2024 NFL Draft 1st round gamethread: Maye the odds be ever in your favor WITH SPOILERS
- Thread starter tims4wins
- Start date
The irony of all this is that Cousins was on the Penix side of the equation when he was drafted by Washington in 2012. RGIII was drafted 2nd overall and people were puzzled that they would also bring in Cousins in the same draft, when they already had their QB1. Ironically, Cousins has gone on to have the better career due to RGIII's injuries.
He's 10000% not plodding. He's not a great separator but I honestly think that that's become way too much of a common negative refrain. He definitely has good play speed (as shown during the gauntlet at the combine) and he's a good route runner. He was also the clear #1 option on FSU and was a pretty damn good punt returner.
I think he would be a very good pick at 34.
Bit different between signing a backup QB and a guy taken 8th.
Like the Falcons would have to win the SB in the next two years for Cousins to not be jettisoned.
Basically Cousins is a $100M Bridge QB.
The Penix thing makes sense to me *if* Atlanta thinks it will do so well with Cousins that they won’t have another opportunity to draft so high to backfill the position with someone of Penix’s quality. Or if the run on QBs allow them to trade him in a way that they wouldn’t have been able to before the run started.
Otherwise, I agree it’s weird to give up a few cost-controlled years. I don’t think I would have done it, but if I squint (a lot) I can see some logic.
Otherwise, I agree it’s weird to give up a few cost-controlled years. I don’t think I would have done it, but if I squint (a lot) I can see some logic.
Unless the answer is win at least one Super Bowl in the next 2-3 years it’s an awful idea. Maybe Cousins gets hurt and it all works out but it’s still an awful idea.
I’m high on Penix it has nothing to do with him. Having a top WR, Tackle or the #1 defensive player the draft is way more valuable than a backup QB.
I dont think this has been shared yet based on a quick search but this thread moves quickly. I laughed, hard:
View: https://twitter.com/andybehrens/status/1783888935032098957
"I'm hearing Spencer Rattler is very much in play for Atlanta with the 43rd overall pick tonight as the team plans for the post-Penix era."
View: https://twitter.com/andybehrens/status/1783888935032098957
"I'm hearing Spencer Rattler is very much in play for Atlanta with the 43rd overall pick tonight as the team plans for the post-Penix era."
But in their mind, they're not really drafting a "backup QB". They're drafting their QB of the future, a guy they think will be a stud. And maybe they look down the road the next year or two and don't see any QB prospect anywhere close to as good as Penix (in their minds, anyway), and think they'll do what GB did with Aaron Rodgers. Let Penix sit there a couple of years while a really good QB runs the team, and if Cousins does his job, they won't really be in a position to draft their next stud 2-3 years from now anyway. So at that point, let Cousins go and put Penix in there and away we go.
That's what they're thinking, I'm sure. It's defensible, I think.
Well played, I did a search for the tweet not the context so missed your post.
How do you message that to Cousins though? "Hey, we all knew we were never going to let you earn that $180 million contract -- you've always been a two year and cut and if you didn't know that now you do." They signed the guy to a 4 year deal. I mean, they are all adults and he knows it's a business. And has 100 million reasons not to feel bent out of shape, but that's a pretty fucked up thing to do for the guy you just committed 20 percent of your cap to.
I heard someone say they heard that the Falcons liked Penix but didn't bother reporting it because they assumed it meant in the 2nd and they had some teams that would take him in the mid to late 1st.
I don't think it's really all that defensible for these reasons:
1. You literally just made a 2-3 year big money commitment to a FA, who you've now alienated/undermined and set up a terrible lockeroom dynamic (very different from GB who had long established QBs)
2. It's the 8th pick not late 1st.
3. They took a 24 year old guy who started 5 years in college, this isn't a project player who needs to sit, he'll be 26-28 when he starts likely.
4. You have a bunch of players who need new deals in the 2nd and 3rd year of the Cousins deal, and you didn't use the 8th pick to replace any of them cheaper but also by overlapping the deals you are going to have no more than 1 cheap QB year to stack that money into.
It's just terrible roster/cap management.
This would be the pinnacle of “best player available”. Essentially, Atlanta had Penix so high on their board (first? second?) that they couldn’t possibly not take him at 8 even if it makes zero sense for their 2024 and 2025 roster construction.
Personally, it seems insane.
The more I think about this Penix pick, the more unbelievable it becomes. Blank has six kids and three step-kids -- do NONE of them care about football enough to take him aside and try to help the old man out?
Yeah, I mean, I sure wouldn't have done it if I was Atlanta. Then again, I wouldn't have hired Raheem Morris over Bill Freaking Belichick either. But I can at least see what they're thinking.
Really? If Cousins plays out his contract, they are going to have 1 year of control for Penix, he will be 28 (!!!!!), and it won't be nearly as cheap as the first 4 years. This is horrible roster and capital management. There is zero other way to frame it. Zero.
Atlanta likely thinking Cousins for two years then Penix for the next decade or so.
I don't think they're planning on waiting that long to put Penix into the starting lineup and jettison Cousins. Someone upthread pointed out that it's not terribly expensive (in terms of cap hit) to let Cousins go after two years. At that point, Penix will be 26 (he's about to turn 24 in a couple of weeks - May 8). That's a very different scenario than him waiting four years and Penix being 30 (even four years from now he won't be 30...he'll just be 27-28).
EDIT - When I hit reply, your post said he will be 30 (!!!!!) but now I see you've corrected it.
It's crazy that Brock Purdy is the same age as Penix and is about the enter his 3rd year in the league.
It’s objectively insane. Everyone just wants to over complicate stuff to find any thin reed upon which to hang an explanation. There’s a cap. Picks are scarce, cheap resources. They’re supposed to be contending now. The end.
And at the one position where only 1 guy can play per game.
You can have 4 top WR if you want and make it work. Multiple TEs. You can never have enough pass rushers or DBs. You can make the case for BPA for basically any position other than QB.
This one is crazypants.
Everyone’s gotta have a contrarian take, though. It signals deep thoughts.
This is what it’ll be with Maye and Daniels too. When Maye is in his third year he’ll be as old as Daniels is now.
It is true that he is not insanely expensive to cut him after 2 years. Looks like about $35,000,000. That's not insane, but hardly cheap. He'll get his guaranteed money, and they are taking $65,000,000 in cap hits the next two years.
I just don't understand how you do that though. You pay $100,000,000 in cap hits for a lame duck who knows he's a lame duck and in the process burn 40 percent of the control of a first round pick? Also, top 10 rookie contracts aren't exactly cheap -- they are relatively but it's still a 4/23 contract for Penix to back up a 2/100 player. (And probably upwards of $40 something million to buy the fifth year.)
You're also burning a minimum of 2 years of Penix's rookie contract. That 4 year window is when you can load up your team and really make a run...the Falcons pissed that away immediately.
EDIT: There's no defending the pick. Yes, there's a thought process behind what they did. The thought process is stupid. It doesn't compare to Aaron Rodgers or Jordan Love (both of whom were much younger when drafted and picked in the 20's, not the fucking 8th pick).
It's a moronic pick and they deserve all of the shit they're taking
Yeah like I said, I wouldn’t have done it but I can at least see what they’re thinking. They must have been completely in love with Penix. I wonder why, then, they signed Cousins to that huge deal if they were going to target Penix in the draft. If they were hedging their bets, that’s one heck of an expensive hedge.
Edit: but again.. we are talking about the same people that thought it would be better to hire Raheem Morris than Bill Belichick as their HC. So maybe they’re just plain old stupid.
The Pats used a late 2nd on Jimmy G - far different than the 8th pick - and there were legit questions whether they should have been using their capital on a piece that would help them win immediately, since they already had QB1 (and GOAT) in place. And that was the 62nd pick IIRC.
Can the Falcons trade Cousins now?
They’d have to eat the $50M signing bonus, but if the other team assumed the guarantees, I think that would be the extent of the dead money. And Cousins at 4/130 with only $40M guaranteed would be a valuable asset.
Is there a rule in the NFL, as there is in the NBA and MLB, that prevents a player from being traded so soon after he is signed as a free agent? (I’m aware Cousins has an NTC; assume that gets worked out somehow.)
They’d have to eat the $50M signing bonus, but if the other team assumed the guarantees, I think that would be the extent of the dead money. And Cousins at 4/130 with only $40M guaranteed would be a valuable asset.
Is there a rule in the NFL, as there is in the NBA and MLB, that prevents a player from being traded so soon after he is signed as a free agent? (I’m aware Cousins has an NTC; assume that gets worked out somehow.)
It would be interesting to see what the Raiders would be willing to give up for him right now. Adding Bowers and Cousins to that offense could make them a real threat in the AFC.
Lombardi went off about this today. Very funny pod. If Penix is awesome people will forget but the point stands that if they were going to take a QB they should not have paid Cousins.
Hypothetically yes if he waived his NTC and they found a way to clear like $20M in cap space to eat the bonus they could trade him.
The only way I can make any sense of it (certainly not to defend it) would be if they just absoultely fell in love with Penix during pre-draft process and after Cousins was signed.
At that point, maybe, they say "this kid is the real deal, we want him. And we'll figure out how to manage Cousins, but we aren't losing a franchise QB over a sunk cost"
Dunno. That's all I got
At that point, maybe, they say "this kid is the real deal, we want him. And we'll figure out how to manage Cousins, but we aren't losing a franchise QB over a sunk cost"
Dunno. That's all I got
Yeah, I saw Orlovsky on the Rich Eisen show and that appears to be it, entire thing made them seem like exactly the bumbling idiots you'd expect after the last 4-5 years.
Basically.....
After FA they turned to the draft (yes this is dumb, everyone but the HC should be deep into the draft months earlier)
Went to a private workout with him, were wowed by how he threw (yep, the old... look at those throws against air, what an arm approach you may remember from such picks as Zach Wilson and Jamarcus Russell)
Decided they needed to have him.
It's so funny. The bar for this not to be one of the worst picks in history is almost impossibly high - like your 100 million dollar man has a career ending injury or Penix is a top 10 QB the first year he gets playing time high. If Penix is simply pretty good, it's an unmitigated disaster.
You know, I am so rooting against the Falcons this year.
I mean, I have nothing against the players. Certainly enjoy watching Bijan and Drake London, and still hopeful for Pitts. Gotta admire Kirk Cousins' financial wizardry. By all accounts, Raheem Morris is a nice man. And I always kind of liked Arthur Blank -- he's a Stuyvesant HS graduate just like my eldest son, and if you find an NFL owner whose politics aren't bottom of the barrel, you need to respect it. And above all, nobody should have to endure the kind of humiliation they endured after 28-3 forever. [Except the Yankees, of course.]
But the Falcons turned their backs on the greatest coach of all time, to whom I'm forever loyal, so they're morons. And they did it in a way that was more dismissive and disrespectful than it should've been, so they're assholes. I want it proven beyond all shadow of a doubt that their owner sucks, their management sucks, and their coaching sucks. Last night was a terrific start.
I mean, I have nothing against the players. Certainly enjoy watching Bijan and Drake London, and still hopeful for Pitts. Gotta admire Kirk Cousins' financial wizardry. By all accounts, Raheem Morris is a nice man. And I always kind of liked Arthur Blank -- he's a Stuyvesant HS graduate just like my eldest son, and if you find an NFL owner whose politics aren't bottom of the barrel, you need to respect it. And above all, nobody should have to endure the kind of humiliation they endured after 28-3 forever. [Except the Yankees, of course.]
But the Falcons turned their backs on the greatest coach of all time, to whom I'm forever loyal, so they're morons. And they did it in a way that was more dismissive and disrespectful than it should've been, so they're assholes. I want it proven beyond all shadow of a doubt that their owner sucks, their management sucks, and their coaching sucks. Last night was a terrific start.
And then didn’t do any other visits with him in some sort of smoke screen to make sure they got him at a spot where he’d definitely be available? It’s so strange.
Falling in love with workouts is more justifiable with a player like Penix who excelled against elite competition. He would’ve gone in the first 3-4 picks absent the injury concerns.
The stupidity was giving Kirk Cousins that bag and not realizing that meant you were out on this year’s QB crop. I don’t know how you hand out a $180M contract and don’t realize that you’re making a major decision that closes doors that would otherwise be open.
I guess I'd defend them from all this criticism.
- In re being a stretch: I have had the uninformed opinion that Penix was way underrated. I don't know shit from shinola, but in my own personal book he's above Maye/Daniels. My opinion doesn't matter, but just to say while a minority opinion, I think it's perfectly reasonable to look at his production, his moxie, his great arm, and his leadership and say: it'll be unpopular now, but he'll be very good.
- In re "They had other/bigger needs:" Yes, and sometimes it isn't just best player available, but a QB is so key that if you truly think you have a special QB drop to you, then I think you have to take that player even if you already have a good QB.
- In re "he'll be so old:" I don't agree that age is as important as the amount of punishment an NFL player takes. To the degree he's not playing/just learning, his body isn't getting beat up for the next year or two and he'll have lots of career ahead of him.
- In re "only 1 QB plays at a time:" yes, but injuries happen ALL the time. Specifically in re Cousins, he'll be 36 (per previous point, not sure why that goes unremarked, but Penix potentially not starting until he's 26 is a huge deal), and had a serious injury last year. Having two QBs is not necessarily a waste of resources. Not saying it's ideal allocation of resources, but also a bit foolhardy to assume good health from a 36 yo QB coming off an achilles.
- In re "but they just signed Cousins!": basically what Pedrok said -- it's a conundrum if you sign a guy and then later fall in love with a rookie. Obviously not arguing it's ideal, but it's also about sunk costs. If you think Penix is the Dude, then even if you signed Cousins I think you have to go for the guy you think is terrific.
His age isn't just an issue because his career will be shorter, it's mostly an issue because he's had so much college experience it's hard to compare him to guys like Williams, McCarthy and Maye. What will Drake Maye look like going into his third year in the league? Because by then he'll be at the age Penix is now. How maxed out is Penix in contrast to the other prospects? What would a Drake Maye with 2 or 3 extra years in college throwing to the Rome Odunze equivalent behind a Washington level OL look like? Those are the issues, not that he'll reach 40 slightly before the other guys.
I really don't think this is true. If teams were concerned about injuries he'd fall out of the 1st.
I also don't think he really excelled against elite comp. He played 1 elite defense, he struggled horrifically, in every other game this year he was on by far the more talented team. he also played... oh 4 other seasons.
But generally, beyond the eval of Penix.....
No falling in love with a workout is fundamentally stupid, especially for a QB, because a workout has zero applicability to the NFL. Penix's success or failure in the NFL will have nothing to do with how he worked out and everythign to do with whether he can identify defenses pre and post snap, whether he can handle pressure, whether he can anticipate routes, etc. None of that is something you get from a workout.