8/15/2023 - MiLB Play Ball
- Thread starter JM3
- Start date
Yeah Scott is really starting to intrigue me. There has to be a place for him in the big leagues, if not with the Sox than someone else. He just keeps hitting. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see C-Note get a cup of coffee next month.
Yup. The high walk rate and the low K rate always made him interesting, but the pop has become insane. He's hit a ton of home runs this year on top of being a 12-15% BB rate guy with less than 20% strikeouts. Those things scream big-league hitter to me. He's crushing Casas's numbers/peripherals from last year.
It's a shame Scott isn't a RHH otherwise he would look REALLY interesting as the weak-side platoon guy across 1B/DH/maybe OF. That said, and this is a big if, IF he can work up to being a credible catcher, that changes the math on his path over the next couple pre-Teel seasons. But at a certain point you have to wonder if the guy just flat rakes you have to find a spot for him. Seems pretty advanced, and as I've said before I love his compact swing. I'm sure he's not a late-blooming Kyle Schwarber, but, like, is he though?
Rafaela has a much clearer path as a ++ defender and RHH.
Rafaela has a much clearer path as a ++ defender and RHH.
My one concern with Scott's offense, & it may be a silly one, is that almost all of his home run highlights look identical & usually seem to involve mistakes down & in, which he would obviously see less of in the Majors.
It's also not really a fair comparison to Casas as he's relatively 4 years older.
But yeah, agree with Jed regarding being able to catch being a huge part of his usefulness to the Red Sox based on their current roster configuration.
Yeah, it's tough because the fact that he's LHH actually makes him more available as a hitter? I still wonder if they're gonna move on from McGuire - he's only caught 4 people stealing against 25 SB. Scott platooning with Wong is a possibility... although that's true of Hernandez too, who I still think has been better than his numbers.
Basically think there might even be room for him even if the catcher stuff isn't great. Like there's teams that are slower and are less likely to steal on him, etc. And he's played the outfield and first base before.
I get the age stuff, but at the same time, it shouldn't a knock against Scott. A hitter is a hitter is a hitter.
I should clarify: it's very exciting when a guy is tearing up AAA at a young age -- obviously! Not only because they're young but because that means there's more projection.
But my point is just that some guys figure things out later than other. The fact that Scott is older leaves him, obviously, with less room for projection in theory, but then you look around the big leagues and it's littered with hitters who figured things out late. Look at Justin Turner's minor league numbers from way back when. My point of view is that guys with good plate discipline and low strikeout numbers have already figured out the toughest stuff, and what's left is to find a power stroke.
Also... Crushing mistakes is what he's supposed to do.
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I guess it depends on how you look at it... whether you're "knocking" the older guy or hyping the younger guy, but in the hypothetical world where 2 players are doing the exact same thing, but one is 4 years younger than the other, the guy who is 4 years younger is much more valuable.
I am having a really hard time deciding if we should take anything from the International League hitters seriously. The league is just plain weird this year.
League wide (based on data in excel taken from Fangraphs, calculations are mine and I am usually pretty good about this stuff but am only have a coffee in, numbers are 2022 to 2023):
Batting Average is up 12 points, from .251 to .263
OBP is up 22 (!!!) points from .336 to .358
SLG is up 30 (!!!!!!!) points from .414 to .444
OPS is up 52 points from .750 to .802
BB% is up by 1.8% from 10.12% to 11.8%
K% is down by about .8% from 23.27% to 22.44%
I really, really don't know what to make of this, but I do think it is a reason to temper expectations for the hitters. I don't know if it is weird weather patterns, or teams focusing more on their AAA pitchers working harder on their weaknesses, or just plain bad pitching, or stadium walls being moved in or what. This is just an enormous difference from what was going on in the league last year.
League wide (based on data in excel taken from Fangraphs, calculations are mine and I am usually pretty good about this stuff but am only have a coffee in, numbers are 2022 to 2023):
Batting Average is up 12 points, from .251 to .263
OBP is up 22 (!!!) points from .336 to .358
SLG is up 30 (!!!!!!!) points from .414 to .444
OPS is up 52 points from .750 to .802
BB% is up by 1.8% from 10.12% to 11.8%
K% is down by about .8% from 23.27% to 22.44%
I really, really don't know what to make of this, but I do think it is a reason to temper expectations for the hitters. I don't know if it is weird weather patterns, or teams focusing more on their AAA pitchers working harder on their weaknesses, or just plain bad pitching, or stadium walls being moved in or what. This is just an enormous difference from what was going on in the league last year.
They're not doing the same thing, though. Stephen Scott is blowing Casas's AAA numbers out of the water. Obviously it's in a smaller sample, but like, he's been on a mammoth tear. His slugging percentage is well north of .600 while his OBP is nearly .400. All while posting a BABIP that's sub .300. It's hugely impressive.
Wilyer Abreu is doing approximately what Casas did, though.
Is it also possible there's a lot of good hitters?
I mean, Dalbec is still striking out 33% of the time, so not that much has changed
I never said they were. But you said Scott's age 26 season is better than Casas's age 22 season. So I'm just pointing out the age difference.
I'm curious, & don't watch enough of the actual games, to know how much of the lower BABIP is due to making weaker contact on pitches that are not in his wheelhouse.
I also don't think I'm some sort of Scott hater. I have him 28 compared to SoxProspects having him 41.
The thing with Scott's age is he is from the most poorly-timed draft cohort since the class of '41. College player and 22 already by the time he is drafted, gets his cup at Lowell in (dun dun DUN) 2019 and so is basically already 24 the next time he takes the field two years later. It really feels different once a guy crosses that age 25 line but in prospect progression terms it wouldn't be unfair to kind of look at him as more like 25 right now.
I think it's also worth mentioning that 2023 looks less like a sudden blossoming in the context of 2022 being the first time he was really getting full-time reps at catcher.
I think it's also worth mentioning that 2023 looks less like a sudden blossoming in the context of 2022 being the first time he was really getting full-time reps at catcher.
How much are these increases HR-fueled? Cause we've certainly been breaking lots of temperature records this year.