Awesome that this comes out after BB is gone. I put 0.0001% faith in thisIt seems BB had Daniels as his preferred draft pick.
Awesome that this comes out after BB is gone. I put 0.0001% faith in thisIt seems BB had Daniels as his preferred draft pick.
Probably right. But if true it's interesting. He passed over or didn't move up for the dual threat guys (Jackson, Fields) recently. I'm going to take it as misdirection to get Maye to the PatsAwesome that this comes out after BB is gone. I put 0.0001% faith in this
from the writeup seems like an easy way to get in two bits of information from the combine:The Athletics AGAIN has the Patriots trading back to 8 and taking Alt. I just don't see it at all.
2024 NFL Mock Draft: Trades shake up Round 1; QBs, WRs dominate early - The Athletic
And I have no doubt he'll "refine" his mocks as we get closer and then say "I got 29 of the picks correct".from the writeup seems like an easy way to get in two bits of information from the combine:
1. The exec who said Wolf wants to stockpile picks
2. Sneak in the idea that maybe Fields' market is a little soft and an early 3rd might be enough.
This far out you're going to see a lot of mocks playing around with different scenarios based on rumors/leaks/negotiating tactics.
I doubt the Patriots trade down, but if one of the top 3 teams did it's going to be the Patriots as the odds that you don't like the 3rd QB left is higher than not liking any QB other than Caleb.
Well he won't because nobody generally gets anywhere near that many exact hits, closest over a 3 year period is I think Kiper? and that was like 10-12 average.And I have no doubt he'll "refine" his mocks as we get closer and then say "I got 29 of the picks correct".
2. Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
Vote distribution: Daniels 5, Maye 1
Five of six execs had Daniels heading to Washington in this slot. One of the five initially had Maye, then changed to Daniels a few days later.
“I think people struggle with Maye’s mechanics,” this exec said.
The one holdout for Maye in this slot said he heard Commanders general manager Adam Peters was “really into” Maye. The fit could be appealing. Maye and incumbent Commanders starter Sam Howell were teammates at North Carolina. Howell could open the 2024 season as the starter if the Commanders wanted to give Maye time to assimilate.
Another exec left open the possibility that Michigan’s McCarthy could compete with Daniels and Maye for this slot.
“If he throws well,” this exec said of McCarthy, “he is competing for the No. 2 spot. I don’t see him overtaking them, though.”
The Athletic’s Randy Mueller predicted months ago that McCarthy could rise into the top five as teams and specifically coaches learned more about him, before it was known whether McCarthy would enter the draft. Mueller, a three-time GM and one-time NFL Executive of the Year, also thinks analysts are overrating Maye based on prototypical size, and that some teams will not have Maye rated as highly.
“Could you say McCarthy could go in the top five? Yes,” the former GM said
3. New England Patriots: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
Vote distribution: Maye 5, Daniels 1
Every exec had the Patriots selecting a quarterback in the first round. Maye was the choice more by default than because anyone thought New England was particularly high on him.
“I think they would probably rather have Jayden Daniels, but I’ll put Maye in there,” one exec said.
One GM whose team already has a franchise quarterback thought McCarthy would be “a huge reach” in this spot, but he conceded New England could make a bold selection with Eliot Wolf running the draft room.
“I think they go quarterback,” this GM said. “Do they take a shot at J.J.? Eliot won’t be afraid to if he believes in the player. Just look at what his dad has done.”
Ron Wolf famously acquired Brett Favre from the Atlanta Falcons three decades ago.
“Ron Wolf’s son is going to go for the biggest, fastest, most talented athlete in most cases,” a different exec said.
I think that's the case.Anybody know why most of the mock drafts had the Pats with two 6th rounders (usually 182 and 190 but they moved around a little, I guess because of compensatory awards?) and 8 total picks, but it seems that they actually only have seven picks and one 6th rounder? Were they assumed to get a compensatory pick that didn't get awarded?
This seems to be the "new" list on PFN.
Round 1: Pick 3
Round 2: Pick 34
Round 3: Pick 68
Round 4: Pick 103
Round 5: Pick 135
Round 6: Pick 179
Round 7: Pick 228
I'd definitely be ok with this type of outcome. But is Paul at 44 and Legette at 68 realistic? Feels like both will go earlier.Tried to do something "realistic" and assumed that I like McCarthy, which I'm not sure I do. But I got bored with always taking whatever QB was left at 3. Not sure though if it's actually realistic for McCarthy to slip past Denver at 12. Anyway, dropping back I got some extra 2024 and 2025 picks, which I used to come back up for Powers-Johnson and Wilson. Ended up in 2025 with one pick in each round, filling in the 6th they are currently missing with the Jax 6th, but having traded away both extra 7th rounders that they currently have.
I guess if you really want to settle for McCarthy though, you are probably rolling the dice dropping as far back as 13? Also, the Pats would have to spend most of their cap space on D in FA to do something like this in the draft.
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I'm not sure. In the PFN model, almost always. But perhaps that model isn't realistic. Do you think Paul will go ahead of Morgan now? PFN has him ranked around 60 even though he usually goes before 50 when their model runs.I'd definitely be ok with this type of outcome. But is Paul at 44 and Legette at 68 realistic? Feels like both will go earlier.
Both could be there, it's within their ranges. Paul could go anywhere from 30-55 and not be a surprise.I'd definitely be ok with this type of outcome. But is Paul at 44 and Legette at 68 realistic? Feels like both will go earlier.
I would say that nobody is allowed to trade out of #3 without saying who the starting QB will be on September 10th.NEW RULE: No one is allowed to trade out of #3 without securing a future 1st round pick as part - PART - of the compensation. Carry on.
Julian Edelman.I would say that nobody is allowed to trade out of #3 without saying who the starting QB will be on September 10th.
Completely anecdotal but it feels like Herbert had a similar pre-draft experience. I'm consoling myself that he turned out pretty good.I’m annoyed that I’m convinced Maye stinks and I’m convinced the Patriots will end up with him.
Hopefully I go 1 for 2.
I find it interesting that almost all the "Maye is bad" smoke is coming from the guys who are just getting into the draft now, and the people who do year round work all like Maye a ton (almost all more than Daniels).Completely anecdotal but it feels like Herbert had a similar pre-draft experience. I'm consoling myself that he turned out pretty good.
Yep. I think it's part of the Daniels hype as well.I find it interesting that almost all the "Maye is bad" smoke is coming from the guys who are just getting into the draft now, and the people who do year round work all like Maye a ton (almost all more than Daniels).
If you trade down from 3 you gotta pick up a future #1. Because that #1 is what it would cost to trade up from #15 next season to get a QB of the future.I did this draft with the assumptions that the Pats have signed Jacoby Brisset or traded for Justin Fields, signed Tyron Smith, and resigned Onwenyu. Traded down twice for extra picks this year plus two extra seconds in 2025. Focused on restocking the WR, OL and CB ranks. Theo Johnson and Guerendo are physical freaks, they are not going to last that long in the draft.
9.
Malik NabersWR LSU
34.
Jordan MorganOT Arizona
50.
Cooper BeebeOG Kansas State
68.
Max MeltonCB Rutgers
97.
Jalen McMillanWR Washington
121.
Khyree JacksonCB Oregon
136.
Theo JohnsonTE Penn State
179.
Isaac GuerendoRB Louisville
192.
Caedan WallaceOT Penn State
231.
Luke ReimerLB Nebraska
2025 ATL 2nd
2025 CAR 2nd
Guerendo is a undrafted quality RB prospect who is a great athlete. Being a freaky athlete can’t compensate for no actual vision behind the LOS.I did this draft with the assumptions that the Pats have signed Jacoby Brisset or traded for Justin Fields, signed Tyron Smith, and resigned Onwenyu. Traded down twice for extra picks this year plus two extra seconds in 2025. Focused on restocking the WR, OL and CB ranks. Theo Johnson and Guerendo are physical freaks, they are not going to last that long in the draft.
9.
Malik NabersWR LSU
34.
Jordan MorganOT Arizona
50.
Cooper BeebeOG Kansas State
68.
Max MeltonCB Rutgers
97.
Jalen McMillanWR Washington
121.
Khyree JacksonCB Oregon
136.
Theo JohnsonTE Penn State
179.
Isaac GuerendoRB Louisville
192.
Caedan WallaceOT Penn State
231.
Luke ReimerLB Nebraska
2025 ATL 2nd
2025 CAR 2nd
I'll be honest I hate it.I did this draft with the assumptions that the Pats have signed Jacoby Brisset or traded for Justin Fields, signed Tyron Smith, and resigned Onwenyu. Traded down twice for extra picks this year plus two extra seconds in 2025. Focused on restocking the WR, OL and CB ranks. Theo Johnson and Guerendo are physical freaks, they are not going to last that long in the draft.
9.
Malik NabersWR LSU
34.
Jordan MorganOT Arizona
50.
Cooper BeebeOG Kansas State
68.
Max MeltonCB Rutgers
97.
Jalen McMillanWR Washington
121.
Khyree JacksonCB Oregon
136.
Theo JohnsonTE Penn State
179.
Isaac GuerendoRB Louisville
192.
Caedan WallaceOT Penn State
231.
Luke ReimerLB Nebraska
2025 ATL 2nd
2025 CAR 2nd
90 wouldn’t be enough in real life IMODropped back to 4 for 3 and 90. Then dropped from 34 for Denver's 1st next year plus something around 60. (Highest OT left at that time was Paul.) Used 68 and that Denver pick that was around 60, plus a 7th next year to move up for Paul. Used another of of next year's 7ths to move up a little for Laube, and then used 180 and 231 to move up for Wiley who doesn't usually drop this late. Also burned a 5th next year somewhere along the way, but can't remember where. So left with two 1sts and one 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 7th for next year.
I'm not sure if Jackson could actually play in Pats D so perhaps should have taken OT Fisher there as well.
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ARI would have no interest in real life so it doesn't really matter90 wouldn’t be enough in real life IMO
Yeah that's one thing that the tools seem to usually get right. I've tried to mock trade with Arizona multiple times and they decline everything.ARI would have no interest in real life so it doesn't really matter
It's definitely going to be interesting to see how the Pats handle OT and WR in the draft. The way I've been doing these mocks is Daniels/Maye at #3, then best OT (Suamataia/Morgan, sometimes Guyton) in R2 and best WR in R3 (Legette, R. Wilson, Pearsall). Occasionally, one of the higher ranked WR's (Coleman, A. Mitchell, McConkey) will drop in R2 so I'll switch and go WR in R2 and OT (Rosengarten, Amegadjie) in R3.In all the iterations I run I'm struggling to address both OT and WR without trading back in R1 and picking McCarthy instead of Daniels and picking up an extra R2 pick. At least on PFN, all the top OT and WR talent is gone by the end of R2 (in most cases). It's looking like a good year to be covered there and drafting for DL or DB. Some of those guys seem to drop.
I take him the majority of the time in the 6th roundBased on all of the iterations I have done, I’m 70% confident that Gabe Hall, DT is going to be a New England Patriot.
If the Pats are punting on a franchise QB and trading the pick to a team that takes Maye/Daniels, chances are the Pats will be drafting higher than whatever that team is so presumably their own pick (probably top 5) is likely the one they’d use for whatever prospect happens to have a Daniels-esque riseIf they trade down from 3, they absolutely have to get a # 1 from a team that has a reasonable chance of picking in the top 5 next year. I know it’s hard to predict but I would circle the NYG as a qb needy team who might struggle next year.
If I don’t have a top flight QB to watch and root for on the Pats next year, then I absolutely need a team to root against like crazy for the year with the hope that their pick may be the one that delivers us our qb the following year.
This is how the front office should be thinking about this draft (if the trades are there). If Nix doesn’t develop the way you hope, you have plenty of currency to move up in 2025 or in 2026, and that rookie QB, at that point, would have young, but experienced, receivers and an experienced o-line coming in Day 1.
NMDD updated:Okay, Decided to try out a hypo.
This is based on a decision to trade down with MIN (11,23, future 1st) and Wolf being high on Fields long-term and flipping a 5th and conditional future pick for him:
PFN:
The other sites haven't updated with the trade yet.
This is... honestly really good if you believe in Fields. The problem with basically every tradedown is always where does the QB come from. I have no faith in anyone outside the top 3 or MAYBE 4. Fields... I know what his floor is, and it's not bad, but unless the coaching staff thinks they can fix him... I still draft Maye or Daniels.