9/8/2023 - ERC, BVB & YORDANNY

JM3

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Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz is another guy whose start would be interesting, if I expected him to go deeper into the game. After not pitching since July 6th, he threw 12 pitches (11 strikes) on September 1st & allowed 2 hits, a run & struck out 2.

If he hadn't gotten hurt, I would expect he would be in Greenville by now. In 13 starts this season (including the 1 inning last time out), he has thrown 54.1 innings, 43 hits, 26 walks, 50 strikeouts, 2.65 ERA (4.08 xFIP), 1.27 WHIP.

It will be nice if he can finish the season health & strong, and be a shoo-in to start next year at Greenville. ERC is from Puerto Rico & was the Red Sox 4th round pick in 2021. He turned 20 two weeks ago.
 

JM3

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Just found out SoxProspects has a chat forum thing. Not sure if interested.

But anyway, this was a post from Mike Andrews about the latest rankings:

September Rankings are live: www.soxprospects.com
(You may have to hit refresh)

Notes
-Prospects 3-5 (Bleis, Rafaela, Teel) were the toughest calls towards the top that we've had in a long time. We're all in the same ballpark but not 100% aligned. We raised Rafaela's and Teel's projection grade to a 5, but decided to watch the games and review the data & reports for another month on those three prospects before making any other changes there.
-We struggled with ranking Noah Song - based on live scouting, current day Song might not make it to the top 60, but there is a chance 2019 Noah Song is still in there - that Song would be ranked pretty high. He's ranked at 60 for now. It will be an important off-season and will be fun to follow how he looks in the spring.

Graduates
Nick Robertson graduated

Debuts
Zack Penrod debuts at 49

Risers
Yoelin Cespedes up from 15 to 10
Wilyer Abreu up from 23 to 12
Corey Rosier up from 56 to 44
Brock Bell from unranked to 50
Felix Cepeda from unranked to 54

Fallers
Mike Romero from 10 to 18
Bryan Mata from 21 to 27
Cutter Coffey from 30 to 37
Freili Encarnacion from 49 to 56
Phillip Sikes from 46 to 57
Niko Kavadas from 42 to unranked
Christian Koss from 50 to unranked
CJ Liu from 51 to unranked

Note: please, for the love of god, keep in mind that just because a player moved a few spots in either direction it does not necessarily mean we think more or less of that player at the time of that given update compared to last month. New prospect can debuted in the rankings, some players graduate, other prospects can make big jumps around that player. It's all relative. Grades are important as well.
 

Jimbodandy

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Some of those updates are rock solid, but still feel like some of my binkies are too low. I get bumping Mikey because his back has been killing him all year, but still think that he's too low. Meidroth too. Even Blaze's rough year, he's still 20 in AA.

Cespedes flying up the chart. Could probably Monegro a few more spots than they did, but good to see him on the rise also.
 

JM3

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These rankings definitely seem sharper than the previous ones.

Let's see...

Yoely: I had 7, they moved from 15 to 10.
Wilyer: I had 13, they moved from 23 to 12.
Rosier: I had 39, they moved from 56 to 44.
Bell: I had 91, they moved from NR to 50 (I think that's too high...he's 25 & doesn't seem that dominant for A+, but I do plan on moving him up some).
Cepeda: I had 71, they moved from NR to 54 (Cepeda will probably continue to move a bit higher, but maybe not that high...they love their relief pitchers).

Mikey: I had 16, they moved from 10 to 18 (seems a bit extreme based on injury).
Mata: I had 28, they moved from 21 to 27
C. Coffey: I had 36, they moved from 30 to 37
Freili: I had 57, they moved from 49 to 56
Sikes: I had 79, they moved from 46 to 57
Niko: I had 75, they moved from 42 to NR
Koss: I had 112, they moved from 50 to NR
Liu: I had 80, they moved from 51 to NR
 

JM3

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Some of those updates are rock solid, but still feel like some of my binkies are too low. I get bumping Mikey because his back has been killing him all year, but still think that he's too low. Meidroth too. Even Blaze's rough year, he's still 20 in AA.

Cespedes flying up the chart. Could probably Monegro a few more spots than they did, but good to see him on the rise also.
I have some serious issues with having Yordanny behind Blizzard, but they're at least doing somewhat better as the season goes along.
 

JM3

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Other random nitpicks:

I think Nazzan over Yoely is wrong.

& to do it on Yoely's 18th birthday smh...HAPPY BIRTHDAY YOELY!!!

Nazzan is 4 months older & has much less proof of concept...plus I hate the way he holds his hands, plus he got injured real quick. I don't mind having him high, but lower than Yoely for sure.

I am confused about why Reidis Sena is ranked.

Sena was fine in A-ball. In 15 innings he had a 1.20 ERA (but a 3.53 xFIP). He has struggled in his 13.2 innings since being promoted to Greenville with a 6.59 ERA (but a 3.96 xFIP). He's 5'10 & 22 y/o. He signed for $10k back in 2018. Across the 2 levels he has 10.7 k/9 & 4.8 bb/9. I currently have him ranked #147. What am I missing?

Summation:
Potential minor league depth reliever. Ceiling of an up-and-down relief arm. Interesting fastball/slider combination, but is a stuff-over-command-and-control type right now, and lack of command and control holds him back. Will show enough raw stuff that you can dream on a major league future.
https://soxprospects.com/players/sena-reidis.htm
 

JM3

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I will move Sena up some because I didn't realize his xFIP was still pretty decent. Personally I kind of like Railin Perez better...but that might be heightist. Both were signed for $10k in '18, but Perez is 5 inches taller. He's a month older than Sena & still in A-Ball, but has been on a really good stretch for a while.

I guess Ian Cundall was in Greenville last week so they decided to fill the bottom of the list with guys he saw there. It was better than when they had the roster filler guys on the their 60, though.
 

JM3

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BVB is no longer listed as the probably starter on the MiLB page.

Not sure what Portland is going to do, but maybe Sharp to start the 3rd inning in the continuation & Wickelman, who last started on Saturday for g2?
 

JM3

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It does kind of ignore the fact that he got called up to Portland on 5/31, though.
 

JM3

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It does kind of ignore the fact that he got called up to Portland on 5/31, though.
But he was 9-47 (.191 BA) in Greenville between the 14th & 31st of May. So probably.
 

JM3

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That reminds me of another nitpick...they seem to throw all relief pitchers into buckets...no matter how good they are or how close to the Majors.

SoxProspects latest rankings of bullpen only guys, with mine from 8/26 in parens:

#29 Guerrero (#17)
#31 Fernandez (#34)
#32 Hoppe (#67)
#39 Troye (#42)
#50 Bell (#91)
#54 Cepeda (#71)
#55 Sena (#147)

They just seem to put them in clusters. But how are Guerrero & Hoppe so close to each other? Hoppe is interesting, but he's almost 2 years older than Guerrero & just not nearly on his level. I also think it's odd to have Sena in a group with Bell & Cepeda (& that they don't have any of the guys in A-Ball like Luis De La Rosa (#50) or Jonathan Brand (#63) on their list, who I think are much more interesting prospects than Sena.
 

JM3

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I came across this from Fangraphs when I was looking at Brock Bell.

It's the Red Sox Top 47 Prospects from January 2021.

[TH]Rk[/TH] [TH]Name[/TH] [TH]Age[/TH] [TH]Highest Level[/TH] [TH]Position[/TH] [TH]ETA[/TH] [TH]FV[/TH]
1 Jeter Downs 22.5 AA 2B 2022 50
2 Triston Casas 21.0 A+ 1B 2023 50
3 Bryan Mata 21.7 AA MIRP 2021 45+
4 Gilberto Jimenez 20.5 A- CF 2023 45+
5 Noah Song 23.7 A- SP 2023 45
6 Tanner Houck 24.6 MLB MIRP 2021 45
7 Jarren Duran 24.4 AA CF 2022 45
8 Connor Seabold 25.0 AA SP 2021 45
9 Bobby Dalbec 25.6 MLB 3B 2021 45
10 Eduard Bazardo 25.4 AA SIRP 2021 40+
11 Brayan Bello 21.7 A SIRP 2022 40+
12 Jay Groome 22.4 A SP 2022 40+
13 Thad Ward 24.0 A+ MIRP 2022 40+
14 Aldo Ramirez 19.7 AAA SP 2023 40+
15 Nick Yorke 18.8 R 2B 2025 40+
16 Jeisson Rosario 21.3 A+ CF 2021 40+
17 Brainer Bonaci 18.5 R 3B 2023 40
18 Hudson Potts 22.2 AA 3B 2021 40
19 Connor Wong 24.7 AA C 2021 40
20 Eduardo Lopez 18.7 R CF 2023 40
21 Blaze Jordan 18.1 R 1B 2025 40
22 Juan Chacon 18.1 R CF 2024 40
23 Cameron Cannon 23.3 A- 2B 2023 40
24 Nick Decker 21.3 A- RF 2023 40
25 Frank German 23.3 A+ RHP 2022 40
26 Jacob Wallace 22.5 A- SIRP 2023 40
27 Brendan Cellucci 22.6 A- SIRP 2022 40
28 Matthew Lugo 19.7 A- SS 2024 40
29 Bryan Gonzalez 19.4 R RF 2024 40
30 Garrett Whitlock 24.6 AA MIRP 2021 40
31 Durbin Feltman 23.8 AA SIRP 2021 40
32 Miguel Bleis 16.9 R RF 2025 40
33 Chih-Jung Liu 21.8 R SIRP 2024 40
34 Jorge Rodriguez 20.4 A- SP 2023 35+
35 Christian Koss 23.0 R SS 2022 35+
36 Eduardo Vaughan 19.0 R RF 2024 35+
37 Andrew Politi 24.6 A+ SIRP 2022 35+
38 Ryan Zeferjahn 22.9 A- SIRP 2022 35+
39 Shane Drohan 22.1 R SP 2024 35+
40 Bradley Blalock 20.1 R SP 2025 35+
41 Naysbel Marcano 18.7 R C 2023 35+
42 Marcus Wilson 24.4 AA CF 2021 35+
43 Chris Murphy 22.6 A- MIRP 2023 35+
44 Antoni Flores 20.3 A- 3B 2023 35+
45 Luis Perales 17.8 R SIRP 2025 35+
46 Albert Feliz 18.8 R LF 2023 35+
47 Jeremy Wu-Yelland 21.6 R SIRP 2024 35+


https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-47-prospects-boston-red-sox/
 

JM3

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I think my favorite part is the ETAs...

Here are there players they had as '23 ETAs & where they are now:

#2 Triston Casas - Red Sox
#4 Gilberto Jimenez - Greenville (A+)
#5 Noah Song - Greenville (A+)
#14 Aldo Ramirez - last pitched in A-Ball in '21
#17 Brainer Bonaci - Portland (AA)
#20 Eduardo Lopez - Greenville (A+)
#23 Cameron Cannon - Reading (AA)
#24 Nick Decker - Greenville (A+)
#26 Jacob Wallace - NW Arkansas (AA)
#34 Jorge Rodriguez - Greenville (A+)
#41 Naysbel Marcano - FCL '22, nothing '23
#43 Chris Murphy - Red Sox (although AAA now, but still counts)
#44 Antoni Flores - Greenville (A+) '22, nothing '23
#46 Albert Feliz - Salem (A)
 

JM3

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Former #27 Red Sox prospect Brendan Cellucci, who was supposed to be in MLB last year, in for Isaac Coffey, who obviously couldn't continue on the next day.
 

JM3

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Teel singled & stole 2nd (like 30 minutes ago).
 

JM3

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Former #27 Red Sox prospect Brendan Cellucci, who was supposed to be in MLB last year, in for Isaac Coffey, who obviously couldn't continue on the next day.
Cellucci pitched 2 innings & allowed a run on a solo homer, 2 walks, 2 wp & 4 strikeouts.

Sterling Sharp came in & pitched a scoreless 5th.

Portland down 3-1.
 

JM3

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Hickey & Teel singles + a Sikes sac fly cut Portland's deficit to 4-2. Now in the 8th.
 

JM3

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YORDANNY pitching for Greenville & they haven't even bothered to Tweet all day smh.
 

JM3

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SS Paulino
2B Campbell
1B Miller
RF Gonzalez
C Donlan
CF Jimenez
LF Decker
3B Simas
DH Meredith

SP YORDANNY
 

JM3

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Cellucci pitched 2 innings & allowed a run on a solo homer, 2 walks, 2 wp & 4 strikeouts.

Sterling Sharp came in & pitched a scoreless 5th.

Portland down 3-1.
Sharp allowed a run in 2 innings.

Zeferjahn pitched a scoreless 7th & is back out for the 8th.
 

JM3

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Sharp allowed a run in 2 innings.

Zeferjahn pitched a scoreless 7th & is back out for the 8th.
Zeferjahn got pulled after 1.2 innings & 4 walks (& somewhere between 1 & 4 runs).

Dylan Spacke in.
 

JM3

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Zeferjahn got pulled after 1.2 innings & 4 walks (& somewhere between 1 & 4 runs).

Dylan Spacke in.
Spacke got a groundout to end the inning.

Portland down 5-2 heading to the 9th. Teel leading off.