Yes.
He gets gassed more often than not late in games now and absolutely will not last through 2 months of this, even if they made it out of this round.
2024 Playoffs Western Conference First Round: (2) Denver Nuggets vs (7) LA Lakers
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He gets gassed more often than not late in games now and absolutely will not last through 2 months of this, even if they made it out of this round.
Agree with all this. I don't want to be accused of Celtics-hopium-posting, since Denver is very good (getting bored of giving that disclaimer endlessly), but I think the path to beating them starts on the perimeter.
You have to get Jokic running and rotating, and you do that by putting the Nuggets in a math bind, where you're simply getting too many good looks from 3. It's not easy, since they rotate so well behind the main action, but so does Miami, and the Cs are showing what they can do if they have time to prepare for that.
Unfortunately, you probably will have to have a lot of halfcourt possessions against Denver, since you need a lot of guys back to rebound the ball. If you don't, Gordon and Jokic are going to kill you on the glass, and you really can't afford to lose the possession game.
That's really interested---nice work by you and Steve F!
What is league average win % on winning (or losing) FT attempts?
Arent these the expectations though? I know for myself they were as Denver CLEARLY has another execution gear down the stretch of close games regardless of having multiple bigs who matchup (relatively) fine w Jokic. You can’t double and give up 3, you force as difficult a 2 as possible and hope a couple role out….they you have to hit 3’s on the other end if you’re trailing. If you have the lead you can afford to matchup BUT your 2’s are going to be of much greater difficulty.
The Lakers offense wasn’t doing anything outstanding in the 1H though either. If not for DAR and AD going nuclear shooting the ball they would have struggled to reach the mid-40’s in the 1H.Yep. The Lakers offense completely stalled in the 2nd half (40 points) Apprehension Central in the halfcourt, barely getting shots off before the 24. Maybe Denver altitude sapped the Bron/AD pick-n-roll by Q4? Dinwiddie/Vincent were no help or energy off the bench. The Lakers have a bunch of clueless defenders in DLo & Prince
We rarely want the Lakers to win but they are creating film on how to slow down the Nuggets' juggernaut. Denver is in for a long playoff run. Minnesota or PHX up next, but hoping LAL gets the League Office to drag this out with a home whistle.
I didn't watch the game but this article says that DEN's switching up on defense (going Gordon on AD and KCP on LBJ) was proximate cause of stopping the LBJ/AD PnR: https://www.denverpost.com/2024/04/23/aaron-gordon-anthony-davis-nuggets-defense-lakers-game-2/Yep. The Lakers offense completely stalled in the 2nd half (40 points
We rarely want the Lakers to win but they are creating film on how to slow down the Nuggets' juggernaut. Denver is in for a long playoff run. Minnesota or PHX up next, but hoping LAL gets the League Office to drag this out with a home whistle.
Tillman is not playing versus DEN if everyone is healthy. It's bad enough that they can put Jokic on Horford but putting Tillman in there means Jokic doesn't have to do anything on defense at all.
Besides, when DEN runs that PnR it's going to be JT on Murray and JB on Jokic.
I could see potentially putting Tillman on Jokic in very-late-game situations when (a) you have the chance to rotate offense-defense with timeouts and fouls and (b) it comes down to a single possession or two where you really need a stop. What we saw last night is that whoever is defending Jokic is quite likely to get switched onto Murray, so you want someone with as much lateral quickness as possible in that scenario, which points in Tillman's favor over Al at this point in their careers.Tillman is not playing versus DEN if everyone is healthy. It's bad enough that they can put Jokic on Horford but putting Tillman in there means Jokic doesn't have to do anything on defense at all.
Besides, when DEN runs that PnR it's going to be JT on Murray and JB on Jokic.
However, I concede that bringing a stone cold Tillman off the bench if he hasn't been playing a lick otherwise might not be the wisest.
I don’t know how anyone can watch LeBron’s 4Q performance last night, on both ends of the floor, and conclude that he was gassed. Naturally it’s the 4Q of a playoff game in altitude but even at 40 he looked as fresh if not more fresh than anyone despite carrying much of the offensive load.
Getting way ahead of things, but were it to happen I bet that Tillman gets 10 minutes a game vs Jokic, actually. I hope we get to find out! He got 13 in second regular season game, as a point of reference.Tillman is not playing versus DEN if everyone is healthy. It's bad enough that they can put Jokic on Horford but putting Tillman in there means Jokic doesn't have to do anything on defense at all.
Besides, when DEN runs that PnR it's going to be JT on Murray and JB on Jokic.
My observation this year was that KP really struggles hugely against Jokic, and that you need to minimize those minutes - opening few and closing few when not situational offense/defense. Horford is a lot better vs Jokic, but he can't handle (nor do you want rotation-wise) 30 minutes of him vs Jokic.
So something like 20-25 for Horford, 10 for Tillman, and 13-18 for KP would be my guess.
The decision CJM has to make - as we've discussed in the past - is yes KP isn't very good guarding Jokic but neither can Jokic run around after KP on the other end either. I mean if you recall, DEN went to Jokic on Jrue in the second game, which is when Jrue hit 3 (IIRC) three pointers).
Once BOS puts Horford in (Tillman is worse since he's not a 40% shooter from 3P - yet
) - Jokic plays Horford, which basically means that Jokic gets to rest on defense. I think Jokic is way better playing Horford than Horford is at playing Jokic so if it were me, I'd see this as a net benefit to DEN.As others have mentioned, DEN can be so efficient on the offensive end that the way people have to beat them is get out running and hit 3Ps. I think BOS should lean into the KP/Jokic matchup so long as KP isnt in foul trouble. Hopefully over a series it will also serve to diminish Jokic's effectiveness as he has to play a lot harder on defense than usual.
It will be a useful test-case if we get to see Denver vs. OKC, since— by god— there's a team with a stretch 5 but with no big body at all to put on Jokic. The Thunder took 3 of 4 from Denver in the regular season, but one game was by a single point and the other had no Jokic, so let's see...The decision CJM has to make - as we've discussed in the past - is yes KP isn't very good guarding Jokic but neither can Jokic run around after KP on the other end either. I mean if you recall, DEN went to Jokic on Jrue in the second game, which is when Jrue hit 3 (IIRC) three pointers).
Once BOS puts Horford in (Tillman is worse since he's not a 40% shooter from 3P - yet
As others have mentioned, DEN can be so efficient on the offensive end that the way people have to beat them is get out running and hit 3Ps. I think BOS should lean into the KP/Jokic matchup so long as KP isnt in foul trouble. Hopefully over a series it will also serve to diminish Jokic's effectiveness as he has to play a lot harder on defense than usual.
My pleasure to help you and Steve. 2023-24 regular season number only since the playoff sample is small, early, and ultimately volatile:
-When having more FTs than opponent: 664-518
-When having fewer FTs than opponent is naturally flipped: 518-664 (Celtics: 23-4; see chart below why this is insane!)
-When having equal FTs as opponent, naturally even: 48-48. 76ers and Grizzlies did not play such a game this season.
Seriously. To try and pin this loss on Lebron's age is ridiculous. Sure, he is not peak 26 year old best player in the world Lebron. Nobody is. He played good enough to win this game and he didn't looked gassed anymore than anyone else
Jesus guys, read the post. I was talking about the Lakers problem in general, pointed out LeBron was impressive late last night, but also that 2 of the last 3 games he was gassed late and cannot sustain it for 2 months to carry the Lakers to a title because there isn’t enough help around him, especially given AD disappears late in games.
Young LeBron could maybe carry this team to the finals on his own, but this version cannot. That doesn’t mean it’s his fault! The roster doesn’t have enough.
Young LeBron could maybe carry this team to the finals on his own, but this version cannot. That doesn’t mean it’s his fault! The roster doesn’t have enough.
I didn’t say any of this. In fact, we are in agreement that he had that gear last night. However, he did not in Game 1, nor the play-in game (can’t blame altitude) and I am highly doubtful he could sustain it for a 25-30 game playoff run.
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Also, I mean what are we doing here? Lol boo hoo Lakers and all, but what the fuck?
Edit - To make clear, since the Tweet doesn’t mention it, this was called a foul on the floor and OVERTURNED via review.
View: https://twitter.com/vkillem/status/1782621073277956139?s=46&t=11SXTvIYT-tl8b6e7iEUVQ
Edit - To make clear, since the Tweet doesn’t mention it, this was called a foul on the floor and OVERTURNED via review.
View: https://twitter.com/vkillem/status/1782621073277956139?s=46&t=11SXTvIYT-tl8b6e7iEUVQ
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Seems similar to the Jaylen call against Indy?
People can like it or not, but the NBA clearly decided in January that they wanted to allow a lot more contact after the ball is released. They have consistently affirmed that in replay review. They also want to allow a lot more marginal contact on plays inside the arc, and more hand-checking on the perimeter. They're also fine with getting handsy in the arm/airspace of guys like KP and Embiid, on foul-line type jumpers.
Sure, there are a few calls that still go the other way, but the overall shift is incredibly clear, and has had a massive impact on scoring.
If anything, they're letting teams amp it up even more in the playoffs.
I'm cautiously optimistic that this benefits teams like the Celtics, because generating clean 3s is the only consistent way to get out of this muck. Even wrt defending guys like Jokic, Giannis and Embiid...it's going to be a lot more doable now that you're allowed to maul them marginally more.
There seems to be a fair amount of denial on the effects of age going on in this thread. Let me assure you the effects are real and they are not merely physical. The decline in mental stamina and slowing of reaction time is very real, especially when you are in high stress situations that go on for hours. When you are younger you can reach down for another gear. As you age that gear gets harder and harder to reach until it’s gone. You can compensate with knowledge and experience, you can put yourself into situations that use your skills to maximal effect with minimal stress, but eventually you cannot perform up to your expectations or if you aren't careful, other peoples expectations of you.
Lebron is doing a spectacular job of managing his final years in a very demanding profession, but if 30 year old or even 35 year old Lebron had been on that floor, the Lakers would have won that game. They would have probably won it earlier and would have been coasting those last few minutes.
Lebron is doing a spectacular job of managing his final years in a very demanding profession, but if 30 year old or even 35 year old Lebron had been on that floor, the Lakers would have won that game. They would have probably won it earlier and would have been coasting those last few minutes.
If this year's version of LBJ and AD were supported by last year's version of Rui and Reeves, this would be an entirely different series. Or, if 1 minute of play were deducted for every 500 ft of altitude above sea level. Since neither of these things are in play, Denver should be able to breathe easy for Round 1 anyway.
For every one of these you could have multiple clips of LeBron or AD barely getting touched and getting FTs. This game wasn’t lost on a few non calls.. lakers missed a bunch of shots late and LeBron being almost peak LeBron almost won it for them… he was a beast in the 4th.. his supporting cast just isn’t great.
Yea, this game was lost because Lebron missed an open three, Reaves was too much of a pussy to grab the airball by Jokic, and Murray made some incredible shots down the stretch
I’m not saying the refs favored one team or another, I’m just so confused by the calls on reviews. They should probably just get rid of the review if this call and the Lowry call were overturned. I mean what’s the point? It’s a terrible look for the league.
Edit - Oh, the Tweet doesn’t make it clear - that was called a foul on the court and OVERTURNED after a seemingly crazy challenge.
I think Jaylen was hit pre-release on the way up?
Either way, I hate it. As I mentioned above, just dump replay. It’s a bad look for the league.
I accept and embrace your apology, mi amigo.
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Nope, Hield got ball, and then hit Jaylen's head afterwards.
People can dislike it all they want, but the league clearly wants to allow a lot more contact post-shot than what was allowed in the 2000s to present. They decided that games were too high-scoring, that it was hurting the product, and this is the result. From their perspective, it is working imo.
People can dislike it all they want, but the league clearly wants to allow a lot more contact post-shot than what was allowed in the 2000s to present. They decided that games were too high-scoring, that it was hurting the product, and this is the result. From their perspective, it is working imo.
As lovegtm alluded to, there seems to be a move towards not calling fouls that used to be called fouls if -
1) the contact does not seem to have any (probably should say "does not seem to have that much") effect on the fouled player;
2) the contact, whatever it is, occurs after the shot is released (this probably cost the Celtics 2 games this year);
3) the contact, whatever it is, occurs after the ball was blocked (this probably cost them one, noted above).
I am therefore not surprised that it might not be a foul to whack someone in the face after the shooter has released the ball. I don't really agree that it shouldn't be a foul but this is what we've seen for awhile this year.
1) the contact does not seem to have any (probably should say "does not seem to have that much") effect on the fouled player;
2) the contact, whatever it is, occurs after the shot is released (this probably cost the Celtics 2 games this year);
3) the contact, whatever it is, occurs after the ball was blocked (this probably cost them one, noted above).
I am therefore not surprised that it might not be a foul to whack someone in the face after the shooter has released the ball. I don't really agree that it shouldn't be a foul but this is what we've seen for awhile this year.
I am shocked and surprised that the NBA has been able to make this drastic of an officiating shift in mid-stream. We’ve asked how can we eliminate flopping….I didn’t think we could bc I didn’t think Silver was going to be able to execute this shift but I’ll be damned, he pulled it off!!
Yes. While all the points made repeatedly in this thread are true (the Nuggets being deeper, younger/more athletic, more clutch, etc.) are certainly true, Malone has clearly outcoached Ham over the past year, which has been a significant factor in winning the close games.
When LA came out running PnR extensively in the 3rd, Denver tried multiple defenses to stop it before finding the best solution. The point being Malone was constantly adjusting, both with strategy and substitutions. Meanwhile, Ham was gassing Lebron and giving Dinwiddie meaningful minutes in the fourth.
Aren’t all of these personnel issues and not coaching? Not sure what “gassing” LeBron I’m the 4Q means with the performance he put on. How would the coaching look if Malone’s option off the bench was Dinwiddie while Ham only had to hand the ball to Murray and Jokic to run their two-man game?
The point the article made was that Ham has Gabe Vincent, who can shoot and has some experience playing against DEN in pressure situations versus Dinwiddie. Ham continues to play Dinwiddie. As I've said, I've not watched the series but it sounds like a suboptimal piece of coaching. Not sure playing Vincent would be better but to me it's hard to keep running someone out there who is -25 in 25 minutes (approximately).
Not to go all thread police, but can we please try to use a different word to express this sentiment?
Me too. Honestly, I'm fairly impressed. They had a vision for what they wanted the product to be, and they executed on that vision in an extremely short timeframe.
Now that I've gotten used to it, and understand what they're going for, I'm mostly ok with it. As I've mentioned elsewhere, I think it will also be very beneficial for this iteration of the Celtics.
Some part of me wonders if ex-players bent the league’s ear about their unhappiness with being relegated to a dead ball era.
It's both personnel and coaching. As Wade Boggs Chicken Dinner references above, Ham does have Gabe Vincent, who was really good against this same Denver team in the finals last year, at his disposal. He also could have played Reaves more instead of Dinwiddie, but nope. And he took Lebron out towards the end of the 3rd quarter, but put him back in after only one minute of rest. Clearly, it didn't work down the stretch.
Do you disagree with my premise of Malone outcoaching Ham repeatedly in this 10-0, year long stretch?
Vincent missed the entire season up until the last couple weeks and the only thing more horrific than his numbers was his movement on the floor. Dinwiddie is a better size matchup but no coach is going to look good when these are his two options. I revert back to my original question….how would Malone look with these options when facing the Murray/Jokic PNR? It’s just not coaching in this example.
Absolutely. My bad.
It is a testament to how much of a beast Aaron Gordon is though. He went up and over Reaves and grabbed that ball no problem
Exactly. Complaining about Ham's coaching is fine, but using not playing Gabe Vincent enough minutes isn't the rationale you're looking for. Lakers are down Wood, Reddish and Vanderbilt also, which really depletes their length and athleticism off the bench.
Lakers played Denver tough at 5280, and may be getting some injured guys back. Game 3 ought to be fun.
I would laugh at Lakers whining about calls, if I didn't know they were sending a direct signal to Adam Silver that they are owed a game.
Philosophical question.
Root for Denver to shiv the Lakers with a semi mortal 3-0 series lead
Or
Hope LAL wins and push the series.
I'm in shiv and bury the LAL asap camp
Root for Denver to shiv the Lakers with a semi mortal 3-0 series lead
Or
Hope LAL wins and push the series.
I'm in shiv and bury the LAL asap camp
LAL win and pushes the series. Denver heavily relies on their TOP5, we want them beat to hell by the Finals
If you want the Celtics to win a banner you want Denver out. LAL won’t win 4 of the next 5 but it would be ideal for Denver to play as many games as possible.
On the other hand if Boston doesn't make the finals, I'd rather see Denver there than LA.
One of those moments where I'm glad that rooting for one team actually doesn't make any difference. Watching these games I naturally find myself rooting against the Lakers, so that's it I guess.
LAL losing is always a good thing. There are other teams in the west that can/will push Denver
So this is how you put your foot on the neck and squeeze the life out of an inferior opponent. Interesting.
Perhaps a certain other team could learn a thing or two about this concept.
Perhaps a certain other team could learn a thing or two about this concept.