pointing over who actually pulled the trigger amounts to burying all of them.
 

uncannymanny

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Sounds like a story designed to try to cover Ortiz's ass. Not buying it.


Yeah I don't buy the "everyone needed to piss but me" bit, but to loop back to some of the discussion earlier, I wonder if the shaking-and-making-up is true and then they caught him texting the "just so you know" stuff and decided he just couldn't be trusted enough to let him go.
 

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Wasn't it also reported that they shot him so close to the car that his weight fell on the side mirror, snapping it off? How close to the car were they peeing?
 

ForceAtHome

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Jnai said:
Wasn't it also reported that they shot him so close to the car that his weight fell on the side mirror, snapping it off? How close to the car were they peeing?
 
The mirror was reportedly broken off, but I don't know if the mirror snapping off was confirmed to have happened because of Lloyd's body weight. However, there was also the bullet casing found by the rental agent under the driver's seat of Hernandez's rental. It makes the "non-witness story" pretty suspect.
 

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Jnai said:
Wasn't it also reported that they shot him so close to the car that his weight fell on the side mirror, snapping it off?
 
That was my hypothesis upthread. I haven't seen any confirmation yet.
 

riboflav

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Rudy Pemberton said:
You think that this is a problem for the prosecution?
 
Well, they have no murder weapon and no motive and conflicting narratives, and perhaps no witnesses. So, when the defense team (very well-funded defense team) said it was a circumstantial case, they may not have been kidding.
 
EDIT: I'm no expert it should be noted.
 
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