Unless they get to 2. But yes, I'd prefer the "other side" of the bracket to include NY, Milwaukee and the Heat. And, I suppose the 76ers if there is any chance they have Embiid back (which seems remote).
2023-24 Celtics
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For me, the Knicks and Heat are just so physical you know they are going to wear on you in a seven-game series. Great to avoid both if possible just from a 'wear and tear' perspective.
The 2 seed is also fine. Same difference, it just increases their odds to beat the Bucks.
The nice thing about the 76ers is that if Embiid is back, they'd probably be favored to win the first play-in game, which would make them the 7 seed. I suppose they could fall out of the 8 spot into the 9 spot, but then they have to win two games before even playing the Celtics in the first round and Embiid would already be gassed.
It seems impossible for Philly to fall to 9th (4 games up on Chicago with 9 left, the Bulls aren't exactly a team on the go right now, plus Philly has the 2nd easiest closing schedule by opposing win %). Milwaukee vs Philly with a rested [out of shape, possibly still injured] Embiid might be interesting, but probably not. No Pat Bev takes a lot of the spice out of that matchup, although it's remarkable that the Sixers and Bucks have each made the playoffs the last 6 seasons (and have been to at least the 2nd round a combined 9 times) without facing each other in the Giannis/Embiid era.
Zach Kram with some quick context on Boston's crunch time performance:
https://www.theringer.com/nba/2024/3/28/24114310/doc-rivers-milwaukee-bucks-lebron-james-los-angeles-lakers
https://www.theringer.com/nba/2024/3/28/24114310/doc-rivers-milwaukee-bucks-lebron-james-los-angeles-lakers
God damn why am I always so stupid as to read the comments (below the video, I mean - not you guys)
Anyway, nice to see some love. I like how he ended the video, basically dropped the mic.
I don't smoke but I felt I needed a cigarette after watching that. Can the playoffs please start already.
nice article...(more Bucks slander please)
a lack of perimeter stoppers (with Jrue Holiday gone) who can complement Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez in the frontcourt. One only needs to watch how D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves torched the Bucks for a combined 58 points on Tuesday to see Milwaukee’s persistent perimeter weakness in effect.
While the Bucks have improved in transition, their half-court defense hasn’t followed suit. Milwaukee ranked 20th in half-court defensive rating before Rivers’s first game with the team, per CtG, and is 18th since. None of the teams with a worse half-court defense than the Bucks this season are true Finals candidates.
Prediction time: Once Milwaukee gets bounced in the playoffs, Doc's line will be "We tried to turn things around quickly, but it was really too late in the season to fix all the defensive issues", Adrian Griffith will get thrown right under Doc's bus.
Looks like Jrue is back tonight, which is a good sign, given how much time there is until the playoffs and how conservative the Cs have been with injuries this year.
Has there been a single case this season of the team rushing a guy back prematurely, and then him having to take more games off? Maybe something with KP, but I don't recall.
Has there been a single case this season of the team rushing a guy back prematurely, and then him having to take more games off? Maybe something with KP, but I don't recall.
If it is just pain management for Jrue (shoulder injury), no real question for him to take a lot of games off. If.
Theoretical question: if the Celts played Houston in the next several games (they don't), would we want them to LOSE -- in the hopes that would help bump LAL or GSW from the playin?
Theoretical question: if the Celts played Houston in the next several games (they don't), would we want them to LOSE -- in the hopes that would help bump LAL or GSW from the playin?
It would be fun to have the Lakers lose early. I don’t really care when the Warriors lose. Those teams aren’t that scary.
As Euclis noted upthread, the prospect of Houston eliminating GSW or LAL from the playin, and then knocking out GSW or LAL in the 9/10 playin...would be quite amusing. It
would "start the process of forgiving Ime".
My dislike of GSW is not nearly nearly as deep as LAL, but its not miniscule
I just want someone to do the 'night, night' gesture to Curry and the Warriors as they get eliminated.
This is my resting assumption for almost every team in every major sport in every year ahead of the playoffs.
And it should be.
But this team is being talked about as amongst the best NBA teams ever. They are incredible but they leave me feeling a little cold
Posted this in the gamethread, but worth repeating here. The only thing that mildly concerns me about those two games was that the Celtics had a very difficult time when the Hawks got physical and the officials didn't blow the whistle. It looked like a combination of struggling with the physicality and frustration with the officiating, and it's something they're going to have to figure out before the playoffs start because teams are going to beat the shit out of them and the officials aren't going to bail them out.
The field is the favorite. Thank you for your bold call. Glad you waited until 2 straight losses with nothing to play for to voice it.
I'd argue that no games after they clinched are a big test or carry much of any meaning or provide any insights into this team's playoff potential. But maybe a late season game that means nothing for the C's seeding against a team scrapping for their playoff position will tell us how the playoffs will go.
One fact that this board has to agree on - and it should be unanimous - is that the Celtics are not guaranteed a title this year. They may well come up short. That hasn't changed since the opening tip back in October.
One fact that this board has to agree on - and it should be unanimous - is that the Celtics are not guaranteed a title this year. They may well come up short. That hasn't changed since the opening tip back in October.
I would be shocked if they don't make the Finals. From there it's all bets off assuming Denver is there.
Does anyone have any insight why the refs are letting more contact go? The only thing I saw is Woj acknowledge something happened at the ASB.
Eh, I'm not sure it's a coincidence that the Celtics played two going through the motions games on the road in late March immediately after learning they clinched the top seed in the East. They ramped it up late tonight, but I think their issues on the defensive glass were mostly a function of them not competing at their fullest potential for much of the game.
This is where I am. IMO, that remove them from the strata of where they are statistically
I don't think there's much to be gleaned from the final result, but there are definitely a few areas of concern:
-Final shot execution. I don't mind a Tatum ISO at all, especially when you need to run the clock all the way down, but there's no reason to do it entirely on the opponents' terms. Have someone (preferably KP or White) set a pick, get a mismatch, then hold it. Force them to either double or get a look against an inferior defender. There's no damn reason to just stand there waiting around for 15 seconds with no movement at all, while everyone leads up on the Tatum ISO in optimum defensive position.
-Offensive rebounding will occasionally be an issue. Boston was 1st in DRB% last year, and they're 10th this year. Not a giant shock when you essentially swap out Robert Williams for Porzingis, but there will definitely be times when it hurts us, like tonight. I don't know if there's a good fix here, but a concerted effort by the wings (particular Tatum, who is by far this team's best rebounder) to crash the defensive boards is a must.
I wouldn't classify either of these as real problems, just some situations where improvement would really help.
-Final shot execution. I don't mind a Tatum ISO at all, especially when you need to run the clock all the way down, but there's no reason to do it entirely on the opponents' terms. Have someone (preferably KP or White) set a pick, get a mismatch, then hold it. Force them to either double or get a look against an inferior defender. There's no damn reason to just stand there waiting around for 15 seconds with no movement at all, while everyone leads up on the Tatum ISO in optimum defensive position.
-Offensive rebounding will occasionally be an issue. Boston was 1st in DRB% last year, and they're 10th this year. Not a giant shock when you essentially swap out Robert Williams for Porzingis, but there will definitely be times when it hurts us, like tonight. I don't know if there's a good fix here, but a concerted effort by the wings (particular Tatum, who is by far this team's best rebounder) to crash the defensive boards is a must.
I wouldn't classify either of these as real problems, just some situations where improvement would really help.
It will be a letdown if they lose a hard-fought Finals series. If they get bounced before the Finals, it'll be the most disappointing Celtics season in my lifetime.* I think it is perfectly reasonable for expectations to be as lofty as they are for this team.
*assuming health
*assuming health
Yeah, if I am trying to game out reasons why playoffs Celtics aren't as good as regular season Celtics this year Porzingis is the biggest one. He struggles with a lot of physicality, they've been giving him a really shitty whistle since they decided to change how the officiate the games, and more than other bigs among the contenders he is really vulnerable if you get him switched.
Another big difference in the playoffs I could see bringing them down from their lofty heights in the regular season is, counter intuitively, the strength of their bench. They've been destroying teams even with starters sitting because Kornet, Pritchard, Hauser are really solid guys who have played together for a while now and seamlessly fit in with their stars. I think that has been inflating some of their performance relative to what the situation will be in the playoffs. It's a little odd since you think with such a stacked starting lineup they are even more built for the playoffs, but I just think this will be one reason they don't look as dominant.
They are supposedly trying to give the defense some more leeway and specifically trying not tomake calls when offensive player is hunting calls. E.g., https://lastwordonsports.com/basketball/2024/03/24/knicks-benefit-from-nba-rule-changes/
I get that it's late in the year, but if the starters are just going to not even pretend to rebound, they shouldn't play the starters. That was a laughable effort. Like, a complete joke.
...which is fine, I know I'll forget it in 2 weeks. Still doesn't feel great.
As @slamminsammya said, the real concern is that officials are letting teams be a lot more physical with the Cs now. It's a league-wide thing, but a lot of legitimate fouls are just getting ignored now. It seems to really hurt KP, in particular, since so much of his effectiveness lay in the fact that you basically couldn't contest his foul-line jumper, or you'd get called.
...which is fine, I know I'll forget it in 2 weeks. Still doesn't feel great.
As @slamminsammya said, the real concern is that officials are letting teams be a lot more physical with the Cs now. It's a league-wide thing, but a lot of legitimate fouls are just getting ignored now. It seems to really hurt KP, in particular, since so much of his effectiveness lay in the fact that you basically couldn't contest his foul-line jumper, or you'd get called.
Yes. And this falls on the coach - the same coach who decided to not call a timeout before that last possession (of regulation) to draw up a play that might have been better than this.
I mean, the team is very good and Mazz deserves some credit for that, but it seems like he might be better at some things than others, and coming up with creative offense (or even calling timeouts so he can draw a play up) in crunch time is not one of them.
The C's have been letting Tatum go end-of-game iso since Brad Stevens was in charge. I too believe Mazzulla should try something different, but he's not doing anything that Brad and Ime didn't do as well.
They have very little practice at final shot execution, offensively and defensively, this season. And it shows.
Jaylen (& others) were leaking occasionally on D, trying to get a few free fast break points. If you recall Atlanta also pounded the offensive boards in the playoffs last year & it was somewhat effective.
The refs are giving up a ton of physicality on the perimeter, letting defenders body ballhandlers & blowing up PnR. This should help Brown & Jrue once they adjust. Funny enough on Murray's final basket in OT Jrue didn't body him once on the perimeter or move DeJounte off his line, which is usually Jrue's signature move.
KP/Holiday have received a bunch of recent rest & have a little rust. I can also see what @slamminsammya is saying about the bench. Playing three 40% shooters a lot (Hauser, Horford, PP) has helped them run up some scores.
Agreed. Tatum standing just inside halfcourt bouncing the ball/burning clock (aka ISO-coma/potted plant offense) yields a very low % shot (pull-up fadeaways are a terrible shot). We've seen it plenty at the end of games/quarters. It's especially ineffective with the new rule changes. You have terrible defenders like Darius Garland aggressively shielding/bodying Tatum the entire way. JT is usually really good with the clock/last shot, but that does lead to help defenders committing to him since he leaves little time to pass in those situations.
Boston did make an effort to post KP down 1 in OT and they got a little better look from Brown with his elbow jumper but even Jaylen couldn't get past his man with all the perimeter bumping. JB shooting with over 6 seconds left, down 1, was the correct play (progress there)
CJM/Staff will develop some counters (Joe did call TO after the Hunter missed FTs). The last two games have yielded some valuable end-of-game data.
Like when I pretend D White pushed me and flop out of bounds?
KP has played five of the last six games, so I doubt it's rust.
His numbers are way down this month and he's not getting to the line with nearly the same volume. It bears watching.
KP has played more than 28 minutes twice in the last 3 weeks.
KP and the team's use of him hasn't been nearly as aggressive over the last month because HEALTH is the #1 issue by a mile regarding Porzingis.
I doubt he has forgotten how to shoot the basketball. He's clearly taken the "foot off the pedal" (even saying so after the last game) until the playoffs. These are glorified pre-season games and KP has been treating them as such.
Seems like picking the last three weeks and 28 minutes are arbitrary numbers to fit a narrative. In his eight March games he's played more than 28 minutes in six of eight games. He's played more than 26 minutes in seven of eight games. He played 34 and 40 minutes in the two Hawks losses. I mean, is he rusty or has he taken the foot of the pedal?
This was an odd road trip with 2 games in the same city with 2 days in between. Seems like the Celtics took their foot of the gas defensively, which is unsurprising.
Jaylen stopped playing defense on 4 of the last Hawks possessions in regulation, constantly putting KP on Murray when JB made zero effort to get over the pick. When they switched D. White onto Murray, it solved the problem. I'll chalk it up to indifference late in the season against a crap team and move on.
No. Joe said after the game they were doing that on purpose to get KP reps switching 1-5. They were purposely letting them isolate KP to see if he could defend it. In real time, it was driving me insane.
I didn't hear that, thank you. It was driving me crazy as well and I couldn't understand it.
It’s frustrating that they’ve made such slow progress towards clinching the overall 1 seed, but it’s reassuring that all they need to do is win their four remaining games against the league’s dregs (Blazers, Bullets, 2X Hornets.)
That was such a weird game. It was ugly and disjointed. Lots of turnovers, both teams were upset with the refs. I don't even think the Celtics necessarily got the worst of it, but they were calling ridiculous touch fouls and letting hard contact at the rim go uncalled. Refs overturning each other, technical fouls...it just wasn't easy to watch.
Dejounte Murry took 44 shots. I....just can't. They mostly did a good job on him. He hit some tough shots. He absolutely roasted KP in switches, and I don't know what they were trying to do there. If Mazzulla is really going to use this game just to get Porzingis reps in switching 1-5, I don't see why I should try to glean anything meaningful from the results. I'm not saying it's the wrong thing to do, and the idea of getting these scenarios on film so they can correct stuff is actually pretty interesting. It's a luxury that a lot of teams don't have. But it's not coaching to win the game. They've played drop coverage with KP all year, and Murray is exactly the guy you continue to play drop against. Make him shoot the three if he wants to.
End of game stuff....I don't mind the Tatum iso when it's tied, though I'd like to see them run something to try to get the matchup they want. On the other hand, they probably weren't too worried about the ghost of Wes Matthews bothering Tatum all that much. It shouldn't get lost here, though, that the play they ran for Jaylen using Tatum as the decoy at the end of OT was a really good one. Tatum's gravity opened up the floor enough for JB to get to his spot, and he made a great shot. It just left time on the clock, which is fine. When you're down, you need a good look first, clock be damned.
Dejounte Murry took 44 shots. I....just can't. They mostly did a good job on him. He hit some tough shots. He absolutely roasted KP in switches, and I don't know what they were trying to do there. If Mazzulla is really going to use this game just to get Porzingis reps in switching 1-5, I don't see why I should try to glean anything meaningful from the results. I'm not saying it's the wrong thing to do, and the idea of getting these scenarios on film so they can correct stuff is actually pretty interesting. It's a luxury that a lot of teams don't have. But it's not coaching to win the game. They've played drop coverage with KP all year, and Murray is exactly the guy you continue to play drop against. Make him shoot the three if he wants to.
End of game stuff....I don't mind the Tatum iso when it's tied, though I'd like to see them run something to try to get the matchup they want. On the other hand, they probably weren't too worried about the ghost of Wes Matthews bothering Tatum all that much. It shouldn't get lost here, though, that the play they ran for Jaylen using Tatum as the decoy at the end of OT was a really good one. Tatum's gravity opened up the floor enough for JB to get to his spot, and he made a great shot. It just left time on the clock, which is fine. When you're down, you need a good look first, clock be damned.