2024 Red Sox: Better, Worse, or About the Same?
- Thread starter Myt1
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I think they'll be within a range of last year's total such that it'll be hard to say whether they're really "better" or "worse." So, I voted "about the same." To me, that's 75-80 wins or so.
Thanks, @Myt1!
I also went with "about the same." To pick up on the Giolito thread, I think last year's actual result - 78 wins, which included a better-than-that start of the season and a much-worse-than-that end, seems about right. On the plus side, I think the hitting and fielding will tick up as the young guys grow into MLers. On the downside, pitching. To me, it looks like the starters are weaker than last year, and the pen is going to get toasted by a six-man rotation of 4 2/3 starters.
I also went with "about the same." To pick up on the Giolito thread, I think last year's actual result - 78 wins, which included a better-than-that start of the season and a much-worse-than-that end, seems about right. On the plus side, I think the hitting and fielding will tick up as the young guys grow into MLers. On the downside, pitching. To me, it looks like the starters are weaker than last year, and the pen is going to get toasted by a six-man rotation of 4 2/3 starters.
Yup, they weren't as good as they were during the first half, and not as bad as they were to end things.
(I mean, obviously they won, and lost, those games so they were exactly that good and bad at those times. I just figure that they were always destined to be about a .500 club, and I feel the same thing this year. Without Giolito, I'd say worse, but steps forward from some others could help make up for it.)
I thought the team with a (allegedly healthy) Giolito was a bit better than last year, and now with him out a bit worse. So, I said about the same.
I voted better. I'm a springtime optimist....
Head in the sand? Who cares? It's a sport. I want to enjoy the game, it's not going to hurt me or anyone else to go around wearing blinders on. This isn't politics or the environment. Pitching will be better (even if they don't get Montgomery). Defense will be improved. I think there's a lot of energy to prove the doubters wrong.... offense will be about the same?
Head in the sand? Who cares? It's a sport. I want to enjoy the game, it's not going to hurt me or anyone else to go around wearing blinders on. This isn't politics or the environment. Pitching will be better (even if they don't get Montgomery). Defense will be improved. I think there's a lot of energy to prove the doubters wrong.... offense will be about the same?
I think with a healthy Story and Grissom up the middle, peak Devers and a rising Casas, and hopefully a full season of 1st half Yoshida at DH with some of the youngsters in the OF in Rafaela and Abreu, this will be an exciting offense.
While Giolito hurts a bit, I would wager on the pitching staff being healthier than last year (has to be, right?) overall, with solid contributions from Houck / Whitlock / Winck relative to last year, a really strong bullpen, and hopefully Bello making a leap, 2nd Half Pivetta being real, and the New & Improved Red Sox Pitching Factory producing a couple of surprises.
I think this team surprises on the upside and competes for 84-87 wins.
While Giolito hurts a bit, I would wager on the pitching staff being healthier than last year (has to be, right?) overall, with solid contributions from Houck / Whitlock / Winck relative to last year, a really strong bullpen, and hopefully Bello making a leap, 2nd Half Pivetta being real, and the New & Improved Red Sox Pitching Factory producing a couple of surprises.
I think this team surprises on the upside and competes for 84-87 wins.
I voted worse. How long till one of our ‘healthy’ starting pitchers has some arm/elbow/core issues and we’re back using openers, burning through the alleged middle-long guys in the pen? We have absolutely no depth in Worcester and I’m afraid by June/July we’ll be sending out the ‘24 version of Bear-Claw to start games.
There was more talent on last year's team, but they underperformed and got hurt. This year's team might be worse on paper, but could easily win more games.
About the same with a larger chance of being worse than better given the poor state of the rotation
I was probably at 'about the same' *with* Giolito, tbh. Sale and Paxon combined for nearly 200 innings of just better than league average pitching and 13-10, I wasn't sure Giolito could replace that even up, but I thought some of the young 'uns could level up.
I'd like to be on the upside train with SLT and RG33, but...like I said elsewhere, I'm getting a 2023 Pats o-line vibe from all the "the injuries are minor, nothing to worry about" stuff around Grissom (and Duran?), and it seems like the bullpen is built to keep the Sox in games that are close...but not for 4 innings + every day.
I read the minor league thread multiple times a day (thanks, @JM3!), but as Coachster said, that depth isn't going to help us this season.
Why better? Well, I am an optimist, so I cannot help myself!
More seriously, the mental aspect in baseball is huge. I am convinced that the Sox are in much better hands than in previous seasons. The enthusiasm that the new GM and pitching gurus have brought is contagious, especially with a group of young talented players eager to prove they belong (Grissom, Wong, Casas, Rafaela, Duran, Valdez, Reyes, etc.), alongside veterans that also want to prove themselves after subpar past seasons (Story, Yoshida, O'Neill, etc.).
So why not?
More seriously, the mental aspect in baseball is huge. I am convinced that the Sox are in much better hands than in previous seasons. The enthusiasm that the new GM and pitching gurus have brought is contagious, especially with a group of young talented players eager to prove they belong (Grissom, Wong, Casas, Rafaela, Duran, Valdez, Reyes, etc.), alongside veterans that also want to prove themselves after subpar past seasons (Story, Yoshida, O'Neill, etc.).
So why not?
Worse, largely because our already razor thin margin for error on injuries has now evaporated without Giolito. I love potential upside of this team, and I'm rooting for good injury luck from here on our, but even "normal" amounts of injuries and a few players not hitting their upsides will probably be enough to sink our ship.
Worse, maybe Gio’s elbow shredded the last of my optimism? Genuinely excited to see what the young position players do, both IF and OF, but the rotation…not at all.
Again, recency bias, but the pitching program is seemingly more like Cubs and Rays on some level ‘push them till they pop and see who’s left’ and the carnage hasn’t started yet. Assume this will payout at some point but up front I just expect more attrition without corresponding depth.
Again, recency bias, but the pitching program is seemingly more like Cubs and Rays on some level ‘push them till they pop and see who’s left’ and the carnage hasn’t started yet. Assume this will payout at some point but up front I just expect more attrition without corresponding depth.
Looking down the division, Baltimore should be a lot better (add Burnes, kids maturing, Holliday on the way), MFY should be better (Soto, more Judge, Rodon positive regression), TB should be worse (lose Wander and Glasnow, Yandy regression… but they always have a wave of young talent). Blue Jays about the same (lose Chapman, but fairly intact from 2023).
Sox incremental line-up improvements and somewhat weakened pitching makes their overall talent a little below water, but against the competition I’d expect they do at least a few games worse.
Sox incremental line-up improvements and somewhat weakened pitching makes their overall talent a little below water, but against the competition I’d expect they do at least a few games worse.
While there are some warts on this team, I actually think they are better constructed than last year, especially up the middle. I have learned my lesson from my obvious overexuberance last season, but this team was within striking distance of the wild card in August last year, and I think the improved defense up the middle will help the starting pitchers go at least a little deeper into the game from the start of the season.
My projection in the other thread was 87 wins, and I am sticking with that, even after the Giolito injury.
Who knows, maybe by this time next year I will be beaten down enough to project 100 losses like some of the people around here seem to seriously believe.
My projection in the other thread was 87 wins, and I am sticking with that, even after the Giolito injury.
Who knows, maybe by this time next year I will be beaten down enough to project 100 losses like some of the people around here seem to seriously believe.
I voted better, but not by a lot
Health will dictate this, but ATM I expect the team defense to be much better than last season. The middle infield has been stabilized and overall I think the outfield should be improved. The pitching will probably be a season long work in progress, but if the defense can help lessen the strain on the rotation and In turn prevent prolonged stretches of overuse from the bullpen I'm hopeful we might break .500. Also a more consistent offense vs the all or nothing version that's been prevalent these past two seasons would be helpful.
Health will dictate this, but ATM I expect the team defense to be much better than last season. The middle infield has been stabilized and overall I think the outfield should be improved. The pitching will probably be a season long work in progress, but if the defense can help lessen the strain on the rotation and In turn prevent prolonged stretches of overuse from the bullpen I'm hopeful we might break .500. Also a more consistent offense vs the all or nothing version that's been prevalent these past two seasons would be helpful.
I voted worse for just about the same reasons Mugsy detailed above. The competition we play in the East got better. Two of those teams identified their needs and got the job done quickly via trades. It seemed Sox were hamstrung when we tried to get pitching via trades, and then we found out the prospects we had were not deemed as valuable as other club's systems. We're still a year behind being "better".
On the offensive side, the Sox should expect to improve on the 84 OPS+ they got from their 2B last year and the 79 OPS+ they got from the shortstops. If Casas and Devers step it up, which is reasonable, there are a some more runs there too.
But I am taking the under on the 2024 CFers matching the 2023 CF production of 275/332/495, 51 doubles and 25 HRs, 125 OPS+.
There is massive variation in the potential results in the OF, even setting aside injury. If O'Neill reproduces his 2021, that alone shifts the outlook massively, and maybe puts us in the hunt.
As for the pitching, it is almost comical how much Giolito going down supports a Montgomery signing.
But I am taking the under on the 2024 CFers matching the 2023 CF production of 275/332/495, 51 doubles and 25 HRs, 125 OPS+.
There is massive variation in the potential results in the OF, even setting aside injury. If O'Neill reproduces his 2021, that alone shifts the outlook massively, and maybe puts us in the hunt.
As for the pitching, it is almost comical how much Giolito going down supports a Montgomery signing.
Current roster? Worse. Add a good pitcher? About the same. But I see no point in spending that kind of money on a pitcher to get them closer to .500
I voted worse, largely due to the mental aspect, though the talent on paper is worse in its own right. Following another offseason of the team refusing to add a major piece the team will check out at the first sign of real trouble knowing no help is on the way but parts could be sold at any moment. Hell, they've already moved one major league part and are all but begging teams to take another part off their hands and it's not even Opening Day yet.
I voted worse, but I would love to be wrong. I do think there are some slight reasons for optimism. Grissom will be better than our 100 different 2B last year, a healthy Story helps, Duran could add a speed/on base element to the top of the order that we only had for a short time last year, Casas hasn't peaked yet, and other young players like Rafaela and Abreu could surprise. But I voted worse because of the starting pitching and the lack of pitching depth in general. When it's only early March and instead of thinking "who's going to win that battle for the 5th starter" or "what will we do with our 6th and 7th starters? Will they be in the bullpen or AAA?", but instead we are thinking "who the heck is our 6th starter" and "can our 4th and 5th starter pitch deep enough into games to not tax the bullpen by July?" then we have a poorly constructed roster, especially on the pitching side.
Some people are always a little optimistic going into a season. Nothing wrong with that.
I thought they would be about the same with Giolito and I think they'll be the same without him. Even with him healthy I still didn't think there was enough depth of talent on the pitching staff to get this team more than 81 wins. Even if he was lights-out all season, that still leaves 80% of the starts to be made by guys who might go six strong innings but could just as easily get shelled and be showering by the third inning.
I think we as fans - understandably! - tend to overstate the contributions of a single player. So I thought they were a little better than last year on Monday, and I still think they’re a little better on Wednesday, despite what happened on Tuesday. I think the kids step up.
I think both the ceilings and the floors of most of the roster are higher than last year. Casas won't need a month to adjust to ML pitching. O'Neill can produce better than Verdugo. A full season of Abreu. Duran will come down to earth but with Rafaela coming he will also play less. Wong and Yoshida making second-year adjustments. Much of the roster are at the ages where players improve. Story merely needs to not get hurt and hit adequately so long as his defense is still there. Crawford, Houck, and Whitlock are hungry. I'm not even thinking about Giolito, though someone will need to eat the innings. The bullpen is still solid and deep. Fewer openers, fewer randos out of the bullpen. It's there.
They lost their arguably 2 best starters, and replaced them with Connor Criswell. Duvall-O’Neill is probably a wash.
So I guess it’s how well Grissom and Story play.
voted worse
So I guess it’s how well Grissom and Story play.
voted worse
sadly, I agree here. ST season-ending injuries truly suck. The bright side is that the Sox can make a move. The other side is that they probably will not now.
I voted better. I guess I think the lineup improvements should be seen as more than “incremental,” as someone called them above.
I expect more production, whether oWAR or dWAR, from the following roster spots:
1b +
2b ++
SS ++
3B +
CF +
LF +
I expect a decline in production from precisely zero of them. I also expect a considerably improved defense that should really help the pitching.
Do I think we need another SP? I do. Do I think we’ll get one? I do.
I expect more production, whether oWAR or dWAR, from the following roster spots:
1b +
2b ++
SS ++
3B +
CF +
LF +
I expect a decline in production from precisely zero of them. I also expect a considerably improved defense that should really help the pitching.
Do I think we need another SP? I do. Do I think we’ll get one? I do.
I don't see how this is a question. The Sox lost Turner, Duvall, Verdugo, Sale, and Paxton and replaced them with a bunch of question marks. Some improvement from Yoshida, probably, and maybe a few other young'uns, but that will be offset by their two best relievers turning 38 and 37. Unless Bailey is a miracle worker this is a shitty rotation and a mediocre bullpen at best. And the lineup is a huge downgrade unless Tyler O'Neill thinks its 2021 again and Grissom/Abreu/Rafaela are all Rookie of the Year candidates.
This is largely where I'm at.
Worse, but I don't think catastrophically worse. Like 74-76 wins. Which still stinks, like last year.
I'm fully confident about 2 guys in the lineup: Devers and Cassas. I'm hopeful that Story returns to form and we get first half Yoshida. After that? Who freakin' knows.
I'm not optimistic that Duran's success is sustainable, and everyone else is some kind of question mark. For example, I read some folks saying that we've "solved" 2B with Grissom, but the guy's a rookie. He could be Kike 2.0 for all we know, at least this season.
Meanwhile, I think the rotation is going to be bottom half of the AL. I like Bello, but I need to see another ~15 starts from Crawford to feel confident he's not going to turn into a pumpkin. If he doesn't (fingers crossed) I have no such faith in Houck - he was awful too often before he got hurt last year, and even when he wasn't his innings pitched were a joke.
Basically, other than 2020, I can't recall a season since the early 90s when we had questions about so many guys in the lineup and rotation. If things don't break extremely well, we're sunk.
True to an extent, but you have to go through the whole list. Like, for example, they placed the-lampost-that-was-Enrique-Hernandez with a baseball player. Which has got to be worth -help me with the math here- 22 wins?
I voted "about the same" even though I think they're going to finish with around 6 or 7 fewer wins than they had last year.
Point being, I think Breslow is a better executive than Bloom and won't fail the deadlines as miserably as Bloom did the last two (or D minused if one really likes Abreu and Valdez from 2022).
Come July I think they're going to be within a few games of WC3, because in an era where nearly half the league makes the playoffs, it takes a special kind of suck to be more than 5 games out of 6th place three months into the season. At that point, I think Breslow will either a) make a big move to address the most glaring weakness on the team for the short and long term, which I'm all but certain will be starting pitching and IF he can't do that, I think he'd sell and sell hard - like Bloom should have done in 2022 and 2023.
So the team up to July will be about the same. Then when Breslow isn't able to land "Logan Gilbert" or whomever, he's going to sell off whomever isn't hurt and isn't sucking of Jansen, Martin, Pivetta, O'Neill and Refsnyder and any bullpen pieces where he can get a Sandlin like value.
Point being, I think Breslow is a better executive than Bloom and won't fail the deadlines as miserably as Bloom did the last two (or D minused if one really likes Abreu and Valdez from 2022).
Come July I think they're going to be within a few games of WC3, because in an era where nearly half the league makes the playoffs, it takes a special kind of suck to be more than 5 games out of 6th place three months into the season. At that point, I think Breslow will either a) make a big move to address the most glaring weakness on the team for the short and long term, which I'm all but certain will be starting pitching and IF he can't do that, I think he'd sell and sell hard - like Bloom should have done in 2022 and 2023.
So the team up to July will be about the same. Then when Breslow isn't able to land "Logan Gilbert" or whomever, he's going to sell off whomever isn't hurt and isn't sucking of Jansen, Martin, Pivetta, O'Neill and Refsnyder and any bullpen pieces where he can get a Sandlin like value.
They might finish 4th in the division, which is better than 5th. But really it’s all about the WC race and they finished tied for 9th in the AL standings last year. I’ll say “about the same” and I could see them anywhere from 7th to 12th in the AL.
Hopefully by the trade deadline they are somewhere near enough the WC race to look like they theoretically could be in contention but it’s kind of a stretch, so they end up doing a few minor deals in both directions and don’t sell off the obvious player. I’m getting fond of that and it’s good for the board numbers.
Hopefully by the trade deadline they are somewhere near enough the WC race to look like they theoretically could be in contention but it’s kind of a stretch, so they end up doing a few minor deals in both directions and don’t sell off the obvious player. I’m getting fond of that and it’s good for the board numbers.
I assume they sign Duvall
Better: Grissom/Healthy Story/O'Neil/Better Rafy> loss pf Verdugo/Turner
Even without Giolito the starting pitching will be better than last year.
Better: Grissom/Healthy Story/O'Neil/Better Rafy> loss pf Verdugo/Turner
Even without Giolito the starting pitching will be better than last year.
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Baseball is one of the few places I allow myself to be optimistic.
I think the infield should be improved substantially, as others have pointed out. Grissom/Reyes/Valdez|Story/Reyes should be a substantial upgrade over what they trotted out there last year, because Arroyo, Kike, and Hamilton were horrifyingly bad (and Urias, Chang, and Story weren't much better). We're talking literally about a four-five game swing if Grissom and Story play to projections or even right under them.
I'd add I'm bullish on Abreu (love his power, love his HH%, love his plate discipline), and less optimistic about Duran (although I love what he brings), and O'Neill, if he can stay healthy, is due for a season where his BABIP is over .300 -- if he gets there he's an above average hitter at least... and if he starts hitting like he did a couple years back, in addition to all the things above I've outlined, suddenly you're looking at 90 plus win team. And the outfield defense will be better with O'Neill or Duran in left, I think. Oh! And I think Yoshida will be disciplined throughout the year and post a wrc+ around 115-120.
Then there's the pitching. I think the bullpen is substantially better, with a lot of high upside arms that actually have excellent track records (Campbell, Slaten, Weissert andas opposed to the Ort/Mata wishcasting), and the starting staff, while down a Sale and a Paxton, could see substantial improvements from Bello and Crawford, who were above-average in their first full-season exposure to the big leagues. And if Houck and Whitlock stay healthy and pitch closers to their peripherals (in front of better defense), and Pivetta continues to have freakish success with that new sweeper, the sky is the freaking limit. I also think they still might go out and get Montgomery...
Now, logically, I know all of that won't happen, and that it's as likely that everything falls apart, but why indulge in gloom...
I think the infield should be improved substantially, as others have pointed out. Grissom/Reyes/Valdez|Story/Reyes should be a substantial upgrade over what they trotted out there last year, because Arroyo, Kike, and Hamilton were horrifyingly bad (and Urias, Chang, and Story weren't much better). We're talking literally about a four-five game swing if Grissom and Story play to projections or even right under them.
I'd add I'm bullish on Abreu (love his power, love his HH%, love his plate discipline), and less optimistic about Duran (although I love what he brings), and O'Neill, if he can stay healthy, is due for a season where his BABIP is over .300 -- if he gets there he's an above average hitter at least... and if he starts hitting like he did a couple years back, in addition to all the things above I've outlined, suddenly you're looking at 90 plus win team. And the outfield defense will be better with O'Neill or Duran in left, I think. Oh! And I think Yoshida will be disciplined throughout the year and post a wrc+ around 115-120.
Then there's the pitching. I think the bullpen is substantially better, with a lot of high upside arms that actually have excellent track records (Campbell, Slaten, Weissert andas opposed to the Ort/Mata wishcasting), and the starting staff, while down a Sale and a Paxton, could see substantial improvements from Bello and Crawford, who were above-average in their first full-season exposure to the big leagues. And if Houck and Whitlock stay healthy and pitch closers to their peripherals (in front of better defense), and Pivetta continues to have freakish success with that new sweeper, the sky is the freaking limit. I also think they still might go out and get Montgomery...
Now, logically, I know all of that won't happen, and that it's as likely that everything falls apart, but why indulge in gloom...
I think this is in the realm of possibility, but still far from probable. Also quite concerned about everyone but Bello and Pivetta hitting a wall in August.
You can't just say Healthy Story > Injured Story because the 2024 team is going to have plenty of injuries too. We just don't know who they'll happen to.
Well, no, of course we can't just say -- we can't just say anything with any certainty. Just as you can't say the 2024 team will have plenty of injuries with any certainty. Last year's team saw Duvall, Duran, and Story all miss substantial time, and then on top of that Kike and Arroyo went full pumpkin - the only people who really played over their heads, imo, were Duran, Verdugo, and Duvall, and the latter two not substantially more than we were expecting. So yes, Devers or Casas might go down, or our entire pitching staff might get really drunk one night and drive off the pier and die in a tragic clown car accident, etc., but we're going for ceteris paribus here, I would think. We're all having a little fun guessing, laying out our cases for our relative optimism or pessimism.
But I do think given that the middle infield was like negative 3 fWAR for the course of the last year, with Arroyo and Kike combining for an OBP of like .260 over 500 plate appearances, that we're probably going to top that.
EDIT: I'll add that I think the best case for this team being better than average is last year's team really really did not have anyone have an outstanding season and keep it up for the whole year. Duran was on his way to a 4-5 win season before he got hurt, Yoshida went from a careful hitter to a blindfolded kid swinging at a pinata, Duvall was playing the best baseball of his life and then turned back into himself. The reason I'm optimistic is there's a host of guys who might be mediocre, but who have also played 4-6 win baseball in the past (Story, Devers, and O'Neill) and if we hit on 3/3 or even 2/3, man, and mostly everybody else plays at or around their projections, this would be an outstanding team.
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No, but we could say that 2023 Red Sox injury index was basically average. And it's pretty safe to assume that 2024 will be roughly average as well (though ESPN thinks the risks are a bit lower now, mostly because Chris Sale isn't on the roster, though I don't think that counts Giolito)
Sure, but my whole point here is that the place where they lost the most time -- SS -- was the place where they also suffered the worst performance. The crap we ran out at SS ended up being, like, 3 wins below replacement level, and if Story is even a 2 win player that's a huge swing in value. That's all I'm getting at.
Again, it's possible Story falls off a cliff or gets injured again, and Grissom is terrible at 2B and his hit tool evaporates, but I think the more likely outcome at least there is that we're getting a floor of around 5 wins (combined) from those two positions rather than the disaster we got last year.
This is all somewhat fair and I do think we're underestimating the drag the black holes at SS and 2B had on the 2023 team.
Still, the 2023 Sox also got ~5 WAR from Sale, Paxton, and Turner, and after Giolito's injury it seems none of them will have been replaced by new additions. Plus they're one more injury in the rotation (effectively a lock at some point) from running out openers and/or completely untested AAA depth.
Ultimately I vote for "About The Same," but don't discount the possibility that, like the 2023 Patriots, a mediocre roster that takes a few injury hits and suffers from a few down years can become a bad roster in a hurry.
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Oh well yeah. I’m optimistic for 82-83 wins with things breaking right and good health from here out….. Grissom coming back- and no Montgomery, but it’s March. Ask me again at the end of April and I could change it to way worse!
But why not be optimistic for now? I have zero control over what the team is and there’s a good cluster of players that could be borderline Allstars. I’ll live in my dumb optimism for now
edit- I was not bullish on Giolito so don’t think his injury changes anything and may even create an opportunity to gain a few wins. Add Montgomery and they’re a 88 win team