2023-24 Celtics

[Ed Hillel]

The C's have been letting Tatum go end-of-game iso since Brad Stevens was in charge. I too believe Mazzulla should try something different, but he's not doing anything that Brad and Ime didn't do as well.

I find this answer by Joe disturbing. Does Tatum need coddling or something that we don’t see? He seems like a confident and realistic young man, so when I see his coach saying something this markedly bullshit, it makes me wonder:
View: https://twitter.com/noadalzellnba/status/1773536456142692471?s=46&t=11SXTvIYT-tl8b6e7iEUVQ

It was about as bad a look as you could possibly get there. Meanwhile, Jaylen was 10 feet from Tatum uncovered, because the D collapsed on Tatum as they knew there was no consequence to them doing so.

 

[benhogan]

I mean, is he rusty or has he taken the foot of the pedal?

definitely more of the latter.

It's not arbitrary since we're talking about his recent play. In the last 11 games, he has missed 6 games and only played his normal rotational minutes (30 mpg) twice.

So Jrue is rusty & KP is being careful in regards to his health (he also has a "little rust" which is what I originally said).

Does that work?

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

I find this answer by Joe disturbing. Does Tatum need coddling or something that we don’t see? He seems like a confident and realistic young man, so when I see his coach saying something this markedly bullshit, it makes me wonder:
View: https://twitter.com/noadalzellnba/status/1773536456142692471?s=46&t=11SXTvIYT-tl8b6e7iEUVQ

It was about as bad a look as you could possibly get there. Meanwhile, Jaylen was 10 feet from Tatum uncovered, because the D collapsed on Tatum because they knew there was no consequence to them doing so.

It's a near certainty that when they have an opportunity to win a playoff game a close and late playoff game that they'll do the exact same play they do nearly every single time. On paper ISO is fine and dandy- everybody does it - but when it's so damned predictable, when there's barely even the smallest threat that another person will touch the ball, the Tatum ISO becomes so much easier to defend. The defender gets up in his kitchen giving him zero space to move, other players can come off their man and make any move he wants to make even that much more difficult and time after time the play fails. The book is out on how to defend the late game Tatum ISO and I think the second edition is headed to the presses. Other teams must chuckle to themselves and say 'thanks' seeing these guys try the same thing over and over. Joe calling last night's shot a that a good look is crazy.

 

[Ed Hillel]

It's a near certainty that when they have an opportunity to win a playoff game a close and late playoff game that they'll do the exact same play they do nearly every single time. On paper ISO is fine and dandy- everybody does it - but when it's so damned predictable, when there's barely even the smallest threat that another person will touch the ball, the Tatum ISO becomes so much easier to defend. The defender gets up in his kitchen giving him zero space to move, other players can come off their man and make any move he wants to make even that much more difficult and time after time the play fails. The book is out on how to defend the late game Tatum ISO and I think the second edition is headed to the presses. Other teams must chuckle to themselves and say 'thanks' seeing these guys try the same thing over and over. Joe calling last night's shot a that a good look is crazy.

The D collapses with like 5 seconds left, too, so the situation is just begging for him to move the ball. Eventually, right? Even Paul Pierce passed the ball to Big Baby Davis Once. In the playoffs, no less.

 

[kfoss99]

The D collapses with like 5 seconds left, too, so the situation is just begging for him to move the ball. Eventually, right? Even Paul Pierce passed the ball to Big Baby Davis Once. In the playoffs, no less.

Are there reasons Pierce was so much better than Tatum at the end of the game? Like, I know the margins between success and failure and miniscule. Tatum's a great and smart player, he's bound to improve...but, it hasn't happened, yet.

Some of it's luck, but some has to be scheme and strategy.

 

[the moops]

Are there reasons Pierce was so much better than Tatum at the end of the game?

According to this, Pierce was terrible at end of games. Tatum was less terrible. All in all, everyone is terrible at game winning/tying shots in the closing moments of a game

https://stathead.com/tiny/w7ZYV

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

According to this, Pierce was terrible at end of games. Tatum was less terrible. All in all, everyone is terrible at game winning/tying shots in the closing moments of a game

https://stathead.com/tiny/w7ZYV

You aren't filtering for the sequences we remember.

 

[bakahump]

Yea I am worried....the game has changed. Refs are looser and since then we are struggling a bit.

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

According to this, Pierce was terrible at end of games. Tatum was less terrible. All in all, everyone is terrible at game winning/tying shots in the closing moments of a game

https://stathead.com/tiny/w7ZYV

Dejounte Murray did ok.

 

[kfoss99]

It looks like everybody is bad at the end of games. No one is at .500, Jeff Green at the top of list is 1-8 for three.

That makes sense as it's the hardest shooting situation in basketball.

 

[the moops]

Dejounte Murray did ok.

Broken clock and all that

 

[benhogan]

According to this, Pierce was terrible at end of games. Tatum was less terrible. All in all, everyone is terrible at game winning/tying shots in the closing moments of a game

https://stathead.com/tiny/w7ZYV

FACT...going ISO with the defense dug in is a really hard way to make a basket

 

[Ed Hillel]

Tatum was a lot higher on that list last year IIRC. This year has been a big struggle, for whatever reason, and it goes beyond end of game. The end of quarter Tatum isos have been abysmal this season. I think it’s because Ds have it scouted and are collapsing more.

 

[Bunt Single]

The end of quarter Tatum isos have been abysmal this season. I think it’s because Ds have it scouted and are collapsing more.

So true. It was beyond frustrating to watch last night -- it was downright heartbreaking. I don't know why the Celtics/Coach Joe Mazulla/Tatum himself for f---'s sake can't break this approach to last-shot-of-close-games situations. It just isn't working.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Dejounte Murray did ok.

I wonder what would happen if Brad went to Silver and asked if he could deal Tatum straight up to Atlanta for Murray right now. Would the league allow it? I think that move would have league wide support.

Get it done BradTheo.

 

[lovegtm]

Yea I am worried....the game has changed. Refs are looser and since then we are struggling a bit.

Yeah, I think this is the primary reason for concern. Teams like Miami and NYK are going to mug the Cs on the perimeter and in the post. Heck, Atlanta is no one's idea of a tough team, but they played with some pride and started doing that more and more as the mini-series went on.

The Cs have enough talent to have answers, and they can dish it out the other direction. But there is a real possibility of some high-variance slugfests now.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Yeah, I think this is the primary reason for concern. Teams like Miami and NYK are going to mug the Cs on the perimeter and in the post. Heck, Atlanta is no one's idea of a tough team, but they played with some pride and started doing that more and more as the mini-series went on.

The Cs have enough talent to have answers, and they can dish it out the other direction. But there is a real possibility of some high-variance slugfests now.

It absolutely narrows the delta between the superior skilled team (Celtics) and everyone else, if the refs let more and more slide. Good experience having it happen now of course, and there are a million adjustments coaching-wise, actions, and also developing some mental and physical toughness to play through bully ball. But it closes the distance between the clear best team in basketball and everyone else, which isn't favorable for us.

I used the analogy of the Bruins slushing up the ice when Montreal or the Gretzky Oilers were in town or Red supposedly jacking up the heat in the Garden to wear out Kareem. We're on the other end of that shit now.

Hopefully this roster can adapt their mindset to dominate rockfights too. No reason that they can't. They just need to sort out how to do it.

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

Yea I am worried....the game has changed. Refs are looser and since then we are struggling a bit.

I mean, they just won 11 in a row, lost two games, won nine in a row, then lost two games. The four losses have come by a combined 10 points.

I think most teams would sign up for that struggle.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

I mean, they just won 11 in a row, lost two games, won nine in a row, then lost two games. The four losses have come by a combined 10 points.

I think most teams would sign up for that struggle.

I don't listen to Boston sports radio but I now know when its humming with a narrative based on texts and posts here/elsewhere etc. "The Celtics are totally going to fall short because they cannot execute in the clutch" (we need a dribble counter on the scorebug) feels like its trending right now.

 

[Red Averages]

I don't listen to Boston sports radio but I now know when its humming with a narrative based on texts and posts here/elsewhere etc. "The Celtics are totally going to fall short because they cannot execute in the clutch" (we need a dribble counter on the scorebug) feels like its trending right now.

It wouldn’t even be shocking if the didn’t win it all!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Auger34]

The field is the favorite. Thank you for your bold call. Glad you waited until 2 straight losses with nothing to play for to voice it.

What can I say, I am a brave and bold guy.

Just to set the context for why I posted that, because this and your last post wants to paint me as some sort of negative mouth breather, the teams statistical profile is up there with the best teams ever. Those recent teams (MJ Bulls/Durant Warriors) were at a level where if they didn’t win it all, it would have been absolutely stunning.

I don’t think they are quite at that level. I 100% expect them to make the Finals and I would be shocked if they didn’t. However, I think the Nuggets series is a 50/50 proposition.

*all of this assumes good health

 

[Red Averages]

What can I say, I am a brave and bold guy.

Just to set the context for why I posted that, because this and your last post wants to paint me as some sort of negative mouth breather, the teams statistical profile is up there with the best teams ever. Those recent teams (MJ Bulls/Durant Warriors) were at a level where if they didn’t win it all, it would have been absolutely stunning.

I don’t think they are quite at that level. I 100% expect them to make the Finals and I would be shocked if they didn’t. However, I think the Nuggets series is a 50/50 proposition.

*all of this assumes good health

The Celtics market odds are 33% to win it all. Continue to be brave.

100% to make the finals is an incredibly bullish call far above market expectations.

said differently, I think the issue is far too many of you are placing unrealistic odds on the Celtics which is why you panic at the first sign of trouble instead of approaching it from a neutral, practical stance and then assessing appropriately. Maybe DeJesus and I are used to this from our day jobs but likely why you see us aligned on pushing back against the ridiculousness.

 

[kazuneko]

The C's have been letting Tatum go end-of-game iso since Brad Stevens was in charge. I too believe Mazzulla should try something different, but he's not doing anything that Brad and Ime didn't do as well.

Well, he did endorse the strategy when asked about it after the game.
This also fails to address the second part of my criticism: that Mazz doesn’t even try to set up a play, even when he has a timeout and there are only six seconds left in regulation. Meanwhile, I distinctly remember Brad being good at drawing up creative offensive possessions after time outs. Not only have I never noticed that -even once- with Mazz he doesn’t usually even take a timeout to try to draw up a play.

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

I wonder what would happen if Brad went to Silver and asked if he could deal Tatum straight up to Atlanta for Murray right now. Would the league allow it? I think that move would have league wide support.

Get it done BradTheo.

Your tongue-in-cheek meter is broken.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Your tongue-in-cheek meter is broken.

Sorry, I missed that.

I still like my trade idea as it will absolutely end the whole "Cs struggle in the clutch" debate. And winning it is more important than another banner.

 

[Royal Reader]

Eh, I'm not sure it's a coincidence that the Celtics played two going through the motions games on the road in late March immediately after learning they clinched the top seed in the East. They ramped it up late tonight, but I think their issues on the defensive glass were mostly a function of them not competing at their fullest potential for much of the game.

Not got the stats on hand, but I recall a lot of the media slept on Denver last season because they went .500 from the moment they clinched the #1 seed.

 

[Just a bit outside]

Well, he did endorse the strategy when asked about it after the game.
This also fails to address the second part of my criticism: that Mazz doesn’t even try to set up a play, even when he has a timeout and there are only six seconds left in regulation. Meanwhile, I distinctly remember Brad being good at drawing up creative offensive possessions after time outs. Not only have I never noticed that -even once- with Mazz he doesn’t usually even take a timeout to try to draw up a play.

They clearly had a play, it just didn‘t work. I’m sure Mazz knew that Atlanta had a foul to give when he called the timeout before the foul and probably gave them the play at that time.

 

[slamminsammya]

That was such a weird game. It was ugly and disjointed. Lots of turnovers, both teams were upset with the refs. I don't even think the Celtics necessarily got the worst of it, but they were calling ridiculous touch fouls and letting hard contact at the rim go uncalled. Refs overturning each other, technical fouls...it just wasn't easy to watch.

Dejounte Murry took 44 shots. I....just can't. They mostly did a good job on him. He hit some tough shots. He absolutely roasted KP in switches, and I don't know what they were trying to do there. If Mazzulla is really going to use this game just to get Porzingis reps in switching 1-5, I don't see why I should try to glean anything meaningful from the results. I'm not saying it's the wrong thing to do, and the idea of getting these scenarios on film so they can correct stuff is actually pretty interesting. It's a luxury that a lot of teams don't have. But it's not coaching to win the game. They've played drop coverage with KP all year, and Murray is exactly the guy you continue to play drop against. Make him shoot the three if he wants to.

End of game stuff....I don't mind the Tatum iso when it's tied, though I'd like to see them run something to try to get the matchup they want. On the other hand, they probably weren't too worried about the ghost of Wes Matthews bothering Tatum all that much. It shouldn't get lost here, though, that the play they ran for Jaylen using Tatum as the decoy at the end of OT was a really good one. Tatum's gravity opened up the floor enough for JB to get to his spot, and he made a great shot. It just left time on the clock, which is fine. When you're down, you need a good look first, clock be damned.

the jb shot was a bad shot, he just made it.

 

[NomarsFool]

It certainly must be discouraging for them. I know that, on paper, they don't much to play for right now, however. These are all fierce competitors, they had a couple days to stew over an embarassing loss, and I'm sure they had all the motivation in the world to come out and absolutely stomp an objectively inferior team. But, they didn't.

 

[slamminsammya]

i actually was encouraged by their late execution last night. mentioned in the game threat that they were down four and turned it into a three point lead scoring in most of their possessions in the last four minutes. i’d also say the hawks theee to tie it was pretty bad luck on the rebound, it went directly to hunter despite a good box out. and the other team gets a say as well - murray hit a bunch of tough shots in the overtime. as to losses go for this group it was a pretty palatable one

 

[HowBoutDemSox]

Like when I pretend D White pushed me and flop out of bounds?

You’ll be happy to know that the Last 2 Minute Report confirmed this call!

White (BOS) applies a hand to Murray's (ATL) side, causing him to lose his balance.

The choice of verb there (“applies”) is just fantastic. Did he push him? Shove him? Grab him? No, he “applies” a hand.”

 

[lars10]

Posted this in the gamethread, but worth repeating here. The only thing that mildly concerns me about those two games was that the Celtics had a very difficult time when the Hawks got physical and the officials didn't blow the whistle. It looked like a combination of struggling with the physicality and frustration with the officiating, and it's something they're going to have to figure out before the playoffs start because teams are going to beat the shit out of them and the officials aren't going to bail them out.

It’s not so much ‘bailing them out’ as ‘doing their jobs’… it’s really strange that the nba just decided that heavy physical contact just wasn’t a foul anymore after the ASB.

 

[kazuneko]

Dejounte Murray did ok.

One thing lost in these losses (at least by Celtics fans) is that it seems pretty clear that the Hawks are a better team without Trae Young, or at least they are better without both Young and Murray playing together (-3 net rating when they share the court). One of these guys has to go and with Young’s defensive issues seemingly unfixable, he seems like the guy they should dump.

the jb shot was a bad shot, he just made it.

as bad as that shot was it still was better than what they usually end up with in those situations.

 

[128]

View: https://twitter.com/Timi_093/status/1773672119370403842

 

[Ed Hillel]

The Celtics market odds are 33% to win it all. Continue to be brave.

This seems low to me. They are undefeated at home against Eastern opponents this year. They should be 80%+ (I know what that equates to per series, yes) to come out of the East and a significant favored to win the title against the West after that. This team should win the title.*

Now, it's still not a brave take to take the field, but 33% is really letting them off the hook imo.

*Big caveat - There is obviously injury risk calculated into all this. I'm saying if they still largely healthy, imo they should be expected to win the title. They are that great. Every other team who played to their level of dominance won, except that Warriors team that choked to the Cavs.

 

[benhogan]

While we're making late-season trade pleas

Maybe Brad can rescind those KP & Jrue deals

Smart never gets bullied like KP or lets Murray beat him off the dribble for a winner...

#youALLmissSMARTnow!

 

[DeadlySplitter]

The market is accounting for the perceived doubt the team has due to their prior playoff failures, continued surface-level crappy crunch execution stats, etc.

 

[lexrageorge]

This seems low to me. They are undefeated at home against Eastern opponents this year. They should be 80%+ (I know what that equates to per series, yes) to come out of the East and a significant favored to win the title against the West after that. This team should win the title.*

Now, it's still not a brave take to take the field, but 33% is really letting them off the hook imo.

*Big caveat - There is obviously injury risk calculated into all this. I'm saying if they still largely healthy, imo they should be expected to win the title. They are that great. Every other team who played to their level of dominance won, except that Warriors team that choked to the Cavs.

I don't care what the statistics claim. It will be a HUGE disappointment if the Celtics do not make the Finals, as they really should be able to at least do that with this roster and the state of their Eastern Conference opponents. And it will still be a major disappointment if they fail to win the championship this season.

Health, of course, matters. Recall that health is what knocked out the Durant/Harden/Kyrie Nets.

 

[Auger34]

I don't care what the statistics claim. It will be a HUGE disappointment if the Celtics do not make the Finals, as they really should be able to at least do that with this roster and the state of their Eastern Conference opponents. And it will still be a major disappointment if they fail to win the championship this season.

Health, of course, matters. Recall that health is what knocked out the Durant/Harden/Kyrie Nets.

This is what I was getting at when I said I 100% believe that the Celtics will make the Finals.

 

[lars10]

While we're making late-season trade pleas

Maybe Brad can rescind those KP & Jrue deals

Smart never gets bullied like KP or lets Murray beat him off the dribble for a winner...

#youALLmissSMARTnow!

They also didn’t get to OT because Marcus went 2-12 from three

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

You’ll be happy to know that the Last 2 Minute Report confirmed this call!

The choice of verb there (“applies”) is just fantastic. Did he push him? Shove him? Grab him? No, he “applies” a hand.”

White clearly had his hand on Murray and Murray fell - it's hard not to call that a foul. I can't remember if JMazz had his challenge but if so, it makes sense why he didn't challenge that.

 

[benhogan]

They also didn’t get to OT because Marcus went 2-12 from three

ha ha....those scars run deep

 

[Ed Hillel]

While we're making late-season trade pleas

Maybe Brad can rescind those KP & Jrue deals

Smart never gets bullied like KP or lets Murray beat him off the dribble for a winner...

#youALLmissSMARTnow!

Murray actually fumbled the ball from the pressure, got off rhythm, and still swished it. You can see it clearly from the back camera. A bit like Jaylen right before, but Jaylen never lost handle.

 

[benhogan]

Murray actually fumbled the ball from the pressure, got off rhythm, and still swished it. You can see it clearly from the back camera. A bit like Jaylen right before, but Jaylen never lost handle.

You have to love Murray beating his chest afterward

He's the complete opposite of Derrick White

Brad knew

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Murray actually fumbled the ball from the pressure, got off rhythm, and still swished it. You can see it clearly from the back camera. A bit like Jaylen right before, but Jaylen never lost handle.

What I saw is Murray juked a drive, lost Jrue on that move, then pulled up. He never lost handle, he used a hesitation dribbble to fool Jrue. It was not good defense at all (and I love Jrue’s defense)

 

[Red Averages]

This seems low to me. They are undefeated at home against Eastern opponents this year. They should be 80%+ (I know what that equates to per series, yes) to come out of the East and a significant favored to win the title against the West after that. This team should win the title.*

Now, it's still not a brave take to take the field, but 33% is really letting them off the hook imo.

*Big caveat - There is obviously injury risk calculated into all this. I'm saying if they still largely healthy, imo they should be expected to win the title. They are that great. Every other team who played to their level of dominance won, except that Warriors team that choked to the Cavs.

If they are 85% favorites in 3 Eastern Conference series they are ~60% favorites to reach the finals and 55% to win in the finals that gets you to 33%. Add in some injury risk that’ll decay away as we get closer to the postseason and there ya go.

 

[RedOctober3829]

I think in late game situations in a 1-possession game they should go through Porzingis in the post and let him either score over somebody or let him pass it to the open man. ISO stuff is great and all, but everybody just stands around and nothing is happening off the ball. Gotta run a set to get KP open down low and let him go to work. The action works.

 

[SteveF]

ESPN ran a graphic about the Celtics FG% in crunch time at various time intervals. They excluded OT data and were using FG% instead of EFG%, so I thought I'd run the numbers and compare to Denver including OT and using EFG%. I chose Denver because they are the team universally regarded as the best crunch time offense. These numbers are inclusive (meaning 5 minute number include all the 4 minutes and less numbers, and so on):

With the score within -5 to +5, time left in 4th quarter and/or OT.

10 seconds left: Boston 12.5% (1-6 2s, 0-2 3s), Denver 62.5% (1-2, 1-2)
30 seconds left: Boston 19.0% (4-14, 0-7), Denver 40.0% (3-7, 2-8)
1 minute left: Boston 51.2% (11-24, 7-18), Denver 45.7% (10-17, 4-18)
2 minutes left: Boston 51.7% (24-49, 15-41), Denver 61.4% (35-50, 9-29)
3 minutes left: Boston 52.3% (37-73, 21-58), Denver 71.3% (51-78, 14-43)
4 minutes left: Boston 53.1% (45-88, 27-73), Denver 64.0% (67-101, 21-53)
5 minutes left: Boston 53.6% (58-109, 31-86), Denver 62.9% (82-122, 25-68)

Edit: Fixed an error 16.7%->12.5% for Boston EFG% with 10 seconds or less.

 

[slamminsammya]

ESPN ran a graphic about the Celtics FG% in crunch time at various time intervals. They excluded OT data and were using FG% instead of EFG%, so I thought I'd run the numbers and compare to Denver including OT and using EFG%. I chose Denver because they are the team universally regarded as the best crunch time offense. These numbers are inclusive (meaning 5 minute number include all the 4 minutes and less numbers, and so on):

With the score within -5 to +5, time left in 4th quarter and/or OT.

10 seconds left: Boston 16.7% (1-6 2s, 0-2 3s), Denver 62.5% (1-2, 1-2)
30 seconds left: Boston 19.0% (4-14, 0-7), Denver 40.0% (3-7, 2-8)
1 minute left: Boston 51.2% (11-24, 7-18), Denver 45.7% (10-17, 4-18)
2 minutes left: Boston 51.7% (24-49, 15-41), Denver 61.4% (35-50, 9-29)
3 minutes left: Boston 52.3% (37-73, 21-58), Denver 71.3% (51-78, 14-43)
4 minutes left: Boston 53.1% (45-88, 27-73), Denver 64.0% (67-101, 21-53)
5 minutes left: Boston 53.6% (58-109, 31-86), Denver 62.9% (82-122, 25-68)

how does denver only have two shots in the last ten seconds?

edit - misread, it’s four shots

 

[SteveF]

Remember the filters (-5 to +5). Beyond that, I don't know what to tell you. That's the data.

Edit: Also, this suggests you're better off making Denver shoot 3s late. Their 2 point percentage -- driven largely by Jokic and Murray and dunks by Gordon and Porter on cuts/rebounds -- is just insane.