8/29/2023 - MiLB from the future

JM3

JM3

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6 p.m. - AA - Somerset @ Portland

6:45 p.m. - AAA - Norfolk @ Worcester

7:05 p.m. - A+ - Brooklyn @ Greenville

7:05 p.m. - A - Salem @ Augusta

https://www.milb.com/scores/2023-08-29/all/all/redsox

No starters designated yet, but this gives me a couple days to figure it out!

Pretty sure Hunter Dobbins is starting for Portland. I already did the work on that one.
 
JM3

JM3

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It's optimistic posting about pitching o'clock.

Top 40 starters per my rankings include the following current streaks:

#5 Perales - 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 hits, 3 walks, 5 strikeouts, 0 ERA, 1 WHIP

#8 Wikelman - 5 IP, 1 ER, 2 hits, 2 walks, 6 strikeouts, 1.80 ERA, 0.80 WHIP

#9 Yordanny - (last 3) 14 IP, 2 ER, 9 hits, 4 walks, 24 strikeouts, 1.29 ERA, 0.93 WHIP

#17 Guerrero - (last 8) 10.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 hits, 2 walks, 14 strikeouts, 0.00 ERA, 0.47 WHIP

#19 Dobbins - (last 2) 14 IP, 3 ER, 8 hits, 3 walks, 14 strikeouts, 1.93 ERA, 0.79 WHIP

#25 Coffey - 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 hits, 2 walks, 9 strikeouts, 2.57 ERA, 1.00 WHIP

#27 Bastardo - 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 hits, 2 walks, 4 strikeouts, 4.50 ERA, 1.33 WHIP (just promoted)

#33 Rogers - 5 IP, 1 ER, 2 hits, 3 walks, 5 strikeouts, 1.80 ERA, 1.00 WHIP

#34 Fernandez - 1 IP, 0 ER, 1 hit, 0 walks, 3 strikeouts, 0.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP

#37 Rodriguez-Cruz - (last 12) 53.1 IP, 15 ER, 41 hits, 26 walks, 48 strikeouts, 2.53 ERA, 1.26 WHIP

#38 Gambrell - (last 2) 11.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 hits, 7 walks, 10 strikeouts, 0.77 ERA, 1.93 WHIP (just promoted)

#40 Paez - (last 9) 47 IP, 9 ER, 37 hits, 5 walks, 39 strikeouts, 1.72 ERA, 0.89 WHIP
 
JM3

JM3

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I guess I'll go with JOHNFRANK's non-leaping double play.
 
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Time to make educated guesses about tomorrow's starting pitchers:

Worcester
Sunday - Drohan
Tuesday - Walter
Wednesday - Bear Claw
Thursday - BVB
Friday - Drohan
Saturday - Gambrell
Sunday - Walter

Based on this, I think it's pretty safe to expect BEAR CLAW to pitch on Tuesday.
 
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Portland I did the other day & it was Hunter Dobbins, who could potentially have started Sunday if necessary.

Greenville
Tuesday - Perales
Wednesday - DiValerio/Song
Thursday - JDE
Friday - Rogers
Saturday - Bastardo
Sunday - Song
Tuesday - JDE
Wednesday - Rogers
Thursday - Song
Friday - Penrod
Saturday - Perales
Sunday - Cobb
Tuesday - JDE
Wednesday - Song
Thursday - Rogers
Friday - Penrod
Saturday - Perales
Sunday - DiValerio

This one is a bit less clear cut, so I went all the way back to 8/8. Basically, they'd been pitching Song more than once a week, but he had only been pitching 2 innings per outing for a while. I think everything is pretty much settled now, & the fact that Song pitched 69 pitches last appearance makes me believe they are going to have him on the once a week track, which means the whole rotation should be pretty well set up for the time being. Penrod replaced Bastardo, & everyone seems to have fallen on certain days now.

So my projection for Tuesday is Juan Daniel Encarnacion.

& I think the rotation going forward will be:

Tuesday - JDE
Wednesday - Song
Thursday - Rogers
Friday - Penrod
Saturday - Perales
Sunday - DiValerio (org filler)

As such, I would like to see Greenville get another starter to pitch on Sundays. I think the best way to do that is to promote someone from Salem, and add a couple pitchers from the FCL Sox to Salem. Let's explore that in my next post.
 
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JM3

JM3

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Salem
Tuesday - Ramirez
Wednesday - Elvis
Thursday - YORDANNY
Friday - Nunez
Saturday - Dean
Sunday - Paez
Tuesday - Ramirez
Wednesday - Elvis
Thursday - YORDANNY
Friday - Nunez
Saturday - Dean
Sunday - Paez

So this all seems very clean cut & Tuesday is Jose Ramirez's day.

But I don't want to just stick with the status quo. I want to promote someone & give Luis Cohen their rotation spot, & I want Stijn Van Der Schaaf & Francis Hernandez to be pitching for Salem, too.
 
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So my Tuesday projected starters are...

Worcester - BEAR CLAW
Portland - Dobbins
Greenville - JDE
Salem - Ramirez

& in next post I will decide which pitcher I want to promote from Salem & if his name is Yordanny.
 
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Elvis (7.31 ERA in 16 innings) & Nunez (5.73 ERA in 11 innings) have been mid since being promoted to Salem, so I'm definitely not promoting them. You also can't promote Dean until he shows some consistency. Can't promote Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz because he hasn't pitched since July 6th (if he had been healthy this past month I think he would already be in Greenville).

So that leaves 3 choices if you want to promote a starter:

Jose Ramirez (#69) - Ramirez turns 23 in March. He pitched 6 innings for Salem last season, & has been there all year this year. The 6'0 right hander from Santo Domingo, DR signed as an IFA for $40k in 2018. This season he has a 3.76 ERA with a 4.65 xFIP & 1.39 WHIP in 19 starts covering 81.1 innings. He has been somewhat of a ground ball pitcher (53.5%) & has struck out 20.2% of hitters while walking 11.7%. He does not have dominant stuff & doesn't seem to have a high likelihood of becoming a high end prospect if he doesn't add a couple ticks to his fastball while reducing his walks. Based on his age & experience in A-Ball, he would be a reasonable, age-appropriate choice, & would be a perfectly reasonable promotion.

Jedixson Paez (#40) - I posted above how good he's been in his last 9 starts, but his last 3 have only been ok & that was buoyed by the 6 before it. Paez doesn't turn 20 until January. The primary knock on him is he just doesn't throw that hard, but he locates his pitches well & seems to have a good feel for the art of pitching. The 6'1 right hander from Tinaquillo, VZ signed as an IFA for $450k in 2021. His 1st year he pitched entirely in the DSL, his 2nd season he pitched entirely in the FCL, & this season he has pitched entirely in A-Ball. Will be interesting to see if they want to keep him on the 1-level a year path, or perhaps accelerate him further. He is already 2.6 years younger than the average age for A-Ball. This season he has a 3.47 ERA with a 3.61 xFIP & 1.03 WHIP in 17 games covering 80.1 innings. He has a 20.7% k/rate, & a microscopic 3.7% walk rate. It would be a more aggressive promotion age-wise than Ramirez, but Paez is already the better pitcher.

Yordanny Monegro (#9) - Compared to Paez, Monegro would be a much more aggressive promotion in terms of time spent in A-Ball, & a much less aggressive promotion in terms of age as he turns 21 in November. The 6'4 right hander, who, like Ramirez is from Santo Domingo, DR, signed as an IFA for $35k in 2020. He had a decent, but not transcendent DSL season in '21 & a pretty poor FCL season in '22 with a 7.36 ERA in 22.1 innings (5.03 xFIP). However, he was a whole new pitcher this season, dominating the FCL to the tune of a 1.20 ERA over 3 starts with 20 strikeouts & 5 hits allowed in 15 innings. He was even more dominant when first promoted to A-Ball, before hitting a bit of a rough patch, but he has been quite good over his last few appearances. Overall in Salem he has 2.43 ERA with a 2.92 xFIP & 1.23 WHIP in 9 starts covering 40.2 innings. He has struck out an impressive 34.5% of hitters while walking 9.8%. Yordanny is my favorite pitcher, has the highest upside, & is currently the best in terms of ERA & xFIP, but I wouldn't be surprised if they take it a bit slower with him as they continue to work on his mechanics.

So bottom line? I guess Paez probably makes the most sense as his control & pitchability seems to make him the most ready for the move to Greenville, even though he's the youngest of the 3. But I would really love to see a YORDANNY promotion, & all 3 make general sense for promotion for different reasons.

The most likely promotion from Greenville to Portland looks like Penrod, but they probably wouldn't do that without a corresponding promotion from Portland to Worcester (Dobbins? Coffey?), which probably doesn't happen until September when the Sox can add another pitcher from Worcester, & it would probably be a bulk guy like Walter or Bear Claw. Otherwise, there's only really 1 spot available, unless they want to shut down JDE for a while or pitch him out of the pen. JDE has been terrible over his last 5 starts, pitching 17.1 innings & allowing 29 earned runs on 39 hits & 11 walks with 19 strikeouts (15.06 ERA, 2.88 WHIP).

Anyway, what would y'all do if you could only promote 1 at the moment?

a) Promote Ramirez - He's the oldest & due for a promotion. Might as well see if he can handle it.
b) Promote Paez - He doesn't walk people & has been great lately.
c) Promote Yordanny - His stuff is electric af & it's time to move him through the system.
d) Promote no one - Let them all continue on in the friendly confines of the large Salem stadium to increase their confidence.
 
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JM3

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Paez also makes sense since he's the Sunday starter for Salem & the Sunday slot is the one available for Greenville.
 
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I'm dumb. Portland already has a rotation opening, even with Bastardo.

I'm guessing the rotation there is:

Tuesday: Dobbins
Wednesday: Liu
Thursday: Bastardo
Friday: Coffey
Saturday: Sharp (org filler)
Sunday: Wikelman

So we can move Penrod into Saturday without much difficulty. He's only made 2 starts for Greenville since being signed from Indy Ball, but hasn't allowed a run in 11 innings & is already 26.

So the question is, if we want to promote someone from Portland to immediately enter the Worcester rotation, who?

Liu has struggled for a lot of the season, Bastardo has 1 start in AA, & Sharp is not good enough. So that leaves, Dobbins, Coffey, or Wikelman.

Hunter Dobbins (#20) - Dobbins turns 25 on Wednesday. The 6'2 right hander from Bryan, TX by way of Texas Tech, was the Red Sox 8th round draft pick in 2021 & signed for a very slightly above slot deal of $197,500 ($188k slot). Last year, Dobbins pitched for Salem exclusively...& it didn't go great...5.22 ERA in 17 starts, 91.1 IP (but a 3.76 xFIP). This year, he started the season in Greenville & put together 7 excellent starts with an ERA of 2.63 over 41 IP (3.31 xFIP) & was promoted to Portland. His results have been up & down for Portland. In 9 games he has pitched 50.1 innings with a 4.65 ERA (4.15 xFIP), & a 1.39 WHIP. He has struck out 25.5% of hitters & walked 9.1%. His last 2 starts were quite good, as viewable above.

Isaac Coffey (#24) - Coffey turns 24 in June. The 6'1 right hander from Goleta, CA by way of Oral Robert was the Red Sox 10th round draft pick in 2022 & signed for a very under slot deal of $7,500 ($150k slot). Last year, Coffey pitched 1.2 innings in the FCL. This year, he started the season in Greenville & put together 11 excellent starts with an ERA of 2.83 over 60.1 IP (2.84 xFIP) & was promoted to Portland. He has had reasonable success since being promoted as well. In 10 starts he has pitched 51.1 innings with a 3.51 ERA (4.01 xFIP), & a 1.19 WHIP. He has struck out 29.3% of hitters & walked 8.9%.

Wikelman Gonzalez (#8) - Gonzalez turns 22 in March. The 6'0 right hander from Maracay, VZ was signed as an IFA for $250k in July 2018. Last year, Gonzalez started the season in Salem (71 IP) & was promoted to Greenville toward the end of the year (17 IP). This yea, he started the season in Greenville & got off to a rocky start before turning it around (in his 1st 4 starts of the year he allowed 15 ER in 8.2 innings on 10 hits, 16 walks, & 14 strikeouts). Overall he had a 5.14 ERA, but a 3.68 xFIP. So far in Portland, in 7 starts he has an ERA of 2.88 in 34.1 innings (3.84 xFIP), & a 1.17 WHIP. He has struck out 33.1% of hitters & walked 14.8%.

I think Dobbins is probably the most ready for the next level, but Wikelman would be the most fun.

So if you could promote 1 of these guys, who would you promote?

a) Hunter Dobbins - He's built like a workhorse, is almost 25, & throws hard enough for his stuff to play at the next level.

b) Isaac Coffey - He has had really good results, has been basically the most consistent pitcher in the org all season, & will continue keeping hitters off balance at the next level.

c) Wikelman Gonzalez - He has the best stuff & will continue to strikeout hitters at a high rate as he moves through the organization. He's Rule 5 eligible so it would be good to see more of what we have.

d) None - Rio Gomez or whoever can fill in the Worcester innings. All these guys started the year at Greenville & none are ready for Worcester.
 
JM3

JM3

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So here's the most aggressive promotion proposal I can make, which I don't think will actually happen, but I think I can justify it if they went this route...

MLB - 1 of Bear Claw/Walter/Murphy, can rotate, but starts with Bear Claw potentially being promoted today.

Worcester rotation (5-man):
Tuesday: Dobbins (promoted)
Wednesday: Van Belle
Thursday: Drohan
Friday: Gambrell
Saturday: Walter

Portland rotation (6-man):
Tuesday: Liu
Wednesday: Bastardo
Thursday: Coffey
Friday: Penrod (promoted)
Saturday: Perales (promoted)
Sunday: Wikelman

Greenville rotation (6-man):
Tuesday: Ramirez (promoted)
Wednesday: Song
Thursday: Rogers
Friday: Yordanny (promoted)
Saturday: JDE
Sunday: Paez (promoted)

Salem rotation (6-man):
Tuesday: Cohen (promoted)
Wednesday: Elvis
Thursday: Van Der Schaaf (promoted)
Friday: Nunez
Saturday: Dean
Sunday: De La Rosa (elevated from RP)
 
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08/26/23 Salem Red Sox placed SS Nazzan Zanetello on the 7-day injured list.
08/25/23 Salem Red Sox placed LF Alexis Hernandez on the 7-day injured list.
Click to expand...
I guess this is why Nazzan left the Salem game early the other day & hasn't played since, & why Hernandez has been out the past several games.
 
JM3

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JM3 said:
So my Tuesday projected starters are...

Worcester - BEAR CLAW
Portland - Dobbins
Greenville - JDE
Salem - Ramirez

& in next post I will decide which pitcher I want to promote from Salem & if his name is Yordanny.
Click to expand...
View: https://twitter.com/SoxProspects/status/1696560556243668993


SoxProspects agrees on Dobbins & Ramirez. Since then Bear Claw has become not an option & they have BVB in his place. He last pitched on Thursday & would be next in line. I wouldn't have been surprised if they went with a spot start from Rio to keep them on 5 days, but BVB is listed on the MiLB page.

They have Song instead of JDE. Which is happening according to the MiLB page, but JDE pitched last Tuesday & Song on Wednesday. But I guess they figure with Song going 4 he still doesn't need the whole week & they want to get him more innings.
 
JM3

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JM3 said:
The Red Sox released #242 Jhonny Felix off of Salem, which I assume portends more moves to come.
Click to expand...
At some point the Red Sox are going to make me silly by releasing a prospect I overrated. This is not that, though.
 
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