A Dream of 2025, What is Going Right and Looks like the Sox can Build On

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

If Grissom doesn't pan out, I wouldn't be surprised if the Sox move Wong to 2B if/when Teel is ready to assume full-time catching duties.

This would surprise me. He's been pretty damn good at the plate this season so far (SSS) and I think he's a better defender than the numbers give him credit- and I can't think of a defensive position that rating it by any measure other than holding runners/throwing out is anything other than subjective. There's too much pitcher and game calling that affects actual catching and framing. But besides that, more likely McGuire gets traded and Teel and Wong share C duties his first season up. If Teel is looking like a guy who could do 4/5 times through a rotation and Wong is still looking like a starter, then that's a really good trade chip. Moving him to 2B when there's a lot of depth still there in the mL wouldn't be optimizing him--- of course I'm saying this assuming a position change to C would make him at best an average defender.

 

[chawson]

Newsflash--with the amount of emphasis on max effort and increased spin rate in pitching over the last few years every pitcher is going to be a TJ candidate.

If this is true, and I believe it is, why does it make sense for teams to commit a ton of resources to elite starting pitchers in their thirties/past their prime?

Pitching productiveness in the max effort / Driveline era is less of an essential quality inherent in certain individuals (aces or frontline pitchers) than a diffuse. Random pitchers are constantly developing elite pitches or combinations of pitches that they add to their arsenals before they flame out or get hurt. Good pitching today is like the body without organs.

I think this is bad for the game. It's a serious labor concern. More pitchers are flaming out before they are eligible to make real money, and there's a global supply of twenty-something pitchers who can throw 96-100, many of them equipped with great sweepers or 17+ IVB or both, who are ready to replace them — at least, until they flame out too.

It should be fixed. But in the meantime, I don't see much incentive for teams to commit substantial resources to pitchers when the injury rate is this high, not when there's a growing amount of evidence that random middle relief types like Zack Littell, Garrett Crochet, Kutter Crawford, Ronel Blanco and Cristopher Sánchez are a coaching and development tweak away from top of the rotation production.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

If Grissom doesn't pan out, I wouldn't be surprised if the Sox move Wong to 2B if/when Teel is ready to assume full-time catching duties.

I don't think there's a chance of this. The only way I could see it is if Wong somehow manages to make his current line (162 OPS+) his normal offensive production, because then you want him in the lineup as much as possible and 2B provides a path to more games played than catching does. I don't think that's very likely. Wong's not a 2B now because his value is highest as a catcher (even if he's the back-up). The organization is flush with middle infielders in the pipeline and at least one of them will be more valuable and productive as a second baseman than Wong could ever be.

 

[RedOctober3829]

If this is true, and I believe it is, why does it make sense for teams to commit a ton of resources to elite starting pitchers in their thirties/past their prime?

Pitching productiveness in the max effort / Driveline era is less of an essential quality inherent in certain individuals (aces or frontline pitchers) than a diffuse. Random pitchers are constantly developing elite pitches or combinations of pitches that they add to their arsenals before they flame out or get hurt. Good pitching today is like the body without organs.

I think this is bad for the game. It's a serious labor concern. More pitchers are flaming out before they are eligible to make real money, and there's a global supply of twenty-something pitchers who can throw 96-100, many of them equipped with great sweepers or 17+ IVB or both, who are ready to replace them — at least, until they flame out too.

It should be fixed. But in the meantime, I don't see much incentive for teams to commit substantial resources to pitchers when the injury rate is this high, not when there's a growing amount of evidence that random middle relief types like Zack Littell, Garrett Crochet, Kutter Crawford, Ronel Blanco and Cristopher Sánchez are a coaching and development tweak away from top of the rotation production.

There's going to be elite starters that come up in organizations that either don't have the means to pay them or don't want to pay them. A major market organization like the Red Sox has the resources to go out and either make a trade for or sign said pitcher. I tried to hammer this point home this winter when the Snell/Montgomery free agency played out. The Red Sox can do both of draft/develop their own and when the opportunity presents itself go acquire top end talent. The Red Sox should be emulating the Dodgers(not to the extreme they're spending of course but if Henry wants to do that be my guest).

 

[bosockboy]

I don't think there's a chance of this. The only way I could see it is if Wong somehow manages to make his current line (162 OPS+) his normal offensive production, because then you want him in the lineup as much as possible and 2B provides a path to more games played than catching does. I don't think that's very likely. Wong's not a 2B now because his value is highest as a catcher (even if he's the back-up). The organization is flush with middle infielders in the pipeline and at least one of them will be more valuable and productive as a second baseman than Wong could ever be.

Yes, Wong can be a BJ Surhoff-esque Swiss Army knife.

 

[Benj4ever]

This would surprise me. He's been pretty damn good at the plate this season so far (SSS) and I think he's a better defender than the numbers give him credit- and I can't think of a defensive position that rating it by any measure other than holding runners/throwing out is anything other than subjective. There's too much pitcher and game calling that affects actual catching and framing. But besides that, more likely McGuire gets traded and Teel and Wong share C duties his first season up. If Teel is looking like a guy who could do 4/5 times through a rotation and Wong is still looking like a starter, then that's a really good trade chip. Moving him to 2B when there's a lot of depth still there in the mL wouldn't be optimizing him--- of course I'm saying this assuming a position change to C would make him at best an average defender.

True, we don't know what his defense will look like at 2B. If he is an average defender there, then I like him as a bat-first 2B. And, yeah, I'm projecting that his hitting remains solid. I'm not that impressed with Meidroth or Yorke. Maybe there's better value in a trade. We'll see.

 

[chawson]

There's going to be elite starters that come up in organizations that either don't have the means to pay them or don't want to pay them. A major market organization like the Red Sox has the resources to go out and either make a trade for or sign said pitcher. I tried to hammer this point home this winter when the Snell/Montgomery free agency played out. The Red Sox can do both of draft/develop their own and when the opportunity presents itself go acquire top end talent. The Red Sox should be emulating the Dodgers(not to the extreme they're spending of course but if Henry wants to do that be my guest).

I don't think this really answers my question. When we're seeing such rampant injuries to pitchers across the league, and so many examples of seemingly random pitchers transformed into success stories, why does it make more sense to commit resources to top end pitchers as they age into their thirties?

Before anyone chimes in with a moral argument (e.g. John Henry should stop hoarding his money) — I agree with you. I think players should receive a far greater portion of revenues than they currently are and John Henry should give away 98 percent of his wealth to housing cooperatives. Within the parameters of the game, however, it seems like the Red Sox may be wise to focus on developing pitching assets in-house (who are also tradable) instead of committing major resources to the Snells and Montgomerys of the world (whose contracts are instantly underwater and are mostly untradable).

 

[Cassvt2023]

I want to preface this with a caveat: I'm not in favor of this, but it could make some sense.

Why not see what you could fetch in a trade at the deadline or this offseason by dangling Tristan Casas....

* His value may never be higher, and it seems like he is not going to be easy at all to extend.
* Devers could immediately move to 1st base, which would be less wear and tear on his body.
* We are very LHH, at both the major and minor league levels.
* There may be in house options to play a very good 3B, assuming the future at SS and 2B is Mayer and Grissom (Story, Yorke, Meidroth)
* Maybe there is a guy who you could sign to play 3B (Adames) or trade for?
* Casas should be able to bring an absolute hall, including a controllable, top of rotation type SP

It would be a very bold move on Breslow's part, and it would have to be the "perfect deal".

 

[chrisfont9]

The elbow issue you keep bringing up isn’t going away anytime soon. With any pitcher, it’s a risk you’re going to have to take. Until they have a method where they’re really good at drafting and developing starting pitching, they’re going to have to live in the free agent/trade area. Now, they may have that method with Bailey and Willard but it’s going to take a couple of years before we know. In the short-term, they’re going to have to pay for the top level guy. Breslow is going to have to be willing to move prospects if you’re going to trade for someone. He showed little willingness to do that this past offseason.

Yeah. Well those kinds of trades can happen in season too, so I'm not sure that is over, although Cease was the only obvious target and he's off the list now.

 

[chrisfont9]

The new model is what just happened to Snell and Montgomery. Get paid 1-2 years at a time.

I'd say the new model is that this is the norm and the long-term big-money guys are major outliers. Up til this winter at least the agents were trying to flip those presumptions around, and got nowhere, except with the Dodger guys who are definitely outliers.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I want to preface this with a caveat: I'm not in favor of this, but it could make some sense.

Why not see what you could fetch in a trade at the deadline or this offseason by dangling Tristan Casas....

* His value may never be higher, and it seems like he is not going to be easy at all to extend.
* Devers could immediately move to 1st base, which would be less wear and tear on his body.
* We are very LHH, at both the major and minor league levels.
* There may be in house options to play a very good 3B, assuming the future at SS and 2B is Mayer and Grissom (Story, Yorke, Meidroth)
* Maybe there is a guy who you could sign to play 3B (Adames) or trade for?
* Casas should be able to bring an absolute hall, including a controllable, top of rotation type SP

It would be a very bold move on Breslow's part, and it would have to be the "perfect deal".

The bolded doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. What does "easy to extend" mean? If it's just that he won't sign a significantly discounted deal, okay. But that doesn't preclude any deal at all. We don't even know the numbers that might have been exchanged between the two parties so it's really impossible to know how "easy" an extension might or might not be.

Trading Casas for a haul of prospects and/or young major leaguers including a top of the rotation type would certainly be a bold move. Whether it's wise or not would depend a lot on how the in-house prospects fare this year. If a bunch of them take a step forward such that it looks like there might be a log jam, dealing Casas could be a good way to free it up. I'd be a lot more open to the idea if that was the impetus than if it was more of a preemptive strike because there is concern he could leave as a free agent in four more years.

 

[Cassvt2023]

The bolded doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. What does "easy to extend" mean? If it's just that he won't sign a significantly discounted deal, okay. But that doesn't preclude any deal at all. We don't even know the numbers that might have been exchanged between the two parties so it's really impossible to know how "easy" an extension might or might not be.

Trading Casas for a haul of prospects and/or young major leaguers including a top of the rotation type would certainly be a bold move. Whether it's wise or not would depend a lot on how the in-house prospects fare this year. If a bunch of them take a step forward such that it looks like there might be a log jam, dealing Casas could be a good way to free it up. I'd be a lot more open to the idea if that was the impetus than if it was more of a preemptive strike because there is concern he could leave as a free agent in four more years.

Although I have no idea what figures have been discussed, if you read the tea leaves through his comments, it sounds like he'd be looking for a Matt Olsen type deal. He obviously, and rightfully has extreme confidence in betting on himself. Then the Red Sox would have 500 million tied up on 2 corner IF who both hit LH and neither are above average defensively.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

The bolded doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. What does "easy to extend" mean? If it's just that he won't sign a significantly discounted deal, okay. But that doesn't preclude any deal at all. We don't even know the numbers that might have been exchanged between the two parties so it's really impossible to know how "easy" an extension might or might not be.

Trading Casas for a haul of prospects and/or young major leaguers including a top of the rotation type would certainly be a bold move. Whether it's wise or not would depend a lot on how the in-house prospects fare this year. If a bunch of them take a step forward such that it looks like there might be a log jam, dealing Casas could be a good way to free it up. I'd be a lot more open to the idea if that was the impetus than if it was more of a preemptive strike because there is concern he could leave as a free agent in four more years.

Also.... while it's true that his value MAY never be higher, it's also true that it MAY actually get even higher and that value is most valuable to the Red Sox. Hitters as good as Casas already is (and I think he's got at least 8-10 more good to great seasons in him) are pretty rare to find. He's also a player with some freaking personality which MLB kinda sorta is lacking. I loved Xander, but he was no Pedroia or Ortiz.

Edit- And whatever the stats may say.... Casas has looked way better at 1B defensively this season. Rangier, better glove work and getting to throws around the margins.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Although I have no idea what figures have been discussed, if you read the tea leaves through his comments, it sounds like he'd be looking for a Matt Olsen type deal. He obviously, and rightfully has extreme confidence in betting on himself. Then the Red Sox would have 500 million tied up on 2 corner IF who both hit LH and neither are above average defensively.

I read nothing in his comments that suggest "Matt Olsen deal". I think that's entirely your own spin. All I heard in his comments was that whatever was offered wasn't good enough for him to commit to now, and that he'd rather try to prove he's worth more and subsequently get more. Again, that doesn't preclude a deal from getting done in the near future and it doesn't necessarily need to be in the Matt Olsen range to be satisfactory for him. For all we know he was offered a Rafaela contract and he'd prefer a Corbin Carroll contract.

Now if we're approaching it from the point of view of locking in two LHH corner infielders who might be defensive liabilities is not a good idea, I'll buy into that.

 

[YTF]

True, we don't know what his defense will look like at 2B. If he is an average defender there, then I like him as a bat-first 2B. And, yeah, I'm projecting that his hitting remains solid. I'm not that impressed with Meidroth or Yorke. Maybe there's better value in a trade. We'll see.

FWIW...In his major league career Wong has played in a total of 11 innings at 2B, starting none of the 7 games he's appeared in. In 5 seasons (not all full seasons) in the minors he played 2B in 27 games with 24 starts. Asking because I genuinely don't know, is Yorke a bad defender? Also we need to consider that Trevor Story is still on the roster.

 

[TomRicardo]

I want to preface this with a caveat: I'm not in favor of this, but it could make some sense.

Why not see what you could fetch in a trade at the deadline or this offseason by dangling Tristan Casas....

* His value may never be higher, and it seems like he is not going to be easy at all to extend.
* Devers could immediately move to 1st base, which would be less wear and tear on his body.
* We are very LHH, at both the major and minor league levels.
* There may be in house options to play a very good 3B, assuming the future at SS and 2B is Mayer and Grissom (Story, Yorke, Meidroth)
* Maybe there is a guy who you could sign to play 3B (Adames) or trade for?
* Casas should be able to bring an absolute hall, including a controllable, top of rotation type SP

It would be a very bold move on Breslow's part, and it would have to be the "perfect deal".

Why would you trade away someone with four more years of service time because you don't think they can extend him when you have no one to replace them with? That is insane. Also I am not sure 1B is that much less wear and tear on body than 3B.

Outside of Devers, Casas is the only foundational piece on the Red Sox from the hitting side of the ball. We hope Grissom slides into that space but everyone else is pretty fungible at the moment besides two guys you can't give away with Story and Yoshida. You hope at least one of Teel, Anthony, or Mayer stick as well.

 

[Cassvt2023]

Why would you trade away someone with four more years of service time because you don't think they can extend him when you have no one to replace them with? That is insane. Also I am not sure 1B is that much less wear and tear on body than 3B.

Outside of Devers, Casas is the only foundational piece on the Red Sox from the hitting side of the ball. We hope Grissom slides into that space but everyone else is pretty fungible at the moment besides two guys you can't give away with Story and Yoshida. You hope at least one of Teel, Anthony, or Mayer stick as well.

Did you not read the entire post? I specifically said that I probably WOULDN'T. But everything should be considered to make the whole team more competitive in 2025-2028 and beyond. I also stated that Devers, who we all agree is a defensive liability at 3B, would play 1B. Then we would get a preferably RHH defensively upgraded 3B (Story?) or whoever we were able to bring back in the Casas trade, which would have to be significant. And yes hopefully one or two of Anthony LHH OF, Mayer LHH SS or Teel LHH C do stick as well.

 

[YTF]

Although I have no idea what figures have been discussed, if you read the tea leaves through his comments, it sounds like he'd be looking for a Matt Olsen type deal. He obviously, and rightfully has extreme confidence in betting on himself. Then the Red Sox would have 500 million tied up on 2 corner IF who both hit LH and neither are above average defensively.

Personally I like the attitude that I'm reading through the tea leaves. "OK I'm not a good defender and you want to pay me accordingly. Let me work on that while I continue building from my 2023 offensive numbers. Then we can revisit things and you can pay me accordingly."

 

[YTF]

Did you not read the entire post? I specifically said that I probably WOULDN'T. But everything should be considered to make the whole team more competitive in 2025-2028 and beyond. I also stated that Devers, who we all agree is a defensive liability at 3B, would play 1B. Then we would get a preferably RHH defensively upgraded 3B (Story?) or whoever we were able to bring back in the Casas trade, which would have to be significant. And yes hopefully one or two of Anthony LHH OF, Mayer LHH SS or Teel LHH C do stick as well.

This deal that you probably wouldn't do is based on the idea that you think he's going to be difficult to extend. We're 20 games into his second season and we also have no idea how Devers might feel about moving off from 3B.

 

[Cassvt2023]

This deal that you probably wouldn't do is based on the idea that you think he's going to be difficult to extend. We're 20 games into his second season and we also have no idea how Devers might feel about moving off from 3B.

Why are you guys not reading the entire post? Being difficult to extend was but 1 item I mentioned. I also mentioned how extremely LH our bats now and hopefully in the future are. In addition, I mentioned that it may be unsustainable to keep Devers at 3B much past this year because of his defense. I also alluded to the fact that he could bring an absolute hall in trade. If you were to read it, I suggested that Story may be a fine 3B when he is back since he has shown to be elite at both SS and 2B. I did also indeed mention that Mayer and Grissom may be the MI of the future. And Devers is making $31m a year. What's he going to do, retire if he can't stay at 3B?

 

[YTF]

Why are you guys not reading the entire post? Being difficult to extend was but 1 item I mentioned. I also mentioned how extremely LH our bats now and hopefully in the future are. In addition, I mentioned that it may be unsustainable to keep Devers at 3B much past this year because of his defense. I also alluded to the fact that he could bring an absolute hall in trade. If you were to read it, I suggested that Story may be a fine 3B when he is back since he has shown to be elite at both SS and 2B. I did also indeed mention that Mayer and Grissom may be the MI of the future. And Devers is making $31m a year. What's he going to do, retire if he can't stay at 3B?

Just because someone doesn't comment on every aspect of a post doesn't mean that they haven't read it. We all know how incredibly left-handed the team currently is and that the top prospects aren't likely to ease that issue. That doesn't mean that there aren't solutions other than to move what might be one of the best power hitting prospects that the organization has developed in the past decade because the tea leaves may not IYO look promising. As for Devers, have you never seen the effect of a disgruntled star player? I have no idea how receptive Raffy might be toward a position change, do you?

Edited for clarification...Concerning Devers, I don't think that he'll be playing 3B when he calls it a career. I'm sure that he eventually moves but, because I read your entire post I understand that this trade that you probably wouldn't do would ideally be explored at the trade deadline or in the off season and my curiosity would be as to how accepting he would be of that move now.

 

[TomRicardo]

Did you not read the entire post? I specifically said that I probably WOULDN'T. But everything should be considered to make the whole team more competitive in 2025-2028 and beyond. I also stated that Devers, who we all agree is a defensive liability at 3B, would play 1B. Then we would get a preferably RHH defensively upgraded 3B (Story?) or whoever we were able to bring back in the Casas trade, which would have to be significant. And yes hopefully one or two of Anthony LHH OF, Mayer LHH SS or Teel LHH C do stick as well.

It is a super weird idea that kind of amounts we have too many LHH hitters which is kind of non sensical to get rid of Casas. You only have two plus side bats at the moment going into 2024 with hopes that Grissom (a RHH) to be a third. It is easier to focus on getting a RHH bat like O'Neill or Santander then getting rid of Casas.

Outside O'Neill, SS, OF, and DH are pretty bereft of anything meaningful. The catchers are fairly fungible as well.

I am not as worried about top flight arms with the way Crawford and Houck have looked this year. Crawford is a pitching like a top ten pitcher in MLB and Houck looks like top 30 pitcher as well. The Red Sox need to find some depth behind Bello and Giolito. I don't see anything behind Fitts that looks like they can do that.

 

[RedOctober3829]

I don't think this really answers my question. When we're seeing such rampant injuries to pitchers across the league, and so many examples of seemingly random pitchers transformed into success stories, why does it make more sense to commit resources to top end pitchers as they age into their thirties?

Before anyone chimes in with a moral argument (e.g. John Henry should stop hoarding his money) — I agree with you. I think players should receive a far greater portion of revenues than they currently are and John Henry should give away 98 percent of his wealth to housing cooperatives. Within the parameters of the game, however, it seems like the Red Sox may be wise to focus on developing pitching assets in-house (who are also tradable) instead of committing major resources to the Snells and Montgomerys of the world (whose contracts are instantly underwater and are mostly untradable).

You have to commit major resources in the short-term because you don't have any in-house assets that profile as elite starters in the minor league pipeline at the moment. They haven't had any for a really long time now. If Breslow/Bailey hit on their picks, we won't see the fruits of that for a few years so in the mean time I believe it is necessary to go out and get that top of the rotation guy if and when the opportunity presents itself.

As some are saying in this thread, I can not get on board with the idea that Crawford and Houck are elite starters yet. It's mid-April. Way too early to make those kinds of proclamations. If they finish the year like they've started, we have something.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

I'd say the new model is that this is the norm and the long-term big-money guys are major outliers. Up til this winter at least the agents were trying to flip those presumptions around, and got nowhere, except with the Dodger guys who are definitely outliers.

They're even outliers for the Dodgers themselves, a team nobody would accuse of being cheap. Before this past offseason - and I'm just eyeballing this, so I might have missed something - the last pitcher they'd signed for more than three years was Kenta Maeda? They did extend Kershaw a bunch of times, but they've been going year to year with him lately. They took on the remainder of Price's deal as part of the cost of Mookie, but I don't think that's quite the same thing. They signed Bauer - terrible decision! - to an unusually-structured three-year deal with a bunch of opt-outs. They rented Darvish, then let him walk. They rented Scherzer, then let him walk. In the last few years, they've brought a bunch of players on one-year deals, like Tyler Anderson, Noah Syndergaard, Jimmy Nelson (a couple of times) and, now, James Paxton. YY and Ohtani are obviously exceptions to this, presumably because YY is a lot younger than most FA pitchers and Ohtani will provide value even if he never throws another pitch. But still, "emulating the Dodgers" like everyone wants to might mean more deals that look like Giolito's and fewer that look like the one DD signed Eovaldi to.

EDIT: It’s an obvious point, but if I don’t say it, people will point it out: the Dodgers make this work because they have a strong player-development system, so they can plug in a Bueler or a May or a Gonsolin or an Outman (and still trade away a Josiah Gray!)

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

As some are saying in this thread, I can not get on board with the idea that Crawford and Houck are elite starters yet. It's mid-April. Way too early to make those kinds of proclamations. If they finish the year like they've started, we have something.

I think this is all anyone is saying just from a different angle. Both those guys, and Bello, don’t have enough track record to say they will regress to “who they are”.
As it’s too soon to say either way, it’s also too soon to say they NEED to go outside and sign or trade for a proven ace.
For me, the likelihood that a FA top ace will sign and perform at $35M a year is much less likely than one of those 3 from performing at least at a borderline elite level. Henry apparently only wants to shoot 6 bullets from his mega-clip machine gun and tell us he’s just got a revolver so any big bust costly FA pitcher is going to impact the ability to extend good homegrown talent. That’s one historical fact that I feel comfortable saying it’s also predictive (name not to be mentioned).
I’m more interested in getting Pivetta on a 3-4 year still despite the injury.

Edit- if it’s trading for a guy…. Then likely one of those 3 are going the other way, maybe with one of ATM if it’s going to be a pitcher with 2+ years of control and that’s a whole other discussion of value and who’s available and why that team would do that…

 

[chrisfont9]

They're even outliers for the Dodgers themselves, a team nobody would accuse of being cheap. Before this past offseason - and I'm just eyeballing this, so I might have missed something - the last pitcher they'd signed for more than three years was Kenta Maeda? They did extend Kershaw a bunch of times, but they've been going year to year with him lately. They took on the remainder of Price's deal as part of the cost of Mookie, but I don't think that's quite the same thing. They signed Bauer - terrible decision! - to an unusually-structured three-year deal with a bunch of opt-outs. They rented Darvish, then let him walk. They rented Scherzer, then let him walk. In the last few years, they've brought a bunch of players on one-year deals, like Tyler Anderson, Noah Syndergaard, Jimmy Nelson (a couple of times) and, now, James Paxton. YY and Ohtani are obviously exceptions to this, presumably because YY is a lot younger than most FA pitchers and Ohtani will provide value even if he never throws another pitch. But still, "emulating the Dodgers" like everyone wants to might mean more deals that look like Giolito's and fewer that look like the one DD signed Eovaldi to.

EDIT: It’s an obvious point, but if I don’t say it, people will point it out: the Dodgers make this work because they have a strong player-development system, so they can plug in a Bueler or a May or a Gonsolin or an Outman (and still trade away a Josiah Gray!)

I think Glasnow getting 5/$136 is probably the most interesting data point as far as any other team is concerned. Yamamoto is too unique for a variety of obvious reasons.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

I think Glasnow getting 5/$136 is probably the most interesting data point as far as any other team is concerned. Yamamoto is too unique for a variety of obvious reasons.

See, I knew there was someone I was forgetting. That is an interesting one, actually.

 

[chrisfont9]

See, I knew there was someone I was forgetting. That is an interesting one, actually.

It's just right on the edge of mega-commitment to a guy who might not be that much better than the other "top available guys," buuuuut he might actually be a level above and worthy of a deal at a higher level. Buuuuut he's also 30 and already did his elbow once...

 

[TrotNixonRing]

At the trade deadline, the Sox really should unload Martin and Jansen at a minimum. They will have solid bullpen arms in place for 2025, including Hendriks as closer, and almost certainly won't really be in playoff contention in 2024, even if it looks like they kindasorta could be at the deadline. They also need to figure out what to do with O'Neill - whether to extend him (he's 29 years old) or trade him, because he's a FA after this season. Same thing with Pivetta.

I'm eager for a 2025 with:

C - Wong/Teel
1b - Casas
2b - Grissom
3b - Devers
SS - Eh... Story? Mayer?
OF - Duran, Abreu, Yoshida, Rafaela, Anthony (?)
SP - Bello, Giolito, Houck, Whitlock, and Crawford
RP - Hendriks, Slaten, Weissert, Winckowski, and even Bernardino, who's been really good

They have some good pieces for a team in 2025. If the kids are truly ready to go, 2025 should be a lot of fun.

this is an exciting post. Imagine those pieces with a couple big free agent signings surrounding them. Could be a front runner

 

[bosockboy]

At some point they need a long term RHH power bat. With Rafaela and Anthony in the future OF and a very LHH heavy future infield, Duran might be the odd one out.

If you believe O’Neill is that guy sign him long term and move Duran while his value is high after this season. Or spend on a power hitting LF.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

At some point they need a long term RHH power bat. With Rafaela and Anthony in the future OF and a very LHH heavy future infield, Duran might be the odd one out.

If you believe O’Neill is that guy sign him long term and move Duran while his value is high after this season. Or spend on a power hitting LF.

I do find it odd people keep assuming that Duran’s value is going to crater.

His defense looks even better this year. He’s been a very good major league player for over a year now.

 

[bosockboy]

I do find it odd people keep assuming that Duran’s value is going to crater.

His defense looks even better this year. He’s been a very good major league player for over a year now.

Totally fair, but the point stands he’s likely the odd man out of the future OF so see what he can fetch.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

Totally fair, but the point stands he’s likely the odd man out of the future OF so see what he can fetch.

Is this really true though? Rafaela might be a zero with the bat which would make Durans center field ability very important.

Abreu is a true platoon player who can really play a competent centerfield.

 

[bosockboy]

Is this really true though? Rafaela might be a zero with the bat which would make Durans center field ability very important.

Abreu is a true platoon player who can really play a competent centerfield.

Also fair, but they just committed 50 million to CR, likely a very long time before they’d consider cutting bait.

 

[TomRicardo]

Crawford and Houck are two of the best ten pitchers in MLB right now but neither is going to sniff Cy Young with the limited number of wins they will get plus splitting votes being on the same non contender.

That said, the two of them set up a ~3 year window after this year where the Red Sox could compete. The issue is they are going to need to:

1) Launch Yoshida into space
2) Land a big bat

I don't think there is anything to can do with Story besides limiting his time on the field as well as have him take reps at 3B when Devers DH. Yoshida being a soft hitting LHH DH just doesn't work.

A quarter of the way through the season, it is clear that the Red Sox might actually have a path to contention in 2025.

C - Wong
1B - Casas
2B - Grissom
SS - [Story]
3B - Devers
RF - Abreu
CF - Duran
LF -
DH -

Bench
C - McGuire
IF/OF - Rafaela
OF - Refsnedyer
1B -

SP - Crawford
SP - Houck
SP - Bello
SP - Giolito
SP - Criswell

CL - Hendricks
RP - Slaten
RP - Whitlock
RP - Bernardino
RP - Booser
RP - Weissert
RP - Booser
RP - Covered
RP - Covered

The biggest thing they need to do is ditch Yoshida. He doesn't fit into what they are building. They really just don't need LHH with no power in the DH especially if you have a super utility player like Rafaela available.

Secondly they need another big bat. Ideally you would throw the kitchen sink at Soto but this is the Sam Kennedy run Red Sox so forget any big market dreams. You could go with Alonso [Same Problem], Santander, or Teoscar.

Finally you need a bench 1B but I mean big shrug there.

 

[Rovin Romine]

A quarter of the way through the season, it is clear that the Red Sox might actually have a path to contention in 2025.
The biggest thing they need to do is ditch Yoshida. He doesn't fit into what they are building. They really just don't need LHH with no power in the DH especially if you have a super utility player like Rafaela available.

Secondly they need another big bat. Ideally you would throw the kitchen sink at Soto but this is the Sam Kennedy run Red Sox so forget any big market dreams. You could go with Alonso [Same Problem], Santander, or Teoscar.

Finally you need a bench 1B but I mean big shrug there.

With normal health-luck and a trade or two, this core can contend this year.

But as to 2025, I agree with your points. Yoshida does not really fit, unless he's 2023 May-August Yoshida. But with the non-surgical third-opinion re: his hand, I'm not holding my breath at this point. I don't think he'll be easy to move though. Instead of eating the whole contract, they should invest in a dedicated hitting-coach or something to get him going.

***

The "big bat" issue is kind of an illusion. We have them right now.

By OPS+:

Refsnyder 176​

O'Neill 166​

Wong 155​

Devers 144​

Abreu 143​

(Casas 137)​

We also have a bunch of solid above-average hitters, one of which can contribute offensively via speed.

McGuire 108​

(Yoshida 106)​

Duran 104​

And then we have the ballast:

Romy 69​

Rafaela 64​

Hamilton 60​

Reyes 28 (60 at bats)​

Valdez 25 (90 at bats)​

Dalbec 8 (53 at bats)​

​

Cooper/Smith/Grissom are all under 50, but only have around 30 ABs each. Collectively, that's not great though.​

I'm not arguing that the current hot hitters are sustainable. But Duran, Rafaela, Grissom, and somebody ought to be able to rise as Refsnyder and Wong trail off.

What I am arguing is that overall offensive production also depends on not giving away too many useless ABs to scrubs/replacements. They should be reserved for breaking in long-term players who have a future with the club.

To compare with the Yanks, they have only 2 guys (Soto/Judge) at 137 or above. We have 5 (or 6). But they have only 280 at bats for guys with a 87 OPS+ or less. We have around 560 or so (by very rough count.)

Getting a Soto type would always make a difference, but maybe it's just a "San Diego difference" if we've also got an offensive black hole or two elsewhere in the lineup.

***

As for the rotation, I think what you have above is thin. I'd like to be a Criswell believer, but I need a bit more. So maybe it's a Winckowski, or a FA, or Fitts or someone as the #5. Murphy should be back at some point as well.

For RP we seem to have a number of guys who are actually delivering in the minors, as opposed to guys with tools (Ort) who we'd call up hoping they'd put things together in the majors. So I'm not very concerned there.

 

[Max Power]

With normal health-luck and a trade or two, this core can contend this year.

But as to 2025, I agree with your points. Yoshida does not really fit, unless he's 2023 May-August Yoshida. But with the non-surgical third-opinion re: his hand, I'm not holding my breath at this point. I don't think he'll be easy to move though. Instead of eating the whole contract, they should invest in a dedicated hitting-coach or something to get him going.

***

The "big bat" issue is kind of an illusion. We have them right now.

By OPS+:

Refsnyder 176​

O'Neill 166​

Wong 155​

Devers 144​

Abreu 143​

(Casas 137)​

We also have a bunch of solid above-average hitters, one of which can contribute offensively via speed.

McGuire 108​

(Yoshida 106)​

Duran 104​

And then we have the ballast:

Romy 69​

Rafaela 64​

Hamilton 60​

Reyes 28 (60 at bats)​

Valdez 25 (90 at bats)​

Dalbec 8 (53 at bats)​

​

Cooper/Smith/Grissom are all under 50, but only have around 30 ABs each. Collectively, that's not great though.​

I'm not arguing that the current hot hitters are sustainable. But Duran, Rafaela, Grissom, and somebody ought to be able to rise as Refsnyder and Wong trail off.

What I am arguing is that overall offensive production also depends on not giving away too many useless ABs to scrubs/replacements. They should be reserved for breaking in long-term players who have a future with the club.

To compare with the Yanks, they have only 2 guys (Soto/Judge) at 137 or above. We have 5 (or 6). But they have only 280 at bats for guys with a 87 OPS+ or less. We have around 560 or so (by very rough count.)

Getting a Soto type would always make a difference, but maybe it's just a "San Diego difference" if we've also got an offensive black hole or two elsewhere in the lineup.

***

As for the rotation, I think what you have above is thin. I'd like to be a Criswell believer, but I need a bit more. So maybe it's a Winckowski, or a FA, or Fitts or someone as the #5. Murphy should be back at some point as well.

For RP we seem to have a number of guys who are actually delivering in the minors, as opposed to guys with tools (Ort) who we'd call up hoping they'd put things together in the majors. So I'm not very concerned there.

The Story and especially Casas injuries killed the lineup. They went from banking on some pop from SS and an excellent hitter at first to giving away a bunch of at bats. Next year if everyone is healthy, the offense will look a bit better. But there still isn't a true bopper in the middle of things. Maybe it's not required, but it was nice to go from Mo Vaughn to Nomar to Manny to Papi to JD Martinez the last 30 years. That guy isn't there right now. The options are acquiring one or having Casas or Devers take a step forward at hitters to be 150 OPS+ types.

 

[TheYellowDart5]

The Story and especially Casas injuries killed the lineup. They went from banking on some pop from SS and an excellent hitter at first to giving away a bunch of at bats. Next year if everyone is healthy, the offense will look a bit better. But there still isn't a true bopper in the middle of things. Maybe it's not required, but it was nice to go from Mo Vaughn to Nomar to Manny to Papi to JD Martinez the last 30 years. That guy isn't there right now. The options are acquiring one or having Casas or Devers take a step forward at hitters to be 150 OPS+ types.

Soto and Pete Alonso are the only under-30 big boppers on the market; I expect the former to be well out of the FO's price range, and the latter makes no sense on this roster (and would be a terrifying long-term investment). Santander, Teoscar and Christian Walker are probably the next tier in terms of availability, and depending how the rest of O'Neill's season goes, he might fit into that group as well. You can probably add Rhys Hoskins there too in what's been a nice bounce-back season, but he's also a bad fit roster-wise unless they ditch Yoshida. There's also Willy Adames and Gleyber Torres, both of whom have shown plus power, but Adames is arguably the best shortstop on the market and is gonna be looking for a big deal, and Torres is having a terrible year.

In other words, I wouldn't have much hope that the next big bat is arriving via free agency, though I could see the FO making an O'Neill extension an in-season priority if he stays healthy and keeps hitting well.

 

[greenmountains]

I'm looking at 2025 in two sections....Beginning and Mid Year (promotions). Also looking at 2026.

2025 - Beginning

C - Wong/ McGuire
1B - Casas
2B - Grissom
SS - Story
3B - Devers
RF - Abreu
CF - Rafaela
LF - Duran / O'Neil
DH -

C - Split above
IF - Meidroth
OF - Refsnedyer
1B -

2025 - Mid Year

C - Wong / McGuire (could Teel be ready - Magic 8 Ball says "appears doubtful" as of 5.14.24)
1B - Casas
2B - Grissom
SS - Mayer
3B - Devers
RF - Abreu
CF - Rafaela
LF - Duran / O'Neil
DH -

C - Split above
IF - Meidroth
OF - Refsnedyer
1B - Kavadas

2026

C - Teel / Wong
1B - Casas
2B - Grissom / Yorke
SS - Mayer
3B - Devers
RF - Anthony
CF - Rafaela
LF - Abreu
DH - Rotational Position Players - principally Casas / Devers

C - Split above
IF - Meidroth / Story
OF -
1B - Kavadas

The question - do these units have enough power.

 

[Rovin Romine]

The Story and especially Casas injuries killed the lineup. They went from banking on some pop from SS and an excellent hitter at first to giving away a bunch of at bats. Next year if everyone is healthy, the offense will look a bit better. But there still isn't a true bopper in the middle of things. Maybe it's not required, but it was nice to go from Mo Vaughn to Nomar to Manny to Papi to JD Martinez the last 30 years. That guy isn't there right now. The options are acquiring one or having Casas or Devers take a step forward at hitters to be 150 OPS+ types.

Casas is 24 and Devers is 27, so it's not out of the question. But by a 150 OPS+ type - you're talking about a top 10 (or less) hitter in all of MLB by the standard of recent years. And even there, in 2023 Casas and Devers were numbers 18 and 26.

We've had some guys in the top 10 but not as often as you might think.

2018 - Betts and JD.

2016 - Ortiz

2013 - Ortiz

2011 - Ortiz
2010 - Gonzalez
2009 - Youk (#10 at 146)
2008 - Manny, Youk (144)
2007 - Ortiz
2006 - Manny, Ortiz
2005 - Ortiz, Manny

2003 - Manny, Nixon (149)
2002 - Manny
2001 - Manny

1999 - Nomar

1988 - Boggs, Greenwell
1987 - Boggs, Evans
1986 - Boggs



There may have been some guys at 150 or above when the hitter-era was in full swing, but these are the qualifying top 10 by OPS+ per year. For example, Vaughn was #15 in '98 with an OPS+ of 153.

 

[Max Power]

Yes, a 150 OPS+ guy is usually a top 10 hitter and in the MVP conversation every year. And the Red Sox have had a guy on the team who has that ability for most of the last 40 years. Even when someone like Papi wasn't quite there, he was someone you knew could do it. They don't have one now and I'd like to see it again.

Edit: Actually the last 85 years. Boggs to Rice to Yaz to Ted.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Yes, a 150 OPS+ guy is usually a top 10 hitter and in the MVP conversation every year. And the Red Sox have had a guy on the team who has that ability for most of the last 40 years. Even when someone like Papi wasn't quite there, he was someone you knew could do it. They don't have one now and I'd like to see it again.

Edit: Actually the last 85 years. Boggs to Rice to Yaz to Ted.

There are usually less than ten 150 OPS+ guys in the league each season and they don't exactly become available all that often. I think there's a better chance that Devers or Casas or someone else within the organization now breaks out with such a season than they can go out and get one in trade or free agency. Betts and Martinez were the last to do it for the Sox (both in 2018). Betts hadn't done it before then. His career high to that point was 133 in 2016. Devers has a 141 OPS+ season on his resume (2022). Casas had a 129 season last year. I see no reason to think they're not capable of putting up a 150+ in the future. It's not as though they're past their peaks.

 

[LoLsapien]

There's also reason to believe that Abreu could be some approximation of this guy. He has an elevated BABIP but it's not THAT elevated (0.394) en route to a 143 wrc+, he's had years in the minors with 0.200+ ISO and he's not so old (24) that this power couldn't mature. He has a great approach at the plate. He and Casas could become a formidable 3/4 high-OBP combo in front of Devers.

 

[Cassvt2023]

There's also reason to believe that Abreu could be some approximation of this guy. He has an elevated BABIP but it's not THAT elevated (0.394) en route to a 143 wrc+, he's had years in the minors with 0.200+ ISO and he's not so old (24) that this power couldn't mature. He has a great approach at the plate. He and Casas could become a formidable 3/4 high-OBP combo in front of Devers.

I like Abreu and his approach too. But that would be a lot of LHH in a row at the top of a lineup if you think Duran should still be here and leading off.