2024 Playoffs Western Conference First Round: (4) LA Clippers vs (5) Dallas Mavericks

ElUno20

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I was reading the Athletic post mortem today with the argument to run it back with PG13. It's a conundrum as he's terrific and a version of this squad with a healthy Kawhi (similar to Philly words about Embiid) is still scary. Don't really see a better option.

That said, beyond the obvious question for both Philly and L.A. of what are the chances they'll be healthy for a playoff run, in the Clippers case you do get a strong sense that they don't care very much. Kawhi, PG13, and Harden are all L.A. kids. Per your thought that PG might just prefer to stay home to be with kids, I can easily imagine a team not just older by a year but also even more dis-spirited than this squad -- just going through the motions for the 9 to 5 job before heading home to a Malibu mansion (put that way, can't say I'd blame them).
See that's the thing. It's a player option for 48m. If he just opts in, opens the new stadium, takes a whatever deal with the lakers after, then he can just stay in LA with his family.
 

ElUno20

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I can’t see that happening as they’ll be moving into a new arena and want a somewhat competitive team. Running it back is really their only choice. Can’t go into a rebuild.
This fantasy talk but I'd let everyone walk, hope pg leaves and send Kawhi to Charlotte or Detroit for a 2nd round pick.
 

Sam Ray Not

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sort of? They were mostly old and while best in the regular season, they were all shown in playoffs to not even be playoff-competitive. So pretty easy to make case it was very deep division (no bad teams) but also thoroughly mediocre
For sure. I just meant “best by total W-L” (and by “best worst team”).
 
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InstaFace

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I will take this L: I thought the Clippers were way better than their record and would roll this series and perhaps threaten OKC.

I can't quite fathom what happened.

Edit: obviously Kawhi was injured, but that was quite a fall from how they looked in January, dealing us our first home loss and quite emphatically. Even without him, it seemed to me that they'd have enough to get past a Dallas whose defense was deeply suspect. I guess George just went cold at the exact time they needed him to pull more weight.
 
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Euclis20

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I will take this L: I thought the Clippers were way better than their record and would roll this series and perhaps threaten OKC.

I can't quite fathom what happened.
Lots of stuff went wrong, but if you knew that Kawhi Leonard was only going to play 2 games in this series (and that he'd play like total shit), would you have given them any chance at all? I wouldn't have. It's fun to throw blame on PG and Harden (and maybe Lue), but ultimately, they didn't have a chance without their best player.
 

tims4wins

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Lots of stuff went wrong, but if you knew that Kawhi Leonard was only going to play 2 games in this series (and that he'd play like total shit), would you have given them any chance at all? I wouldn't have. It's fun to throw blame on PG and Harden (and maybe Lue), but ultimately, they didn't have a chance without their best player.
But isn’t that the entire point with the Clips? That you can’t count on Kawhi to be healthy.
 

DavidTai

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I will take this L: I thought the Clippers were way better than their record and would roll this series and perhaps threaten OKC.

I can't quite fathom what happened.
Playoff Harden? I saw this earlier.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nba/james-harden-sets-dreadful-playoff-record-in-game-5-loss/ar-AA1o26FD

The excellent games he's had seem to get overlooked by his futility in shooting in these games. Nobody's gonna remember his game 4 when he follows it up with clunkers.
 

Euclis20

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But isn’t that the entire point with the Clips? That you can’t count on Kawhi to be healthy.
Sure, and I've been saying that all year (or some combination of "their main guys are totally unreliable"). I'm just saying there's no mystery about what happened - Kawhi wasn't available. That was both easy to foresee and easy to explain.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I will take this L: I thought the Clippers were way better than their record and would roll this series and perhaps threaten OKC.

I can't quite fathom what happened.
Maybe it’s as simple as they ran into the best defensive team with the best record over the last two months? They don’t do it pretty but they have come together just as the Clippers did back in December….except they are doing it at the right time.
 

InstaFace

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Maybe it’s as simple as they ran into the best defensive team with the best record over the last two months? They don’t do it pretty but they have come together just as the Clippers did back in December….except they are doing it at the right time.
I think this is probably the root of it - I must be underrating Dallas somewhat severely.

Obviously they weren't winning the West without a 100% Kawhi taking the pressure off Harden and George and Powell and the others, and letting them shine like Derrick White when Miami overplays Tatum. I just thought Dallas was a speed bump for them, relatively speaking, and I must not be appreciating their evolution as a team.
 

ManicCompression

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Maybe it’s as simple as they ran into the best defensive team with the best record over the last two months? They don’t do it pretty but they have come together just as the Clippers did back in December….except they are doing it at the right time.
This “they’re doing it at the right time” narrative is just circular logic. If they lost to the Clippers, does that mean they peaked too early to end the season?

Momentum is not a finite resource. It’s typically a combination of health and schedule. The mavs are healthy and they faced a weakened version of the clippers without their best player. That’s why they won, not because they’re peaking at the right time. If they lose to okc, it will not be because they peaked at the wrong time.
 

InstaFace

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This “they’re doing it at the right time” narrative is just circular logic. If they lost to the Clippers, does that mean they peaked too early to end the season?

Momentum is not a finite resource. It’s typically a combination of health and schedule. The mavs are healthy and they faced a weakened version of the clippers without their best player. That’s why they won, not because they’re peaking at the right time. If they lose to okc, it will not be because they peaked at the wrong time.
That's a pretty uncharitable way to frame HRB's post. I took him to mean that the Mavericks were playing better (getting results) because they were playing better, i.e. were executing better at both ends. For specific reasons he could probably elaborate on, but weren't necessary to address my open statement. He didn't use the word "peaked" once - you put that in his mouth, sarcastically, twice.

Glancing at Dallas's pre/post ASB splits, they are winning at a much higher rate (32-23 vs 18-9), driven by higher steals, blocks, fewer fouls, and consequently much improved defense (117.2 p/g pre, 112.4 post). CTG has their defense rated #6 since Feb 1st on a rating basis. So there's something going on there, which isn't just results-oriented faux-analysis.
 

ManicCompression

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That's a pretty uncharitable way to frame HRB's post. I took him to mean that the Mavericks were playing better (getting results) because they were playing better, i.e. were executing better at both ends. For specific reasons he could probably elaborate on, but weren't necessary to address my open statement. He didn't use the word "peaked" once - you put that in his mouth, sarcastically, twice.

Glancing at Dallas's pre/post ASB splits, they are winning at a much higher rate (32-23 vs 18-9), driven by higher steals, blocks, fewer fouls, and consequently much improved defense (117.2 p/g pre, 112.4 post). CTG has their defense rated #6 since Feb 1st on a rating basis. So there's something going on there, which isn't just results-oriented faux-analysis.
HRB frequently talks about peaking at the right time. That’s pretty obviously what he’s talking about here, referencing the clippers peaking too early.
 

HomeRunBaker

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This “they’re doing it at the right time” narrative is just circular logic. If they lost to the Clippers, does that mean they peaked too early to end the season?

Momentum is not a finite resource. It’s typically a combination of health and schedule. The mavs are healthy and they faced a weakened version of the clippers without their best player. That’s why they won, not because they’re peaking at the right time. If they lose to okc, it will not be because they peaked at the wrong time.
They were the best team in the league over the last two months but thank you for the lesson. ;)

The Clippers began faltering when they still healthy a long time ago. For whatever reason they lost their edge, ability to execute at a high level and seemed bored as they stopped doing what got them to the top of the WC. If you wish to beleive momentum such as this doesn’t exist go right ahead but it occurs all the time year after year no matter what you want to coin it.

@InstaFace I’ve been speaking glowingly about Dallas for many weeks now when they were my longshot pick to face Boston in The Finals as they turned their identify completely around at the trade deadline w PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford. I also wouldn’t call them healthy with Kleber out and Doncic hobbling around.
 
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ManicCompression

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Their schedule to end the season was incredibly easy. They also added players at the deadline. It’s not like they magically started learning how to play together as a team at the right time - the circumstances around them changed.

Same way that the Clippers schedule in the early part of the year made them look better than they were, or the Cavs schedule made them look better than they were. Really curious what you’re going to say if they lose in one of the next two rounds - will they have lost momentum? They should’ve saved their late regular season run for the playoffs?
 

Smokey Joe

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Quite frankly, I felt the the Mavericks impressive play over the last 2 months of the regular season was more an artifact of the schedule and teams not caring as we got towards the end of the season. I expected that they would quickly fold in the postseason especially because their best players on offense are famous for their disinterest in defense. I imagined that teams like the Clips would be licking their chops when faced with the opportunity to attack Kyrie and Luka. Now I don’t know what is going on with this team. Did they advance because the Clips were pathetic? Or do they actually have some defensive capabilities?
I am interested in what the Thunder can do against them.
 

lars10

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Quite frankly, I felt the the Mavericks impressive play over the last 2 months of the regular season was more an artifact of the schedule and teams not caring as we got towards the end of the season. I expected that they would quickly fold in the postseason especially because their best players on offense are famous for their disinterest in defense. I imagined that teams like the Clips would be licking their chops when faced with the opportunity to attack Kyrie and Luka. Now I don’t know what is going on with this team. Did they advance because the Clips were pathetic? Or do they actually have some defensive capabilities?
I am interested in what the Thunder can do against them.
The Clippers are a disjointed mess of three stars.. when they’re all playing and playing with confidence.. they’re as good as any team in the NBA. Problem is that they do that about a month a year and it’s not in the playoffs.

If the mavs win this series I’ll be impressed.