Isn’t he an elite and generational defender? He doesn’t have to hit much to be an upgrade on the position from last year.
2024 - Path to 90 Wins
- Thread starter jbupstate
- Start date
"Much" =/= "At all"
Trade for a rental who's shown they can be a respectable hitter at the MLB level, give Rafaela a full year of regular AB in AAA, give him and Yorke a try in the fall.
I think Rafaela's long term value is highest in the OF anyway, given the depth of infielders we have in the pipeline. Ideally you want both him and Yorke to succeed in Boston because RHB are kind of a scarce commodity for us.
Trade for a rental who's shown they can be a respectable hitter at the MLB level, give Rafaela a full year of regular AB in AAA, give him and Yorke a try in the fall.
I think Rafaela's long term value is highest in the OF anyway, given the depth of infielders we have in the pipeline. Ideally you want both him and Yorke to succeed in Boston because RHB are kind of a scarce commodity for us.
6 teams make the playoffs, we’re ranked 10th in the AL by team war on fangraphs. To get to 6th and be above the Orioles, we need to find 4 more wins. It’s not a lot IMO. This team can be competitive with another 2-3 good moves.
One starting pitcher will get us very close. It’s going to sound crazy but if we get a 3-win pitcher like Montgomery or Snell, we would have the 4th ranked pitching war based on projections.
Trade Kenley, eat some money, get a good prospect and flip with our surplus for Keller, then sign Montgomery. That’ll get us to 40 team war, which would be 6th in the AL.
One starting pitcher will get us very close. It’s going to sound crazy but if we get a 3-win pitcher like Montgomery or Snell, we would have the 4th ranked pitching war based on projections.
Trade Kenley, eat some money, get a good prospect and flip with our surplus for Keller, then sign Montgomery. That’ll get us to 40 team war, which would be 6th in the AL.
Putting the Teoscar rumours in context, I imagine it’s signing him to 3/$45m, flipping Duran, Yorke and whoever we get for Kenley for someone like Mitch Keller. Then signing Montgomery. Depending on how much money we take on for Kenley’s contract, we would probably be at around $220-225m.
Total projected WAR remains around 40, but we have more right handed hitters and also more power.
Total projected WAR remains around 40, but we have more right handed hitters and also more power.
The shortest path to 90 wins, whether that be in 2024 or beyond, is through internal development.
Fundamentally, Boston's biggest problem is that they have enough quality pieces to not be bad, but not enough impact talent to be good. They've been stuck in the middle for a while now. Sure they're a "last place team" but a lot of that has to do with the division. They're very much mid-pack... which in some ways is worse.
Free agency to me, is a great way to fill gaps. Building entirely through free agency requires a team to accept numerous years of below average performance in order to potentially juice outcomes in the short term. Because of this, I've never been upset about Boston's lack of dramatic moves in free agency this off-season. Yomamoto was the only player in free agency this season that felt worth the risk of a 4+ year contract. I want nothing to do with Jordan Montgomery at the rumored 8 years. He's a nice pitcher, but I'm not convinced he's a game changer for a contending team, let alone a team stuck in the middle, like Boston.
Any free agents they sign should be shorter term contracts, from guys either at the end of their careers (Turner last year) or trying to rebound value (Giolito).
There have of course been a lot of reports about Boston exploring the trade market for a cost controlled SP. That's great, they should do that. But they should also be willing to walk away unless they have the right deal. This team, assuming no significant internal development is not 1 good SP away from being a World Series contender.
Now this isn't to say I'm down on the team. I actually think Boston has a couple paths to being a real contender through internal development, they just need some time to figure out what their core is and what it's going to be. They also need some of these guys to take leaps
Present Core:
- (Bullish) Devers is a great bounce back candidate. While it's unusual for a 124 wRC+ season to be seen as a down year, Devers' line vastly underperformed his batted ball data. He should have been closer to 140 than 120. The concerns about his defense are legitimate and disappointing, especially after he'd transformed himself into a pretty average 3B at the beginning of his career but I think there are plenty of reasons to feel optimistic about Devers improving in 2024.
- (Bullish) Casas is a guy that I think almost everyone underrates. As a 23 year old he posted a 92nd percentile wOBA. He looks like an emerging All-Star. Like Devers, the defense was bad last year. Like Devers, this was surprising as almost every report of Casas in the minors was that he was a competent 1B. I don't know if he improves (eye test, he seemed to improve over the season) but I think you have to be optimistic about the offensive profile. It's not difficult to imagine Casas being the 3 or 4 hitter on a contending team.
- (Bullish) Bello is a pitcher who's improved consistently and considerably since 2021. Initial reports suggested he was a tweener between SP and RP. It's clear that he's an SP until he proves otherwise at this point. His Steamer projection is not that different than Jordan Montgomery's. He's most likely a mid rotation starter (ala Montgomery) but it's not impossible he takes a step forward. Either way, if he stays healthy and avoids all the other pitfalls that befall young pitchers, a cost controlled Bello is a super valuable piece.
- (Bearish) Story hasn't been a good hitter in several years. He is a great fielder though should provide some much needed defensive stability at SS. Given his contract, we're stuck with him. The health record and the offense are real concerns.
- (IDK) Yoshida like Story has to be considered part of the core due to his contract. He did so much well in the first half of 23 but ran out of gas. We also are all aware of his defensive shortcomings. There's the upside that he's a consistently solid DH and that's not nothing. There's also considerable risk.
- (IDK) Duran is a guy I almost lumped into the core group. He overperformed his batted ball data in 2023, but that's not terribly uncommon for elite speed players. He also turned himself into a serviceable if not good center fielder which is a huge achievement given his prior struggles. I think most likely he's an okay CF who puts up league average offensive numbers. I think that's pretty valuable, but I also could see him being offloaded in a trade. You have to credit him for being resilient and having worked really hard to get back to the MLB and he's an incredible athlete. It's possible I'm underselling him, but he just "feels" more like a regular to me than a building block. Without a significant contract commitment to him, I think this placement is fair.
- (IDK) Crawford blew away expectations last season but is older than I think most realize (he turns 28 right before opening day). I've long followed him as a prospect. He like Bello was often seen as a tweener. I think it's a pretty limited upside, but even if he's a back end SP, that's hugely valuable when under team control.
- (Bearish) Whitlock and Houck are being lumped here together because I don't believe either should start. Both could be excellent relivers. Neither move the needle that much in the short term if that's their destination though.
- (Bullish) Grissom has been identified as a long term 2B by the front office. He does a lot of things well and deserves a shot at starting at the MLB level. We have a whole thread discussing his attributes and flaws, but he's potentially a cost controlled 2B with upside.
- (Bullish) Abreu seems like a guy who's done about everything he can in the minors to earn a shot and was very solid during his audition last year. He doesn't have any standout skills, but he deserves a shot as a Major Leaguer. He's probably a bat off the bench, but there's upside to be a decent cost controlled corner OF.
Potential Core in Minors (Tier 1, potential impact regulars)
- Anthony put up absurd batted ball numbers in the minors and appears that he can stick in CF. He has some platoon splits issues but apart from that, he just wrapped the best minor league season by anyone not named Jackson Holiday. He's a top 20 prospect in baseball, maybe a top 10.
- Mayer's numbers look pretty bad because was playing through an injury in AA, but he's still a top 20 prospect. Some questions exist about his ability to hit velocity and his batted ball profile. He's not likely a top ten guy at present time, but very easily could be again by midseason.
- Bleis is often forgotten about because he had a lost 2023, but he's still super young and still has some of the loudest tools in minor league baseball. He's probably not a top 100 guy at the moment, but he has plenty of time to get back the top 50.
- Teel is listed here largely due to proximity to the majors and positional scarcity. I think folks may be hyping the bat a bit too much; he's a college hitter excelling in the minors and the quality of play in the minors has been pretty meh post pandemic. Still he has a chance at being an average hitter and a good catcher.
- Rafaela is possibly the best defensive prospect in the minors. He also swings and misses in the zone at rates similar to Javy Baez. I'm not listing whether I'm bullish or bearish on minor leaguers, because they're all developing, but if I was, I'd list bearish. I'm less excited about Rafaela than I probably should. I just don't think he can be anything other than an abysmal hitter with his approach. Still, the glove is good enough that he almost certainly has a major league career.
- Yorke seems like the odd man out in Boston's current top ten. He's now blocked by a player with a similar skill set and similar question marks. He's good enough to be listed here, but it's clear that he's currently not a part of the organization's plan. He needs to produce a lot in 2024 to change that.
- Perales & Gonzalez are lumped here because TINSTAPP, but they both do enough well to track.
So getting back to the 90 wins question.
Boston gets to 90 wins if we see improvements from a couple of the guys listed above. If for example Devers and Casas together are posting wRC+ in the 130s, Grissom turns out to be a 2 win 2B, and one of Anthony, Mayer or Teel become an All-Star, this team is probably a 90 win team by 2025. If not, I don't think signing anyone short of Soto next off-season is going to change things that dramatically.
They really need to figure out who in the org is going to be part of their next window's core. They need to get lucky with respect to someone's development. The good news is that they have enough folks with high upside that we're not just banking on Roman Anthony. There are a lot of different paths for this team to become really good, internally.
Rafaela is seen as an elite CF, a decent SS, and a ? 2B because he hasn't played there (I suppose with expectations that he'd be at least as good at 2B as SS).
I like this approach. It will be pretty easy for the Starting Pitching to be better if only because it is healthier.
My worry is improving on the 772 runs scored.
On the minus side
- No Turner
- No Duvall
- Duran likely to regress
On the plus side
- Story will likely recover.
- Oneil could surprise.
As of this moment, I don't think the offense is as good - but the offseason is not over yet.
It really depends on the health of the regulars.
Lineup
C Wong
1B Casas LHH
2B Grissom
3B Devers LHH
SS Story
LF O'Neill
CF Duran LHH
RF Abreu LHH
DH Masataka Yoshida LHH
Bench
C McGuire LHH
OF Refsnyder
CF/SS Rafela
UT Reyes
Minors?
Dalbec, Hamilton, Yorke.
If you go to Bref and sort for the AL by OPS+, you'll see some familiar names at the top. Among the qualifiers, Casas was #9 and Devers #13. Yoshida, had he not cratered in the last two months, would be somewhere next to Casas and Devers. As it is, he was #30. A full healthy season from all 3 gives you a very credible core.
The rest of the starting lineup has very good upside - but again, health is probably the most important factor. Getting above-average defense at SS, plus a decent Story offense will be a massive upgrade.
The main question marks outside of health are Duran, Grissom, and Abreu. All have better-than-average upside though. O'Neill is something of a wildcard in terms of health and performance. Could be an all-star, could be Refsnyder 2.0.
You confused shortest with cheapest, a common mistake especially if you are taking a Jersey Shore girl to a dinner date. Snooki will take down the surf and turf no problem.
The prospects are not going to get you to 90 wins this season. I don't think Anthony, Mayer, and Teel could get you a top line starter now (unless you were willing to trade for Alcantara and roll the dice he comes back strong in 2025 in which you probably only need two of the three). Outside of those three and Rafaela, no one in the system is going to be in the equation to get some solid starting pitching.
The line up currently constructed is probably around 775-825 runs which means for 90 wins you are only going to be able to give up 700-740 runs. I have no idea how you can look at Bello, Gioloto, Houck, Pivetta, Crawford to get there. In fact I am not sure there is a pitcher that can get Bello, Gioloto, Crawford, Pivetta/Houck to that level. Maybe if Grissom, Devers, and Casas all made big steps forward and are healthy you can squint and say 850 runs which means the pitching would only have to approve 20 or so runs depending on luck.
This looks and smells like 80-85 win team, 85 wins being pretty generous.
Edit - I am an idiot. Alcantara definitely has an insurance policy against him for the team. No way the Marlins are trading away insurance payments inflating their salary number.
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Ha, that's a good line.
I think I might have not done a good job communicating the fact that I don't think the team is likely a 90 win team in 2024. I think they're not. I think this is an 80 win team. I think you'd need to add 2 very good SPs to get there. I don't think Boston can acquire that, either.
Let's say they signed Yamamato, and he was a legit 5 win player as a SP. I still don't think that team wins 90 games, without significant improvements from Casas, Devers and Bello (or Victorinoesque years from O'Niel and others).
That's why I'd rather them try to be an 85 win team with what they got, clarify who the future core is, and move on from there.
I think I might have not done a good job communicating the fact that I don't think the team is likely a 90 win team in 2024. I think they're not. I think this is an 80 win team. I think you'd need to add 2 very good SPs to get there. I don't think Boston can acquire that, either.
Let's say they signed Yamamato, and he was a legit 5 win player as a SP. I still don't think that team wins 90 games, without significant improvements from Casas, Devers and Bello (or Victorinoesque years from O'Niel and others).
That's why I'd rather them try to be an 85 win team with what they got, clarify who the future core is, and move on from there.