With the announcement Arizona did not choose Lou Anarumo for its coaching vacancy, the Bengals will return the head coach and all three coordinators for the fifth straight year. That kind of continuity is pretty tough to achieve in today's NFL, as only the Chiefs have also had the same structure in place in that time period. Given Anarumo, OC Brian Callahan and QB coach Dan Pitcher all interviewed for promotions this cycle, there's a good chance more than one of them is gone next year. They're always going to be competitive as long as Burrow is there, but there's a lot of pressure to win it all this year given how close they've been, the stars still being under contract for cheap and the potential staff/personnel turnover going forward. Thankfully, they'll be running almost the same team back (fair or not, Higgins isn't getting traded for anything short of a Ricky Williams package) and that combined with the coaching continuity create a real opportunity to bring the first Lombardi to Cincinnati.
Key Free Agents
- Jessie Bates will be the biggest loss, as the star safety has been destined to eventually hit free agency since they couldn't come to terms before the 2021 season. They tried again last offseason after franchising him but talks predictably went nowhere. Thankfully, they've been preparing for it as they used a first-round pick on Dax Hill last year. Hill was shuffled around as a rookie and played sparingly on defense, but he checked almost all the measurables and production boxes as a prospect and should be a really good player.
- Fellow safety Vonn Bell is also up for free agency. He played his last contract on a 3/18 deal, and I could see something similar although two years would be ideal. He's a leader on defense who can still play and will be needed back with the loss of Bates.
- LB Germaine Pratt took a huge step forward this year and will hit the market at 26. Given the extensions coming up (including possibly fellow LB Logan Wilson), the replacements in house and it not being a premium position, I don't see the Bengals paying market rate here.
- Eli Apple talks a lot of shit and takes a lot of it too, but he's given them solid CB2 play for two years. Given top corner Chidobe Awuzie is coming off a torn ACL and you can never have enough corners, I'd like to see him brought back on another one-year deal. Cam Taylor-Britt will certainly be starting at one spot, so Apple can start if Awuzie needs to be brought along slowly or be quality depth.
- TE Hayden Hurst signed a one-year, prove it deal last year and pretty much proved he's JAG. His energy was definitely a positive, but he only averaged 8 YPC (and it wasn't because he scored a bunch of short TDs) and it's a number that's gone down every year while he'll be 30 by Week 1. It's a tough position for rookie impact, but they need to find one in the draft and try to shoot higher for 2023 production.
Cut Candidates
- Joe Mixon certainly checks the boxes for this one. He's going to be 27 in July with almost 1500 carries and saw his efficiency drop last year despite the league's rise overall. He's a liability in pass protection and was outsnapped by backup Samaje Perine in the AFCCG. I'd imagine they'll wait and see if they find a solution in the draft, but ideally they'll move on.
- RT La'el Collins was still able to move people in the run game and held up against bigger rushers, but he was toast against speed and I can't see that getting any better. He'll be 30 in July, is coming off a torn ACL suffered late in the year and has back problems. They can't count on him to be a quality starter, and this is a spot they'll need to find a replacement in FA or the draft as backup Hakeem Adeniji can't be a starter either for a SB contender.
The Schedule
For a first-place schedule in the 17-game era, it's not bad at all. They have to play at KC (opening night?) and get the Bills at home, but their crossover game is against the Vikings who are a giant regression candidate while they also get the unimposing AFC South and NFC West. They'll have to play better in the division if they want a chance as the 1-seed, as they only went 3-3 last year and every other team should be competitive at least. The AFC North has also never been won by the same team three years in a row and has only even been won three out of four years by the same team twice despite the Browns never being in contention.
While they came closer last year than they did this year, last offseason was spent trying to figure out if they could still be really good when fewer things (Chase go balls, schedule, injuries) went their way. The answer was a resounding yes, and now they've taken the step into title or bust territory. While it's a scary prospect as a fan, it's also no place you'd rather be. This is as excited as I'll be for a season since at least 2015, when they probably had the best roster in the league before an untimely Dalton injury when he was playing at an MVP level and some other stuff ruined the season. It's good they generally stay out of trouble with the cap, but this is the year they need to be all-in.
Key Free Agents
- Jessie Bates will be the biggest loss, as the star safety has been destined to eventually hit free agency since they couldn't come to terms before the 2021 season. They tried again last offseason after franchising him but talks predictably went nowhere. Thankfully, they've been preparing for it as they used a first-round pick on Dax Hill last year. Hill was shuffled around as a rookie and played sparingly on defense, but he checked almost all the measurables and production boxes as a prospect and should be a really good player.
- Fellow safety Vonn Bell is also up for free agency. He played his last contract on a 3/18 deal, and I could see something similar although two years would be ideal. He's a leader on defense who can still play and will be needed back with the loss of Bates.
- LB Germaine Pratt took a huge step forward this year and will hit the market at 26. Given the extensions coming up (including possibly fellow LB Logan Wilson), the replacements in house and it not being a premium position, I don't see the Bengals paying market rate here.
- Eli Apple talks a lot of shit and takes a lot of it too, but he's given them solid CB2 play for two years. Given top corner Chidobe Awuzie is coming off a torn ACL and you can never have enough corners, I'd like to see him brought back on another one-year deal. Cam Taylor-Britt will certainly be starting at one spot, so Apple can start if Awuzie needs to be brought along slowly or be quality depth.
- TE Hayden Hurst signed a one-year, prove it deal last year and pretty much proved he's JAG. His energy was definitely a positive, but he only averaged 8 YPC (and it wasn't because he scored a bunch of short TDs) and it's a number that's gone down every year while he'll be 30 by Week 1. It's a tough position for rookie impact, but they need to find one in the draft and try to shoot higher for 2023 production.
Cut Candidates
- Joe Mixon certainly checks the boxes for this one. He's going to be 27 in July with almost 1500 carries and saw his efficiency drop last year despite the league's rise overall. He's a liability in pass protection and was outsnapped by backup Samaje Perine in the AFCCG. I'd imagine they'll wait and see if they find a solution in the draft, but ideally they'll move on.
- RT La'el Collins was still able to move people in the run game and held up against bigger rushers, but he was toast against speed and I can't see that getting any better. He'll be 30 in July, is coming off a torn ACL suffered late in the year and has back problems. They can't count on him to be a quality starter, and this is a spot they'll need to find a replacement in FA or the draft as backup Hakeem Adeniji can't be a starter either for a SB contender.
The Schedule
For a first-place schedule in the 17-game era, it's not bad at all. They have to play at KC (opening night?) and get the Bills at home, but their crossover game is against the Vikings who are a giant regression candidate while they also get the unimposing AFC South and NFC West. They'll have to play better in the division if they want a chance as the 1-seed, as they only went 3-3 last year and every other team should be competitive at least. The AFC North has also never been won by the same team three years in a row and has only even been won three out of four years by the same team twice despite the Browns never being in contention.
While they came closer last year than they did this year, last offseason was spent trying to figure out if they could still be really good when fewer things (Chase go balls, schedule, injuries) went their way. The answer was a resounding yes, and now they've taken the step into title or bust territory. While it's a scary prospect as a fan, it's also no place you'd rather be. This is as excited as I'll be for a season since at least 2015, when they probably had the best roster in the league before an untimely Dalton injury when he was playing at an MVP level and some other stuff ruined the season. It's good they generally stay out of trouble with the cap, but this is the year they need to be all-in.
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