2023-24 EPL Survivor Pool

[candylandriots]

Hi Everyone

It's about that time again. I realized the season starts in only just over a week, so ought to get this rolling.

We've gone with the double-elimination version the last couple years, but I really like the idea of doing a point limit game. Give a maximum number of points that can be lost, and then failing to win counts as 3 points lost for an outright loss, and I guess 1 point penalty for a draw (seems more reasonable than 2 to me). The question then is where to set the limit on point accumulation before elimination. It seems like 10 is a good number. Anyone have any thoughts?

I think we'll do the same entry fee as before. Would be great to have some of the World Cup newbies join as well. I think we had around 40 people last year, so @Morgan's Magic Snowplow won close to $800.

For the new players, the game is to select teams that don't lose (and maybe now not draw) among the games each week in the EPL. You may pick each team only 2x per season, however. It's been winner take all. It's done by email to survivetheepl@gmail.com, with picks due 1 hour before the first kickoff of each week.

Please offer some feedback on the proposed new format. I'm happy to keep it at two losses over the season though if that's what people prefer.

 

[candylandriots]

I just sent out an email to everyone that's been involved and created a survey to get some feedback on this year's rules.

https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/TYMLW3S

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Thanks for running this again Jeff! I’m in, whatever the format.

 

[OCST]

3 for a loss and 1 for a draw seems about right.

10 seems forgiving though.

I'd say either 7 or 5.

 

[swiftaw]

5 would be less than the double elimination we did last year. 7 is probably a good number though.

 

[Rusty Gate]

I will be in whatever the format. To state the obvious, the more points until elimination, the longer the season will last. So 9 or 10 points would likely result in a season that lasted a little longer than last year, which I think is what we're aiming for.

 

[Warning Track Speed]

I too am in regardless of format, although I prefer last year's format to the current proposal. Thanks to Mr. Riots for stepping up again. Don't everyone take Brighton in week 1!

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I think you guys are underestimating the number of draws.

I won in week 24 last year having picked up only one loss but I’d guess something like 6-8 draws.

IMO, if we do the points system it needs to be at least 10, but 12 might be better.

 

[litigator02]

I’m happy to give one of you my $40, regardless of the rules.

 

[candylandriots]

I think you guys are underestimating the number of draws.

I won in week 24 last year having picked up only one loss but I’d guess something like 6-8 draws.

IMO, if we do the points system it needs to be at least 10, but 12 might be better.

This was definitely my thinking with 10 points. I don’t think that I kept track of that last year (I double check when I get home in a little bit) but my memory was it seemed like there were lots of games where a popular pick was saved by a late goal, to say nothing of the games where the draw was baked in earlier in the game.

Please put your votes in on the survey if you haven’t already. And please invite someone new to join. And tag someone like Luton’s biggest fan @canderson who decided to start watching this year post-WC. I’d love to get up to 50 players.

 

[coremiller]

I don't like penalizing draws. It's hard enough already to avoid losing twice (or even three times) over a 38-game season.

 

[OCST]

I like the idea of an odd number. I’m coming around that it should be bigger because yes I do remember the draws. 11 sounds good.

 

[OCST]

And I’m in regardless

 

[CouchsideSteve]

I’d love to join this year if there’s room!

 

[67YAZ]

Can I hop in?

 

[candylandriots]

I’d love to join this year if there’s room!

Can I hop in?

Everyone can join! Just send an email to survivetheepl@gmail.com

I think we’ll finalize the rules on Monday, along with the entry fee. The entry fee goes to a different email address, however.

Please feel free to invite others too. I just need their email addresses sent to that gmail account and they’re good to go.

Also, to anyone on the list that wants off, please just send me a message there too and I will remove you.

 

[CPT Neuron]

I'm in!

 

[DJnVa]

I'm in no matter what, and sent it out to friend who is interested.

 

[candylandriots]

I've gotten back 15 votes, but I didn't read Survey Monkey's fine print before setting up the survey though, which apparently told me I only get back the results of 10 surveys! I thought about paying to get the results of this one, but it would cost a minimum of €39 to get the answers from the other 5 surveys through a monthly subscription, so screw that.

Here's the summary based on the answers these monkeys *would* tell me.
60% in favor of points-based
Draw counts as 1 point
60% chose 10 points to elimination, 20% for 8, 10% each for 6 and 12 points
80% favor of $20 entry fee
80% in favor of the 70/20/10 split for winners

We conveniently had 6 players left until the end, when 5 of you selected Wolves and 1 chose Brentford. So I was able to go back and score those 6 players through the first 24 weeks of the season, where it ended. And here is where we were then (at the end of week 24).

Andrew S. - 9
Corey M. - 10
Derek S. - 10
John H. - 12
Rob G. - 9
Samuel H. - 10
Will W. - 9

Had we been playing the points system with 10 points, Andrew, Rob and Will would have still been alive after week 24. I think that we are in general agreement that we'd like the game to continue through most of the season, right? From that point of view, 11, 12 or maybe even 13 points seem like probably the right number to me. It surely wasn't getting any easier after week 24.

Given the information that I've got, I think that I'd go with a 12 point system right now, but I'm going to leave the floor open for anyone to make a persuasive argument against trying the new system or for fewer or more points than 12. Given the landslide in favor of keeping the entry fee at $20 and splitting the pot for the top three, we'll go with the votes there.

 

[Zososoxfan]

I've gotten back 15 votes, but I didn't read Survey Monkey's fine print before setting up the survey though, which apparently told me I only get back the results of 10 surveys! I thought about paying to get the results of this one, but it would cost a minimum of €39 to get the answers from the other 5 surveys through a monthly subscription, so screw that.

Here's the summary based on the answers these monkeys *would* tell me.
60% in favor of points-based
Draw counts as 1 point
60% chose 10 points to elimination, 20% for 8, 10% each for 6 and 12 points
80% favor of $20 entry fee
80% in favor of the 70/20/10 split for winners

We conveniently had 6 players left until the end, when 5 of you selected Wolves and 1 chose Brentford. So I was able to go back and score those 6 players through the first 24 weeks of the season, where it ended. And here is where we were then (at the end of week 24).

Andrew S. - 9
Corey M. - 10
Derek S. - 10
John H. - 12
Rob G. - 9
Samuel H. - 10
Will W. - 9

Had we been playing the points system with 10 points, Andrew, Rob and Will would have still been alive after week 24. I think that we are in general agreement that we'd like the game to continue through most of the season, right? From that point of view, 11, 12 or maybe even 13 points seem like probably the right number to me. It surely wasn't getting any easier after week 24.

Given the information that I've got, I think that I'd go with a 12 point system right now, but I'm going to leave the floor open for anyone to make a persuasive argument against trying the new system or for fewer or more points than 12. Given the landslide in favor of keeping the entry fee at $20 and splitting the pot for the top three, we'll go with the votes there.

Thank you so much again for organizing, and I'm in regardless. I agree that 10 points is too few, and 12 seems about right. Only one way to find out!

 

[CPT Neuron]

Thanks for the leg work on this, @candylandriots - I'm 100% behind points, and 11, 12, or 13 seems perfect. I'll defer to the masses on the set point, and I'm in regardless.

 

[nayrbrey]

I’m good with the 12 points and all the other majority positions.

 

[candylandriots]

I think that I've settled on the rules. Please have a look at them. New/changed rules are highlighted in red. If I've made some kind of mistake or anything, please let me know so I can update the rules accordingly. Payment is to jkempa@yahoo.com via PayPal -- please use "friends and family" and do not mention the pool or gambling. I will have a Venmo option in a few hours and if neither of those work, you can also do Zelle.

1. Each game week you must pick one team you think most likely to win their match.
2. You may pick each team in the league up to two times.
3. If the team you selected in a given week loses their match, you receive a penalty of three points. If the team you selected draws their match, you have a one point penalty. A win is the ideal outcome, and you receive zero for that game week.
4. Entry fee is $20. Please send in USD to jkempa@yahoo.com via PayPal. Please use "friends and family" and do not make reference to the pool or to gambling. Please, please. If you don't have PayPal, contact me
5. Entries must be sent to survivetheepl@gmail.com one hour before the first kickoff of the week.
6. Understand that games may be postponed for a variety of reasons. Most of them are announced well in advance, but I'll try to keep an updated list of which games are available during a given week.
7. If a game is postponed AFTER the kickoff of the first game of the week (weather, Covid, protests, who knows anymore), you will have the option of selecting another game that will be played that week, or doubling up the following week.
8. If there is a very limited number of games one week (say, a covid outbreak among many teams), I may combine games from multiple game weeks at my discretion.
9. If for some reason, due to scheduling and prior team selection, you have NO possible choices, you survive to the next week, but will be required to make two picks.
10. If you miss making an entry one hour before the first kickoff, or you make an illegal pick, you will receive a team selected by a random number generator.
11. The maximum number of penalty points you may accumulate and remain in the game is 12. If you reach or exceed 13 points, you are eliminated.
12. The last player standing will win the competition.
13. If more than one player is eliminated in the same week or if players complete the season without being eliminated, the tiebreakers will be assessed as follows: a) lowest overall score, b) fewest losses, c) tie declared.
14. The pool will be awarded 70% to the winner, 20% to second place and 10% to third.
15. In the case of unforeseen events not covered by the rules, I'll consult with eliminated players for their input on how to handle any controversy. However, my decision will be final.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Payment sent. Thanks for doing this again Jeff!

 

[pedro1918]

In. Thanks Jeff.

And congrats to whoever just won my money!

 

[Marceline]

I've gotten back 15 votes, but I didn't read Survey Monkey's fine print before setting up the survey though, which apparently told me I only get back the results of 10 surveys! I thought about paying to get the results of this one, but it would cost a minimum of €39 to get the answers from the other 5 surveys through a monthly subscription, so screw that.

Here's the summary based on the answers these monkeys *would* tell me.
60% in favor of points-based
Draw counts as 1 point
60% chose 10 points to elimination, 20% for 8, 10% each for 6 and 12 points
80% favor of $20 entry fee
80% in favor of the 70/20/10 split for winners

We conveniently had 6 players left until the end, when 5 of you selected Wolves and 1 chose Brentford. So I was able to go back and score those 6 players through the first 24 weeks of the season, where it ended. And here is where we were then (at the end of week 24).

Andrew S. - 9
Corey M. - 10
Derek S. - 10
John H. - 12
Rob G. - 9
Samuel H. - 10
Will W. - 9

Had we been playing the points system with 10 points, Andrew, Rob and Will would have still been alive after week 24. I think that we are in general agreement that we'd like the game to continue through most of the season, right? From that point of view, 11, 12 or maybe even 13 points seem like probably the right number to me. It surely wasn't getting any easier after week 24.

Given the information that I've got, I think that I'd go with a 12 point system right now, but I'm going to leave the floor open for anyone to make a persuasive argument against trying the new system or for fewer or more points than 12. Given the landslide in favor of keeping the entry fee at $20 and splitting the pot for the top three, we'll go with the votes there.

I missed this while the actual survey was going on, but I'll just mention (in case any other proposed rule changes ever come up) that you can do this sort of thing in Google Forms for free.

 

[OCST]

Not that you need more unsolicited suggestions but here’s another- you’re being kind and setting yourself up for a lot of work by doing a random generation if someone misses a pick. Under this set of rules a -1 for a missed pick is more than fair.

/frequent pick-misser

 

[swiftaw]

Not that you need more unsolicited suggestions but here’s another- you’re being kind and setting yourself up for a lot of work by doing a random generation if someone misses a pick. Under this set of rules a -1 for a missed pick is more than fair.

/frequent pick-misser

I'd actually suggest, for the first missed pick, you get allocated the highest placed league team that you haven't exhausted, for the second missed pick you lose a point (-1) for the third missed pick you lose 2 points (-2) and so on.

 

[DJnVa]

Yo--in and money sent.

 

[candylandriots]

Just saw your message @coremiller , jerk

 

[DJnVa]

Hey @candylandriots you get my email re: Steve C?

 

[candylandriots]

Hey @candylandriots you get my email re: Steve C?

Yes - sorry all good!

 

[morea1ms]

Happened to stumble across this looking for an EPL survivor league this morning. I submitted my payment and pick and am in. Looking forward to it!

 

[swiftaw]

Are we doing a WhatsApp group for banter?

 

[candylandriots]

Are we doing a WhatsApp group for banter?

That is the plan. I'll send out an email with my number, and anyone that wants in for banter should send me a WhatsApp message and I'll add you.

 

[SocrManiac]

Not really unusual. Netherlands, Italy, Japan… There are other traditions and inspirations to draw from.

 

[candylandriots]

Sorry that I haven’t been able to send the picks out for the remaining people this week. I think everyone knows that the public ridicule was meant in jest, but I haven’t been able to send out the picks to the stragglers. My apologies. I should be able to have the picks, along with the (somewhat painful for many) results after the games tonight.

 

[67YAZ]

That Wolves match was a real kick in the nuts.

 

[CPT Neuron]

Spurs have done me dirty twice now - first the junk LFC match and now a loss to bounce me. Thanks Spurs....dinks

 

[swiftaw]

I had week 13 circled on the schedule from the beginning as a possible brutal week, and it seems that was the case. Could've been a lot worse if West Ham didn't stage that comeback.

 

[DJnVa]

Spurs have done me dirty twice now - first the junk LFC match and now a loss to bounce me. Thanks Spurs....dinks

I mean, you picked them in a pick 'em game with like 37 regulars out of the lineup...

 

[candylandriots]

For anyone following along that isn't in the pool. The co-winners (money-wise) are @pedro1918 and a 9-year old kid named Stefan from Toronto. @coremiller takes 3rd place honors. Stefan and @pedro1918 are going to duke it out for bragging rights. Total pool was $940, with 45% going to each of the two winners and 10% to 3rd.

Looks like we'll be back with even more players next year, so anyone who was on the fence for this season, I hope you'll join next year. I think that the new format was a success - and definitely led to more and longer engagement with the pool.

 

[candylandriots]

Sorry for the anti-climatic ending: Stefan S. won the bragging rights, following the Newcastle draw the other night. I apologize that I didn't get to send that out so you could follow the end of the competition. But we've al been beaten by a 9-year old, so congrats to everyone here for that.

If you have any thoughts or suggestions for improving the rules for next season, please do let me know. It sound like we will have more players as well.

Thanks to everyone for participating!

 

[nayrbrey]

Thanks for running this! And congrats to Stefan.

 

[DJnVa]

Looking forward to next season.

Let's do Bundesliga too! lol

 

[Zososoxfan]

Thanks so much for running this @candylandriots , super fun!

The only tweak I'd propose at this time is adding a couple of points to the elimination number (say 15 instead of 13), so we get the peloton to week 30 or so instead of week 20-25 like this season. I don't feel strongly about that though, so if nothing changed I'd be happy too! Will definitely be inviting the pub league mates next season if that's appropriate.

 

[candylandriots]

Looking forward to next season.

Let's do Bundesliga too! lol

I would totally be up for that. I'm not sure how much interest we'd have, though. Show of hands?

 

[candylandriots]

Thanks so much for running this @candylandriots , super fun!

The only tweak I'd propose at this time is adding a couple of points to the elimination number (say 15 instead of 13), so we get the peloton to week 30 or so instead of week 20-25 like this season. I don't feel strongly about that though, so if nothing changed I'd be happy too! Will definitely be inviting the pub league mates next season if that's appropriate.

Yeah, I think that if today was the day to set the rules for the new season, I'd bump to 15. My only hesitation is if we get too many more players, whetether that will be too many. Was this a normal year for upsets? I'm not sure, but I have to imagine that the picks get sooo much harder after week 30 and you're down to picking teams like Luton Town and Burnley and the like.

 

[Zososoxfan]

Yeah, I think that if today was the day to set the rules for the new season, I'd bump to 15. My only hesitation is if we get too many more players, whetether that will be too many. Was this a normal year for upsets? I'm not sure, but I have to imagine that the picks get sooo much harder after week 30 and you're down to picking teams like Luton Town and Burnley and the like.

That's a good point. We had 2 finalists this year that basically smoked the pack. If we get 3, 4, 5x the players, you can probably extrapolate that so the title chasers pack grows a bit. Of course, most of our newcomers will join us in the pit of misery of early exits, or if they're lucky Chelsea-ville (i.e., midtable with no chance for European football...er, glory).